Washington, DC

1. War funding fight
2. Trump’s options narrow
3. Data center backlash
4. Wild Wisconsin
5. Trading on the midterms

Shares of Constellation Energy ▲ 5% after Trump’s deal to let US companies build Saudi nuclear plants.

Trump nears war funding crisis

President Donald Trump’s administration is barreling toward a war funding crisis, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott, Burgess Everett, and Nicholas Wu report. Chances are slim that he’ll get congressional approval for more defense money anytime soon. House Republicans are on the verge of passing a budget today that sets up more than $70 billion in new military funding, intended to cushion the stress of the expanding war. But the Senate is balking at that budget, leaving lawmakers far from agreement on a binding piece of legislation that can get 50 GOP votes. “I don’t know how much is for, you know, yesterday’s war, and what’s for tomorrow’s war,” Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., told Semafor. “So suffice it to say, I’ve begun my investigation, but I can’t tell you I have a good sense of it.”

Trump threatens civilian infrastructure in Iran

Trump torqued his war rhetoric today, threatening to target civilian infrastructure if Iran doesn’t loosen its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. “From this point forward, any time the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by Missile, Rocket, Drone, or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT,” Trump posted on Truth Social. The US has already targeted bridges in recent strikes, underscoring how few options remain for Trump to end the conflict. Though Trump maintains the war is about denying Iran its nuclear ambitions, the fighting for now is about reopening the strait and stabilizing the flow of oil and gas out of the Gulf. Crude crossed $95 a barrel today as gas prices passed $4 a gallon.

Republican senator rails against AI data centers

Americans are “on fire” against AI data centers, Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., said of his constituents at Semafor’s World of Work event today, offering support for the growing number of local moratoriums in the state. “Several dozen counties have placed moratoriums [on data centers],” Marshall, who is up for reelection this cycle, told Semafor’s Burgess Everett. “I certainly support their moratoriums.” The backlash to data centers in both political parties threatens to slow the US AI industry, which relies heavily on the domestic infrastructure to power its systems. Marshall added that he opposes tax incentives for data centers, arguing that they strain local infrastructure while creating few permanent jobs after being built. However, Marshall didn’t go so far as to support statewide moratoriums on data center construction, like the one imposed by Gov. Kathy Hochul, D-N.Y., earlier this month.

Wisconsin Democratic primary gets wilder

Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., put it mildly when describing the Democratic gubernatorial primary battle in her state: “There’s a new headline every couple days,” she told Semafor’s Burgess Everett, who asked if she planned to make an endorsement in the chaotic race. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley recently rejoined it with the backing of Gov. Tony Evers, just days after withdrawing. “I am not putting my thumb on the scale at this moment in time,” Baldwin said. Crowley stepped into the establishment lane left open by Sara Rodriguez, who dropped out over an accounting disaster. He’s challenging Francesca Hong, a socialist state legislator being boosted by $2.2 million from a Republican-aligned PAC. Today, NBC News scooped that Crowley may have his own vulnerabilities; he once set up an X burner account called “Dirt McGirk” that made crude references about women and LGBTQ people.

Prediction platforms defend ballot betting

Kalshi accused the Wisconsin Election Commission of voter suppression after the agency warned voters it is illegal to vote in an election they’ve made a bet on. Yesterday, the commission cited a state law that disqualifies voters who have “made or become interested… in any bet or wager depending upon the result of the election,” saying trades on prediction markets fall under that prohibition. Kalshi rejected the interpretation, saying the commission “should retract this guidance before courts are required to force them to do so.” Polymarket also said it would challenge the claims “through the appropriate legal process.” There are laws on the books in at least 32 states that ban betting on elections under certain circumstances, according to Pew Research Center. But election gambling is exploding: Users have already traded nearly $200 million on midterm elections on prediction market platforms.

— Lauren Morganbesser

Semafor has announced the expanded Global Advisory Board for Silicon Valley & The World — a first-of-its-kind, multi-year initiative bringing together the leaders building transformative technologies with the policymakers shaping how they are deployed. With more than 40 global figures joining the board — including Patrick Collison, Daniel Ek, Jane Fraser, Andy Jassy, Jay Y. Lee, Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara, Gina Raimondo, Aravind Srinivas, and Hiroki Totoki, alongside co-chairs Jensen Huang, Divesh Makan, Satya Nadella, Ruth Porat, and Lisa Su — this group reflects the full spectrum of power driving the AI economy. Designed to move the conversation beyond debate, the platform will bring together more than 350 founders, CEOs, investors, and policymakers in November, uniting the leaders with the ability to fund, scale, and implement new ideas.

White House

• The Trump administration ignored warnings from Commerce Department staffers about the security risks of giving the UAE access to advanced US technology. — Politico

Campaigns

• Congressional Democrats, led by Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., are looking to close alleged loopholes created by the 2010 Citizens United Supreme Court decision that they say allow foreign entities to funnel money into the US elections. — CNBC

Courts

• A federal judge set the date for next June for the criminal trial of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

World

• The Trump administration is weighing military action in Mali to target an al-Qaeda-affiliated group. — WaPo
• Houthi militants deployed missiles in the Red Sea after days of escalating threats.
• The US has said little about what it’s done with the more than $13 billion in Venezuelan oil revenue it has collected this year. — FT
• EU antitrust regulators gave the green light to Paramount’s merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, as US states seek to block it.

Technology

• Nvidia’s Jensen Huang told Axios that American companies should “absolutely” be allowed to use Chinese models.
• Donald Trump Jr.’s investment firm has seen returns above 200%, fueled by investments in AI and prediction markets. — NYT
• The State Department is telling diplomats to downplay talk of a US “kill switch” baked into American tech. — Reuters

Immigration

• Morale within ICE is plummeting. — Washington Examiner

Health

• The FDA is investigating another cyclospora outbreak. — Bloomberg

— Microsoft Corporate Vice President of Workforce Transformation Katy George at Semafor’s The World of Work event.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel