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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / Energy crisis pushes South Africa into classic policy trap
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:59am EDT
1
The US and Iran traded fire even as Washington insisted a month-long ceasefire was still holding.
2Irregular trading ahead of major White House announcements has sparked concerns of widespread corruption in Washington.
3Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, usually a tightly-orchestrated highly-patriotic parade, appear much more muted this year as anger at leadership grows.
4The US and South Africa held bilateral trade talks, a sign that ties may be improving after months of tension.
5Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said after a three-hour meeting with Donald Trump that ties had been “stabilized.”
6China handed down suspended death sentences to two former defense ministers, part of a widespread high-level anti-corruption purge.
Mali attacks raise alarm bells in Washington
A sweeping jihadist offensive across Mali is raising concerns about the safety of Americans in the West African nation.
Mali Presidency via Facebook /Handout via ReutersButtigieg, Slotkin join Canada’s Carney at liberal strategy session
The two potential 2028 candidates will speak alongside liberal politicians from other Western democracies.
Carlos Osorio/ReutersWhite House hosts anti-abortion activists for meeting
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser is expected to attend.
Aaron Schwartz/Reuters Trump administration plans to invite CEOs from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon on China trip
Expectations for splashy deals are low, but talks underscore potential thawing of Washington-Beijing trade tensions.
Trump and Xi Jinping during a meeting in 2025. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters.Semafor Intelligence: Prevailing views from Semafor World Economy 2026
Brown-Forman, Pernod deal collapsed over family pride, not price
Heirs of the Kentucky whiskey empire, the smaller of the two companies, wanted more control over the combined company, people familiar with the matter said.
Kevin Wurm/ReutersDavos cracks down on the busy Promenade
The World Economic Forum’s official partners will have more control of the main street, as media and “social entrepreneurs” lose access.
Arnd Wiegmann/Reuters
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Politics
Andrew Kelly/Reuters
Claudia Greco/ReutersMali Presidency via Facebook /Handout via Reuters
Irregular trades ahead of White House announcements spark major graft concerns
The “highly unusual” trades have added to calls for regulators to step up their scrutiny of senior US government officials, including President Donald Trump.
Andrew Kelly/ReutersDebatable: Trump’s impact on NATO
Europe is worried that Trump may be “quiet quitting” the alliance.
Claudia Greco/ReutersMali attacks raise alarm bells in Washington
A sweeping jihadist offensive across Mali is raising concerns about the safety of Americans in the West African nation.
Mali Presidency via Facebook /Handout via ReutersButtigieg, Slotkin join Canada’s Carney at liberal strategy session
The two potential 2028 candidates will speak alongside liberal politicians from other Western democracies.
White House hosts anti-abortion activists for meeting
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser is expected to attend.
Rubio’s papal visit stokes talk about his 2028 ambitions
To many in the Trump administration, the secretary of state’s Vatican visit this week left a lingering glow.
Rubio eases US-Vatican tensions in meeting with pope
The talks followed US President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the leader of the Catholic Church.
Inside Lutnick’s Epstein testimony
A spokesperson said the commerce secretary answered nearly 400 questions.
Collins launches first general election ad in Maine
The ad nods to her seniority as Senate Appropriations chair and her sway in Washington.
Graham’s Democratic opponent hits him on ballroom funding
“That will go over like a lead balloon in South Carolina,” Democratic challenger Annie Andrews said of the ballroom funds.
Rubio lands in Italy at difficult moment
President Donald Trump has recently criticized Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Business
Reckitt Benckiser/Handout via Reuters
Reckitt’s Kris Licht on moving at ‘China speed’
The CEO behind Lysol and Durex ‘pivoted hard’ for a new era of TikTok-driven commerce.
Reckitt Benckiser/Handout via Reuters Activists target massive SpaceX IPO
Documents show SpaceX is looking to limit investors’ ability to challenge company management.
Businesses warn of lran war denting consumer sentiment
Major companies on Thursday warned that consumers globally will start pulling back on purchases, challenging the narrative of resilient spending despite the Iran war.
Brown-Forman, Pernod deal collapsed over family pride, not price
Heirs of the Kentucky whiskey empire, the smaller of the two companies, wanted more control over the combined company, people familiar with the matter said.
Davos cracks down on the busy Promenade
The World Economic Forum’s official partners will have more control of the main street, as media and “social entrepreneurs” lose access.
Technology
Mike Blake/Reuters
Joe Skipper/Reuters
Activists target massive SpaceX IPO
Documents show SpaceX is looking to limit investors’ ability to challenge company management.
Mike Blake/ReutersAnthropic’s tie up with Elon Musk paves way for space data centers
The partnership hands a big win to OpenAI’s biggest competitor at the peak of Musk’s public feud with OpenAI.
Joe Skipper/ReutersiRobot founder faces Chinese market again
Colin Angle says he’s learned his lessons in competing with China.
The investment banking AI push is a rising tide
Frontier Al labs are slowly encroaching on well-funded startups that have served companies’ industry-specific AI needs.
Little-known materials startup Intalus raises $11M seed round
Intalus’ invention is going to become increasingly important in an economy that is asking more of the physical world.
Companies have already lost control of workplace AI
The utility-to-risk ratio in AI has shifted so far toward utility that companies have already lost control.
Energy
Andrew Wong ASW/TW/Reuters
Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters
Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA/Reuters
Trees counter half of the world’s urban heating, study finds
The cooling effect of trees, however, is concentrated precisely where it’s less needed.
Andrew Wong ASW/TW/ReutersRare Earth Americas bets on Trump-backed mining boom
Rare Earth Americas listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the first rare earths mining venture to go public in the US since 2010 via a traditional listing.
Chalinee Thirasupa/ReutersOil drops on renewed hopes for US-Iran talks
US gasoline prices continued to rise, however, with Donald Trump running out of moves to lower them.
Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA/ReutersGulf
Amr Alfiky/Reuters
US awaits Iran response to truce plan as tensions flare in Hormuz
The US and Iran are getting closer to an agreement to temporarily end hostilities, according to Pakistani officials, even as tensions flared in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amr Alfiky/ReutersEmirates posts record profits for third consecutive year
The airline is the world’s most profitable carrier, despite the Iran war effectively shutting down its home airport at the end of the reporting period.
Abu Dhabi chemicals platform plans $10B investment
The announcement is one of the first big moves made since the government launched a campaign to expand domestic production of critical goods.
ADNOC Drilling taps AI to slash oil rig costs
The UAE national oil company subsidiary expects to invest approximately $1 billion in AI and technology in the coming year.
Saudi Aramco spends big on AI to boost oil output
The supercomputer will offer seven times more compute capacity than Aramco currently has, enabling it to handle larger volumes of data for seismic imaging and reservoir simulations.
China
Greg Baker/Pool via Reuters. 
Tingshu Wang/Reuters
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Handout via Reuters
China sentences two former defense ministers in major corruption purge
The pair are among around 100 top officers to be dismissed or disappeared, according to a recent assessment.
Greg Baker/Pool via Reuters. China’s nuclear thinking has shifted
The swift buildup of China’s nuclear arsenal bucks conventional wisdom on the limits of Beijing’s ambitions.
Tingshu Wang/ReutersChina renews call for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen
China pushed for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after hosting Iran’s foreign minister, an exchange that reflected Beijing’s fraught position in the conflict.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Handout via ReutersAfrica
Aliko Dangote. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor World Economy.
Per-Anders Pettersson/Getty Images
Dangote Cement plans London Stock Exchange listing
UK regulators are pursuing more initial public offerings by African companies.
Aliko Dangote. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor World Economy.Energy crisis pushes South Africa into classic policy trap
The government last month slashed the fuel tax levy, a temporary measure meant to ease the pain caused by rising fuel prices.
Per-Anders Pettersson/Getty ImagesJumia leans on China imports as Nigeria becomes top market
The African e-commerce company is locked in fierce competition with Chinese players Temu and Shein on the continent.
South Africa’s top court revives Ramaphosa impeachment probe
The constitutional court said parliament had acted unlawfully by blocking the process in 2022.
Mali attacks raise alarm bells in Washington
A sweeping jihadist offensive raises questions about the security of the US embassy in Bamako.
Africa seeks self-reliance as Iran war exposes vulnerabilities
Countries are looking to increase oil and gas production along with fertilizers, all hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
SecurityAmr Alfiky/Reuters 
Danilson Sequeira/Reuters
Christian Mang/Reuters
US awaits Iran response to truce plan as tensions flare in Hormuz
The US and Iran are getting closer to an agreement to temporarily end hostilities, according to Pakistani officials, even as tensions flared in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amr Alfiky/ReutersHantavirus is ‘not the next COVID,’ WHO says
After a lethal outbreak of hantavirus on a cruise ship, authorities around the world are racing to trace passengers who disembarked.
Danilson Sequeira/ReutersGermany’s Merz marks one year in office
Germany’s chancellor is falling behind on his core goals one year into his tenure, analysts said.
Christian Mang/ReutersMedia
Aaron Schwartz/Reuters
Old news: Why a former New York Times editor blocked Epstein Pulitzer
“Not the best entry,” Joe Sexton told Semafor, referencing Miami Herald investigative reporter Julie Brown’s 2018 series that effectively reopened the Epstein investigation.
Aaron Schwartz/ReutersDispatch exec departs amid uncertainty
Mike Rothman’s exit comes as The Dispatch has explored a potential sale.
How the Fox News hawks got back in Trump’s good graces
And how Marc Thiessen saved Ukraine.
Johnny Harris on building a journalism project that doesn’t sell out
Harris joins Mixed Signals to break down how he went from selling his own plasma to running a YouTube channel with over 7 million subscribers
How the WHCD shooting laid bare the media’s trust crisis
I was at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. Some number of people are convinced we’re not getting the real story.
CEO SignalReckitt Benckiser/Handout via Reuters 
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Reckitt’s Kris Licht on moving at ‘China speed’
The CEO behind Lysol and Durex ‘pivoted hard’ for a new era of TikTok-driven commerce.
Reckitt Benckiser/Handout via Reuters Dan Schulman’s plan to get Verizon back in the fight
“If somebody’s going to punch me, I’m going to punch back,” Verizon CEO Dan Schulman says in this episode of The CEO Signal.
How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD