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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 7:05am EDT
1
Top AI pioneers Paul Christiano and Geoffrey Hinton backed an Anthropic researcher’s warning of potential human extinction.
2Trump promised to give every American $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress in November’s midterms, with the GOP polling poorly.
3President Trump said the Iran war would end “immediately” after November’s midterm election, contradicting the analysis of experts and his closest advisors.
4Chinese inflation accelerated for the first time in months, piling on pressure as flagging domestic spending continues to hamper the economy.
5The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates, with the Iran war still pushing prices up.
6US long-term bond yields spiked to three-year highs after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buybacks failed to impress markets.
Bipartisan AI safety bill gains momentum on the Hill
An AI safety bill may be introduced by senators from both parties as early as next week.
Giffords launches $10 million midterm blitz
A gun safety group founded by former Rep. Gabby Giffords, D-Ariz., is launching a $10 million ad blitz against Republicans in three crucial races.
‘We all agree that big government is bad, but…’: White House shrugs off Republican clashes over childcare
The still-unreleased plan has opened a divide over the party’s philosophy and raised questions about its effectiveness.
Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala takes stake in China’s Luckin coffee with $1B deal
Private equity firm Centurium Capital has contributed to the $1 billion investment alongside Mudabadala’s minority stake into China’s Luckin Coffee.
Sitting RNC member breaks with Trump on data centers
An anti-data center bus tour traversing key midterm states will add another complication for Republican candidates in tight races.
Trump moves to ban Canadian imports
The decision to ban Canadian imports like alcohol, whey, and motorcycles is the latest escalation of the countries’ trade war.
Left-right coalition seeks release of White House AI framework
More than two dozen organizations from both the left and right are urging the White House to publicly release its voluntary AI security framework, per a letter shared first with Semafor.
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Politics
AI loses a Dallas debate
Frontier technology is dividing the right
Reuters
Trump adviser warns time running out on crypto bill
Semafor sat down with Patrick Witt, executive director of Trump’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, as lawmakers prepare to consider the industry’s top legislative priority.
Trump sees end to Iran war “immediately” after midterm elections
Top White House officials have reportedly told Trump that Iran would resist the US blockade through the rest of his term to Inauguration Day in Jan. 2029.
US Central Command/Handout via Reuters.
Trump pledges $5,000 voter payout if Republicans win the midterms
Trump’s unpopularity has weighed heavily on his party’s chances of retaining a majority.
Bipartisan AI safety bill gains momentum on the Hill
An AI safety bill may be introduced by senators from both parties as early as next week.
Giffords launches $10 million midterm blitz
A gun safety group founded by former Rep. Gabby Giffords, D-Ariz., is launching a $10 million ad blitz against Republicans in three crucial races.
Sitting RNC member breaks with Trump on data centers
An anti-data center bus tour traversing key midterm states will add another complication for Republican candidates in tight races.
Republicans kick off ‘Trump-a-Palooza’ midterm convention
The Republican Party kicked off its first-ever midterm convention in Dallas Wednesday, as party figures bet President Donald Trump’s center-stage performance can lift their fortunes despite his record-low approval ratings.
‘We all agree that big government is bad, but…’: White House shrugs off Republican clashes over childcare
The still-unreleased plan has opened a divide over the party’s philosophy and raised questions about its effectiveness.
Treasury to buy back triple the bonds
The Treasury Department will buy back up to three times its usual amount of long-term debt tomorrow as the Trump administration continues trying to bring borrowing costs down.
Candidates contend with the rise of ‘resurfaced’ old clips
Candidates who think they’ve escaped or explained their pasts keep having to explain comments that “resurface” online.
Business
European Central Bank expected to raise rates
The Iran War continues to push prices up, as Eurozone inflation sits at 3.3%.
Kai Pfaffenbach/Reuters
EU unveils new ‘Made in Europe’ guidelines to counter China
Some worried the guidelines’ lack of binding quotas would undermine their efficacy.
US bond yields spike after Bessent increases buybacks
US long-term bond yields jumped to three-year highs Wednesday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buybacks failed to impress markets.
US-Canada trade war escalates amid tit-for-tat tariffs
The row is derailing any hope of renewing the USMCA North American trade pact.
CVC to name co-CEOs, poaching TPG exec
European private-equity firm CVC has hired a top TPG executive to be its co-CEO, people familiar with the matter said.
Technology
Top AI pioneers reaffirm Anthropic researcher’s human extinction warning
Author Paul Christiano said he now sees “meaningful risk” of “catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term.”
Pontus Lundahl/TT News Agency/Reuters
Anthropic skirts UK safety review amid rising AI transparency concerns
Anthropic declined to submit its latest model for testing to a top British AI safety institute.
Priyanshu Singh/Reuters
AI researcher Andrew Tulloch is leaving Meta
Tulloch has been delaying his departure until the company successfully launched its new family of open source AI models and AI assistant, Muse.
Why we can’t rely on governments to handle AI safety
The episode goes to show that “cyber vulnerabilities don’t map neatly onto state borders,” US-China tech expert Samm Sacks told Semafor.
China makes enterprise push for AI glasses
As smart glasses tick up in popularity in China, the government has issued an industry code of conduct.
Meta launches Muse AI assistant
Think of it like a computer sitting on Meta’s servers that connects to and can control your email, your calendar, or your health information when you give it commands.
Energy
Coal plateaus in China amid electrification surge
Coal generation has stopped growing in 17 out of 26 Chinese provinces and regions.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Oil importers less vulnerable to supply shocks than expected
“Diversification can go a long way in securing them against geo-economic bullying,” Barclays analysts wrote in a recent note.
Mahmoud Hassano/Reuters
Oil executives are anxious about Venezuela
Big Oil companies have always moonlighted as geopolitical risk assessment firms. That capability faces a big test now.
Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters
Gulf
Authorities in Kuwait are flattening vehicles seized from crime
The practice, which destroys tankers that could be used to ferry valuable crude, follows Qatar, which began crushing cars seized through reckless driving two years ago.
A tanker crushed by Kuwait’s interior ministry. Courtesy of Kuwait News Agency.
Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala takes stake in China’s Luckin coffee with $1B deal
Private equity firm Centurium Capital has contributed to the $1 billion investment alongside Mudabadala’s minority stake into China’s Luckin Coffee.
Gulf corporate profits in second quarter show growing divide between economies
Listed companies in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are growing quickly, benefiting from higher oil prices and their ability to keep energy exports flowing.
Netanyahu denies he ignored UAE’s warning ahead of Oct. 7 attacks
The Israeli prime minister threatened to sue Haaretz over its report that he ignored the UAE president’s explicit warning about Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks.
Hostilities between Saudi and Houthi rebels escalate in Yemen
Houthi rebels said Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in Yemen, as hostilities between Riyadh and the Iran-backed militia escalate toward all-out war.
China
EU unveils new ‘Made in Europe’ guidelines to counter China
Some worried the guidelines’ lack of binding quotas would undermine their efficacy.
Flavio Lo Scalzo/Reuters
US ramps up China rhetoric ahead of upcoming meeting
The US Treasury secretary warned that “nothing else would matter” if China were to win the AI race.
Sam Wolfe/File Photo/Reuters
China widens the scope of its polar ambitions
The first Chinese cargo ship traveling along the Northern Sea Route is set to dock in England this week, though analysts cast doubt on the venture’s commercial feasibility.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Africa
South Africa’s GDP shrank in Q2 2026
The impact of the Iran war ended an 18-month period of growth in Africa’s biggest economy.
Esa Alexander/Reuters
Dangote faces Kenya refinery hurdles
It is unclear where the planned refinery in Lamu, which Africa’s richest man aims to complete by 2030, will secure its feedstock from.
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
Infrastructure investor Africa50 targets $20B portfolio
The Casablanca-based fund has backed more than 30 projects in 32 countries across multiple sectors.
Nigeria’s trade surplus doubles to $9.5B
The shift was driven by a fall in fuel imports and a rise in the exports of crude oil and raw materials.
Senegal seeks more time to pay off debt
Senegal’s prime minister said the country hopes to extend the maturity of its borrowing.
Kenya’s foreign-trader crackdown exposes an economic fault line
Kenya’s President Ruto is drawing a sharper distinction between the foreigners he says the economy needs and those he says are taking opportunities from Kenyans
Security
Trump sees end to Iran war “immediately” after midterm elections
Top White House officials have reportedly told Trump that Iran would resist the US blockade through the rest of his term to Inauguration Day in Jan. 2029.
US Central Command/Handout via Reuters.
Anthropic skirts UK safety review amid rising AI transparency concerns
Anthropic declined to submit its latest model for testing to a top British AI safety institute.
Priyanshu Singh/Reuters
Netanyahu denies he ignored UAE’s warning ahead of Oct. 7 attacks
The Israeli prime minister threatened to sue Haaretz over its report that he ignored the UAE president’s explicit warning about Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks.
Ammar Awad/Reuters
Media
Fertile ground
Flagship’s lead writer Tom Chivers says goodbye after four years.
Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters
Crooked Media’s nonprofit launches new political creator drive
The nonprofit arm of Pod Save America’s audio empire is hoping to lure younger voters back to the Democratic Party.
YouTube cracks down on ‘ghost creators’
The enforcement action targeted accounts named in Semafor’s report earlier this week.
Paid actors, AI writing: How a new kind of video business cashed in on America’s divided politics
‘Ghost creators’ are reaching millions of viewers with nearly identical, sensationalized videos that take aim at Democrats.
New Leon Black book picks fight with the Times
Bill Cohan’s new biography is aimed, in part, at rebutting The New York Times’ coverage of Black and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
CEO Signal
How a ‘China-for-China’ strategy rebooted Logitech
CEO Hanneke Faber says competing in China is critical to winning in the rest of the world.
Coefficient Giving’s CEO on Silicon Valley $40 billion philanthropy boom
Alexander Berger is preparing for the AI-fueled wave.
‘We go big’: Jon Gray on how Blackstone places its AI bets
The $1.3 trillion firm is staying bullish but investing “through the lens that this may change.”
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