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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / Democrats start forging a post-Trump and post-Biden foreign policy
View / Anthropic takes the path of most resistance
The World at a Glance
Updated 7:02pm EDT
1
US President Donald Trump defended the Iran deal that offers concessions to Tehran, saying he wanted to avoid “economic catastrophe.”
2The presidents of both the US and Iran remotely signed the ceasefire agreement, which is now in effect.
3Global central banks’ responses to the Iran war’s energy crisis reveal different underlying concerns.
4The EU is increasingly united on the need for a tough approach to China.
5Trump said he would visit India soon, an apparent effort to smooth over rocky relations with New Delhi.
6The US Federal Reserve held rates steady as chair Kevin Warsh rolled out new initiatives at the central bank.
Banks opine on new capital rules
Thursday is the last day for banks to weigh in on US regulators’ latest proposal to overhaul capital requirements.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Republicans concerned about Iran deal
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., called the agreement “lousy.”
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters US and Iran officially sign the peace deal
The presidents of both countries signed the deal a day ahead of schedule, Axios reported.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersThe Fed’s Warsh era starts with a flurry of change, but steady rates
The central bank’s new chair reframed the decision as “price stability” while focusing on other projects.
Eric Lee/ReutersTrump defends Iran deal after markets forced his hand
US officials cautioned that either side could walk away before a final deal, and Trump threatened to bomb Iran if they misbehaved.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersAI CEOs pitch G7 leaders on global standards forum for advanced models
OpenAI’s Altman floated a forum to develop international guardrails over an hours-long lunch.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersTrump and Thune’s dynamic turns the Senate ‘very chaotic’
The increasing strain between the two Republican leaders is becoming a distraction and a frustration.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters
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Politics
Seth Bodnar in 2025. Michael Thomas Shroyer-Imagn Images
Jayla Whitfield-Anderson/Reuters Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Divided Montana Senate field helps Republicans
Democrats and independents are divided between two candidates running against Republican Kurt Alme.
Seth Bodnar in 2025. Michael Thomas Shroyer-Imagn ImagesAmericans increasingly struggle with healthcare costs, survey finds
The share of Americans who are secure about their healthcare costs fell to 49% last year, a new Gallup and West Health poll found.
Jayla Whitfield-Anderson/Reuters Banks opine on new capital rules
Thursday is the last day for banks to weigh in on US regulators’ latest proposal to overhaul capital requirements.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Republicans concerned about Iran deal
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., called the agreement “lousy.”
The Fed’s Warsh era starts with a flurry of change, but steady rates
The central bank’s new chair reframed the decision as “price stability” while focusing on other projects.
Trump and Thune’s dynamic turns the Senate ‘very chaotic’
The increasing strain between the two Republican leaders is becoming a distraction and a frustration.
Chris Murphy vs. the cults
The Connecticut senator thinks Democrats need to pick bigger fights.
Democrats start forging a post-Trump and post-Biden foreign policy
National security Democrats are eyeing a new future for the party’s foreign policy — and new personnel to run it.
US and Iran officially sign the peace deal
The presidents of both countries signed the deal a day ahead of schedule, Axios reported.
AI CEOs pitch G7 leaders on global standards forum for advanced models
OpenAI’s Altman floated a forum to develop international guardrails over an hours-long lunch.
Trump cancels hearing for replacement intel chief Clayton
The abrupt move is sure to rankle Senate Republicans.
Business
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Trump praises Modi as ‘angel,’ ‘killer’
Whether the thawing is substantive or “performative theater” from two strongman-style leaders remains to be seen.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersEU eyes unified China approach
Europe has long been nervous about cheap, state-subsidized Chinese goods undermining the continent’s manufacturing industries.
Global central banks grapple with war
While the booming US economy provides room for hikes, Europe risks slowing its already sluggish economy.
Trump defends Iran deal after markets forced his hand
US officials cautioned that either side could walk away before a final deal, and Trump threatened to bomb Iran if they misbehaved.
US Fed holds rates steady
The decision was an early test for new chair Kevin Warsh, who faces pressure from Trump to ease borrowing costs.
Technology
Anthropic exec Alex Albert at a Code with Claude event. Courtesy of Anthropic.
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Research pulls back curtain on Claude
“Only about 1.6% of Claude Code’s codebase constitutes AI decision logic, with the remaining 98.4% being operational infrastructure,” a research paper from April explains.
Anthropic exec Alex Albert at a Code with Claude event. Courtesy of Anthropic.Meta pursues muddled AI strategy
With massive borrowing to build data centers and without and enterprise business like Anthropic’s or OpenAI’s, the company’s AI strategy still doesn’t seem to make sense.
Dado Ruvic/ReutersAnthropic takes the path of most resistance
The company has miscalculated how it’s communicated with the Trump administration — and the general public — about its business.
The tech behind agentic commerce
CHEQ’s platform can figure out whether a website visitor is a bot or agent and identify what their intent is.
SpaceX wins big with Cursor
It’s likely xAI will want to develop Cursor into a full-blown harness that competes with Codex, Claude Cowork, and Google’s Antigravity.
France’s spy agency drops Palantir
Europe’s tech sovereignty concerns have risen after the US government blocked foreign nationals’ access to Anthropic’s frontier models.
EnergyEvelyn Hockstein/Reuters 
Stringer/Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
Trump defends Iran deal after markets forced his hand
US officials cautioned that either side could walk away before a final deal, and Trump threatened to bomb Iran if they misbehaved.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersHormuz will never really be open again
The global energy trade will never be the same.
Stringer/ReutersOil prices hit three-month low over US-Iran truce
Several major banks cut their oil price forecasts.
Stringer/ReutersGulfEvelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Trump defends Iran deal after markets forced his hand
US officials cautioned that either side could walk away before a final deal, and Trump threatened to bomb Iran if they misbehaved.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersOman-UAE trade gets wartime boost
Trade between the two countries jumped to nearly $3.8 billion in the first quarter, as Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed commerce onto land routes through the sultanate.
Dubai free zone looks to expand with focus on food security
Dubai Multi Commodities Centre has developed new hubs for traders in cacao, meat and protein, honey, and saffron, in a push beyond its historical dominance in gold and diamonds.
Abu Dhabi targets private infrastructure funds
The city launched a drive to bring 55 billion dirhams ($15 billion) of private capital into its infrastructure build-out.
Trump wants Iran in ‘rearview mirror’
Details of the ceasefire deal are still a mystery and Israel’s presence in Lebanon remains a thorny issue.
China
Kim Kyung-Hoon/Reuters
Go Nakamura/Reuters
Joe Skipper/Reuters
EU eyes unified China approach
Europe has long been nervous about cheap, state-subsidized Chinese goods undermining the continent’s manufacturing industries.
Kim Kyung-Hoon/ReutersChinese retail sales fall while industrial output rises
While tech-driven exports soar, domestic retail sales remain paltry.
Go Nakamura/ReutersHow the US wins against China
To win its superpower competition with China, Washington’s push for superiority in space may be its best bet.
Joe Skipper/ReutersAfrica
Carlo Allegri/Reuters
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
The distant shocks squeezing African economies
When the US Federal Reserve announces the central bank’s decision on interest rate, the impact will reverberate across African capitals.
Carlo Allegri/ReutersNigeria’s Dangote secures $600M for fertilizer arm
Dangote’s Lagos’ plant produces 3 million metric tonnes of fertilizer annually, a key supplier as the continent seeks to wean itself off imports in the wake of the Iran war.
Sodiq Adelakun/ReutersAfrica renewables projects stalled over credit rating rules
A financial rule known as the “sovereign ceiling” is curbing efforts to fund much-needed renewable energy projects on the continent.
Senegal’s Ousmane Sonko open to IMF debt talks
The comments appear suggest the former premier has eased his hardline stance as the country faces a debt crisis.
Kenya plan to sell citizens’ data draws criticism
Critics say the government is looking to make fast cash, and have raised privacy concerns. Nairobi says the plan will help modernize the economy.
Flutterwave aims to become Africa’s go-to fintech firm
The company was recently valued at $3.3 billion, and despite public interest in an IPO the CEO said a listing is not imminent.
Security
Yves Herman/Reuters
Vessels near Bandar Abbas, Iran. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA via Reuters
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Kin Cheung/Pool via Reuters
US’ Mythos restrictions heighten EU tech fears
The US government’s move to suspend foreign access to Anthropic’s powerful AI models injected fresh urgency into Europe’s plans for tech sovereignty.
Yves Herman/ReutersTrump announces peace deal with Iran
President Donald Trump on Sunday announced that the US and Iran had finalized a deal to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessels near Bandar Abbas, Iran. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA via ReutersJapan deepens defense ties with Europe
Japan and Europe are deepening defense ties amid growing unease over Washington’s security commitments, Russian aggression, and China’s surging power.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Kin Cheung/Pool via ReutersMedia
Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo/Reuters
Netflix wades into the M&A game
The streamer lost out on Roku, but has its eye on Lionsgate.
Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo/ReutersNew York Times’ Kristof quoted former campaign donors in columns
The paper had promised that Nick Kristof would disclose when someone he reported on was a donor to his Oregon gubernatorial campaign.
Progressive site Zeteo plans UK expansion
Zeteo UK is a standalone site that will begin publishing this week, with a hard launch date in September.
Politico folds E&E News ahead of broader energy push
In September, Politico plans to launch a series of energy-focused newsletters.
Former Gourmet magazine owner sues new Gourmet newsletter
Condé Nast filed a lawsuit against Goulash Unlimited, the LLC set up by the owners of a revived Gourmet site.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Honeywell/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Smith & Nephew/Graph Massara/Semafor
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Honeywell’s CEO on ‘the brutal truth’ about breaking up an industrial giant
Vimal Kapur says delegation and momentum are the keys to splitting a conglomerate.
Courtesy of Honeywell/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforDeepak Nath applies pressure at Smith and Nephew
The medtech CEO is standing by his company’s portfolio strategy despite calls to break it up.
Courtesy of Smith & Nephew/Graph Massara/SemaforHow Cisco’s Chuck Robbins gets his team to ‘disagree and commit’
The longstanding CEO says a bad decision that you reverse is better than a delay.
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD