• D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG

Intelligence for the New World Economy

  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
Semafor Logo
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG


US layoffs surge, Microsoft plans for ‘humanist’ superintelligence, and researchers create ‘Google M͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
thunderstorms ALMETYEVSK
cloudy GUANGZHOU
thunderstorms DARWIN
rotating globe
November 7, 2025
semafor

Flagship

Flagship
Sign up for our free email briefings
 

The World Today

Semafor World Today map
  1. US layoffs surge
  2. AI stocks face pressure
  3. ‘Humanist’ superintelligence
  4. Musk’s $1T pay approved
  5. Trump strikes GLP-1 deal
  6. US’ maritime vulnerability
  7. Sanctions shake India oil trade
  8. Free solar in Australia
  9. Fraudulent psychology work
  10. Mapping ancient Roman roads

Homer’s rare watercolors on display, and Asian rappers lean into ‘Orientalism chic.’

1

US layoffs pile up

Chart showing monthly US layoffs since 2024

US layoffs surged in October, pushing this year’s job cuts to levels normally seen in a recession. The new figures from a consulting firm fuel concerns about a labor market slowdown in the absence of official government data; the 1.1 million layoffs this year include reductions at large firms including UPS, Amazon, and Target. While many companies cited AI as a reason for the cuts, some analysts said employers may be “AI-washing” — blaming the technology “to cover up business fumbles and old-fashioned cost cutting,” CNBC reported. Another explanation is that sectors that went on a post-pandemic hiring spree are now scaling back, The Economist wrote: The “pull-back looks less like AI upheaval than a return to normal.”

PostEmail
2

AI stocks are tumbling

Chart showing three-month stock performance of Microsoft, Oracle, Nvidia, and Palantir

AI stocks continued falling Thursday as concerns mounted over the billions companies are pouring into data centers. The AI trade, especially AI infrastructure, has shaped the US economy this year — “Rarely, if ever, has a single technology absorbed this much money this quickly,” WIRED wrote — but investors are increasingly skeptical of the high valuations of AI-linked companies. Deutsche Bank is discussing ways to hedge its exposure to data centers, the Financial Times reported, while an OpenAI executive’s comments suggesting a possible federal “backstop” for its infrastructure commitments prompted a White House adviser to reject “AI bailouts”; OpenAI’s Sam Altman later clarified the company doesn’t want government guarantees for data centers, and “if we get it wrong, that’s on us.”

PostEmail
3

‘Humanist’ approach to superintelligence

Mustafa Suleyman
Denis Balibouse/Reuters

Microsoft is joining the race for superintelligence, but the company plans to ensure humans stay in charge of the technology at the expense of maximum capability. Microsoft’s push comes as OpenAI and Meta also rush to develop a new form of advanced AI, even as prominent figures have called for a ban on such efforts. Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman told Semafor’s Reed Albergotti that the company is focusing on “humanist superintelligence” instead of accelerating at all costs: It’s “a very tough tradeoff,” but the alternative is “a crazy suicide mission,” Suleyman said. AI critics will be skeptical of Microsoft’s ability to keep that promise, Albergotti wrote, but Microsoft’s customers “would be happy with average intelligence with superhuman reliability.”

PostEmail
4

Tesla shareholders approve Musk pay

Tesla CEO Elon Musk attends a memorial service for slain conservative commentator Charlie Kirk at State Farm Stadium.
Daniel Cole/Reuters

Tesla shareholders approved CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package Thursday. The proposal, which requires Musk to grow the EV giant’s valuation and hit certain production goals like vehicle deliveries, overwhelmingly passed despite an unusual amount of resistance, The Washington Post reported. Critics said the milestones are too weak, and that Musk is distracted by side ventures. Musk argued, however, that he “drove [Tesla] to where it is and without me it’s going to fail,” one expert summarized. The pay deal is set to shepherd in a new era of executive compensation, and comes at a pivotal time for Tesla: Profits have fallen amid its challenges in Europe and China.

PostEmail
5

Trump strikes GLP-1 price deal

Chart showing share of US adults using GLP-1 drugs and why

US President Donald Trump on Thursday announced deals to lower the cost of weight loss drugs Wegovy and Zepbound, a move that could vastly expand access to the blockbuster medications. The agreements with pharma giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk could bring the price of the GLP-1 injectables from roughly $1,350 to $149 per month. The US health secretary estimated that because of the lower costs, Americans could lose a collective 125 million pounds by next November. The benefits of GLP-1 drugs go beyond weight loss: Experts say they reduce spending on fast food and processed snacks, and studies have shown they can improve heart health.

PostEmail
6

US lags China on shipping, logistics

Chinese destroyers
Stringer/Reuters

China’s dominance in maritime logistics is a threat to the US’ economic and national security, analysts argued. China operates the world’s largest cargo fleets and the biggest navy; it built as many as 1,700 oceangoing vessels last year; the US built five. Once the world’s shipbuilding powerhouse, the US now “depends on Beijing’s fleet to deliver everything from food and medicines to electronics,” a trade expert noted. This “unglamorous” matter of logistics is the US’ “weakest link” in deterring China in any conflict, experts argued in Breaking Defense. US President Donald Trump said he wants “more ships faster,” but it will take Washington “years of skillful statecraft… to restore some measure of parity with China,” Semafor’s Andy Browne wrote.

For more on US-China competition, subscribe to Semafor’s forthcoming China briefing.  →

PostEmail
7

Sanctions shake up Indian oil sector

Pumpjacks in Almetyevsk
Alexander Manzyuk/Reuters

New US sanctions on Russian oil are shaking up India’s energy trade. Moscow’s fuel exports to India have plunged since Washington announced restrictions on two Russian oil giants last month, and discounts on Russian crude have reached their steepest point in a year in Asia. Following the sanctions, large Indian refiner Reliance Industries snapped up millions of barrels from the Middle East and the US and, in a rare move, is reportedly trying to resell Mideast crude. The upheaval reflects how the Ukraine war and subsequent Western sanctions created an “energy nexus” between Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi, transforming the “energy trade into a platform for political alignment,” a scholar wrote in East Asia Forum.

PostEmail
Live Journalism
Semafor Live Journalism graphic

The Secretary of Health for Maryland, Meena Seshamani, M.D., Ph.D., will join the stage at The Future of Health Forum in Washington, DC on November 18, 2025.

As discussions continue around federal programs such as the ACA subsidies extended under the 2021 Inflation Reduction Act, Americans are confronting rising healthcare costs, shrinking community services, and persistent workforce shortages. Affordability, access, and quality of care remain more urgent concerns than ever. To explore the factors shaping this moment — and potential solutions — Semafor will convene leading experts for a forum on the future of US health care.

Nov. 18 | Washington, DC | RSVP →

PostEmail
8

Australia offers free solar to millions

Chart showing share of electricity production from solar

Australians will get three hours of free solar electricity a day, even if they don’t have solar panels. The “Solar Sharer” program, set to launch in parts of the country before expanding elsewhere, will offer free energy during high-supply periods in the middle of the day, encouraging residents to make discretionary energy uses — such as charging cars or using tumble dryers — during those times. The cost of solar capacity fell by about 90% in the last decade, but it remains intermittent, meaning supply must be smoothed out with batteries or alternative sources such as fossil fuels or nuclear. Canberra’s move addresses the other end of the problem, attempting to align demand with periods of greatest supply and reducing the need for smoothing.

PostEmail
9

Classic psych work fraudulent

A classic psychology work, the basis for the idea of “cognitive dissonance,” has been shown to be fraudulent. When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger described a cult that purportedly believed it would be saved by aliens on Dec. 20, 1954. Festinger claimed that after that date, the group — instead of accepting they were wrong — doubled down, and started to proselytize more strongly. Festinger’s arguments essentially created the concept of cognitive dissonance. But a new paper shows that the group dissolved soon after the failed prophecy, and that Festinger falsified the subsequent events. It follows the Stanford Prison Experiment, the “On Being Sane in Insane Places” study, and several other foundational works of psychology that have been shown to be fraudulent.

PostEmail
10

‘Google Maps for Roman roads’

The Appian Way
Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

Researchers said they created a “Google Maps for Roman roads” after mapping the entire 185,896-mile ancient road network. Archeologists used historical records, maps, and satellite images to trace the complex system as it was in AD 150, at the peak of the western Roman Empire. At the time, the empire encompassed 55 million people and stretched from what is now northern Britain to Egypt and Syria. The findings nearly double the known length of Roman roads, Nature reported, especially in the Iberian peninsula, Greece, and North Africa, suggesting Rome’s dominions were more interconnected than previously thought. Roads were crucial to the empire, speeding the flow of information, people, and goods, and allowing Rome to project its power effectively.

PostEmail
Semafor View

US President Donald Trump won’t join 53 other world leaders in Brazil to kick off the COP30 climate summit, but he’ll loom over the gathering nonetheless.

During the Obama and Biden administrations, the US used its bully pulpit to drag more recalcitrant countries like China and the Gulf petrostates to the table and sign them on to promises to cut carbon. This time around, there is more ideological animosity toward clean energy and climate action both within the administration and among top Congressional Republicans than ever.

The potential international fallout from that attitude came through in a recent meeting of the International Maritime Organization, when US officials successfully campaigned to kill plans to impose a carbon fee on shipping. Some COP participants have told me they fear a repeat performance in Brazil.

This originally appeared in Semafor Energy — Subscribe for more insights on the energy transition from the undercovered nexus of tech, money, and geopolitics. →

PostEmail
Flagging

Nov. 7:

  • US President Donald Trump hosts Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at the White House.
  • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum hosts French President Emmanuel Macron to discuss the repatriation of pre-Hispanic codices.
  • The 2025 Islamic Solidarity Games, featuring nearly two dozen sports and 57 participating nations, kick off in Riyadh.
PostEmail
Substack Rojak

Rojak is a colloquial Malay word for “eclectic mix,” and is the name for a Javanese dish that typically combines sliced fruit and vegetables with a spicy dressing. In this recurring Flagship feature, we highlight the best newsletter writing from and about Asia.

The geopolitics of rap

Asian singers and rappers seeking global success are no longer driven by Western recognition, and are instead leaning into “Orientalism chic.” In the 2010s, Asian artists often replicated their American counterparts; rappers, for example, mimicked flows and aesthetics that originated in Atlanta. Culturally and geopolitically, there was a sense that music could be a global bridge, and that “‘Asian culture’… was not all that different from Western culture,” Patrick Kho wrote in his newsletter, The Chow.

That dynamic changed as globalization-inspired optimism dimmed and US-China ties grew more tense. Asian artists are no longer emulating American styles, and are instead reclaiming depictions that would’ve once been considered “Orientalist” or stereotypical — think chopsticks, Fu Manchu mustaches, luxury city-kid lifestyles. “The old game of assimilation is no longer the meta,” Kho argued. “They must lean into difference, and recognize they are operating in a different world entirely.”

Knocking on wood

Modern Chinese artists are integrating historic woodblock printing traditions into their album covers. The technique, in which a design is carved into wood, began during the Tang Dynasty on Buddhist scriptures, and was later used for books. The rise of the mechanical printing press overshadowed woodblock printing, but it saw a political and revolutionary revival in the 1930s during the Chinese Civil War.

Today, China’s alternative music scene is leaning into the aesthetic, Rachel Cabitt wrote in her newsletter, The Art of Cover Art, alongside music writer Jake Newby. As one label executive noted, woodcut “shares a similar spirit with the cassette tape as a medium for recorded music: a sense of rawness in visual/sonic textures, the rich physicality, and space for a certain degree of amateurism and experimentation.”

Idolatry

Japanese pop idols don’t make a killing despite generating millions in revenue for their record labels. Take it from a former idol herself. Amina Green, who was once part of Japanese girl group Chic Girls, revealed the payment structures that often leave singers with limited bargaining power. Some pop stars receive fixed salaries from their labels that also cover housing and training; others split gig revenue among the group’s members.

Some call these models exploitative. Green defended the pay structures, noting they’re better than the situation struggling artists face — but said the real issue is that stars are unable to negotiate much. Even if a group makes lots of money, their payment might not change. It reflects how artists are often used as mere marketing mechanisms for profit-focused businesses. “Similar to Western influencers, Japanese and Korean idols make money because their job isn’t to sing,” Green wrote. “The job of an idol is to form a parasocial relationship with the targeted consumer audience.”

PostEmail
Curio
Winslow Homer, “The Dory,” (1887). Hayden Collection via MFA, Boston
Winslow Homer, “The Dory,” (1887). Hayden Collection via MFA, Boston

A master of 19th-century American painting is getting his largest watercolors exhibition in nearly 50 years. Boston’s Museum of Fine Arts acquired in 1894 its first work by Winslow Homer, the existential Fog Warning, while he was at the height of his success. The museum would eventually add another 10 oil paintings and almost 50 watercolors — including childhood drawings and his final, unfinished work — making it uniquely suited to staging Of Light and Air. Rarely exhibited, Homer’s watercolors convey “more immediate and observational” themes than his dramatic oil works, the show’s co-curators told The Art Newspaper, and, displayed in a low-light setting to protect against fading, “look nearly as vibrant as the day Homer painted them.”

PostEmail