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View / Prediction markets are rebuilding insurance
View / One of Trump’s key oil market fixes is about to break
The World at a Glance
Updated 9:53am EDT
1
OpenAI joined rival Anthropic both in filing for an IPO and calling for a potential slowdown in frontier AI development.
2China’s exports beat expectations as the global AI boom fed demand for Chinese chips, EVs, and other high-tech components.
3Donald Trump said he remained confident a deal with Tehran could be reached soon, but analysts voiced skepticism.
4A Somali referee was denied entry to the US and will not participate in the men’s soccer World Cup, which begins this week.
5GSK bought cancer drugmaker Nuvalent for $10.6 billion, a sign of the growing importance of cancer in the pharma market.
6The Pentagon added some of China’s biggest companies to a blacklist of firms accused of aiding Beijing’s military.
Anthropic releases guardrailed version of Mythos for public use
The company acknowledged that without safeguards, Fable 5 was a dangerous model in the hands of bad actors.
Denis Balibouse/ReutersOpenAI files for IPO amid intensifying AI race
OpenAI and Anthropic’s impending public offerings, as well as SpaceX’s, are expected to be among the biggest in history.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersKlarna on the fight for ‘top of wallet’ in an AI agentic commerce world
CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski thinks there’s still a place for brand loyalty and perks in a bot shopping world. Up next: Klarna airport lounges?
US block of World Cup referee from Somalia prompts scrutiny
Omar Abdulkadir Artan “was determined to be inadmissible due to vetting concerns,” the Trump administration said.
Somalis hold pictures of referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan. Feisal Omar/ReutersDemocrats aren’t winning the foreign policy argument, group says
Democrats need to revamp their message if they want to capitalize on voter angst over the war in Iran, the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way writes.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Republicans want Trump and Netanyahu to smooth things over
The party that revels in Democratic divisions over Israel is in an awkward spot as its president splits from the prime minister over the war.
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersGulf tourism limps back from war
Flights have returned, with Etihad and Emirates back close to their prewar capacity, but the war is hammering their profits, and hotels are even worse off.
Tourists in Dubai in 2023. Beata Zawrzel/Reuters.
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Politics
Jacquelyn Martin/Reuters
Evan Vucci/Reuters 
Evan Vucci/Reuters
House prediction market ban faces turbulence
One Democrat said his party would likely oppose it in the hopes of passing a stronger ban next year.
Jacquelyn Martin/ReutersGreer heads to Silicon Valley to promote onshoring
The US trade representative will tour manufacturing facilities.
Evan Vucci/Reuters Some Republicans want Pulte out for intelligence job
“Democrats are not going to vote to pass [a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act extension] until he’s withdrawn,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
Evan Vucci/Reuters Democrats aren’t winning the foreign policy argument, group says
Democrats need to revamp their message if they want to capitalize on voter angst over the war in Iran, the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way writes.
Republicans want Trump and Netanyahu to smooth things over
The party that revels in Democratic divisions over Israel is in an awkward spot as its president splits from the prime minister over the war.
The West’s age of ‘hyperpolitics’
The West is in an age of “hyperpolitics” in which polarization has surged but institutions are incapable of delivering change, a leading researcher argued.
Politicians couldn’t keep kids off social media. They’ll try again with AI.
Leaders of both parties in Washington and in state capitals are confronting AI before it becomes as omnipresent as vertical video.
Democrat McCann pulls ahead in key House race
Bill Huizenga, who won his seat by nearly 12 points in 2024, has long been a target for House Democrats’ campaign arm.
Beleaguered in DC, Platner enters his comfort zone
Democrats’ presumptive Senate nominee in Maine isn’t going anywhere, despite the wishes of some in his party.
Surveillance tools expiration bears down on Senate
Democrats want to use their leverage to get Bill Pulte replaced as interim director of national intelligence.
Inside Altman’s pitch on government AI stake
OpenAI’s Sam Altman last year offered to cede equity in his firm to the Trump administration.
Business
George Frey/Reuters
Meta reskills as AI job fears grow
Launch sites are in places where Meta is building data centers, some of which have faced resistance from local communities.
George Frey/ReutersSam Bankman-Fried seeks Trump pardon
Trump told The New York Times last year that he wouldn’t pardon the dethroned crypto king.
AI startups race to IPO
The sheer amount of money these AI giants will need raises concerns they’ll crowd out fast followers.
Prediction markets are rebuilding insurance and it’s getting weird
The fact that a soccer team’s hedge against its own relegation to a lower league ended up on Kalshi instead of at Lloyd’s of London is a sign of prediction markets’ utility, not their seediness.
Billionaire financier Todd Boehly weighs bid for NFL’s Seattle Seahawks
LA Lakers and Dodgers co-owner eyes Seahawks in an auction that’s likely to be the biggest in NFL history.
TechnologyDenis Balibouse/Reuters Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Anthropic releases guardrailed version of Mythos for public use
The company acknowledged that without safeguards, Fable 5 was a dangerous model in the hands of bad actors.
Denis Balibouse/ReutersOpenAI files for IPO amid intensifying AI race
OpenAI and Anthropic’s impending public offerings, as well as SpaceX’s, are expected to be among the biggest in history.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersOpenAI files to go public in major test of AI investment boom
The ChatGPT-maker filed confidentially for an IPO one week after its rival Anthropic.
Apple shares fall on Siri’s AI upgrade
Many of the new AI features Apple announced were similar to advances that were previously unveiled and delayed.
SpaceX IPO a boon for banks, ultrarich
Like with many IPOs, most individual investors won’t get in at the offering share price.
Chip stocks rose on Monday, following last week’s selloff
The rebound was a sign that the AI-powered bull run isn’t coming to an end any time soon.
Energy
Drone Base/Reuters
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Joe Penney/Reuters
One of Trump’s key oil market fixes is about to break
An uncomfortable energy deadline is looming for the White House.
Drone Base/ReutersOil prices ease as Israel and Iran pause strikes
There still remains little sign of progress toward a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersUranium mining market heats up amid nuclear-powered data centers bet
The gap between supply and demand in uranium production is widening.
Joe Penney/ReutersGulf
Akhtar Soomro/Reuters
Saudi investors eye Pakistan port deal
The deal, which would create a 140-acre industrial park in Pakistan’s port city of Karachi, is a further sign of warming ties between the two countries.
Akhtar Soomro/ReutersSaudi’s first major wartime IPO scrapped
Mutlaq Al-Ghowairi Contracting Co said it had attracted enough demand to cover its $799 million share sale, but decided to pull the offering “after careful consideration.”
UAE employers plan to cut staff, pushed by uncertainty
A survey of 546 firms from US recruiting firm ManpowerGroup offers a rare forward-looking read on sentiment.
Gulf tourism limps back from war
Flights have returned, with Etihad and Emirates back close to their prewar capacity, but the war is hammering their profits, and hotels are even worse off.
China is keeping oil markets balanced
Oil market dynamics were mostly influenced by supplies. The Iran war is testing whether demand-side management is also possible.
China
Tingshu Wang/Reuters
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
Aly Song/Reuters
China exports beat forecasts amid global AI boom
Year-on-year exports jumped by close to 20%, driven partly by a 110% surge in semiconductor shipments.
Tingshu Wang/ReutersGermany bears the brunt of China Shock 2.0
As Western economies scramble to defend themselves against the second China shock, their corporate and national interests are again radically at odds.
Shannon Stapleton/ReutersPentagon blacklists some of China’s biggest tech firms
The entrants to the list include Alibaba and Baidu, EV behemoth BYD, a leading robot-maker, and a top biotech firm.
Aly Song/ReutersAfricaSomalis hold pictures of referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan. Feisal Omar/Reuters 
Ivan Alvarado/Reuters
US block of World Cup referee from Somalia prompts scrutiny
Omar Abdulkadir Artan “was determined to be inadmissible due to vetting concerns,” the Trump administration said.
Somalis hold pictures of referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan. Feisal Omar/ReutersFIFA bans use of vuvuzelas at World Cup
The vuvuzela became a symbol of South African football following its widespread use in the 2010 World Cup, which was hosted in the country.
Ivan Alvarado/ReutersEuropean DFIs lead Africa’s private capital funds
The data underscores the continent’s continuing dependence on foreign capital for private investment.
Iran war disrupts phone shipments to Africa
Shipments of African mobile phones have slowed to their lowest level in two years, research firm Omdia said.
GOP proposes State Department Africa staff revamp
Republicans are looking to bolster Washington’s diplomatic capacity on a continent where the US is struggling to keep pace with rivals.
The paradox of Africa’s millionaire growth
More entrepreneurs are getting rich despite difficult conditions, yet many remain reluctant to keep their capital in the markets that made them wealthy.
Security
Ammar Awad/Reuters
Adnan Abidi/Reuters
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Iran says it has halted strikes on Israel
Oil prices jumped 5% and stocks fell on the news.
Ammar Awad/ReutersIndia ‘cockroach’ party attracts discontented youth
The Cockroach Janta Party was started by a recent Boston University graduate after India’s chief justice compared young unemployed Indians to cockroaches.
Adnan Abidi/ReutersUS defense secretary attacks European allies in D-Day speech
Speaking in France on Saturday, Pete Hegseth decried a modern “invasion” of “boats and men.”
Elizabeth Frantz/ReutersMedia
Eleanor Kaufman/Semafor
Progressive site Zeteo plans UK expansion
Zeteo UK is a standalone site that will begin publishing this week, with a hard launch date in September.
Eleanor Kaufman/SemaforPolitico folds E&E News ahead of broader energy push
In September, Politico plans to launch a series of energy-focused newsletters.
Former Gourmet magazine owner sues new Gourmet newsletter
Condé Nast filed a lawsuit against Goulash Unlimited, the LLC set up by the owners of a revived Gourmet site.
CBS News in the crossfire
Within the network, every editorial decision has been scrutinized by CBS’ own staff.
Kalshi asks paid influencers to delete posts sowing doubts over LA mayoral election
Kalshi and Polymarket have enlisted hundreds of paid influencers to spur interest in everything from sporting events to political races.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Smith & Nephew/Graph Massara/Semafor
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Match Group/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Deepak Nath applies pressure at Smith and Nephew
The medtech CEO is standing by his company’s portfolio strategy despite calls to break it up.
Courtesy of Smith & Nephew/Graph Massara/SemaforHow Cisco’s Chuck Robbins gets his team to ‘disagree and commit’
The longstanding CEO says a bad decision that you reverse is better than a delay.
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy an anxious AI romantic now drives Match Group’s dating apps
CEO Spencer Rascoff uses digital “personas” to help the Tinder owner understand its users.
Courtesy of Match Group/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD