Washington, DC

1. US-China truce
2. More bipartisan talks
3. Fed finalist reactions
4. GOP Tomahawk support
5. Vance 2028?
6. Botched de Blasio story
7. Crime fears drop

PDB: Senate rejects Trump’s Canada tariffs

Kirk assassination suspect appears in court … ECB expected to keep rates steady … Hurricane Melissa kills at least 29

Trump-Xi meeting ends in trade detente

President Donald Trump is headed back to Washington after securing a trade truce with China that will see Washington lower tariff rates on Chinese goods while Beijing delays curbs on rare earths for a year. Following a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping that lasted less than two hours, Trump also said China had agreed to purchase more US soybeans, crack down on the flow of ingredients used to make fentanyl, and make a “very large” purchase of US energy. There are plenty of questions about the details, and whether both sides will follow through given the up-and-down nature of the relationship. But Trump is nevertheless casting it as a victory. “On the scale of from zero to 10, with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12,” Trump told reporters. One big issue that’s still unresolved: the TikTok deal. And Trump said sales of Nvidia’s most advanced chips to China weren’t discussed.

Shutdown outlook brightens

Could the government shutdown end next week? Maybe. The Senate is likely to leave Washington today as major benefit cuts are poised to kick in over the weekend due to the shutdown and as many Americans wrestle with rising health care premiums. But rank-and-file members are talking about long-term spending bills, and urgency is increasing. “I know that there are rank-and-file Democrats who sincerely want an end to this shutdown,” said Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine. “There are so many of my Republican friends who are concerned about the government being shut down,” said Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va. “There is a good group of folks who realize we are well past time to have this behind us,” added Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska. Many senators have Tuesday’s elections circled — and a scheduled Nov. 10 recess could help motivate a deal after seven weeks in session.

— Burgess Everett

Senate shrugs at dovish Fed finalists

The five remaining candidates for Federal Reserve chair have all recently advocated for much lower interest rates — but key members of the congressional committee that will consider the nomination say that won’t change much for the central bank. “I don’t think [their leadership] is going to move the needle; particularly now with the uncertainty around employment numbers [during the shutdown], I think they’re going to maintain a conservative posture,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor. “I can’t imagine there’s going to be a precipitous decline from 25 basis points” once they’re confirmed. Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., pointed out that the chair will be just one of a dozen votes on monetary policy and that investors may also play a role in constraining them: “The markets will tell us whether or not the choice that is made is viewed by the market as being the right choice.”

— Eleanor Mueller

GOP voters back Tomahawks for Ukraine

A majority of likely Republican primary voters would support Trump selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine so the country can strike targets deeper inside Russia, according to new polling shared first with Semafor. The poll — conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Ukraine Freedom Project, which advocates for more congressional funding of Ukraine — found that 63% of GOP voters support Trump sending these long-range missiles to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while 37% disapprove. Meanwhile, a majority of Republican voters (53%) still opposes Congress approving more military aid for Ukraine. The poll was conducted Oct. 7-13, ahead of Trump’s most recent meeting with Zelenskyy, during which he rejected the Ukrainian leader’s bid for Tomahawks. Trump has since shifted on Russia with an announcement of new sanctions, which Zelenskyy hopes will be followed by an affirmative decision on the missiles.

— Morgan Chalfant

Vance can’t sidestep 2028

Vice President JD Vance isn’t escaping chatter about running for president, despite his attempts to sidestep the topic of 2028. During a TPUSA event on Wednesday at Ole Miss, the vice president was met with chants of “48” from the crowd. Laughing, he warned: “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.” But questions continue to swirl around Vance’s future, particularly after Trump name-dropped him and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as an “unstoppable” ticket. The two are said to be good friends, and those close to them insist they wouldn’t run against each other. “If we get to a point where something else is in the offing, let’s handle it then,” Vance told the New York Post’s Pod Force One this week. “But let’s at least get through the next couple of years and do good work for the American people before we talk about politics.”

— Shelby Talcott

Times of London called wrong de Blasio

A quest for largely hostile coverage of Zohran Mamdani at The Times of London ended in a botched story about Bill de Blasio ripping the Democratic New York City mayoral candidate, Semafor’s Max Tani reports. A reporter, Bevan Hurley, sent an email to an address he thought belonged to the former New York City mayor. The paper rushed to publish de Blasio’s incredible comment that Mamdani’s “math doesn’t hold up,” which the New York Post, another publication owned by the Murdoch family’s News Corp., then amplified. Hurley’s email had in fact reached a man named Bill DeBlasio, just the wrong one, Semafor’s Brendan Ruberry and Max found. “I never once said I was the mayor. [Hurley] never addressed me as the mayor,” DeBlasio, a Long Island wine importer, told Semafor Wednesday evening. “So I just gave him my opinion.”

Fewer Americans worry about crime

As Trump looks to crack down on crime in the nation’s capital and beyond, fewer Americans see crime as a serious problem — or a growing one. New Gallup polling shows that 49% of US adults view crime as a serious problem, while an identical share say crime has increased over the last year. Those numbers represent a decrease of seven percentage points and 15 percentage points, respectively, since 2024. These figures are also at their lowest levels since 2018; Americans increasingly saw crime as a problem during the early 2020s, covering the end of Trump’s first term and beginning of Joe Biden’s term. The polling is a mixed bag for Trump — it may show that voters think his moves are working, but it also may signal that the electorate is less interested in focusing on the issue.

Virginia’s Republican candidate for governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, asked a telling rhetorical question on Monday at a press event in front of the state’s Capitol. “Virginians have told us, loud and clear, that they want voters to choose their legislators, not the other way around,” Earle-Sears said, decrying a Democratic redistricting push alongside her state’s five Republican members of Congress. “So what changed?” Trump started this avalanche of attempts to redraw congressional maps. If this keeps up, the future of House elections in many states will be determined by the most recent makeup of their legislatures, a messier version of what the Senate was before the 17th Amendment was ratified in 1913. That would benefit the president’s party — for now.

Soaring costs, shrinking community services, workforce shortages, and shifting federal policies are pushing America’s healthcare system to the brink. More Americans than ever are struggling with affordability, access, and quality of care. To examine what’s driving the crisis — and how to fix it — Semafor will convene leading experts for a forum on the future of US health care.

Speakers include Dr. Rahul Gupta, President of GATC Health and former US Drug Czar; Dr. Sharmila Makhija, Founding Dean and CEO of the Alice L. Walton School of Medicine; and Dr. Fritz François, Executive Vice President and Vice Dean at NYU Langone. Together, they’ll explore practical reforms that could transform how Americans experience health care.

Nov. 18 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The Ohio redistricting commission agreed on a new compromise congressional map for 2026 after Republicans struck a deal with Democrats.

Playbook: Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, has held “multiple conversations” with a potential campaign chief about a possible Senate bid — but is waiting to see who she’d be running against before making a final decision.

WaPo: President Trump might not be on the ballot in New Jersey, “but he is one of the biggest forces in the state’s surprisingly competitive gubernatorial election.”

Axios: The US is looking to finalize and present a plan for an international force in Gaza in the next few weeks.

White House

• President Trump’s nominee to lead the Export-Import Bank, Bryce McFerran, withdrew from consideration amid scrutiny over his links to Russia. — WaPo

Congress

• Rep. Deborah Ross, D-N.C., is leading a bipartisan group of House members in warning Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick against charging fees to patent holders, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller scoops. In a letter to Lutnick, shared first with Semafor, they argue that “this proposal would deter participation in the patent system, pushing innovators toward secrecy rather than public disclosure.”
• The Senate narrowly voted to void President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, after four Republicans voted with Democrats.

Outside the Beltway

• The Dutch far-right party led by Geert Wilders lost power after Wednesday’s elections.

Campaigns

• President Trump’s advisers are considering Las Vegas for a GOP midterm convention he wants to hold next year. — WSJ
• The Justice Department indicted Illinois congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh over her participation in an anti-ICE protest outside Chicago.

Business

• Nvidia is now the first $5 trillion company.
• GM laid off 1,700 workers, citing a slowdown in the market for electric vehicles.

Economy

• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell said the path forward is “not a foregone conclusion — far from it.”

Courts

• Two federal prosecutors who described Jan. 6 as a “riot” carried out by a “mob” in a court filing were suspended by the Justice Department. — WaPo

National Security

• President Trump ordered the Pentagon to resume testing of nuclear weapons “immediately.”
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is planning to announce an overhaul of US arms sales. — Politico
• The Pentagon is forming National Guard “quick reaction forces” to perform “riot control.” — The Guardian

Immigration

• ICE agents are using facial recognition programs to check whether someone is a US citizen. — 404
• Most of the people arrested in a DEA operation against “high-ranking” cartel operatives in New England were no such thing. — Boston Globe

Foreign Policy

• South Korean President Lee Jae Myung gifted President Trump a replica of an ancient imperial crown during their meeting. Trump also said that the US will also share nuclear submarine technology with South Korea.

Health

• Pricing data is now available for Affordable Care Act health plans, three days before open enrollment.

Semafor DC Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

Emily Ford, editor

Graph Massara and Marta Biino, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Christopher Gindlesperger is senior vice president of public affairs and communications for the National Confectioners Association, which is providing candy for the White House’s Halloween event later today.