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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / The real oil price shock is getting closer
View / OPEC+’s is managing sentiment, not oil supply
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:25pm EDT
1
The US sought to downplay the Iran war’s economic impact and recent flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz.
2The Iran war and the AI buildout are driving up concerns over the prospect of an energy squeeze in the US.
3Global energy prices could climb even further as supplies dwindle, executives and analysts warned.
4AI is extending its reach on Wall Street, with Anthropic rolling out new agents geared toward financial services.
5The UK staff of Google DeepMind voted to unionize amid concerns over the company’s deal with the Pentagon.
6Energy shortfalls sparked by the Iran war drove inflation worries worldwide, as Australia’s central bank raised interest rates.
GOP risks ‘distraction and liability’ with East Wing money
Republicans’ party-line immigration bill provides $1 billion for securing President Donald Trump’s East Wing project.
Ken Cedeno/Reuters Rubio heads to high-stakes sitdown with the pope
The secretary of state maintains the trip was planned before the Iran war strained relations between the pope and President Donald Trump.
Jonathan Ernst/Pool via Reuters CFTC eyes Minnesota as next front for prediction markets fight
Chair Mike Selig is monitoring states that advance legislation that would ban or regulate prediction markets.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters White House downplays Hormuz flare-ups
President Donald Trump characterized the renewed attacks in the waterway as a “skirmish.”
Kylie Cooper/ReutersHe’s back: Biden returns to the campaign conversation
One reason why he jumped in may be his enduring popularity with the Democratic base, even among voters who think his reelection attempt was a mistake.
Jim Vondruska/ReutersInflation concerns spike globally amid Iran standoff
Australia raised its interest rates, though European and US central banks have held off on hikes to avoid hurting growth and labor markets.
Mike Blake/ReutersVance heads to Iowa amid tight House race
The state is also a convenient stop to meet voters in the shadow 2028 presidential race.
Roberto Schmidt/Pool via ReutersAD
Politics
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Ken Cedeno/Reuters
Lutnick faces grilling on Epstein relationship
The commerce secretary is likely to face pointed questions from lawmakers about the nature and extent of his Epstein connections.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters CFTC eyes Minnesota as next front for prediction markets fight
Chair Mike Selig is monitoring states that advance legislation that would ban or regulate prediction markets.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters GOP risks ‘distraction and liability’ with East Wing money
Republicans’ party-line immigration bill provides $1 billion for securing President Donald Trump’s East Wing project.
Ken Cedeno/Reuters Rubio heads to high-stakes sitdown with the pope
The secretary of state maintains the trip was planned before the Iran war strained relations between the pope and President Donald Trump.
White House downplays Hormuz flare-ups
President Donald Trump characterized the renewed attacks in the waterway as a “skirmish.”
Vance heads to Iowa amid tight House race
The state is also a convenient stop to meet voters in the shadow 2028 presidential race.
He’s back: Biden returns to the campaign conversation
One reason why he jumped in may be his enduring popularity with the Democratic base, even among voters who think his reelection attempt was a mistake.
‘I don’t completely fit in’: John Kennedy keeps Republicans guessing
Quotable and inscrutable at once, the Louisiana senator is the rare faithful conservative who still confounds the party.
US to announce Norway’s inclusion in Pax Silica group with aim to counter China
Norway will be the consortium’s 15th member.
US ramps up pressure on China over Iran
The US ramped up pressure on China over the Iran war, setting up a showdown between the superpowers days before President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing.
House Democratic campaign arm’s endorsements frustrate Latino colleagues
The Hispanic Caucus’ political arm pushed back against its endorsements in California and Pennsylvania in a statement to Semafor.
Business
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Wall Street remains bullish on AI
AI is extending its reach on Wall Street as companies exhibit strong demand for the tech and reshape their workforces around it.
Brendan McDermid/ReutersGamestop CEO’s unsolicited bid for eBay looks DOA
Ryan Cohen didn’t help his case Monday, when he squandered what goodwill he had with the Street in a disastrous CNBC interview.
‘I’m the IPO guy’: serial entrepreneur Marc Lore on his plan to take Wonder public
Lore on why his food-delivery app wants to decide what you’re eating — and send someone to your house to test your blood.
Amazon opens up logistics network in challenge to shippers
Amazon is deepening its push into logistics.
Spirit closure reflects airlines’ woes
The demise of American budget carrier Spirit Airlines reflects how the jet fuel crisis stemming from the Iran war is imperiling the global travel industry.
Technology
Hannah McKay/ReutersBrendan McDermid/Reuters
UK Google DeepMind staff vote to unionize
The UK staff of Google DeepMind voted to unionize amid concerns of the company’s deal with the US Department of Defense.
Hannah McKay/ReutersWall Street remains bullish on AI
AI is extending its reach on Wall Street as companies exhibit strong demand for the tech and reshape their workforces around it.
Brendan McDermid/ReutersOpenAI, Anthropic ramp up enterprise push
OpenAI and Anthropic are both partnering with private equity firms in a bid to deploy their AI products to more businesses.
Smartphone bans in school offer mixed results, study finds
Smartphone bans didn’t lead to improvement in discipline or test scores, a large-scale study found.
AI is not replacing artists but is changing how they work, research says
Analysis of Gallup polling data suggested that AI was not reducing the workload for even the most AI-exposed creators.
Chinese humanoid robot maker Linkerbot seeks $6B valuation
Beijing has made dominating the humanoid robot sector a national priority.
Energy
Issei Kato/Reuters
Pavel Mikheyev/Reuters
Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty Images
Fuel price crunch could worsen, executives warn
Supplies of jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas are poised to plunge in Asia, Africa, and Europe.
Issei Kato/ReutersEnergy shock concerns grow in US
The Iran war and the AI buildout are driving up concerns over the prospect of an energy squeeze in the US.
Pavel Mikheyev/ReutersQatar backs sustainable jet fuel project in Egypt
The risk of a shortage of aviation fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade has made the search for alternative sources a critical issue for airlines.
Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty ImagesGulf
saudi_aramco/X
Aramco’s archival footage shows first ever Saudi oil shipment
The footage shows Saudi Arabia’s founding father King Abdulaziz turning the valve of a tanker, enabling the first shipment of Saudi oil to leave on May 1, 1939.
saudi_aramco/XQatar backs sustainable jet fuel project in Egypt
The risk of a shortage of aviation fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade has made the search for alternative sources a critical issue for airlines.
Gulf aviation make cautious recovery, despite fragile ceasefire
Renewed Iranian strikes on the UAE forced incoming flights to reroute, but operations returned largely to normal overnight.
Ceasefire teeters after Iran strikes UAE
Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones, striking an oil facility in Fujairah and raising concerns that the US-Iran ceasefire could collapse.
OPEC+ is managing sentiment, not oil supply
The group of oil producers pledged to increase output, but barrels are trapped in the Gulf and the promises hold little weight for the market.
China
Andrew Boyers/Reuters
Brian Snyder/File Photo/Reuters
Edgar Su/Reuters
China eyes soft power growth with major snooker win
Wu Yize won the World Snooker Championship, a competition traditionally dominated by Europeans.
Andrew Boyers/ReutersChina becomes a scapegoat for US data center backlash
China is playing a growing role in US discourse over domestic tech growth and regulation.
Brian Snyder/File Photo/ReutersSingapore-washing isn’t over. Manus may have just done it wrong.
In recent years, Singapore has emerged as a winner of the US-China tech war.
Edgar Su/ReutersAfrica
Kenny Katombe/Reuters
Han Xu/Xinhua via Getty Images
DR Congo eyes stake in $270M Zambia power link
As power demand grows due to the expansion of mineral processing, Kinshasa is investing in new power plants.
Kenny Katombe/ReutersZambia pushes back against US investment approach
Washington’s Africa strategy has shifted, slashing aid in favor of trade deals, and Lusaka said it did not want to tie investment to mineral access.
Han Xu/Xinhua via Getty ImagesNew housing design reduces disease rates in Tanzania
Children living in specially designed two-story homes had lower rates of malaria, diarrhea, and acute respiratory infections, a study found.
AI-driven copper mine in Zambia breaks ground
Silicon Valley-based KoBold used AI to help find a previously unknown concentrated copper ore deposit on the site.
Chinese fintech OPay eyes US IPO with $4B valuation
OPay has engaged three banks on the move, according to Bloomberg.
Nigeria’s Peter Obi leaves opposition coalition
The move increases the likelihood that the opposition vote will be split in January’s election.
Security
Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via Reuters
Thilo Schmuelgen/File Photo/Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
Kremlin enacts new security measures on assassination fears
Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly increasingly fearful of assassination attempts.
Sputnik/Alexander Kazakov/Pool via ReutersUS troop drawdown from Germany poses dilemma for Europe
The US’ withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany is symptomatic of a widening transatlantic rift that risks leaving Europe with drastic security gaps.
Thilo Schmuelgen/File Photo/ReutersTrump says US to escort ‘neutral’ ships through the Strait of Hormuz
US President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a new operation to escort neutral ships that are stuck in the Strait of Hormuz.
Stringer/ReutersMedia
Screenshot/The Dispatch; Thomas Peter/Reuters
Dispatch exec departs amid uncertainty
Mike Rothman’s exit comes as The Dispatch has explored a potential sale.
Screenshot/The Dispatch; Thomas Peter/ReutersHow the Fox News hawks got back in Trump’s good graces
And how Marc Thiessen saved Ukraine.
Johnny Harris on building a journalism project that doesn’t sell out
Harris joins Mixed Signals to break down how he went from selling his own plasma to running a YouTube channel with over 7 million subscribers
How the WHCD shooting laid bare the media’s trust crisis
I was at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. Some number of people are convinced we’re not getting the real story.
FCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Dan Schulman’s plan to get Verizon back in the fight
“If somebody’s going to punch me, I’m going to punch back,” Verizon CEO Dan Schulman says in this episode of The CEO Signal.
How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHilton’s Chris Nassetta on why CEOs should ‘lift above the noise’
The longstanding leader says it’s critical to avoid “jerking the wheel.”
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD