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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:34am EDT
1
Donald Trump threatened to pull out of NATO, calling it a ‘paper tiger’ for refusing to back the Iran war.
2Stocks rose and oil fell after Donald Trump said the Iran war could end in ‘two or three weeks.’
3Germany’s economy minister said Berlin should reconsider its opposition to nuclear power to shield from oil and gas price swings.
4Argentina’s poverty levels dropped to their lowest since 2018, though the war in Iran threatens to stall progress.
5Global dealmaking had a bumper start to 2026 despite geopolitical turmoil, thanks largely to several mega mergers and acquisitions.
6The Iran conflict will cost the Middle East nearly $200 billion in lost economic output, the UN projected.
Gas prices poised to weigh on spending
The Commerce Department will release data on Wednesday that reveals how consumers were spending their money before the war in Iran.
Marco Bello/Reuters A Texas plastic surgeon was patient zero for the right’s Charlie Kirk conspiracy fever
Keith Rose, a doctor and conservative commentator, made dire warnings soon after Kirk’s assassination.
Joey Pfeifer/SemaforTrump officials promote new savings programs
“I believe that in the end, when we look back at the policy legacy of this administration, these will be two of the most transformative policies,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersChina’s next EV boom: trucks
Nearly 30% of all new heavy trucks sold in the country last year were electric.
Tingshu Wang/ReutersAre tiny homes the cure for America’s housing woes?
“We love it as an asset class,” says the CEO of the prefab homebuilder that spun out of Airbnb.
Bessent’s back on the campaign trail
Republicans have an unlikely asset in the treasury secretary ahead of the midterms.
Abdul Saboor/ReutersBenefit Street Partners looks for Gulf private credit deals
Undeterred by the Iran war, Franklin Templeton’s credit arm looks to expand in the Gulf.
David Manlowe. Courtesy of the Future Investment Initiative.AD
Politics
NATO chief Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Screenshot/Nobody Knows Anything
Special to Semafor via Nicholas Wu
Trump threatens to pull US out of NATO
The US president called the military alliance a ‘paper tiger’ for its refusal to back his war with Iran.
NATO chief Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. Jonathan Ernst/ReutersBiden vet launches biweekly streaming show
Rob Flaherty and Jesse Lehrich will launch Nobody Knows Anything, a 90-minute biweekly show, later this month.
Screenshot/Nobody Knows AnythingLawmakers get TMZ treatment during DHS shutdown
Photos seen by Semafor show House Republicans from the pragmatic Main Street Caucus at Edinburgh Castle in Scotland.
Special to Semafor via Nicholas WuGas prices poised to weigh on spending
The Commerce Department will release data on Wednesday that reveals how consumers were spending their money before the war in Iran.
Stocks surge on optimism for Iran war end
US stocks bounced back on Tuesday on reports that both Tehran and Washington may be looking to exit the month-long conflict.
Trump officials promote new savings programs
“I believe that in the end, when we look back at the policy legacy of this administration, these will be two of the most transformative policies,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said.
A Texas plastic surgeon was patient zero for the right’s Charlie Kirk conspiracy fever
Keith Rose, a doctor and conservative commentator, made dire warnings soon after Kirk’s assassination.
Bessent’s back on the campaign trail
Republicans have an unlikely asset in the treasury secretary ahead of the midterms.
More worry a ‘great deal’ about health costs than economy, poll finds
Health care polled as Americans’ top issue for the first time since 2020.
US bill aims to strengthen Taiwan ties
A bipartisan group of senators wants to direct the US government to work with Taiwan on bolstering the island’s domestic drone industry
Hackers hit Patel email while cyber defenses weakened by shutdown
CISA, housed within DHS and responsible for defending critical infrastructure, has been hamstrung by the ongoing shutdown.
Business
Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo/Reuters
Global markets buoyed on prospect of war’s end
US President Donald Trump said the Iran war could end in “two or three weeks,” while Tehran also expressed willingness to stop the conflict.
Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo/ReutersGlobal dealmaking sees strong 2026 start
The 20% year-on-year increase in transaction values resulted in the largest first-quarter haul on record, Bloomberg reported.
Musk lawsuits reassigned on judge bias allegations
Three lawsuits involving Elon Musk will be reassigned after the presiding judge appeared to endorse a LinkedIn post critical of the billionaire.
Trump administration eyes 401(k) rule change for private credit fix
The Trump administration is offering private credit a way out of its problems.
The crisis will arrive slowly, then all at once
World leaders are doomscrolling. Why aren’t investors?
Technology
Wikipedia
Antranik Tavitian/Reuters
Wikipedia bans use of AI to ‘generate or rewrite’ articles
The policy replaced more broad language saying that AI should not be used to generate articles “from scratch.”
WikipediaEli Lilly leans into AI drug discovery with new licensing deal
US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly inked a $2.75 billion deal with a Hong Kong-listed biotech firm to create new medicines using AI.
Antranik Tavitian/ReutersPentagon AI architect on the future of warfare
Semafor spoke with Drew Cukor, who dragged a reluctant defense establishment into the AI age.
Google hedges its quantum bets
This week, Google announced a major investment in what’s known as the “neutral atom,” otherwise known less scientifically as just a regular old atom.
How I jailbroke an OpenClaw PR agent
It’s easy to imagine AI agents organizing events, but the tech isn’t there yet — even with human oversight.
Former Tesla president’s tips on moving fast in the age of AI
Jon McNeill’s new book, “The Algorithm, “is the most important business book of the year.
Energy
Michaela Stache/Reuters
Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/Reuters
Alexander Manzyuk/Reuters
German minister urges nuclear power revival
Countries are scrambling to address the energy upheaval caused by the Iran war, which has sent oil and gas prices soaring.
Michaela Stache/ReutersShorter showers and workweeks: Iran war disrupts daily life
The Iran war is disrupting daily life around the world as governments take action to blunt the impact of the energy crisis.
Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/ReutersFears of global aluminum shortages intensify
The Middle East accounts for 9% of the world’s production of aluminum.
Alexander Manzyuk/ReutersGulf
Kuwait Petroleum Corp./Reuters
The Iran war warning Europe chose to ignore
In Warsaw in 2019, Arab states, Israel, and the US warned that diplomacy wouldn’t contain Tehran. Europe chose another path.
Kuwait Petroleum Corp./ReutersWar could cost MidEast nearly $200B in lost economic output
A prolonged conflict could lead to an exodus of foreign workers and a drop in investment, which could drive up unemployment and poverty.
Wall Street bosses stick by the Gulf despite war
Foreign firms know that Gulf leaders have long memories and will reward those who stand by them.
Gulf leaders scramble for Hormuz work-around
Saudi Arabia and the UAE invested years ago in pipelines that bypass the waterway, but Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar remained trapped by geography.
Ratings agencies warn of impact of Iran war
Fitch said it could downgrade Qatar’s rating, citing the risk of further damage to the country’s gas facilities.
Africa
President of the Confederation of African Football Patrice Motsepe. Sayed Hassan/Getty Images.
Daniel Beloymou Olomo/AFP via Getty Images
The quiet campaign for a mining billionaire to be South Africa’s next president
Can a billionaire stabilize South Africa’s ANC?
President of the Confederation of African Football Patrice Motsepe. Sayed Hassan/Getty Images.Promised sickle cell cure could be on horizon for Africans
While treatment options for the inherited blood disease have long been available, scientists now believe that a cure for sickle cell may lie in gene-editing.
Daniel Beloymou Olomo/AFP via Getty ImagesTop CAF official resigns amid AFCON backlash
The resignation came shortly after the controversial ruling by African football’s governing body that stripped Senegal of its African Cup of Nations title.
Sun King pledges to $150M to Ethiopia electrification
The Kenya-based firm, which already operates in 14 African countries, is the world’s largest off-grid solar company.
South Africa opts for low-profile new Washington envoy
Thabo Thage’s appointment as the de facto head of mission comes at a time of heightened diplomatic tension between the countries.
US-China rivalry in DR Congo escalates as Beijing signs new deal
Kinshasa and Beijing inked a new agreement covering geological data sharing, investment protections, and local processing.
SecurityNATO chief Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters 
Denis Balibouse/Reuters
Kharg Island. Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters
Trump threatens to pull US out of NATO
The US president called the military alliance a ‘paper tiger’ for its refusal to back his war with Iran.
NATO chief Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. Jonathan Ernst/ReutersEurovision expands to Asia
Bangkok is set to host the international song competition in the fall.
Denis Balibouse/ReutersUS, Iran expand targets to water infrastructure
Gulf nations are highly reliant on desalination for fresh water, and damage to the region’s hundreds of plants could render its major cities unlivable.
Kharg Island. Planet Labs PBC/Handout via ReutersMediaScreenshot/Nobody Knows Anything
Biden vet launches biweekly streaming show
Rob Flaherty and Jesse Lehrich will launch Nobody Knows Anything, a 90-minute biweekly show, later this month.
Screenshot/Nobody Knows AnythingAxel Springer’s Döpfner courts UK conservative elites
The German mogul is courting regulators and the country’s influential conservative political figures as he attempts to get his bid to buy the Telegraph approved.
Substack rival Beehiiv makes a push into podcasting
Beehiiv has privately been reaching out to independent podcasters on Substack and other platforms.
CBS News expands its investigative team
The network is expanding its investigative journalism efforts as editor-in-chief Bari Weiss continues to reshape it.
Politico taps a new top editor
Jonathan Greenberger garnered internal support from outgoing editor John Harris and CEO Goli Sheikholeslami.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of LSEG/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Schneider Electric/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
LSEG’s David Schwimmer on activists, AI, and a global market test
The exchange operator is juggling investor expectations with the need to reshape its business model.
Courtesy of LSEG/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforSchneider Electric’s Olivier Blum on moving at the pace of Nvidia
Remaking an old industrial giant to meet new energy demands started with defining its mission.
Courtesy of Schneider Electric/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy CEOs should care about the quantum ‘space race’
IonQ’s Niccolo de Masi says getting quantum security right is ‘a matter of survivability.’
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor AD