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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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Democratic Party faces its internal demons on US-Israel policy — again
Larry Summers’ new chart sounds the inflation alarm
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:24pm EDT
1
Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal, as Donald Trump renewed his threats against Tehran’s civilian infrastructure.
2The Iran war risks pushing US inflation and interest rates up, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in his annual letter to shareholders.
3Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to its highest level in weeks, as more countries negotiated with Iran for safe transit.
4Global shipping disruptions have adversely impacted Kenya’s economy, though other African nations stand to benefit from the upheaval.
5Cuba’s energy crisis is making the island more reliant on Chinese solar power.
6A survey of US economists predicted substantial economic gains, but also significant job losses, as AI takes off.
Iran war boosts US plastics
Prices of Persian Gulf oil, the key raw material for many plastics, have surged, forcing plastic makers in Asia and Europe to cut output.
Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters Riyadh evacuates main business hub over Iran threat
Businesses have been told not to send employees into work at King Abdullah Financial Center.
Isabel Infantes/ReutersMaryland’s biggest newspaper is going after the governor’s 2028 campaign
The owner of Maryland’s biggest paper and TV stations is keeping close tabs on his outlet’s investigation of Gov. Wes Moore.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images Why Vance is headed to Hungary
He’s hoping to boost Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the country’s looming election.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Emma Walmsley on leading and leaving GSK
What does it take to hand over a company after years at the helm?
Courtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforSwalwell-FBI flap could backfire on Trump administration
The Democratic lawmaker is in the thick of his California gubernatorial campaign.
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersTrump overhauls metal, drug tariffs
Makers of brand-name drugs who refuse the US’ demands to lower prices and relocate manufacturing to the US will face tariffs of 100%.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
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Politics
US Navy/Handout via ReutersChalinee Thirasupa/Reuters 
Jeenah Moon/Reuters
Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal as Trump renews threats
Trump said the “entire country can be taken out in one night” if the Islamic Republic doesn’t agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersIran war boosts US plastics
Prices of Persian Gulf oil, the key raw material for many plastics, have surged, forcing plastic makers in Asia and Europe to cut output.
Chalinee Thirasupa/Reuters BNY, Robinhood to launch Trump Accounts
BNY will manage the accounts and develop a Treasury-branded app while partnering with Robinhood, which will serve as brokerage.
Jeenah Moon/ReutersDemocratic Party faces its internal demons on US-Israel policy — again
DNC Chair Ken Martin’s proposed working group on Gaza hasn’t gotten very far ahead of this week’s New Orleans confab.
Why Vance is headed to Hungary
He’s hoping to boost Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the country’s looming election.
Larry Summers’ new chart sounds the inflation alarm
The economist has shared with associates his view that the American fiscal and economic situations would be worryingly fragile even without a war.
Trump issues expletive-laden threat against Iran
US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb all of Iran’s power plants and destroy its bridges if Tehran didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Pope Leo XIV calls for peace in first Easter address
Pope Leo XIV warned the world is becoming “accustomed to violence,” urging leaders in his first Easter address to end conflict and prioritize dialogue.
White House asks Congress to spend big on defense
The Trump administration asked lawmakers to boost defense spending by 42% while cutting all other spending by 10%.
Debatable: Paying TSA workers
Trump went around Congress to pay TSA workers during the shutdown. There are doubts about the legality of his move.
World views China better than US, poll finds
A median 36% of those polled across more than 130 countries approve of China’s leadership, while 31% approve of US leadership.
Business
Jonathan Alcorn/Reuters
Jamie Dimon warns on war inflation risks
The Iran war risks pushing US inflation and interest rates up, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday.
Jonathan Alcorn/ReutersUS inflation likely spiked in March, economists predict
The Iran war likely drove up US consumer prices in March, economists predicted ahead of key inflation data expected this week.
AI startups boost Hong Kong IPOs
Listings on Hong Kong’s stock exchange reached a five-year high in the first quarter of 2026, driven by investor appetite for AI and chips.
The three questions a CEO should ask about their AI agents
Okta’s Todd McKinnon sees a digital workforce creating new vulnerabilities.
Why JLL is betting its biggest clients will drive growth in ‘crazy’ times
Christian Ulbrich says companies succeed by reducing complexity for their clients.
Technology
Toby Melville/Reuters
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Expert survey sees higher GDP growth, job losses from AI
US economists predict substantial economic gains, but also significant job losses, as AI takes off.
Toby Melville/ReutersNew Yorker investigation raises questions over Sam Altman’s trustworthiness
People close to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman privately questioned whether he could be trusted not only with running the powerful AI company, but as a leader of the transformative technology.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersAnthropic eyes its own version of OpenClaw
The popularity of OpenClaw, the agent platform that OpenAI acquired, has crystallized another big AI race.
Sycophantic AI might make us meaner, research suggests
A study found that AIs fed interpersonal dilemmas from the subreddit r/amItheasshole were twice as likely as humans to endorse the user’s behavior.
The next generation of Silicon Valley garage startups is here
This time around, it’s the bedroom coders, some of whom are still in their teens.
Pentagon taps humanoid robot startups
Gun-shooting humanoid robots fighting on the front lines are becoming less of a dystopian fantasy.
Energy
Norlys Perez/Reuters
Marco Bello/Reuters
Punit Paranjpe/File Photo/Reuters
Cuba turns to Chinese solar for energy lifeline
Cuba’s energy crisis is making the island more reliant on Chinese solar power.
Norlys Perez/ReutersVenezuela’s March oil exports boom
The boost in sales comes as part of US efforts to liberalize the country’s oil sector, which has spurred interest from investors.
Marco Bello/ReutersAsian oil refiners feel the heat from MidEast energy shortages
The Iran war is squeezing Asia’s oil refiners, forcing them to pay more or reduce output.
Punit Paranjpe/File Photo/ReutersGulf
Stringer/File Photo/Reuters
Tehran is letting more ships through the Strait of Hormuz
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to its highest level in weeks, as more countries negotiated with Iran for safe transit.
Stringer/File Photo/ReutersIran rejects US ceasefire proposal as Trump renews threats
Trump said the “entire country can be taken out in one night” if the Islamic Republic doesn’t agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday evening.
Civilian toll mounts in Iran as war presses on
There have been twice as many US and Israeli attacks on Iran compared to the number of Iranian retaliatory strikes since the war began.
Limited tanker flow returns to Hormuz
Iran provided an exemption for Iraqi tankers, adding to the vessels from Asian countries that have gained safe passage.
Riyadh evacuates main business hub over Iran threat
Businesses have been told not to send employees into work at King Abdullah Financial Center.
Africa
Thomas Mukoya/Reuters
Alet Pretorius/Reuters
Shipping disruptions alter African fortunes
The disruptions to global shipping routes have taken a huge toll on Kenya’s economy, though other African nations stand to benefit from the upheaval.
Thomas Mukoya/ReutersSouth Africa mulls migration overhaul to boost economic growth
The rewrite seeks to attract so-called “designer migrants,” in order to address labor shortages in health care, engineering, and technology.
Alet Pretorius/ReutersDR Congo strikes deal to accept US deportees
The agreements are part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration.
Senegal bans non-essential government travel due to fuel price surge
The West African country, which depends heavily on imported energy, has been hit by the growing cost of oil.
World Bank agrees $540M Uganda urbanization financing package
The funding aims to enhance all-weather roads, stormwater drainage, street lighting, and public markets.
Sahel coups push Africa to top of global democratic declines, report finds
The sharpest setbacks were linked to a wave of military takeovers in the Sahel and parts of central Africa, International IDEA said.
Security
Ann Wang/Reuters
David Dee Delgado/Reuters
NATO chief Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Taiwan faces tenuous defense future, ex-official warns
The island, which China claims as a regengade province, faces a political deadlock over a military spending bill.
Ann Wang/ReutersTrump fails to reassure investors on Iran war
Oil prices jumped and stocks fell after Trump’s address to the nation, in which he vowed to continue Iran attacks.
David Dee Delgado/ReutersTrump threatens to pull US out of NATO
The US president called the military alliance a ‘paper tiger’ for its refusal to back his war with Iran.
NATO chief Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. Jonathan Ernst/ReutersMediaJim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
Maryland’s biggest newspaper is going after the governor’s 2028 campaign
The owner of Maryland’s biggest paper and TV stations is keeping close tabs on his outlet’s investigation of Gov. Wes Moore.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images Joanna Stern on how AI told her to quit The Wall Street Journal
“It felt like the one big decision where I actually did trust AI,” she told Semafor’s “Mixed Signals” podcast.
Biden vet launches biweekly streaming show
Rob Flaherty and Jesse Lehrich will launch Nobody Knows Anything, a 90-minute biweekly show, later this month.
Axel Springer’s Döpfner courts UK conservative elites
The German mogul is courting regulators and the country’s influential conservative political figures as he attempts to get his bid to buy the Telegraph approved.
Substack rival Beehiiv makes a push into podcasting
Beehiiv has privately been reaching out to independent podcasters on Substack and other platforms.
CEO SignalCourtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of Okta/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of JLL/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Emma Walmsley on leading and leaving GSK
What does it take to hand over a company after years at the helm?
Courtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforThe three questions a CEO should ask about their AI agents
Okta’s Todd McKinnon sees a digital workforce creating new vulnerabilities.
Courtesy of Okta/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy JLL is betting its biggest clients will drive growth in ‘crazy’ times
Christian Ulbrich says companies succeed by reducing complexity for their clients.
Courtesy of JLL/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD