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President Donald Trump gave JD Vance and Marco Rubio huge portfolios and has openly named both as his potential successors — putting two unlikely friends on a collision course for the GOP nomination in 2028.
Vance and Rubio aren’t exactly rivals; in fact, White House officials and people close to the vice president note he developed a close relationship with the secretary of state during their time together in the Senate, and now, in the Trump administration. Intentionally or not, though, the president is stoking future competition between the duo, and those around him are taking notice.
Both men are in charge of high-profile policy tasks, with Rubio recently claiming multiple positions in the administration, and are often seen by Trump’s side. On Tuesday — days after Trump mentioned Rubio, then Vance, as potential successors — the pair sat next to each other on the yellow couch in the Oval Office as the president met with Canada’s new prime minister.
“He just loves to stir the pot, doesn’t he?” Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., told Semafor of Trump’s dual boost for each man. “Rubio has the depth, but man, Vance seems to be picking it up fast, really fast. They’re both clearly on the short list, if they’re interested.”
Rubio’s rising fortunes, combined with Vance’s pole position, offer two distinct but not clashing previews of the post-Trump Republican Party: Vance is the heir to Trump’s most loyal base, and his Midwest heritage appeals to working-class voters, while Rubio’s blend of Trumpism and establishment bona fides could prove attractive to Hispanics and more moderate voters. Vance’s Ohio and Rubio’s Florida are both swing states that Trump turned red.
And despite both men’s years-old criticism of Trump, they are now essentially in lockstep with him on policy. That’s a positive sign for Trump’s allies, who are already wondering if anyone can truly inherit the MAGA movement after he leaves the White House.
In fact, one option that’s been whispered by multiple administration officials and allies is a Vance-Rubio ticket in 2028. (Though, as Trump said Sunday, it’s “far too early” to pick a definitive successor.)
“The president really likes JD, and he’s very impressed with him,” said Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D. “But now that he’s around Marco a lot, I think he sees how capable he is.”
Administration officials, and those close to the White House, also recognize the reality behind Trump’s treatment of his possible heirs. His eventual endorsement will likely seal the deal in the party’s 2028 primary, if he makes one. For now, the president is content to sit back and watch — but not without stirring the pot a little.
“Vance is the first name and the most important name, because he’s vice president,” one person close to Trump told Semafor. “But none of us should ever forget that Marco Rubio has run for president, and thinks he should be president. I don’t think it should surprise anyone that Rubio thinks he could be president.”
Allies close to Vance say given the two men’s friendship, they don’t see any scenario in which Rubio and Vance run against one another in 2028.
In a statement sent after publication of this story, White House communications director Steven Cheung said that Trump “has built the most impressive and most capable Administration in history.”
“Vice President Vance, Secretary Rubio, and the entire Cabinet are working tirelessly to implement the America First policies that Americans voted for, which has led to unprecedented successes in just four months,” he said.
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Rubio, 53, never ruled out running for president again after his 2016 loss to Trump, and his ascension within the president’s network began last year while he got vetted as a running mate. Though Trump chose the 40-year-old Vance in the end (after briefly wavering in favor of Rubio), he gave Rubio the secretary of state job and has continued heaping responsibility on his former rival.
Rubio is now Trump’s national security adviser (for the moment, at least), in addition to serving as the acting archivist of the US and the USAID director. Vance, for his part, is a key Trump adviser on foreign policy issues and his liaison to the Senate, where he and Rubio served.
Vance is “fantastic” and “brilliant,” while Rubio is “great,” Trump said during Sunday’s NBC News interview, adding that a successful VP might have a leg up.
Still, some Republicans are warning them not to let competition complicate the Trump administration’s direction.
“It’s interesting how the president has been using both of them in the same space,” observed one Republican senator, who said the two are “absolutely” the frontrunners for 2028. “Competition is OK, as long as the policies they are working on in conjunction with one another are for the good of our country.”
To anyone who watched Rubio closely during his early career, his rise lately might come as a surprise. In fact, some Trump allies remain suspicious of his past hawkish tendencies, but those questions have largely quieted among MAGA faithful as Rubio reorients his foreign policy approach closer to that of the president.
Rubio has gotten closer to Trump on Ukraine, shifted his foreign aid stance to align with the president’s, and long ago left behind his early work on comprehensive immigration legislation that would have run far to the left of the president’s deportation-centric policy.
“For a long time, a lot of people in the Trump orbit were concerned that Marco was a little bit more hawkish,” said one Florida Republican. “Could Marco execute Trump’s foreign policy, and could he do it in a cogent manner to reporters and everyone else? And the answer is, yes.”
The View From Europe
Rubio is viewed more positively than Vance in Europe, where longtime US allies have bristled at the vice president’s rhetoric on defense spending and the Ukraine war. Vance, a leading critic of US support for Ukraine, has argued that Washington would be better served focusing its resources on countering China’s threats in the Pacific.
Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, who was in town for the Munich Leaders Meeting that Vance attended Wednesday, praised Rubio as someone who “knows exactly what Russia is, he knows exactly what China is.” Tsahkna described Vance as a “charismatic leader.”
But he also said that, ultimately, the individual is less important than the overarching policy mandate Trump was given.
“The point is not what one or the other person is doing; the question is about the mandate, what was given,” Tsahkna said. “Of course, Vance is very outspoken.”
Shelby, Morgan and Burgess’ View
Most Republicans are focused on what Trump is doing this week, not 2028, which might as well be light years away in the current news cycle.
But the next presidential election still looms, and Trump’s not running again — despite his occasional flirtation with a Constitution-busting attempt to do so. The key perches that both Vance and Rubio occupy in his administration guarantee that 2028 “will they or won’t they” speculation will continue to haunt their moves.
Until, perhaps, Trump makes a choice.
“You can go to Vegas and bank on this: Whoever he endorses is going to be the winner,” the Florida Republican said.
Room for Disagreement
It’s not a foregone conclusion that Trump endorses at all, said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who served as communications director for Rubio’s 2016 campaign. He pointed to past instances when presidents didn’t endorse in the subsequent election during contested primaries, like Ronald Reagan in 1988 and Barack Obama in 2016.
“I think if he endorses and puts the full weight of the Republican Party behind who he selects, that is hard” for any other candidate to overcome, Conant noted.
But, he added, the bigger question is whether Trump can “clear the field for his handpicked person.”
That person might even end up being another GOP contender entirely. On Sunday, Trump noted he could name “10, 15, 20” other possibilities from the party.
And the president’s former press secretary, now-Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, has predicted that the first woman president will be a Republican.
Notable
- A CPAC straw poll in February found Vance to be the favorite to succeed Trump.
- Rubio has rubbed some Democrats who voted to confirm him the wrong way, Semafor reported in March: They’ve been displeased with his performance, and surprised that he hasn’t pushed back more on Trump’s agenda.