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Politics
Warsh breaks with Trump to raise rates
The quarter-point increase is the first in three years.
Bipartisan AI safety talks accelerate in Senate
Key Republican tells Semafor a committee vote could happen ‘this month.’
Bipartisan AI safety talks accelerate in Senate
Key Republican tells Semafor a committee vote could happen ‘this month.’
View / Pacing the frontier is more about business models than AI models
View / What crypto taught Democrats about the AI backlash
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:54pm EDT
1
The US Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise interest rates, satisfying Fed watchers who predicted a hike but risking the wrath of President Donald Trump.
2A survey found sinking trust in US and Chinese global leadership and rising trust in multilateral institutions.
3Oil prices in China hit record highs, as energy disruptions from the escalating Middle East conflict impacted the world’s biggest crude importer.
4The head of the world’s best performing sovereign wealth fund warned of an impending pullback in US stock markets.
5US authorities charged alleged Russian agents with plotting to assassinate a dissident in Washington, DC, in Kremlin-controlled “global assassination network.”
6The European Commission invited Canada to become the EU’s first-ever “associate member,” amid a global geopolitical realignment driven by the US.
Somaliland’s president puts everything on the table for Trump
The breakaway territory is offering Washington access to its port, minerals and potentially military facilities in exchange for recognition.
The public wants a say in AI development
Half of voters surveyed for a new poll said AI is moving too fast.
A new crop of Democratic early-state kingmakers rises for 2028
Expect to hear a lot more from New Mexico’s delegation.
Kiley says he won’t caucus with Republicans if reelected
The Republican-turned-independent discussed education policy at a Semafor event.
Congress eyes final legislative push before midterms
A final vote is expected Wednesday on a bill ratcheting up penalties on Russia.
Trump administration orders Kalshi to scrap AI price tracker over national security concerns
The futures market for computer power lets buyers and sellers lock in prices, and gives traders a way to bet on where those prices go.
Cassidy rips RFK Jr. on vaccines: ‘This is not making America healthy again’
The outgoing Senate chairman also declined to say whether he’d support Trump’s FDA nominee.
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Politics
Global survey finds sinking trust in US, Chinese leadership
When discussing solutions to global problems people “are no longer asking what do the Americans think,” the survey’s commissioner said.
Yves Herman/Reuters
Warsh breaks with Trump to raise rates
The quarter-point increase is the first in three years.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Bipartisan AI safety talks accelerate in Senate
Key Republican tells Semafor a committee vote could happen ‘this month.’
Ken Cedeno/Reuters
What crypto taught Democrats about the AI backlash
Democrats see a president who isn’t popular, an industry that’s less popular, and a very straightforward election story.
Kiley says he won’t caucus with Republicans if reelected
The Republican-turned-independent discussed education policy at a Semafor event.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates today
Despite many economists saying the move is necessary to corral inflation, it would put the central bank’s chair in conflict with the White House.
EU hardens its China stance, as trade war risk heightens
Germany’s chancellor said this week that Europe’s biggest economy supported tougher measures to combat “unfair” Chinese trade practices.
The EU invites Canada to become ‘associate member’
The move would be the first of its kind, and it would transform a bloc defined by geography to one driven by values.
The public wants a say in AI development
Half of voters surveyed for a new poll said AI is moving too fast.
Justice threatens GOP showdown in West Virginia
The Republican senator is considering a run for his old job, which would pit him against incumbent GOP Gov. Patrick Morrisey.
A new crop of Democratic early-state kingmakers rises for 2028
Expect to hear a lot more from New Mexico’s delegation.
Business
Top sovereign wealth fund executives warn of impending pullback in US stocks
The head of the world’s best performing sovereign wealth fund said US returns in recent years were “close to double annualized returns for the past 20.”
Jeenah Moon/Reuters
Top US and China trade officials hold talks
Though the rhetoric between the White House and Beijing has been largely conciliatory in recent weeks, the reality has been harsher.
The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates today
Despite many economists saying the move is necessary to corral inflation, it would put the central bank’s chair in conflict with the White House.
EU hardens its China stance, as trade war risk heightens
Germany’s chancellor said this week that Europe’s biggest economy supported tougher measures to combat “unfair” Chinese trade practices.
US 10-year yield hits highest level since 2007
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended his bond buyback program in contentious congressional hearings.
Technology
Pacing the frontier is more about business models than AI models
Spending billions on a race to grow the biggest and most capable models may not be the best sales pitch.
Carlos Barria/Reuters
Anatomy of an AI-powered hack
Palo Alto Networks revealed to Semafor fresh details about an AI-powered hack over the summer that targeted a European IT and software company.
Jeenah Moon/Reuters
Tech leaders take opposing positions on AI slowdown
Experts fear the US regulation window is closing fast ahead of midterm elections, which could neglect a researcher’s warning that AI is spiraling out of control.
Musk calls for cooperation between US, China AI labs
A sweeping AI deal during US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s meeting next week appears unlikely, experts said.
New AI tool lets influencers ‘scale themselves like software’
Brands can make dozens of variants of ads recorded by human influencers with a new tool from tech-media startup Avail.
AI biotech Isomorphic Labs is not slowing down, exec says
“All of our AI models are locked down and locked down in-house,” Chris Butler, who runs drug discovery at the Google-backed drug company, said at Semafor’s Future of Health Forum.
Energy
Chinese oil prices hit record high
Energy disruptions from an escalating Middle East conflict spilled into the world’s largest market for imported crude.
Florence Lo/Reuters
US diesel hits record highs as oil supply fears mount
Executives warned that the monthslong crunch in oil markets is entering its most acute phase, as commercial and strategic oil stockpiles run low and US diesel prices hit record highs Tuesday.
Mohammed Aty/Reuters
House Democrats pitch energy plan ahead of the midterms
It is the most comprehensive energy platform Democrats have put forward in years.
Daniel Cole/Reuters
Gulf
Chinese oil prices hit record high
Energy disruptions from an escalating Middle East conflict spilled into the world’s largest market for imported crude.
Florence Lo/Reuters
Iran-backed Houthis test Mecca’s sacred shield
WhatsApp groups and social media across Saudi Arabia lit up on Tuesday with variations of the same message: The Houthis are attacking Mecca.
Gulf airlines muscle up, fending off European rivals
Nowhere is this clearer than in Dammam, where Saudi Arabia has ordered a new budget airline and an expansion of King Fahd International Airport.
Few took the Houthis seriously. A coalition is now needed to stop them.
The Gulf, Israel and the US should push the Iran-backed group away from the vital Red Sea shipping lane.
Fighting intensifies between Saudi forces and Iran-backed Houthis
Riyadh said it intercepted a Houthi drone near the holy Muslim city of Mecca; the Yemeni group denied the charge and said it downed a Saudi fighter jet.
China
Chinese oil prices hit record high
Energy disruptions from an escalating Middle East conflict spilled into the world’s largest market for imported crude.
Florence Lo/Reuters
Top US and China trade officials hold talks
Though the rhetoric between the White House and Beijing has been largely conciliatory in recent weeks, the reality has been harsher.
The US Treasury/Handout via Reuters
EU hardens its China stance, as trade war risk heightens
Germany’s chancellor said this week that Europe’s biggest economy supported tougher measures to combat “unfair” Chinese trade practices.
Nacho Doce/Reuters
Africa
Kenya to host World Athletics Championship
The announcement marks the first time that the event will be held in Africa.
Isabel Infantes/Reuters
S. Africa unveils Johannesburg fiscal rescue plan
Implementation of the plan will continue through local elections, regardless of whether there is a new municipal administration, said the country’s finance minister.
Siphiwe Sibeko/Reuters
US imposes new visa restrictions on South Africans
Washington has repeatedly accused Pretoria of “government-sponsored discrimination” against Afrikaners.
Dangote mulls US listing for refinery
The plan would coincide with the refinery’s expansion by 2029.
Democratic Republic of Congo courts US mining funds
The DRC is the world’s largest producer of cobalt, a key component in electronics and is seeking to attract more Western funds.
Somaliland’s president puts everything on the table for Trump
The breakaway territory is offering Washington access to its port, minerals and potentially military facilities in exchange for recognition.
Security
US prosecutors charge five with plot to kill Russian dissident in DC
US federal authorities alleged they were part of a Kremlin-controlled “global assassination network” targeting perceived allies of Ukraine.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Fighting intensifies between Saudi forces and Iran-backed Houthis
Riyadh said it intercepted a Houthi drone near the holy Muslim city of Mecca; the Yemeni group denied the charge and said it downed a Saudi fighter jet.
Houthi Military Media/Handout via Reuters
Colombia to resume aerial spraying of cocaine crops
The trial initiative sprang from recent talks between Colombia’s new rightist president and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to The New York Times.
Luisa Gonzalez/Reuters
Media
Inside the US Treasury secretary’s tense relationship with financial media
Scott Bessent’s blacklist starts with Bloomberg.
Brian Snyder/Reuters
Fertile ground
Flagship’s lead writer Tom Chivers says goodbye after four years.
Crooked Media’s nonprofit launches new political creator drive
The nonprofit arm of Pod Save America’s audio empire is hoping to lure younger voters back to the Democratic Party.
YouTube cracks down on ‘ghost creators’
The enforcement action targeted accounts named in Semafor’s report earlier this week.
Paid actors, AI writing: How a new kind of video business cashed in on America’s divided politics
‘Ghost creators’ are reaching millions of viewers with nearly identical, sensationalized videos that take aim at Democrats.
CEO Signal
How the billionaire Bayeux Tapestry backer gets ‘impact per dollar’
WorldQuant’s Igor Tulchinsky finds inspiration in the ‘very, very old data set’ now on display in the British Museum.
The logic behind Scott Kirby’s long-odds bet on a United Airlines deal
The gambler-turned-CEO is making the case for consolidation while trying to build a brand that passengers love.
How a ‘China-for-China’ strategy rebooted Logitech
CEO Hanneke Faber says competing in China is critical to winning in the rest of the world.
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