The Hot List
Semafor’s subjective, dynamic ranking of the elections you should be paying attention to right now — based on their urgency, their importance, and their connection to the great political forces shaping our world.
India could find itself contending with a more radical Hindu nationalist government than ever before if forecasts of a Narendra Modi landslide ends up correct. Modi’s BJP intends to “completely restructure the Indian state as a Hindu nation,” as one analyst put it. The party has recently begun to pursue some of its most wide-reaching political goals yet, with the introduction of a slate of laws both nationally and in individual states that target religious minorities, and Muslims in particular. According to Hartosh Singh Bal writing in Foreign Affairs, this persecution has only “accelerated” — and by the numbers, could amount to the “largest marginalization in human history,” impacting over 200 million Indian citizens.
India last appeared on the Hot List at #1, as nearly 1 billion voters are registered to vote in this election.
Did Eminem intervene in South Africa’s election? No, but deepfakes have been going around suggesting the rapper endorsed the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters, currently polling double digits in surveys. Drawing over 373,000 views on TikTok, Eminem’s mouth was “digitally modified” from an old interview to fit a computer-generated speech denouncing shortcomings of the ruling ANC, per Rest of World’s new AI Election Tracker. The project looks at the increasingly visible impact of AI in elections around the world.
An escapee from North Korea was elected to South Korea’s Parliament for the incumbent conservative party. A missile researcher who defected from the country at age 23, Park Choong-kwon believes his unique experience positions him well to contribute to inter-Korean policymaking. Part of the “Jangmadang Generation” that experienced famine in the 1990s, members of Park’s cohort grew up with the rise of widespread informal markets in North Korea. Despite the ruling party’s stark defeat in South Korea’s legislative elections, Park was elected this round through proportional representation.
As violence soars in Ecuador, a security referendum initiated by the president was overwhelmingly approved by voters. The referendum was intended to ratify the president’s hardline stance on crime, in a country that has seen numerous political assassinations since last year’s presidential election campaign, and rampant gang violence — including a news station that was taken hostage earlier this year. Noboa, who was elected last year seemingly out of nowhere, has drawn some comparisons to El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, and the worsening situation has led the president to enact increasingly more severe measures.
In the Maldives, the president’s Islamist party solidified its control over the country with more than 70% of seats in Parliament. The results represent a reversal from the last election, in which the Maldivian Democratic Party won its own thumping majority victory. Elections in the Maldives are often interpreted through a geopolitical lens, as the People’s National Congress of President Mohamed Muizzu is considered to lean towards China in policymaking, in contrast to the pro-India stance of the MDP.
Ghana’s recently-revealed “masked candidate” for president turned out to be a millionaire businessman nicknamed Cheddar campaigning on “radical ideas” to transform the country. Nana Kwame Bediako says he wants to bring the “same kind of team” from his world of business into politics, to establish a “different mindset.” Part of his prescriptions include divestment from what he labels “foreign influence in the economy,” and Bediako plans to build factories in order to shore up Ghanaian supply chains. His run is already facing headwinds, however, with the government accusing him of owing over $500,000 in taxes.
Venezuela’s centrist “Pencil Alliance,” led by lawyer Antonio Ecarri, strives to offer an “alternative” to the country’s mainstream political forces. While Venezuela’s opposition may have little tolerance for the Maduro regime, and hopes for democratic opening remain vanishingly small, Ecarri’s alliance banks on “moderation” as a solution to deep political ailments. At the same time, Ecarri doesn’t pull his punches. In an interview with El Pais, he slammed the opposition’s tactics as “blackmail,” and criticized Maduro’s government as the worst in Venezuelan history.
Togo’s delayed legislative election, set to expand the president’s long-term control over the country, is already seeing significant protests during the campaign period. After a move to alter the constitution that provoked opposition outrage, the president seeks to tighten his grip on power beyond term limits that expire in 2031 — which were already extended, resulting in some of Togo’s largest protests in decades. Now police are “cracking down” on demonstrations and opposition activities. For the Gnassingbe regime, which has been in power since the 1960s under the current leader’s father, it seems like whatever is necessary will be done to remain in power.
The drummer from the 90s-era band Blur will appear on UK general election ballots as a parliamentary nominee for the opposition Labour Party. Dave Rowntree, the band’s drummer since its formation in 1988, is running in the constituency of Mid Sussex, typically a Conservative stronghold. With Labour polling so high nationally, however, no analyst can predict how exactly the vote will shake out in this election, even in the most solid of Tory seats. If anyone is capable of breaking through in deeply Conservative territory, it might just be the middle-aged drummer of a famous Britpop band.
More U.S. politicians than ever are campaigning in Spanish, writes Manuel Morales in El Pais, as the United States heads toward its general election in November. According to numbers from The Hispanic Council, “47% of senators and 26% of representatives” employ the language in social media postings and other online communications. Those figures represent a significant increase from the same campaign period in 2018. While 2024 is slated to be a much bigger election year, Morales links the trend to an election in which 14.7% of eligible voters are Hispanic — a “historical record,” alongside a total figure of 13% who use Spanish in the home.
US Elections
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