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Elise Stefanik is making sure that her next plum position won’t get yanked away from her thanks to intraparty tensions.
After the New York Republican relinquished her nomination to become President Donald Trump’s UN ambassador, Stefanik has two potential paths before her: remain in Congress and reaccumulate her power in the House GOP, or run for governor of New York. The second path risks pitting her against Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., who’s also eyeing a gubernatorial run — but Stefanik is subtly gaining an advantage.
Trump endorsed Lawler’s re-election to his battleground seat in Congress on Tuesday night, posting that “HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!” It wasn’t exactly a choice of sides in the brewing Lawler-Stefanik rivalry, and Stefanik declined to tell Semafor in an interview whether the president was encouraging her to run for governor.
But she confirmed reports that Trump’s allies are urging her to consider it: “I’m proud to be his top ally in Congress. We have heard encouragement from all over the Republican ecosystem, including Trumpworld,” Stefanik told Semafor.
Stefanik is expected to meet with Trump later this month, according to three people familiar with the planning. And two of those people also confirmed that Stefanik has repaired her relationship with House Speaker Mike Johnson, with whom she’ll need to work closely if she decides to pass up a gubernatorial bid to stay on Capitol Hill.
It’s vital for Stefanik to stay on stronger footing with Johnson after a New York Times report that touched on her lingering frustrations with him. If she stays in Congress, she’d likely look to get back the Intelligence Committee seat she gave up at the beginning of this Congress — and one person told Semafor that one option on the table now is to add seats to the committee to make space for Stefanik.
Of course, Stefanik’s efforts may not spare her fellow New York Republicans a messy primary if both she and Lawler try to run for governor.
Their relationship was strained but has become more cordial, according to a source familiar with it. Even so, Stefanik publicly shared Trump’s endorsement of Lawler, which may have killed the congressman’s shot at a statewide run next year.
“Look, let’s just let things work itself out for a little time,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y., told Semafor on Monday about a potential primary between Stefanik and Lawler. “I think it’ll be clear who the nominee should be without having to enter a primary situation.”
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Early polling indicates Stefanik would have a 37-point lead in a GOP gubernatorial primary and trails Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul by just six points.
While it would still be a tough climb in a state that last elected a Republican governor in 2002, Stefanik is clearly drawn to the challenge. She told Semafor that she plans to travel the state over the next several months. Party leaders have encouraged her to visit GOP-leaning counties throughout the state, including Rockland County, represented by Lawler, according to one of the people familiar and a separate source.
“We are in the best polling position in the primary by an overwhelming margin, and we’re polling the best in the general election as well,” she told Semafor.
Still, Malliotakis isn’t alone in looking to avoid a bruising Republican primary. Rep. Nick Langworthy, R-N.Y., the former state GOP chair, told Semafor that he advocated against the party’s last gubernatorial primary and would take the same stance this time, “because we have to focus and get on target for the general election.”
Should Stefanik and Lawler move toward a head-to-head, the state GOP would determine some of their fate during a February vote on a primary slate. Candidates with 25% automatically appear on the primary ballot, while the one to break 50% becomes the party’s endorsed candidate.
Despite Stefanik’s lack of an official decision, her potential face-off with Lawler is even getting attention across the aisle. The competition would be “exciting,” said Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y.
Johnson, asked about the possibility of a Stefanik-Lawler primary, acknowledged the challenges of replacing a New York incumbent.
“I want everybody to go as far as they can in their career, but we, you know, I have to monitor the map and make sure that we have a great candidate recruited to fill those seats, and I’m confident we can do that,” Johnson told Semafor.
As for Lawler, he was clear that his colleagues in the delegation won’t dictate his decision.
“They can have their own thoughts and opinions, and I’m going to make my own determination … based on a number of factors,” he said. “Who else is running ain’t going to be one of them.”
Kadia’s view
Some of Stefanik’s own colleagues privately doubted that she’d follow through with a gubernatorial bid. They saw it as a way to boost her profile after a tumultuous start to the new year, with Trump asking her to give up her appointment to the UN.
But the president’s low-key jab at Lawler, paired with strong early polling, may have changed the calculus and pushed Stefanik more toward saying yes.
After all, as Malliotakis put it, a few things matter when running for office in the Republican Party: polling, county chair support, money, and “President Trump’s endorsement.”
Stefanik seems well on her way to achieving all of them. And if she decides to stay in Congress, she seems to be making progress toward regaining at least some of her past sway within the conference.
Room for Disagreement
That Intelligence Committee seat that Stefanik would want to reclaim if she decides to build her future in Congress is likely to also come with an extra seat for Democrats.
But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said on Tuesday that Johnson hasn’t yet connected with him about that idea — suggesting that an agreement may not be close.
“We’ll cross that bridge when we get there,” Jeffries told Semafor.
Notable
- Stefanik blamed Johnson for tanking her chances at becoming Trump’s UN ambassador, the Times reported — a claim the speaker’s office has consistently disputed as categorically false.
- Increasingly, lawmakers are running against their own colleagues in statewide elections. It’s getting awkward for members in their delegation, as Semafor reported.