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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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Politics
Trump moves to ban Canadian imports
The decision to ban Canadian imports like alcohol, whey, and motorcycles is the latest escalation of the countries’ trade war.
View / Warsh has plenty of excuses to delay a rate hike
View / Oil executives are anxious about Venezuela
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:39pm EDT
1
France and Canada joined the UK in announcing trade sanctions on Israel’s West Bank settlements, widening a geopolitical rift between Israel and its allies.
2One of Beijing’s top America experts wrote that the upcoming US-China summit offers a “rare opportunity” to put a floor under the countries’ relations.
3PwC analysts projected that global AI infrastructure spending could exceed $31 trillion through 2050.
4China sent its first cargo ship along the Northern Sea Route, reflecting Beijing’s growing Arctic ambitions.
5A US startup used AI to identify a potentially devastating bug in Chinese super-app WeChat, in the latest sign of advanced AI’s cyber capabilities.
6OpenAI said its agents found the proof to the a $1 million Millennium Prize Problem, one of math’s great outstanding questions.
Rubio pushes more cooperation against drug cartels
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is betting he can advance the fight against narcoterrorism in Latin America.
Democratic Turek holds narrow lead in Iowa Senate race, internal polling shows
Most strategists see the race as a toss-up, though Turek’s opponent is narrowly leading in polls.
House calendar crunch leaves unfinished business
The House’s abbreviated schedule will punt a host of legislative items to the post-election period.
Justice Department to take a closer look at Fox’s $22 billion Roku deal
Rivals are concerned that Fox could favor its own content platforms over competitors’ if it owns Roku.
Pappas, Sununu to face off in crucial New Hampshire Senate race
The state is practically a must-win for Democrats hoping to retake the Senate majority.
Saudi wealth fund takes its capital pitch to Wall Street
PIF and some of its portfolio companies are courting investors including Blackstone and Carlyle this week to fill its funding gap.
CVC to name co-CEOs, poaching TPG exec
European private-equity firm CVC has hired a top TPG executive to be its co-CEO, people familiar with the matter said.
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Politics
Democratic Turek holds narrow lead in Iowa Senate race, internal polling shows
Most strategists see the race as a toss-up, though Turek’s opponent is narrowly leading in polls.
Nathan Layne/Reuters
Rubio pushes more cooperation against drug cartels
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is betting he can advance the fight against narcoterrorism in Latin America.
Fernando Vergara/Reuters
House calendar crunch leaves unfinished business
The House’s abbreviated schedule will punt a host of legislative items to the post-election period.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Left-right coalition seeks release of White House AI framework
More than two dozen organizations from both the left and right are urging the White House to publicly release its voluntary AI security framework, per a letter shared first with Semafor.
Trump moves to ban Canadian imports
The decision to ban Canadian imports like alcohol, whey, and motorcycles is the latest escalation of the countries’ trade war.
Pappas, Sununu to face off in crucial New Hampshire Senate race
The state is practically a must-win for Democrats hoping to retake the Senate majority.
Prominent Chinese scholar signals optimism over Trump-Xi summit
One of Beijing’s top America experts wrote that the upcoming US-China summit offers a “rare opportunity” to put a floor under the countries’ relations.
UK bans trade with Israeli settlements
France and Canada joined the UK in announcing trade sanctions on Israel’s West Bank settlements, widening a geopolitical rift between Israel and its allies.
Republican exploits divided field in Montana Senate race
The failure of two candidates — one Democratic and one independent — to consolidate anti-Republican support has the GOP candidate running away with the Senate seat currently held by retiring GOP Sen. Steve Daines.
Argentina to sue Israeli oil firm in Falklands row
The move is Buenos Aires’ latest salvo in its campaign to regain control of the UK-controlled territory.
Congress looks to overhaul sexual harassment rules
Lawmakers have pressed for action amid misconduct allegations against several House lawmakers, including Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C.
Business
CVC to name co-CEOs, poaching TPG exec
European private-equity firm CVC has hired a top TPG executive to be its co-CEO, people familiar with the matter said.
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Justice Department to take a closer look at Fox’s $22 billion Roku deal
Rivals are concerned that Fox could favor its own content platforms over competitors’ if it owns Roku.
Global AI infrastructure spending could top $31T, PwC estimates
AI infrastructure spending could exceed $31 trillion through 2050, as firms forge ahead with a flurry of data center deals.
Warsh has plenty of excuses to delay a rate hike
The Fed chair will have to guard his hawkish flank, led by Cleveland President Beth Hammack, but likely has enough allies to avoid a hike.
Robinhood enters IPO underwriting
Robinhood is among 18 banks working on smart-ring maker Oura’s IPO.
Technology
Global AI infrastructure spending could top $31T, PwC estimates
AI infrastructure spending could exceed $31 trillion through 2050, as firms forge ahead with a flurry of data center deals.
Brian Snyder/Reuters
OpenAI agents find proof to $1 million Millennium Prize Problem
OpenAI announced the proof to one of math’s great outstanding questions — although not without drama.
Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters
US firm alerts WeChat to AI hacking tool
A US startup used AI models to identify a potentially devastating bug in Chinese super-app WeChat.
OpenAI and Anthropic eye credit ratings ahead of IPOs
The AI giants’ bankers are reportedly pressing for the companies to quickly win investment-grade credit ratings.
AI is not yet driving US job losses
The latest US employment figures have failed to show an AI-driven surge in job losses, suggesting theories of a “jobpocalypse” are premature.
OpenAI implicated in another hack
A swarm of OpenAI agents hacked a German website this spring, Reuters reported, in the latest incident of advanced AI violating laws and norms.
Energy
Coal plateaus in China amid electrification surge
Coal generation has stopped growing in 17 out of 26 Chinese provinces and regions.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Oil importers less vulnerable to supply shocks than expected
“Diversification can go a long way in securing them against geo-economic bullying,” Barclays analysts wrote in a recent note.
Mahmoud Hassano/Reuters
Oil executives are anxious about Venezuela
Big Oil companies have always moonlighted as geopolitical risk assessment firms. That capability faces a big test now.
Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters
Gulf
Saudi wealth fund takes its capital pitch to Wall Street
PIF and some of its portfolio companies are courting investors including Blackstone and Carlyle this week to fill its funding gap.
Andrew Kelly/Reuters; Courtesy of PIF; Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Saudi soccer cuts spending
Saudi clubs spent the lowest amount since the 2023 buying spree that aimed to boost the kingdom’s international soccer cachet, according to FIFA’s transfer report.
Chinese carmaker ROX begins production in Abu Dhabi
The brand, which moved its global headquarters to the UAE last year, plans to have production capacity for 20,000 vehicles in 2027.
Diplomacy in focus as Gulf leaders visit Berlin, Beijing
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed will arrive on a state visit to Germany tomorrow.
Leaving OPEC won’t give Venezuela its oil back
Caracas would sacrifice political leverage without a significant boost to production.
China
China widens the scope of its polar ambitions
The first Chinese cargo ship traveling along the Northern Sea Route is set to dock in England this week, though analysts cast doubt on the venture’s commercial feasibility.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
US firm alerts WeChat to AI hacking tool
A US startup used AI models to identify a potentially devastating bug in Chinese super-app WeChat.
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Prominent Chinese scholar signals optimism over Trump-Xi summit
One of Beijing’s top America experts wrote that the upcoming US-China summit offers a “rare opportunity” to put a floor under the countries’ relations.
Kenny Holston/Pool via Reuters
Africa
Uber’s unicorn partner Moove mulls Nigeria exit
The company, which began offering new cars to Nigerian Uber drivers five years ago, is set to leave the country as Uber’s shock exit makes its business untenable.
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
Dangote Refinery sets IPO price in Lagos
The company, whose 700,000 barrels-a-day oil plant is Africa’s largest, is set to raise about $1.6 billion.
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
S&P downgrades Senegal on debt fears
The rating decision drops the West African nation deeper into junk territory and underscores its vulnerability.
Kenya’s government clarifies foreign trader remarks
Kenya’s government sought to reassure foreign traders that they have legal protection to operate in the country.
Africa should stop treating energy shocks as surprises
The Hormuz crisis is the latest in a series of disruptions that have exposed the continent’s energy vulnerabilities. The time to build resilience is between crises, not during them.
New dossier sheds light on Sudan chemical weapons allegations
Documents, videos, and text messages reported by The New York Times and The Washington Post appear to show Sudan’s military producing and stockpiling chlorine-based weapons.
Security
UK bans trade with Israeli settlements
France and Canada joined the UK in announcing trade sanctions on Israel’s West Bank settlements, widening a geopolitical rift between Israel and its allies.
UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband. House of Commons/Handout via Reuters
Australia deepens Pacific ties to guard against China
The agreement, which includes $700 million from Australia to the Pacific nation according to the ABC, follows a recent deal to boost defense ties with the US.
Hollie Adams/Reuters
Oil nears $100 a barrel after attacks by Yemen’s Houthis
The latest set of ballistic missiles and drones by the Iran-backed Houthis left dozens wounded and targeted energy installations in southern Saudi Arabia.
Reuters
Media
Crooked Media’s nonprofit launches new political creator drive
The nonprofit arm of Pod Save America’s audio empire is hoping to lure younger voters back to the Democratic Party.
Crooked Media; Screenshot/TikTok/Crooked Ideas
YouTube cracks down on ‘ghost creators’
The enforcement action targeted accounts named in Semafor’s report earlier this week.
Paid actors, AI writing: How a new kind of video business cashed in on America’s divided politics
‘Ghost creators’ are reaching millions of viewers with nearly identical, sensationalized videos that take aim at Democrats.
New Leon Black book picks fight with the Times
Bill Cohan’s new biography is aimed, in part, at rebutting The New York Times’ coverage of Black and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
Axel Springer invests in Abu Dhabi-based outlet The Circuit
Axel Springer is latest Western publisher to take a greater editorial interest in the business story in the Middle East.
CEO Signal
How a ‘China-for-China’ strategy rebooted Logitech
CEO Hanneke Faber says competing in China is critical to winning in the rest of the world.
Coefficient Giving’s CEO on Silicon Valley $40 billion philanthropy boom
Alexander Berger is preparing for the AI-fueled wave.
‘We go big’: Jon Gray on how Blackstone places its AI bets
The $1.3 trillion firm is staying bullish but investing “through the lens that this may change.”
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