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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 7:51am EDT
1
Gulf and European leaders say an Iran peace deal could take six months, as they urged a ceasefire extension.
2France and the UK will host a summit to discuss securing the Strait of Hormuz, though the US will not join.
3The Iran war is looming over China’s biggest trade fair, as Beijing seeks to bolster trade ties to counter its impact.
4The IMF and the World Bank are resuming relations with Venezuela after a six year-pause, potentially unlocking billions in financing.
5Falling cocoa prices have hit the world’s largest chocolate maker, which supplies Nestlé and Unilever.
6A breakthrough Alzheimer’s treatment has no clinically meaningful effect, researchers found, after the FDA approved one of the drugs.
Investors are underestimating global economic impacts of Iran war, top executives warn
The head of the London Stock Exchange said at Semafor World Economy Thursday that markets have adopted a sense of “rational complacency” that threatens to “tip over into irrational complacency.”
Kris Tripplaar/SemaforGreer: Trump administration wants to be ‘pragmatic’ on China
“We live in the real world,” the US trade representative told Semafor World Economy.
Kris Tripplaar/Semafor10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon takes hold
The announcement follows weeks of war, though it was unclear if Hezbollah would agree to the truce terms.
Florion Goga/ReutersIran will control Strait of Hormuz after war, former Biden adviser says
Tehran won’t give up its economic leverage, Amos Hochstein said at Semafor World Economy.
Annabelle Gordon/SemaforSome private credit funds have misrepresented liquidity to retail investors, Goldman’s Waldron says
Without an economic problem, “we’re not going to have a big problem in private credit,” the Goldman Sachs president said at Semafor World Economy.
Kris Tripplaar/SemaforNobody should control the Strait of Hormuz, UAE minister says
The waterway’s disruption is a global crisis, Minister of State for International Cooperation Reem Al Hashimy said at Semafor World Economy.
Annabelle Gordon/SemaforHyundai-LG opening battery plant after US ICE raid causes monthslong delays
CEO José Muñoz told Semafor World Economy that he has three top priorities for Hyundai: “U.S.A.”
Kris Tripplaar/Semafor
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Politics
Screenshot/Majority Forward Videos/YouTube
Kylie Cooper/ReutersFlorion Goga/Reuters
Democratic group dings Collins on Iran in new ad
The ad urges the Maine Republican senator to “stop supporting Trump’s war, Mainers can’t afford it.”
Screenshot/Majority Forward Videos/YouTubeState pressed on reported plan to condition health aid to Zambia
Three Democratic senators expressed concerns to Rubio about a push to gain access to the African country’s copper mines.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon takes hold
The announcement follows weeks of war, though it was unclear if Hezbollah would agree to the truce terms.
Florion Goga/ReutersDemocrats wield power on national security votes
Democrats are weighing how to use their ample leverage on expiring surveillance powers and Iran funding.
Greer: Trump administration wants to be ‘pragmatic’ on China
“We live in the real world,” the US trade representative told Semafor World Economy.
Trump renews his threat to fire Jerome Powell
US President Donald Trump said he would fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he doesn’t step aside when his term expires next month, a move critics say would undermine the central bank’s independence.
Black Democrats want a post-Trump plan. The candidates are working on it.
Nearly a dozen potential presidential contenders showed up at Rev. Al Sharpton’s conference to talk to a deeply influential bloc of the party.
Bipartisan group of senators defends USMCA
More than three dozen senators will urge the Trump administration to extend the pact.
Immigration funding plan risks stranding Pentagon money
Senate Republicans’ plan for a quick-strike immigration enforcement funding bill could complicate plans to restock the Pentagon’s coffers.
Trump slams Meloni over pope, Iran
The US leader said Giorgia Meloni lacked “courage” for failing to join his war against Iran.
How Virginia redistricting got harder than Democrats wanted
Gov. Abigail Spanberger is pushing for a referendum on Trump’s nationwide pro-Republican remaps. Her opponents want a referendum on her.
Business
Yves Herman/Reuters
EU seeks to relax corporate merger rules
The EU is planning a “radical shake-up” of corporate merger guidelines, as it seeks to build global champions capable of competing with US and Chinese firms, the Financial Times reported.
Yves Herman/ReutersEurope down to six weeks of jet fuel, IEA chief says
The continent is the biggest buyer of jet fuel that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving it exposed to supply shocks.
Arvind Krishna, IBM CEO, on Big Bets, AI, and Quantum
Most CEOs have not woken up to the fact that technology is as important as their balance sheet, the IBM Chairman and CEO says in the latest episode of The CEO Signal.
Greer: Trump administration wants to be ‘pragmatic’ on China
“We live in the real world,” the US trade representative told Semafor World Economy.
Executives downplay fears of systemic private credit crisis
Executives at Semafor World Economy dismissed fears that private credit market jitters are a sign of a systemic crisis.
Technology
Jason Reed JIR/Reuters
Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor
CIA creates first intelligence report written without humans
The US intelligence agency may have been the first to write a report using AI, with no human involvement.
Jason Reed JIR/ReutersAI is making chief tech officers and chief human resources officers work together
As more AI agents are employed in businesses, top executives are increasingly having to find common ground to manage the workforce.
Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for SemaforWhy it pays to fund the wrong research
The administration needs to be okay with funding research that might prove useful many decades in the future.
CEOs are embracing AI agents as cyber risks grow
Swarms of such agents could create “an enormous mess” for cybersecurity, one executive said at Semafor World Economy.
Pancreatic cancer drug doubles median survival time
Most patients die within months of diagnosis; daraxonrasib boosted survival from six months to 13.
Hyundai’s US EV sales up 40%
EV demand is partly due to rising fuel prices, after sales fell following the US ending its $7,500 tax credit to Americans buying the cars last year.
Energy
REUTERS/File Photo
Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor
Jim Vondruska/Reuters
The Hormuz crisis is far from over
It will take a lot more than political pronouncements to get oil flowing again.
REUTERS/File PhotoCut red tape to meet climate tech needs, executives say
Executives from clean energy startups said at Semafor World Economy that the regulatory environment for new clean tech needs to improve.
Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for SemaforThe US gets riskier for energy investors
US consumers have largely been insulated from the worst impacts of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, but the country lags behind China in cheap electricity production.
Jim Vondruska/ReutersGulfFlorion Goga/Reuters
10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon takes hold
The announcement follows weeks of war, though it was unclear if Hezbollah would agree to the truce terms.
Florion Goga/ReutersAI firm Domyn bets on regulated industries to chase $1 trillion future
Backed by Abu Dhabi’s G42, the European startup launched a new model for finance, healthcare, government, and defense clients.
Optimism rises on Iran, Lebanon diplomacy
Stocks surged on Wednesday as prospects rose for peace in two Middle East conflicts.
Executives signal optimism over the Gulf’s postwar outlook
The Gulf region can bounce back from the Iran war, and possibly emerge stronger, business leaders said Tuesday.
Israel and Lebanon hold direct talks without breakthrough
Israel and Lebanon held their first direct diplomatic talks since 1993, though the meeting didn’t result in a major breakthrough to end a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Africa
South Africa’s central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor.
Ken Cedeno/Reuters
South Africa’s Kganyago rejects ‘wait-and-see’ approach
South Africa’s central bank governor Letsetja Kganyago told Semafor World Economy the bank could not be “complacent.”
South Africa’s central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor.War sends Africa debt costs spiraling
The Iran war is raising debt costs for African countries, sparking warnings that some economies could default as interest rates soar.
Ken Cedeno/ReutersDR Congo miner commits more copper to US
The 500,000-tonne pledge would come through Gécamines’ joint venture with Swiss commodities trading company Mercuria.
South Africa can hit 4% growth, Standard Bank CEO says
Sim Tshabalala told Semafor World Economy that changes at state-owned power and logistics companies had improved efficiency.
The cost of borrowing has skyrocketed for African nations
The average cost of external borrowing in Africa has nearly doubled in four years, according to a new report from ONE Data and The Rockefeller Foundation.
South Africa slips in emerging market investment ranks
The drop was fueled by contraction in the country’s mining sector, as global trade tensions have impacted demand for South African mineral exports.
Security
Frank Simon/Reuters
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Henry Romero/Reuters
New EU rules spark airport delays
Travelers from non-EU countries must register their personal information and biometrics the first time they enter the bloc.
Frank Simon/ReutersIran internet blackout enters 46th day, straining economy
Iran’s internet blackout is now among the longest ever recorded.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersMurders drop in Mexico, minting a new political star
The country’s security minister, Omar García Harfuch, has become one of Mexico’s most popular politicians.
Henry Romero/ReutersMedia
Mike Blake and Mike Segar/Reuters
CNN backpedals after booker turns away guest for merger segment
“No one advised any editorial employee at CNN not to pursue this story,” a CNN spokesperson said.
Mike Blake and Mike Segar/ReutersWriter of media newsletter recapping media newsletters suspended after errors
Mediaite’s One Sheet newsletter has grown increasingly error-prone.
Gulf media crackdown sanitizes images of the war
Some international wires have halted conflict photography in the UAE since the arrest of photojournalists there.
How Bluesky earned its reputation — and why it could be the way of the future
Bluesky COO Rose Wang on how her company got to 40 million users.
Democrats pressure Pentagon over new media restrictions
Democratic lawmakers are pressing the Pentagon and leaders at Stars and Stripes to share whether the department is censoring stories at the historic military newspaper.
CEO Signal
Issei Kato/Reuters 
Ancestry/YouTube
Richard Bord/Getty Images for Cannes Lions
How Ivan Espinosa got Nissan to face reality
Nissan’s vehicle sales and share price have plummeted. Espinosa has a mandate to turn them around.
Issei Kato/Reuters How old records and new AI technology brought growth back to Ancestry
CEO Howard Hochhauser says the site had stopped listening to its customers.
Ancestry/YouTubeRichard Edelman on trust, ‘Succession,’ and how to advise a CEO
The C-suite adviser says clients should spend more time hearing their critics.
Richard Bord/Getty Images for Cannes LionsAD