Flagship

IMF boosts global growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday upgraded its global growth forecast for 2025, citing less-than-expected damage to the world economy from US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime. The agency raised its GDP growth projection to 3%, up from its 2.8% estimate in April, while the US and China also received upgrades after cooling trade tensions. In another sign of optimism, US consumer confidence increased in July, while a wave of other economic data this week — including on employment and GDP — could finally bring policymakers and investors some desperately needed clarity. Still, the IMF warned that the trading environment remains “precarious,” and wary officials at the US Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates steady Wednesday.

US, China near trade truce extension

The US and China appear close to extending their trade truce beyond Aug. 12, but did not reach an agreement during two days of talks in Stockholm. While negotiators sounded a hopeful note, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump would have the final say on any deal. Beijing, which has taken a combative stance toward trade talks, may have pushed for concessions on technology access and US support for Taiwan that “go beyond what Bessent was authorized to agree to,” one expert suggested. A larger reorienting of the superpowers’ economic relationship remains far off. Both sides “want to show they’re talking, but neither can afford to look like they’re giving in,” another analyst said.

UK closer to recognizing Palestine

Britain’s prime minister on Tuesday said the UK would recognize a Palestinian state in September if Israel didn’t reach a Gaza ceasefire. The UK’s decision — echoing France’s announcement earlier this week — revives the prospect of a two-state solution, and reflects the ballooning international pressure facing Israel over Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. In the US, prominent pro-Israel politicians are growing more critical, mirroring new polling showing Americans’ approval of Israel’s military operation has reached a nadir. As Israel is pushed to take a new approach to Gaza, some hard-right Israeli lawmakers are calling for a full takeover of the territory. That such an option is on the table is “recognition that Israel’s current strategy isn’t working,” The Wall Street Journal wrote.

The cost of Israel’s Gaza campaign

Israel’s blindness to Gaza’s devastation could turn its military victories into long-term defeat, with Israelis and Palestinians paying the price, two prominent writers argued. Israeli forces have devastated Iran and its proxies since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, but Israel’s military dominance comes at the cost of its moral center, The New Yorker’s David Remnick wrote, as the country’s media and political establishment turn a blind eye to the suffering in Gaza. “The longer the conflict has gone on, the more obvious the compromised nature of [Benjamin] Netanyahu’s decision making has become,” The Atlantic’s Yair Rosenberg argued: To stay in power, the Israeli prime minister has allowed his coalition’s far-right faction to effectively run his war policy.

India No. 1 for US smartphone shipments

India overtook China to become the top exporter of smartphones to the US, reflecting supply chain shifts in the face of global trade upheaval. India accounted for 44% of the devices shipped to the US in the second quarter of 2025, up from 13% last year; China’s share decreased from 61% to a quarter. Apple has quietly moved to relocate more manufacturing to India amid Washington’s trade war with Beijing. The US tech giant, grappling with competition from local Chinese players, is closing a store in the country for the first time, though a recent increase in shipments suggests it could be returning to growth. Investors will be closely watching Apple’s performance in China when the company reports earnings on Thursday.

NY shooting clouds office safety picture

A deadly shooting at a New York City office tower is unnerving a business community still reeling from last year’s killing of a top healthcare executive. Authorities said the gunman planned to target the headquarters of the National Football League, but ended up on a different floor of the Manhattan skyscraper on Monday, killing four people, including a high-ranking Blackstone executive and a police officer. The shooting, the city’s deadliest in 25 years, will force CEOs, landlords, and police to rebuild the feeling of safety in workspaces as companies broadly make a return-to-office push. “People don’t want to work in a police state, but they want to feel safe,” one private security official told Semafor.

Judge’s errors raise AI use suspicion

A US judge withdrew his decision after his opinion was found to contain made-up quotes and other false information, raising suspicions it was generated using artificial intelligence. The judge had denied a dismissal request in a lawsuit against a pharmaceutical company. If the errors are AI hallucinations, it would not be the first time. Lawyers are increasingly using generative AI chatbots, and mistakes have been spotted in several court cases. An expert warned Ars Technica that it is “frighteningly likely” that such errors have decided court cases: A verdict was thrown out in June after one party in a divorce case relied on “non-existent case law” that swayed a judge, and overwhelmed lower courts may well miss such mistakes.

People living better lives globally

People’s lives are getting better. That’s the macro takeaway from new Gallup research showing that more people around the world view their own wellbeing in a positive light: Across 142 countries, a median of 33% of adults rated their lives as “thriving,” furthering a multiyear trend of improving evaluations. While vast disparities remain across geographies, rates of wellbeing have improved across ages and genders. The Gallup research tracks a subjective measure, but the findings reflect worldwide increases in life expectancy, declining rates of extreme poverty, advances in medicine, and higher average years of schooling. Despite geopolitical conflict, climate change, and technological disruption, “some progress is being made,” Gallup wrote.

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London cemetery runs low on space

London’s cemeteries may be returning to a pre-Victorian era of temporary burials. In the early 19th century, the city’s graveyards became overfilled, and bodies were moved around without families’ knowledge, the writer Ralph Jones noted in Longreads. That changed in 1832, with the creation of large cemeteries in the suburbs and laws allowing private ownership of plots, guaranteeing burial in perpetuity. In 2022, however, the Parliament allowed Highgate Cemetery — home to Karl Marx — the right to disturb human remains after 75 years due to space constraints. Relocations will be sensitively done — not quite a “‘people are digging up your mother’ situation,” one cemetery expert told Jones — but eternal rest may be less eternal in future.

US fury reorients Canada politics

Margaret Atwood famously called the US’ northern border the world’s longest one-way mirror: Canadians obsess over US politics and culture, while Americans look north and see an extension of themselves. That’s been particularly true this year, as US President Donald Trump’s threats and taunts reoriented Canadian politics toward anti-US fury. The resentment seeped into culture and business, New York Magazine wrote. Canadians boycotted American goods and booked fewer US vacations. The acrimony could be resolved if the Washington-Ottawa relationship had more vocal advocates, the US ambassador to Canada recently suggested. Flagship has identified some contenders: A two-mile bridge connecting Michigan to Ontario, or a rumored romance between former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and pop star Katy Perry.

July 30:

• Singapore’s central bank announces its latest monetary policy statement.
• Microsoft, Mercedes-Benz, and Airbus report earnings.
• Penguin marks the 90th anniversary of its first paperback editions.

A real-time public restoration of a 19th-century masterpiece has become a hit attraction in France. Every Thursday morning at Paris’ Musée d’Orsay, visitors with a free reservation can take a guided tour to witness the ongoing restoration of Gustave Courbet’s A Burial at Ornans, which was donated to the French state in 1881 and is undergoing its first major touch-ups in more than 130 years. Expected to last from a year to 15 months, the project entails three painstaking phases, which typically would have been carried out behind closed doors. “It’s fascinating,” one visitor told Le Monde. “It made me want to come back in the coming months to see how the project is progressing.”

Sen. Cory Booker has a new job in the Democratic caucus: getting a party that he believes relies too much on traditional print and TV outlets to become extremely online, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reported.

“We lost young people, and young men in particular” in the last election, said Booker, who offers tips to colleagues for getting more likes and comments on their posts. “A lot of that was because we weren’t on the platforms that they show up on.”

“He’ll call me up or text me and say, ‘Hey, you did this on social,’” Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., told Semafor. “‘But if you do that, you know you’ll get more engagement.’”