Africa

1. African banks target DRC
2. Nigeria coup talk
3. Cameroon elections
4. BYD push into Africa
5. IEA on financing Africa
6. African nuclear power

The week ahead, and the legacy of a pioneering South African writer.

Maurice Kamto. Luhaga Mpina. Tidjane Thiam. You might not be familiar with all of these names, but they are leading opposition candidates for three of the most important elections in Africa this year in Cameroon, Tanzania, and Côte d’Ivoire. In fact, it might be more correct to say they were leading opposition candidates: None of them made it to the ballot in their respective countries because they’re up against the legal and political machinery of powerful incumbents.

While there was never any guarantee that these candidates would win a majority in their respective elections, the fact that their electorates didn’t get to make that decision is notable.

It’s important we don’t repeat the “African democracy failings” narrative here: Each country’s situation is quite different. But as some have wryly noted, with a much weakened opposition, in each country, the incumbent probably has less need to rig the ballot.

Therein lies the big question: Is the purpose of democracy to hold regular elections sans rigging — or to ensure a process which truly reflects the will of the people? Despite the concerns around African democracy, Afrobarometer’s annual African Insights survey shows voting in elections remains the predominant form of political and civic engagement, with nearly three-quarters of respondents voting in their country’s elections last year.

The answer is clear, the results might not be.

🟡 A big thank you to everyone who participated and watched our debut Next 3 Billion on Tour event in Abuja last week. We will be in Johannesburg on Nov. 18 and look forward to seeing some of you there too. Sign up here to attend.

African banks eye DR Congo

Africa’s leading banking groups are targeting DR Congo, enticed by one of the continent’s fastest-growing economies and the promise of a lucrative mining sector, despite the ongoing conflict in the country’s east.

Top banks from Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tanzania are among the newly arrived or expanding institutions over the past 18 months, eyeing a market that produces higher than average banking profits.

“One would ask, why are you in DRC with everything that is happening?” Neema Munisi Mori, chair of Tanzania’s CRDB Bank, told Semafor. “We are following our customers.”

Fewer than a tenth of DR Congo’s 100 million people have bank accounts. In the past five years, the Congolese government’s annual budget quadrupled to $16 billion, and by the end of 2024, deposits in the banking system had nearly tripled to $14 billion, according to the central bank.

South Africa’s Absa, for example, has been attracted by a multibillion-dollar US-backed project to link DR Congo and Zambia’s mining regions to the Lobito port in Angola: “You can’t capture the opportunity of the Lobito Corridor via ‘suitcase banking’ forever,” its CEO Kenny Fihla told Semafor.

Coup rumors in Nigeria

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu changed the chiefs of the country’s top military units, days after reports of an alleged coup plot became public, setting off a fit of unease in Africa’s largest democracy.

The Oct. 24 announcement replacing the heads of the defense, army, naval, and air force services came about three weeks after the Nigerian army said that some 16 officers were under investigation “over issues of indiscipline and breach of service regulations,” describing it as part of a “routine military exercise.” Two weeks later, local media described the officers’ arrest as being linked to an attempted coup. The army disputed the reports of a coup plot, but that has not stopped Tinubu’s swift shake-up of the top brass.

Tinubu’s predecessor Muhammadu Buhari sacked service chiefs in 2021. At the time, it was regarded as an overdue response to a perceived lack of meaningful action to quell security crises around the country.

— Alexander Onukwue

Cameroon on edge as Biya wins

Tensions are rising across Cameroon after the Constitutional Council announced that President Paul Biya, the world’s oldest head of state at 92, won the country’s Oct. 12 presidential election.

In recent days, clashes have broken out between opposition supporters and security forces, reaching a tipping point on Sunday, after Biya’s main challenger Issa Tchiroma Bakary called for nationwide protests over alleged irregularities in the electoral process. In Douala, Cameroon’s economic hub, security forces used water cannons and teargas to disperse thousands of protesters, while close to 100 were arrested. Live rounds were also fired and at least four protesters were killed, according to official sources.

Biya’s 43-year rule faces unprecedented scrutiny as public frustration grows over economic stagnation, corruption, unemployment, rising cost of living and security challenges, notably the Boko Haram insurgency in the north and the armed separatist conflict in the English-speaking regions in the west.

— Amindeh Blaise Atabong

As one of Africa’s most industrialized economies and a G20 member, South Africa plays a pivotal role in advancing digital and financial inclusion across the region. With a strong financial infrastructure and growing global influence through the B20 and G20, the country is well-positioned to drive the next wave of innovation and access.

Join Semafor in Johannesburg for The Next 3 Billion Tour, as we examine how South Africa’s leadership can help scale inclusive solutions across borders — from interoperable digital payments and cross-regional investment to expanding connectivity.

Nov. 18 | Johannesburg | Request Invite

BYD eyes growth in South Africa

Chinese auto giant BYD said it will install 300 new charging stations in South Africa by the end of 2026 as it seeks a bigger slice of the country’s expanding electric-vehicle market. The Shenzhen-based firm — the world’s biggest EV maker — has been launching new models in South Africa this year including its lower-cost Dolphin Surf. “South Africa is a very important market,” BYD Executive Vice President Stella Li told TechCentral. “Once we start here, you can duplicate the story into other African countries.” South Africa, the largest car manufacturer in sub-Saharan Africa, is trying to incentivize local EV production. Volvo currently dominates EV sales in South Africa, followed by BMW, and Mercedes-Benz.  

Energy investment stalls

Progress in expanding energy access across sub-Saharan Africa isn’t keeping pace with population growth, as financing has failed to recover to pre-pandemic levels, according to a new report. Financing for new electricity infrastructure has only crept up by around 5% annually since 2020, according to the International Energy Agency. Less than $2.5 billion was committed in 2023, versus the estimated $15 billion needed annually to achieve universal energy access by 2035.

More than 70% of the investment committed in 2023 came from international public finance; however, progress in programs such as the World Bank’s landmark Mission300, established that year, has faltered. Improvements hinge on the private sector, for which African governments must commit to a “series of targeted regulatory changes, as well as incorporating electrification strategies into national planning and rural development programmes,” the IEA said.

— Paige Bruton

View: Africa’s nuclear opportunity

One month into Sidi Ould Tah’s leadership of African Development Bank, there is an opportunity for the continent’s most influential development finance institution to rethink its concerns about the “high costs” of nuclear power, two experts argue in a Semafor column.

W. Gyude Moore and Marli Kasdan of the Energy for Growth Hub, a think tank, write that nuclear energy’s appeal as a source of clean, reliable baseload power that can drive industrialization and grid stability is clear for Africa.

While some countries including Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda are already investing in nuclear research and planning, it is important for a well-regarded institution like the AfDB to step up and position itself not necessarily as a primary funding source but instead as an adviser and partner on nuclear’s opportunities and risks, the authors argue.

• Oct. 27-31: Nairobi hosts CyberWeek Africa 2025, a conference focused on cybersecurity and AI.
• Oct. 28: UN Security Council addresses its mission in the Central African Republic.
• Oct. 29-31: Johannesburg hosts the AI Expo Africa.
• Oct. 30-Nov. 2: The 11th Africa Sourcing and Fashion Week is held in Addis Ababa.
• Oct. 31: The 6th Connected Africa conference, a cross-continental telecommunications summit, is held in Johannesburg.

Business & Macro

🇳🇬🇿🇦 Nigeria and South Africa were removed from the Financial Action Task Force’s gray list that tracks countries for illicit money flows. Both had been on the list since 2023.

🇰🇪 Kenya is negotiating a compensation deal with India’s Adani Group following the country’s cancellation of a multimillion-dollar contract for the company to build power transmission lines.

Climate & Energy

🇲🇿 TotalEnergies asked Mozambique for a 10-year extension on their liquefied natural gas production agreement, saying that the project’s cost had risen by $4.5 billion since it was suspended in 2021.

Geopolitics & Policy

🇲🇱 Schools in Mali have been forced into an indefinite shutdown due to a blockade by the al-Qaeda-backed Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin militant group.

🇩🇯 Djibouti’s parliament lifted a law that barred people 75 years or older from seeking the presidency, paving the way for 77-year-old Ismaïl Omar Guelleh who has led the country since 1999 to run again next year.

Tech & Deals

🇷🇼 African electric motorcycles producer Spiro raised $100 million, mostly from the African Export-Import Bank, to expand its battery-swapping operation and raise the number of vehicles it has deployed to 100,000.

🇳🇬 Nigerian digital lender Lidya shut down after failing to recover from “severe financial distress,” it told customers. It had operated for a decade and raised about $16 million.

🌍 The US-based Global Agriculture and Food Security Program allocated $14 million to the African Development Bank Group, for the latter’s investments in African companies in the food security sector.

Celebrated South African writer Zoë Wicomb, winner of the Windham Campbell Prize for Literature, died this month, aged 76. Born in Namaqualand — a vast, semi-desert region between South Africa and Namibia — at the start of the apartheid regime, she moved to Scotland at the age of 22 before returning to South Africa to teach in 1991. She penned four novels, two short story collections, and one collection of essays, all focused on race, gender, belonging, memory, and power. Her work is notable for its hyperfixation on local South African communities, despite her two decades abroad. “Wicomb chose to ground her expansive, universalist vision in the particulars of place: a view of the local that was at once compassionate and sharply critical,” Africa is a Country wrote.