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Africa’s smartphone market, a hydropower project, Binance’s Nigeria woes, and who is Senegal’s next ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 26, 2024
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Africa

Africa
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Alexis Akwagyiram
Alexis Akwagyiram

Hello! Welcome to Semafor Africa, where we can confidently say we weren’t in prison two weeks ago. That has been the remarkable trajectory of Senegal’s next president Bassirou Diomaye Faye. He had been held on various charges, including defamation, prior to his release on March 14. Senegal, usually lauded as one of Africa’s most stable democracies, was still reeling from President Macky Sall’s move to delay the vote to select his successor. But, following Sunday’s vote, 44-year-old Faye is set to become Senegal’s youngest ever president — and the country could be on the brink of a generational shift.

Faye’s rapid ascent and relative youth suggest he could genuinely become an agent of change. His age clearly sets him apart on a continent dominated by elderly leaders. For example, he’s less than half the age of Cameroon’s 91-year-old president. With that comes an entirely different perspective that should make him more attuned to the experiences of young people in Senegal, 60% of whom are aged under 25. Some young people are so desperate for a brighter future that, faced with a lack of job opportunities, they try to reach Europe in small boats. Many don’t make it. Faye campaigned on his vow to shake up the established order through policies such as a currency change and renegotiating oil and gas contracts.

The scenes of rapturous celebrations following the election are heartwarming. But I’ve seen similar outpourings of joy after other elections, so I’m all too aware that it doesn’t necessarily end well. I recall the fanfare in Senegal 12 years ago when Sall defeated his predecessor, Abdoulaye Wade, who was chasing an unconstitutional third term. But, under Sall, wealth hasn’t been distributed across Senegal’s relatively strong economy. The hope is that Faye will bring a genuinely fresh approach. Unlike Sall — who had already served as prime minister when he became president — he is a political neophyte. That novice status could prove to be his biggest strength.

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The cost of the newly retendered Batoka hydropower plant project by Zambia and Zimbabwe. The project was initially awarded to U.S. firm General Electric and China’s Power Construction Corp, but was canceled in June last year, with the Zimbabwean government citing procurement discrepancies. The Zambezi River Authority — a joint venture between the two countries that runs the Kariba Dam complex — said it would receive bids from April next year and select a developer in September 2025.

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Alexis Akwagyiram

Ukraine is making a big push to woo African governments

Sergei Supinksy/AFP via Getty Images

THE NEWS

Ukraine is pushing to strengthen its alliances with African countries through an expansion of its grain shipments program, roughly doubling its embassies in Africa, and President Volodymr Zelenskyy making his first state visit to the continent in the coming months.

Now in the third year of a brutal war following a full-scale invasion by Russia in February 2022, Ukraine faces an existential battle to build geopolitical ties globally as its key ally in the United States wavers in its support.

The move to ramp up the grain program coincides with broader moves to foster closer ties with African nations. A Ukrainian government spokesperson, responding to Semafor Africa’s questions about plans to expand its diplomatic reach, said Kyiv intends to roughly double its 12 embassies in Africa by adding between 10 and 12 more this year.

It comes amid news of the Ukrainian president’s plans to visit the continent. “In the next few months, I believe President Zelenskyy will be coming to South Africa because he’d like to strengthen and expand the engagement,” South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said during an event last week in Washington D.C. at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank.

KNOW MORE

Countries across Africa have been hit by higher food prices in the last two years since the war in Ukraine disrupted the transportation of grain from a country that is among the world’s largest wheat producers.

Ukraine has worked with the World Food Programme since late 2022 to deliver grain to Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya, which have been among the African countries worst affected by food shortages in the wake of the conflict. This year it added Nigeria and Sudan.

Ukraine’s deputy agrarian minister, Markiyan Dmytrasevych, told Semafor Africa more than 200,000 tons had been delivered to African countries so far and his government plans to expand the programme. “We’re working alongside WFP to plan deliveries to Mozambique, Mauritania, Djibouti, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Malawi,” he said.

Why Ukraine will have to contend with facing Russia on the continent as well. →

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Evidence

Chinese electronics manufacturer Xiaomi is challenging Transsion and Samsung’s grip on the smartphone market in Africa. Recent data from market research firm Canalys shows that Xiaomi’s share of the market on the continent grew to 10% in the last quarter of 2023, up from 6% over the same period the year prior. Samsung’s market share, meanwhile, fell 7 percentage points year-over-year to 22% in 2023. Transsion stayed flat at 51% from 52% during the same period. Researchers with Canalys attributed Xiaomi’s growth to its expanded product range, and its strategic marketing to youth through social media, influencer collaborations, and online promotions. Overall, the continent’s smartphone shipments grew 24% year-on-year and hit 19.2 million by the end of 2023 — an increase Canalys attributed to “rising demand for digital services, burgeoning social media engagement, and the proliferation of ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ options.”

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Person of Interest

Bassirou Diomaye Faye

Reuters/Luc Gnago

The presumptive winner of Senegal’s March 24 presidential election is the new face of democracy in West Africa at a time of coup contagion in the subregion. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a 44-year-old former tax inspector, will be Africa’s youngest democratically elected head of state. And judging by his policy promises — which include reforming the euro-pegged CFA currency system — Senegal could be headed towards a divergent relationship with France.

The uproar when incumbent President Macky Sall delayed the initial election date in February, triggering fears of a constitutional crisis, has given way to street parties. Young Senegalese started cheering on Sunday night before voting ended, even as Faye’s main rival and governing party candidate Amadou Ba hoped for a second round.

Winning the contest in the first round and at his first attempt suggests Faye is a popular candidate whose 18 competitors never stood a chance. In reality, Faye owes his rise to 49-year-old Ousmane Sonko, Senegal’s best known opposition politician. Sonko has been the government’s loudest critic since finishing third in the 2019 elections when Sall was re-elected. His political machine tapped into youth disillusionment over Sall’s struggle to solve an unemployment crisis that has accelerated a deadly migration-by-boat wave to Europe.

Faye met Sonko during their time as tax officials, and joined the latter in politics after the political party PASTEF was formed in 2014, according to Faye’s campaign biography, climbing to the role of general secretary. Chosen to inherit this movement after Sonko was disqualified from running for the presidency, Faye will enter the top job as a relatively unknown politician. “Diomaye is Sonko” was his campaign’s slogan in the lead up to Sunday. But it will be Faye who takes the oath of office when Sall leaves on April 2. As Sall himself put it while congratulating Faye, “it is the victory of Senegalese democracy.”

Alexander

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Semafor Africa

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Tech Talk
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Binance has been charged with tax evasion by Nigeria’s internal revenue agency, the latest flashpoint in the feud between Africa’s largest economy and the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange over allegations of currency manipulation. The charges were filed after Nadeem Anjarwalla, one of two Binance staff members held in Nigerian police custody, escaped over the weekend.

Anjarwalla and Tigran Gambaryan, a former U.S. tax agent who has led Binance’s financial crimes compliance division, were named as defendants in the tax evasion suit. Nigeria alleges that Binance has done business in the country without paying taxes on its income, and has failed to collect value added tax from its customers.

Nigeria has been building a case against Binance for weeks, since Central Bank Governor Yemi Cardoso alleged the company had allowed $26 billion to be funneled through the country by unnamed people. Nigerian officials have also alleged that speculative trading on Binance has driven down the value of the naira by fuelling demand for the dollar. The company’s website was blocked, alongside sites for other crypto platforms, prompting Gambaryan and Anjarwalla’s visit and subsequent detention.

Nigeria’s national security adviser’s office alleges that Anjarwalla “escaped from lawful custody” using a smuggled passport, and said it is working with Interpol to find him. In a statement, Binance acknowledged Anjarwalla’s absence from custody, saying it is collaborating with Nigeria “to quickly resolve this issue.”

However, a representative of Anjarwalla’s family told Semafor Africa that he left Nigeria “by lawful means” since he was no longer being lawfully held. A court hearing on March 20 did not extend an initial 14-day detention order that had expired on March 12, they said.

Alexander Onukwue in Lagos

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Need to Know
Edwin Remsberg / VWPics/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

🇪🇹 Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced his government’s plans to enact legislation to allow foreigners to own real estate in a televised address on Saturday. But he did not specify the timeline for the bill’s introduction to parliament.

🇿🇲 Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema said an agreement had been reached with bondholders to restructure $3 billion in eurobonds, in a statement on Monday. Zambia used the Group of 20’s Common Framework, a plan designed to help poor nations climb out of debt, and ended a three-year effort to escape its debt default.

🇳🇬 MTN Group said its Nigeria unit is working on returning to profitability following an earnings slump. The announcement from Africa’s biggest telecoms operator followed a drop in annual profit reported on Monday. The losses were attributed to a devaluation in the Nigerian naira.

🇰🇪 Safaricom, the Kenyan telecoms giant, is planning to expand its mobile money service M-Pesa in West Africa. The company formed a partnership with Access Holdings, the parent company of Access Bank, and Nigerian brokerage and wealth management firm Coronation Group. Nigeria and Ghana will be the pilot countries for the project.

🌍 The International Finance Corporation (IFC) will invest $10 million in 4DX Ventures, an Africa-focused U.S. venture capital firm whose portfolio includes startups in Kenya, Ghana, and Egypt. IFC will make the investment from its $225 million fund launched last year.

🇹🇩 Chad’s leading opposition politicians, Nassour Ibrahim Neguy Koursami and Rakhis Ahmat Saleh, have been barred from running in the May 6 presidential election, the Constitutional Council announced on Sunday. It cited “irregularities” in their applications.

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Outro
Nicky Lloyd/Getty Images

The Mastercard Foundation has unveiled the Africa Youth Unemployment Clock, a digital tool that tracks youth unemployment data from across Africa. The clock, designed in collaboration with World Data Lab (WDL), monitors real-time job growth on the continent. It also forecasts employment trends. The trends are broken down by employment status, age, gender, and sector, with projections up to 2030. The project currently includes country-level data for all 54 African countries, and sub-national data for Kenya and Rwanda, though more sub-national data is expected to be added at a later date. Africa’s youth population is expected to experience its highest ever growth this decade, increasing by 100 million, according to projections by WDL.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Alexander Onukwue, Martin Siele, and Muchira Gachenge

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