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View / Investors see riches in rebuilding global rubble
Is the panic in private markets a contagion or a kingmaker?
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:31pm EDT
1
Oil prices ticked back up and stocks slid after Israel and Iran traded strikes, even as President Donald Trump touted diplomatic advances.
2The first Chinese-owned vessel passed through the Strait of Hormuz since Iran began letting a small number of ships navigate the waterway.
3The CEO of United Airlines warned airfares may increase by 20% amid a spike in jet fuel prices stemming from the Iran war.
4Volkswagen is pivoting from cars to military tech at one of its factories, as Germany’s auto sector scrambles to reinvent itself.
5Meta appointed its chief technology officer to drive AI adoption across its workforce, as the company looks to remove organizational layers and speed up work.
6A deadly collision between a plane and a fire truck at New York’s LaGuardia airport has highlighted the strain on US air traffic control.
Meta ramps up AI adoption push
Meta appointed its chief technology officer to oversee efforts to drive AI adoption across its workforce, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Meta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth. Carlos Barria/ReutersFetterman gets another potential Democratic challenger
Former Rep. Susan Wild is getting encouraged to run against the Pennsylvania senator, a person familiar with her thinking told Semafor.
Tierney Cross/Getty ImagesHow China’s economy is vulnerable to prolonged Hormuz closure
If the conflict drags on for months instead of weeks, China’s economy will be uniquely vulnerable because of its dependence on exports, a leading analyst argued.
Oil storage tanks in Ningbo. Go Nakamura/ReutersOil prices surge again after Iran denies holding US talks
Trump appears to be seeking a diplomatic off-ramp after he postponed a threat to attack Iran’s power plants.
Stringer/File Photo/ReutersMarkets relieved as Trump eases on Iran
Stocks rose and oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump eased his threats on Iran.
Brendan McDermid/ReutersUS robot-makers’ push to counter China ‘in a hold’ ahead of Trump-Xi summit
US robotics executives said they don’t expect any major policy action on China until Donald Trump’s now-delayed meeting with Xi Jinping.
Carlos Barria/ReutersBig Oil diverges from DC when it comes to the energy outlook
Oil executives and the Trump administration are presenting diverging outlooks for the global energy market.
Chairman of the Board and CEO of Chevron Mike Wirth. Kylie Cooper/Reuters
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Politics
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
Mohammed Torokman/ReutersTierney Cross/Getty Images
LaGuardia collision highlights US aviation woes
Federal investigators suggested that overlapping failures stemming from staffing and technology issues led to the deadly crash between a plane and a fire truck.
Shannon Stapleton/ReutersTrump touts Iran progress amid strikes
Oil prices ticked back up and stocks slid as Israel and Iran traded strikes.
Mohammed Torokman/ReutersFetterman gets another potential Democratic challenger
Former Rep. Susan Wild is getting encouraged to run against the Pennsylvania senator, a person familiar with her thinking told Semafor.
Tierney Cross/Getty ImagesSchumer indicates Democratic openness to Republicans’ DHS deal
It’s a delicate moment for the minority leader, whose members sense an opportunity to extract the maximum possible concessions.
Iran war a greater strategic ‘blunder’ than Iraq: ex-US official
The ongoing conflict has already upended the global economy and weakened Washington’s alliances, with long-term impacts likely.
US robot-makers’ push to counter China ‘in a hold’ ahead of Trump-Xi summit
US robotics executives said they don’t expect any major policy action on China until Donald Trump’s now-delayed meeting with Xi Jinping.
Americans sour on the job market, poll finds
Only 28% have confidence in the US job market, according to new Gallup polling, down from 70% in 2022.
Joe Kent continues to divide Trump base
The saga surrounding the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center is splitting some of the president’s staunchest supporters.
White House, Senate Republicans eye DHS funding deal
The deal would likely involve a funding agreement with Democrats to reopen most of the Department of Homeland Security, except for certain buckets of immigration enforcement.
US air travel chaos worsens over DHS shutdown
The chaos plaguing US airports deepened on Monday as travelers faced hours-long lines stemming from a partial government shutdown.
Europe quietly supports US campaign against Iran
US military bases in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Italy, France, and Greece are fueling and launching American bombers and drones.
Business
Issei Kato/Reuters
Jet fuel price spike means higher airfares
A spike in jet fuel prices stemming from the Iran war is passing through to consumers, resulting in more expensive airfares for summer travel, analysts said.
Issei Kato/ReutersVolkswagen inks Iron Dome deal in defense pivot
Volkswagen is pivoting from cars to military tech at one of its factories, a reflection of the challenges facing Germany’s auto sector.
Investors see riches in rebuilding global rubble
Carlyle’s James Stavridis told Semafor that the investment outlook in Iran and other conflict zones should be “taken very seriously.”
Prediction markets eye self-regulation
Kalshi and rival Polymarket are racing to police themselves before the government does it for them.
Is the panic in private markets a contagion or a kingmaker?
Wall Street’s push to manage money for everyday households is facing an existential test of confidence.
TechnologyMeta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth. Carlos Barria/Reuters 
NASA rendering
Meta ramps up AI adoption push
Meta appointed its chief technology officer to oversee efforts to drive AI adoption across its workforce, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Meta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth. Carlos Barria/ReutersNASA aims to build $20B lunar base
NASA is abandoning efforts to build a space station orbiting the Moon, and will instead put $20 billion toward a lunar base, officials announced Tuesday.
NASA renderingUS robot-makers’ push to counter China ‘in a hold’ ahead of Trump-Xi summit
US robotics executives said they don’t expect any major policy action on China until Donald Trump’s now-delayed meeting with Xi Jinping.
New VC fund to focus on prediction markets
The founders of the two biggest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are among the investors in 5c(c) Capital, which plans to raise up to $35 million.
OpenAI to nearly double headcount this year
OpenAI plans to nearly double its headcount to 8,000 employees this year, as the startup ramps up a push to sell its AI products to businesses, the Financial Times reported.
Ukraine makes territorial gains as Russia loses Starlink access
Ukraine has achieved its largest domestic territorial gains in more than two years after Elon Musk cut off Starlink internet service to Russian forces, showing how digital infrastructure is redefining the modern battlefield.
Energy
Carlos Barria/Reuters
Prapan Chankaew/Reuters
Sodiq Adelakun/File Photo/Reuters
US grid grows more vulnerable to cyberattacks
The Department of Energy is working to share more threat intelligence with utilities, a senior US energy official told Semafor.
Carlos Barria/ReutersSolar is Southeast Asia’s cheapest buffer against future shocks
Gas generation is projected to double in the region, reaching 200GW under ASEAN’s 2030 energy transition scenario.
Prapan Chankaew/ReutersNigeria set to gain from oil price surge owing to fuel subsidy cuts
Nigeria’s decision to scrap fuel subsidies makes it a more attractive destination for energy investors, the top energy advisor to President Bola Tinubu told Semafor.
Sodiq Adelakun/File Photo/ReutersGulf
Trump and MBS in 2025. Tom Brenner/Reuters.
Saudi promotes Trump ties in Miami, even as war rages
Trump’s scheduled attendance at a Saudi investment conference in Miami this week could solidify the Gulf country’s ties to the US administration, despite a war Riyadh didn’t want.
Trump and MBS in 2025. Tom Brenner/Reuters.Dubai hotel occupancy plummets as war grips region
Hotels have shut floors or entire buildings, cut staff costs, and are offering steep discounts to residents as they prepare for a prolonged slump.
Saudi Arabia opens land and sea trade routes to UAE
The need to cooperate on logistics is helping to reset Riyadh’s fractured relations with the UAE.
Airlines take evasive action to maintain travel flow in the Gulf
Journeys to the airport have become complicated for many Gulf travelers, often involving crossing into a neighboring country where airspace remains open.
Attack on Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar jolts gas markets
The consequences of the attack will affect the global economy until the end of the decade.
Africa
Luc Gnago/Reuters
The Next 3 Billion on Tour Series: Nairobi Edition | Semafor Events
Semafor will convene leaders to advance the conversation on financial inclusion at the intersection of long-term capital, policy, and financial infrastructure.
Africa’s push for a $40 smartphone and the lessons from China
The campaign led by Africa’s biggest mobile networks is one of the most consequential digital policy developments on the continent in years.
Luc Gnago/ReutersChina urges companies to strengthen Zimbabwe compliance
Beijing’s move, which follows Harare’s curbs on lithium exports, is an acknowledgement that even its closest African partners can impose abrupt policy shifts.
US shifts ties with DRC, Rwanda
Washington recently sanctioned elements of Rwanda’s military and reopened limited security cooperation with Kinshasa.
Absa bank plans African expansion
The South African told Semafor that Ghana and Zambia were emerging from financial crises with clear reform paths and stronger private sector appetite.
Iran war drives interest in Dangote refinery fuel
South Africa, the continent’s largest fuel importer, inquired about a 12-month supply contract with the Lagos-based refinery.
Security
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/Reuters
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Omar Sanadiki/Reuters
Europe quietly supports US campaign against Iran
US military bases in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Italy, France, and Greece are fueling and launching American bombers and drones.
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/ReutersIsrael kills Iran intel chief
Esmail Khatib’s death came within 24 hours of Israeli strikes taking out Iran’s security chief and the head of its feared paramilitary force.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via ReutersIsrael kills powerful Iran security chief
Ali Larijani ran Iran’s national security council and was seen as the country’s de facto leader after the former ayatollah was assassinated.
Omar Sanadiki/ReutersMedia
Screenshot of Vox’s website
Vox Media tried to sell its podcasts, and itself
The company now says its podcast network is not for sale.
Screenshot of Vox’s website Newsom calls FCC chairman’s threats ‘sick’
The California governor argued people from all political perspectives should be concerned about federal regulators weighing in on news content.
Why (and how) everyone is cold-calling the president
Plus, what happened when Semafor’s Max Tani gave him a ring.
Oscars mask a Hollywood in crisis
As Hollywood celebrates the Oscars on Sunday, the glitz masks a deeper crisis for the entertainment industry: rising production costs.
AI is the latest gatekeeper between brands and buyers
Companies are now writing ad copy for bots, not people, and those bots are telling consumers what products to buy.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Why CEOs should care about the quantum ‘space race’
IonQ’s Niccolo de Masi says getting quantum security right is ‘a matter of survivability.’
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor How Brian Niccol jolted Starbucks back to growth
Corporate turnarounds require quick decisions and ‘brutal’ feedback for the CEO, Niccol said in the first episode of Semafor’s ‘CEO Signal’ show.
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Kyle Clark got BETA’s air taxis ready for takeoff
The electric aircraft company’s CEO has a ‘burn-the-boats’ approach to decision-making.
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD