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Intelligence for the New World Economy

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Intelligence for the New World Economy
Semafor World Economy

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US inflation stayed hot in August, boosting odds of a rate hike

Elevated consumer prices, along with a stronger-than-expected jobs report this month, has traders of the Fed funds future rate betting on a rate hike next week.
Eggs in a grocery store
Jeenah Moon/Reuters

Treasury yields soar to almost 5% on inflation fears

The increase in Treasury yields triggered a sell-off of Asian and Australian bonds.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Sam Wolfe/Reuters

How the billionaire Bayeux Tapestry backer gets ‘impact per dollar’

WorldQuant’s Igor Tulchinsky finds inspiration in the ‘very, very old data set’ now on display in the British Museum.

The logic behind Scott Kirby’s long-odds bet on a United Airlines deal

The gambler-turned-CEO is making the case for consolidation while trying to build a brand that passengers love.
Scott Kirby, United Airlines CEO

Activist Oasis seeks board seats at Vail Resorts

The activist investor has a sizable position and is looking to shake up the ski operator’s management.
REUTERS/Rick Wilking

ECB hikes interest rates amid inflation risks

A quarter-point increase in baseline borrowing costs across the bloc came as officials warned of “upside” inflation risks and oil prices shot above $100 a barrel.
European Central Bank logo
Ralph Orlowski/Reuters

How do you price the end of the world?

A look at the possible risk factors for the Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs now that fear about AI destroying humanity is mainstream.

European Central Bank expected to raise rates

The Iran War continues to push prices up, as Eurozone inflation sits at 3.3%.

EU unveils new ‘Made in Europe’ guidelines to counter China

Some worried the guidelines’ lack of binding quotas would undermine their efficacy.

US bond yields spike after Bessent increases buybacks

US long-term bond yields jumped to three-year highs Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buybacks failed to impress markets.

US-Canada trade war escalates amid tit-for-tat tariffs

The row is derailing any hope of renewing the USMCA North American trade pact.

CVC to name co-CEOs, poaching TPG exec

European private-equity firm CVC has hired a top TPG executive to be its co-CEO, people familiar with the matter said.

Justice Department to take a closer look at Fox’s $22 billion Roku deal

Rivals are concerned that Fox could favor its own content platforms over competitors’ if it owns Roku.

Global AI infrastructure spending could top $31T, PwC estimates

AI infrastructure spending could exceed $31 trillion through 2050, as firms forge ahead with a flurry of data center deals.

Warsh has plenty of excuses to delay a rate hike

The Fed chair will have to guard his hawkish flank, led by Cleveland President Beth Hammack, but likely has enough allies to avoid a hike.

Robinhood enters IPO underwriting

Robinhood is among 18 banks working on smart-ring maker Oura’s IPO.

Saudi wealth fund takes its capital pitch to Wall Street

PIF and some of its portfolio companies are courting investors including Blackstone and Carlyle this week to fill its funding gap.

OpenAI and Anthropic eye credit ratings ahead of IPOs

The AI giants’ bankers are reportedly pressing for the companies to quickly win investment-grade credit ratings.