1. Escalating energy war
2. Zero Hormuz
3. LNG shuttling
4. Clean energy boom
5. Rethinking energy security

China curbs solar tech exports, and an interesting new dispatch from Ukraine.

The energy beat, which covers the engines of the global economy, has always been boisterous and erratic. But as Semafor turns four years old this week, we’re hitting the gas into an ever more volatile energy future.

Back in late 2022, US President Joe Biden had just signed the Inflation Reduction Act aimed at supercharging the country’s clean energy industries. Europe was just beginning to recover from an unprecedented surge in natural gas prices brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the wave of attacks that would decimate Ukraine’s grid had just begun. AI’s anticipated energy footprint was becoming clearer, but the real incursion of data centers into backyards and power bills was still on the horizon. The world seemed oversupplied with oil, and the Strait of Hormuz was blissfully off most peoples’ radars. Sustainability and carbon reductions were, however fleetingly, near the top of many CEO’s agendas.

Most of these storylines have hit hard pivots in the ensuing years. The tradeoffs that consumers, policymakers, and business leaders are being forced to weigh between energy security, sustainability, and affordability have become more complex, and with higher stakes. Our mission is to give an audience of energy decision-makers a glimpse around the corner through business-oriented scoops and timely, fair analysis. We draw in views from our peerless colleagues in Africa, Asia, the Gulf, Washington, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley, and always leave room for reasonable disagreement. That’s how Semafor has been able to grow to 1.2 million global subscriptions to our briefings, and attracted more than 16,000 people to our convenings around the world.

Some things haven’t changed, however: I’m still preoccupied by energy wars, with more sure to come — a subject I discussed on the latest episode of our friend Jigar Shah’s podcast. Meanwhile, a global buildout of energy infrastructure not seen for a century is underway. Leadership change in the US could usher in a new era of energy-related legislative and oversight battles. El Niño promises a challenging few months ahead for many countries — some people may have forgotten about climate change but it hasn’t forgotten about us. Clean energy businesses worldwide, including in the US, are thriving, innovating, and fundraising like never before. China still dominates many critical supply chains. We haven’t seen the tip of the iceberg on AI.

I’ll continue to drive these stories forward from my usual post here in Kyiv and around the world (see you at ADIPEC and COP31!). Thank you so much for your time, attention, tips, encouragement, and, as needed, repudiations and corrections. See you on this rollercoaster soon.

Emergency reserves hit new low

US strategic oil reserves hit their lowest point since 1982 and global oil prices reached a five-month high as attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz surged and the market shrugged off US President Donald Trump’s efforts to squeeze more oil from Russia. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday defended Trump’s diesel deal with Moscow as a “carrot” for peace, and his decision to suspend new sanctions on buyers of Russia crude as necessary for maintaining flexibility in trade talks with China. The administration is also considering relaxing some sanctions on Russian “shadow fleet” tankers and pushing European countries to resume buying gas from Russia, The New York Times reported.

Taken together, the moves show that Moscow’s energy weapon remains powerful, even though Ukrainian drone attacks knocked out more than half of Russia’s refining capacity this month. Rising global prices and shipping workarounds have kept its fossil fuel export revenues relatively low, but steady, despite the disruptions.

In the week since Trump unilaterally announced an “energy ceasefire,” meanwhile, Russia has hit Ukraine’s power and gas infrastructure at least 76 times, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. For Trump, a bigger problem is blowback from Republicans, some of whom have threatened to hold up Pentagon funding unless energy concessions to Moscow are rolled back.

Fujairah central to ‘Zero Hormuz’

Standing aboard one of the large tugboats used to guide giant crude tankers into Fujairah’s port, I could see the UAE’s race toward its “Zero Hormuz” strategy in every direction. Most of the UAE’s crude loads at this port, while cargo for the country’s 10 million residents arrives here and at other terminals along the Gulf of Oman. On the horizon, ship-to-ship transfers are surging, up from a handful before the war to around 120 in September.

Fujairah — one of the UAE’s poorer emirates, better known for its low-cost resorts and mountain escapes — is at the center of a regional push to reduce Iran’s leverage over Gulf trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Geography has become the port’s biggest asset, and it’s not alone: Saudi Arabia is expanding its pipeline network, and Kuwait is in talks with Riyadh and the UAE to move crude through their respective links. Oman is also a likely beneficiary of the Hormuz disruption, with separate pipeline plans for its ports to safely ferry fossil fuels trapped in the Gulf.

— Mohammed Sergie

Qatar’s LNG recovery

Qatar is ramping up liquefied natural gas exports as prices surge and inventories dwindle ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter. One tanker is now sailing toward Poland through the Red Sea, according to Bloomberg, and at least 20 more shipments have passed through the Strait of Hormuz to other destinations since early September. The gas could help temper the increase in prices and slow the slide in Qatar’s $200 billion economy, which the IMF expects to contract by 15.6% this year.

It’s unclear how the LNG is getting out: Qatar’s prime minister said last month that buyers had negotiated passage with Iran for the few cargoes that made it through during the first six months of the war. But Doha also seems to have adopted the “Hormuz shuttle” strategy that the Gulf’s crude exporters are using. LNG ship-to-ship transfers are more complex than oil transfers, requiring cryogenic hoses to handle gas chilled to minus 162 C (-260 F). Still, the effort is paying off: QatarEnergy restored LNG exports in September to about a third of prewar levels, Bloomberg reported.

— Mohammed Sergie

Clean energy continues to grow

The US is set to add a record 89 gigawatts of clean-energy capacity in 2026, followed by another high in 2027, despite opposition from the Trump administration, a new report found.

While high financing costs and growing protectionist measures are weighing on renewables, demand from data centers, upcoming expiry dates for solar and wind tax credits, and global market dynamics of carbon credits and gas supply are driving momentum, BloombergNEF said. There are also political processes to watch that will determine future project development: Congress is set to debate a bipartisan permitting bill, which could help streamline energy projects, while the outcome of November’s midterms could provide a boost for renewables.

Energy security redefined

Energy resilience comes less from any single technology or policy than from systems-level thinking, long-term investment, and deliberate planning, two of JPMorganChase’s top energy analysts argue in a new Semafor column.

Nearly eight months of war in Iran have produced one of the most severe energy shocks in decades, exposing a sharp divide between the countries that absorbed it with surprising ease and those forced into painful tradeoffs, Sarah Kapnick and Derek Chollet write. The countries that coped best were not always those with the most energy resources. They were the ones that had built flexibility, redundancy, and alternative pathways into their energy systems. Investors and governments should take note of a few vital lessons, including the value of domestic electricity generation, the need to secure grids, and the imperative to use existing infrastructure more wisely rather than wait years for an entirely new system.

New Energy

• China’s solar manufacturing technology may face new export controls.

Fossil Fuels

• The EU will drop efforts to secure a global agreement to ban oil and gas drilling in the Arctic, as the bloc focuses more on energy security.

• US President Donald Trump is helping revive a contentious northeastern gas pipeline project that was scrapped in 2020 with $42 million in funding from the Defense Production Act.
• Record high shipping costs are thinning margins for Asian refiners, even as the Iran war fuels higher demand.

Politics & Policy

• US Democrats and Republicans are either tamping down climate messaging or not discussing it at all, even as surveys show voters are increasingly worried about the effects of climate change.
• Nigeria’s fuel subsidy, which the current president scrapped as part of cost-cutting efforts in 2023, is at the center of the country’s upcoming election, as voters battle with high inflation.

Minerals & Mining

• African nations’ efforts to move up the mining value chain through building more smelters and refineries are being hampered by access to affordable and reliable electricity.

EVs

• Europe’s EV sales grew more than 70% in September, as high fuel prices, subsidies, and a wider array of models bolstered adoption.

Podcasts

• Michael Liebreich, formerly of BloombergNEF, has a smart series of new episodes about Ukraine’s energy war in his Cleaning Up podcast.