Washington, DC

1. Trump’s Iran deadline
2. The oil-price test
3. Tariff ruling watch
4. GOP’s economy push
5. Board of Peace questions
6. Dem warning to Ellison

PDB: Trump to host governors, but without NGA

White House to announce pollution rule rollback … GDP data for Q4 released … Amazon supplants Walmart as world’s biggest firm by sales

Trump gives Iran 15 days on nuclear deal

President Donald Trump said Iran has 10-15 days “maximum” to reach an agreement with the US on its nuclear program, as he privately continues to weigh options for strikes against the country. The Trump administration has built up its military presence in the region for weeks now, and while both sides have held indirect talks, Trump noted on Thursday that it’s been historically difficult “to make a meaningful deal with Iran.” The US president is said to be reviewing a range of options in an effort to push Tehran towards a deal: The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that one such option would be to move forward with a limited strike targeting certain military or government locations. He hasn’t made a decision yet, though people close to the president see an attack as growing more likely by the day.

— Shelby Talcott

Iran brinkmanship tests oil-price pressure

Trump’s brinkmanship with Iran is poised to test how much pressure the global oil market can withstand before US consumers start to pay the price, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell writes. It’s become a working assumption in the Trump administration that geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions no longer carry much risk of market blowback, given a backdrop of mild global demand plus record-high US production. Officials can point to the collective shrug by oil traders that followed the ouster of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and the attacks on Russian shadow fleet vessels by Ukrainian special forces. But the rule isn’t written in stone: As news spread Thursday that the US military had deployed air power not seen in the Middle East in two decades, crude oil prices surged to their highest point since the summer.

Trump defends tariffs as SCOTUS set to rule

Trump is doubling down on his tariffs plan ahead of a Supreme Court ruling that could come as soon as today. “Without tariffs … the whole country would be bankrupt,” the president raged in Rome, Ga. Thursday. “And I have to wait for this decision! I’ve been waiting forever. And the language is clear: I have the right to do it as president.” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer isn’t waiting: Shortly after the president left the stage, Greer signed a much-anticipated reciprocal trade agreement with Indonesia. Both moves came after the Commerce Department said earlier in the day that the US’ trade deficit had widened more than analysts expected in December, capping off a year in which the trade deficit for goods hit a record high.

— Eleanor Mueller

White House turns up affordability message

The Trump administration is becoming more aggressive in selling voters on its efforts to lower the cost of living ahead of the midterms. The president claimed victory in Rome, Ga., on Thursday, telling the crowd: “Do you notice, what word have you not heard over the last two weeks? Affordability. Because I’ve won; I’ve won affordability.” He touted the stock market, gas prices, tax cuts — and Trump Accounts, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to shop today in Texas, the home state of early supporters like GOP Sen. Ted Cruz and billionaires Michael and Susan Dell. Bessent will deliver remarks on economic security at the Economic Club of Dallas, then meet with students, community bankers, and business owners at a barbecue restaurant in Addison, where he’ll encourage parents in attendance to sign up for the accounts.

— Eleanor Mueller

Questions after Board of Peace meeting

Trump’s Board of Peace convening in Washington came with big promises for rebuilding efforts in Gaza — and plenty of questions about the organization’s long-term goals. The US president announced $7 billion in pledges from other nations for Gaza relief. He also said the US will donate $10 billion to the board, though it’s unclear where that money is coming from; the White House referred Semafor to Trump’s comments, while spokeswoman Anna Kelly praised the president’s efforts, promising the board “will continue this historic success.” The meeting covered future Gaza plans, including the area’s development potential; FIFA pledged millions for a new stadium. But those big goals contrast with the reality on the ground, where disarming Hamas remains a challenge. And the board’s relationship with the UN is still a flashpoint: Trump suggested the board would ensure the UN “runs properly” and hinted at future involvement elsewhere globally.

— Shelby Talcott

Senate Dems warn Ellison on WBD bid

Six Senate Democrats sent Paramount CEO David Ellison a letter warning him to hang on to all communications about his studio’s hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery with Trump, members of his family, lobbyists, and Justice Department officials, Semafor’s Rohan Goswami scoops. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and fellow Democrats accused Ellison, who recently ducked an antitrust subcommittee hearing on his bid for Warner, of a “pattern of evasion.” The senators suggested they would investigate any deal that Paramount might strike for Warner, which, even if agreed to, likely wouldn’t close until after the 2026 midterms. The letter was written to Ellison, son of Oracle co-founder and Trump supporter Larry Ellison, but sends a message to any CEO with ties to the White House about what oversight might look like if Democrats claim one or both chambers of Congress next year.

On this week’s episode of Mixed Signals, Ben and Max are joined by former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer to discuss their leap from the Situation Room to the podcast studio. They talk about launching The Long Game, what they learned about media while shaping US foreign policy, and how the war in Ukraine became as much an information battle as a military one. Plus, they discuss AI-generated propaganda, reactions to the Munich Security Conference, and whether Democrats ever figured out how to explain foreign policy to the American middle class.

Listen to the latest Mixed Signals now.

Blindspot: New York and Canada

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: NYU Langone, a major hospital in New York City, will no longer provide transgender medical care for minors, citing a regulatory crackdown.

What the Right isn’t reading: Most Canadians do not see the US as a reliable ally, per a Politico poll.

Beltway Newsletters

Playbook: Democrats planning rebuttals to President Trump’s State of the Union address include Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, set to be keynote speakers at the “State of the Swamp” at the National Press Club in Washington.

WaPo: “The whole idea of DHS was, it was this nonpartisan, non-controversial way to protect the country, and unfortunately, our immigration wars have now overshadowed that,” said Stewart Verdery, a former assistant secretary for policy and planning at the department.

Axios: A Pentagon-run competition called the “Gauntlet” will test small, low-cost drones and their manufacturers, part of the Defense Department’s push to rapidly supply US forces with large numbers of expendable drones within a few years.

White House

• President Trump will host governors at the White House, but without the involvement of the National Governors Association, which withdrew from the meeting after he declined to invite the Democratic governors of Colorado and Maryland.
• A federal panel of Trump’s appointees unexpectedly gave final approval to his ballroom project, which is slated to exceed the White House in size.
• Trump said he will order government agencies to review and release files related to extraterrestrial life and UFOs.

Congress

• Democratic leaders on the Hill announced that Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger will deliver their party’s official response to Trump’s State of the Union on Tuesday, while California Sen. Alex Padilla will deliver the response in Spanish.
• The White House is circulating a draft bill to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. — Washington Examiner

Outside the Beltway

• Bill Gates canceled his appearance at an artificial intelligence event in India amid scrutiny of prominent figures and their connections to Jeffrey Epstein.

• At the same summit, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei refused to hold hands.

Inside the Beltway

• The husband of Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer has been barred from the agency’s headquarters in Washington after at least two female staffers reported he’d sexually assaulted them in the building. — NYT
• The advisory firm Global Counsel, which operated in DC, is entering administration after co-founder Peter Mandelson’s ties to Epstein “made it challenging to continue with the business in its current form.”

Campaigns

• Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, alleged a blackmail attempt by the husband of a former aide who killed herself after telling others she was having an affair with Gonzales; the aide’s husband denied the claim as Gonzales’ GOP primary opponent called for his resignation.

Business

• Cryptocurrency and banking representatives discussed a compromise on cryptocurrency legislation at the White House Thursday that would allow exchanges to keep paying customers for stablecoins as long as they didn’t base them on account balances, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports.

• Beef prices are expected to remain elevated for the next few years, despite attempts by the Trump administration to rein them in, according to Agriculture Department data.
• Alternative investment firm Blue Owl Capital sparked jitters in the private credit sector after saying it would liquidate $1.4 billion in assets to pay out investors who now want out. — WSJ

Courts

• A judge in New York sided with Democrats hoping to redraw Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’ district, a decision that likely settles the matter unless the Supreme Court takes up a separate case filed by Republicans to block changes to the state map.

National Security

• DHS committed to a “drastic increase” in spending on guns and ammo, according to a Democratic report.
• The FBI will reduce the amount of vetting existing employees must go through to become agents. — Reuters

Immigration

• DHS wants to buy a luxury jet for deportations and official travel. — NBC

Foreign Policy

• Trump is considering a North American trade agreement that excludes Canada.

Health

• The Trump administration’s proposal to replace the US role in the World Health Organization is set to cost more than double what that role previously cost. — WaPo
• HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. defended President Trump’s order expanding domestic production of the herbicide glyphosate, which has been reported to cause cancer.

Big Read

• Controversy continues to swirl around an essay published in The Atlantic about a modern family struck by measles. Some readers say they felt misled when they learned the characters were composite sketches. It turns out a spokesperson for The Atlantic misunderstood, too.

Semafor DC Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

Emily Ford, editor

Graph Massara and Marta Biino, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly Prince Andrew, leaves a police station on the day he was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office amid revelations about his ties to Epstein. (It was also his birthday.)