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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 5:40pm EST
1
Gulf stock indexes fell over escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen, though the flare-up didn’t dent oil markets.
2Russia ramped up warnings and shows of force against Ukraine, as both Moscow and Kyiv look to sway US President Donald Trump in peace talks.
3Wall Street analysts overwhelmingly predict a strong 2026 for US markets, despite narratives of overvalued tech stocks.
4US tech giant Meta’s purchase of Beijing-founded startup Manus caps a remarkable year for Chinese AI.
5Iceland hit a record temperature of nearly 20°C (68°F) on Christmas Eve, underscoring the extent to which polar regions are warming faster than other areas of the globe.
6Washington reportedly offered Kyiv a 15-year security guarantee, a far cry from the half-century sought by Ukraine.
What media leaders got wrong in 2025
We asked top reporters, editors, Substackers, and executives from around the world what they missed this year.
China sanctions US defense firms over Taiwan deal
Northrop Grumman, a Boeing production unit, and the founder of Anduril Industries were among Beijing’s targets.
Ann Wang/Reuters Abu Dhabi’s renewable giant Masdar expands into Malaysia
Once complete, it will be the largest floating solar plant in Southeast Asia, able to power more than 100,000 homes.
Daniel Cole/ReutersKyiv signals openness to demilitarized zones as peace concession
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signaled he was open to withdrawing troops and establishing demilitarized zones in the country’s east.
Stringer/Reuters AD
Prince Alwaleed nears $400 million deal for Saudi soccer team
The Saudi billionaire is close to buying a 75% stake in Riyadh club Al Hilal from the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund.
Stringer/ReutersUS authorities release new tranche of Epstein files
The release of a new tranche of files related to Jeffrey Epstein will only add to Americans’ confusion and division over the late sex offender and his ties to Donald Trump and other elite figures, analysts said.
U.S. Justice Department/Handout via Reuters Trump, Zelenskyy discuss Ukraine peace plan in Florida
Neither leader offered evidence of a major breakthrough over the Ukraine peace plan after their meeting in Mar-a-Lago on Sunday.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters 
Politics
Nasry Asfura. Leonel Estrada/File Photo/Reuters
Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters
Thierry Breton. Yves Herman/Reuters.
Trump ally wins Honduras’ long-drawn presidential election
Nasry Asfura has vowed to cut ties with Beijing and restore relations with Taiwan.
Nasry Asfura. Leonel Estrada/File Photo/ReutersFrance cuts immigration amid rising far-right support
The move is the latest by Western nations as they look to clampdown on immigration amid growing support for far-right parties.
Stephanie Lecocq/ReutersUS denies EU citizens visas over social media ‘censorship’
The US secretary of state called the EU nationals “radical activists… targeting American speakers and American companies.”
Thierry Breton. Yves Herman/Reuters.US Supreme Court blocks Chicago troop deployment
The White House had said the troops were necessary to fight crime, but city officials objected.
Trump’s new special envoy tasked with annexing Greenland
The Danish-controlled territory is a source of key minerals, and Trump has repeatedly said he wants the US to take control of it.
Sacks, Witkoff could face ethics probe over UAE deals
The Trump officials’ involvement in a decision to allow export of advanced US-made chips to the UAE has come under scrutiny from Democrats.
Budget chair Graham plots next Republican party-line bill
Graham said it would be “political malpractice” not to do another reconciliation bill.
The 2025 media lesson: Talk to everyone
Washington figures retreat into friendly media bubbles at their peril.
Congress eyes hearings on Warner Bros. Discovery battle — but nothing binding
There’s little prospect for passage of any legislation that might affect Netflix’s or Paramount’s bids in time.
Turning Point USA conference shows deepening divisions on US right
A conference featuring some of the US’ most prominent conservative figures revealed an American right marred by divisions over its future.
US issues tough demands over Canada-Mexico trade deal
The remarks by the US’ top trade official will buoy Mexican and Canadian officials, after Donald Trump suggested he may allow the deal to lapse.
Business
Semafor Business’ 2026 Bingo Card
A list of our predictions for 2026, let’s see how many we get right.
Cold-storage giant Americold fields private equity interest
Multiple bidders, including EQT and iSquared, are interested in buying Americold’s European businesses.
Nvidia buys AI chip startup Groq for $20 billion
The semiconductor giant will hire all of Groq’s top staff and license the firm’s AI technology.
M&A is cleaning the decks for AI
As we close the books on 2025, here are two data points to consider: Gold hit a record high and corporate mergers came very close to one.
Gold doubles as investors rush to safety
In addition to retail boosters, central banks have turned to gold as a replacement for US dollars.
Technology
Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo/Reuters
Chris Helgren/Reuters
Meta to buy startup Manus, the latest deal in an AI M&A surge
Meta’s purchase is significant for being among the biggest deals in which a US company has bought into the Chinese AI ecosystem.
Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo/ReutersAccountancy exams go in-person as AI cheating soars
The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants said that cheats were “outpacing” safeguards.
Chris Helgren/ReutersNvidia buys AI chip startup Groq for $20 billion
The semiconductor giant will hire all of Groq’s top staff and license the firm’s AI technology.
The 2025 tech predictions that came true, and ones that surprised us
This year marked many tech developments that Semafor saw coming, but there were a few we missed in this honest wrap-up.
Corporate debt issuance nears record highs on AI investment
The $1.7 trillion in bond issuances fell short only of 2020’s pandemic-fueled rush, with 30% of it related to AI.
China dials back robocar ambitions after deadly crash
News of the high-speed crash in March, unlike previous incidents, evaded Beijing’s censors and spread widely.
Energy
Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters
Nathan Howard/Reuters
Issei Kato/Reuters
Copper price to hit record high amid shortage worries
Copper’s value comes from its critical role in the energy transition: Powering EVs, the AI boom, and the shift from fossil fuels to renewables.
Evgenia Novozhenina/ReutersNuclear fusion executives welcome Trump Media merger
The planned merger between nuclear fusion startup TAE Technologies and Trump Media raised some concerns about conflicts of interest.
Nathan Howard/ReutersJapan to reopen world’s largest nuclear reactor
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa was one of 54 reactors shuttered after the 2011 earthquake that triggered the Fukushima nuclear meltdown.
Issei Kato/ReutersGulf
Nvidia handout/Reuters
Abu Dhabi boardrooms more open to AI oversight than Fortune 100
Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala increasingly relies on AI to screen deals, make investment decisions and, ultimately, sell its own tech products.
Nvidia handout/ReutersCorporate debt sales rose in 2025 as Gulf increasingly turns to borrowing
Overall around $207 billion worth of bonds and sukuk have been issued this year, according to Kamco Invest.
Saudi Arabia bombs Yemen port amid rift with UAE
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back opposing forces in Yemen.
Bahrain taps SandboxAQ to modernize cybersecurity
The Palo Alto-based AI firm is partnering with Bahrain’s National Cyber Security Center to deploy its software across some 60 government bodies.
Abu Dhabi’s renewable giant Masdar expands into Malaysia
Once complete, it will be the largest floating solar plant in Southeast Asia, able to power more than 100,000 homes.
Africa
Mike Hutchings/Illustration/Reuters
Souleymane Camara/Reuters
African currencies among best performers in 2025
The stellar year was driven by soaring commodity prices and rising economic stability.
Mike Hutchings/Illustration/ReutersGuinea election expected to cement autocrat’s rule
Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power in a coup in 2021, is predicted to win a seven-year term, cementing the autocrat’s rule in the West African nation.
Souleymane Camara/ReutersTouadéra set to extend his term as president of the Central African Republic
The incumbent looks likely to win another five year term despite slowing growth and a worsening security situation.
African Cup of Nations shifts to 4-year cycle
The move will align the tournament with European sporting calendars after years of complaints from clubs.
Ghana approves bill to legalize the use of cryptocurrencies
Crypto is increasingly popular among digitally savvy consumers and businesses on the continent trying to hedge against currency volatility.
Trump withdraws US ambassadors to Africa
Washington has removed top-level representatives in more than half the countries of sub-Saharan Africa.
Security
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Eva Marie Uzcategui/Reuters
Alex Babenko/Reuters
US, Ukraine differ on proposals for peace deal guarantees
The US reportedly offered Ukraine a 15-year security guarantee as part of talks on Monday, far less than the half-century backing sought by Kyiv.
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersUS strikes Venezuelan dock in first attack on mainland
President Donald Trump said US forces carried out a strike on a dockyard allegedly used by drug traffickers.
Eva Marie Uzcategui/ReutersRussian troops take key Ukrainian town Siversk
The capture eases Moscow’s advance to the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, part of Ukraine’s industrial belt.
Alex Babenko/ReutersMedia
Ahmed Saad/Reuters
Audiobook growth contrasts with print
Overall, sales of audio versions of books grew 1% in the year through October after rising more than 20% in 2024.
Ahmed Saad/ReutersWhat media leaders got wrong in 2025
Reflections from media leaders around the world.
What actually mattered in 2025, with Janice Min and Emily Sundberg
The Ankler’s Min and FeedMe’s founder Sundberg join Mixed Signals for a candid roundtable lookback at a disorienting year in media.
Paramount CEO’s father offers $40B backing for WBD takeover
Larry Ellison’s intervention comes as competition heats up between Paramount and streaming giant Netflix to take over WBD.
Trump and television divide CBS newsroom
New top editor Bari Weiss’ explosive decision to pull a “60 Minutes” segment at the last minute has divided the newsroom.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of WPP/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Target/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Lyft/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
‘AI is going to automate the ordinary’: Cindy Rose’s plan for ad giant WPP
The admaker has fallen behind its peers, but the Microsoft veteran sees opportunity in disruption.
Courtesy of WPP/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor‘We’ve got work to do’: The new CEO aiming at an elevated Target
Michael Fiddelke says a clearer focus and simpler messaging can return the retailer to growth.
Courtesy of Target/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Lyft’s David Risher seized his ‘wet cement’ moment
The CEO of the No. 2 in US ridesharing says there’s more to growth than catching ‘the other guys.’
Courtesy of Lyft/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD