Is India’s prime minister getting desperate? After incendiary rhetoric towards Muslims that went beyond “dog-whistling,” it’s possible that an anticipated massive Narendra Modi sweep “may not be going as planned,” Salil Tripathi wrote for The Guardian. The government’s harassment towards the opposition likewise suggests a campaign that is not exactly on sure-footing, even though poll projections point to what could be Modi’s largest-ever win. While surveys are never completely certain, though, another explanation could be just as plausible: an increasingly authoritarian BJP government will take any advantage it can get, whether tipping the scales is necessary or not.

India last appeared on the Hot List at #2, with crunch-time efforts from the country's opposition.

In an attempt to reverse the ruling ANC’s fortunes, former President Thabo Mbeki has pledged to eliminate “rotten apples” within the party. Mbeki made the comments on the campaign trail, where the ANC is hoping to undo the erosion that has characterized recent polling. Mbeki referenced “thieves” in ANC clothing — literally “pointing to his own top” as he slammed corruption plaguing his own party. While Mbeki talks about fixing the problems in the ANC, however, another former ANC president, Jacob Zuma, is running with his own movement that appears to have deeply sliced into the ANC’s vote share.

South Africa last appeared on the Hot List at #1, when former president Jacob Zuma's candidacy was approved by a court.

With the AfD already in decline from previous polling heights, a spy scandal has emerged to compound the party’s troubles heading into a major European Union election. Polling above 20% just months ago, the German anti-immigrant nationalist party has now hit as low as 16% in some polls, and the downward turn could get worse. Accused of “harboring a Chinese spy” as an aide to its leading European Parliament candidate, the party now finds its campaign potentially derailed with just over a month until the EU vote. A receding AfD will have continental implications, as Germany will elect the bloc’s highest number of legislators.

Germany last appeared on the Hot List at #6, already looking at the AfD's decline.

Chad’s military junta is set to dissolve after elections, but don’t expect a change in regime. The country will be the first to hold a presidential election since the beginning of the Sahel region’s “coup wave” beginning in the 2020s. However, a campaign marred by deadly state repression leading to an unbalanced playing field detracts from any democratic significance the transition may hold. The outcome after everything is said and done will likely be a renewal of the Deby regime, which has held power since 1990 under the rule of President Mahamat Deby’s father Idriss.

Chad last appeared on the Hot List at #5, when state forces killed opposition leader Yaya Dillo.

In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez may see a reversal of fortunes after legal issues targeting his wife ended up eliciting sympathy for him. Supposed legal issues implicating his wife prompted the prime minister to consider resigning — reports that both inflamed the opposition and stoked his support, with a demonstration demanding the prime minister remain in office materializing in front of his party’s headquarters. Driven by a “platform linked to far-right causes,” the legal basis of the case against Sanchez’s wife seems shaky, and the prime minister ultimately heeded the calls of his supporters in a statement on Monday. Sanchez has proven a unique political survivor within the crucible of European politics, and early indications already show his party has likely benefited from the debacle.

Spain last appeared on the Hot List at #6, with the upcoming Catalan regional election.

Scotland will see new leadership after the sudden downfall of its first minister, Humza Yousaf. In the wake of losing support from coalition partners the Greens, Yousaf has officially resigned, bringing former SNP leader John Swinney back to power in a deal that avoided a leadership contest. A beleaguered SNP could find itself facing a steep challenge from Labour in an upcoming general election, though seat projections vary on how much ground the latter will gain in Scotland.

The UK last appeared on the Hot List at #9, looking at the drummer from Blur's campaign for parliament.

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, famous for his 2004 presidential election campaign, may make a run for his old job this year. The incumbent Republican governor, Phil Scott, has been re-elected by steadily larger margins over the years, and has yet to announce his plans for 2024, but Dean could easily be his highest-profile challenger to date. Scott is a liberal Republican — part of a phenomenon on the East Coast that included governors Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan from Massachusetts and Maryland, respectively — and Vermont has two-year terms, providing a unique electoral context in the state. Dean is apparently “seriously considering” a run, which would mark his first campaign for office in the state since his 2004 presidential campaign in which his famous “Dean Scream” went viral.

The USA last appeared on the Hot List at #7, with the falling approval of Mayor Eric Adams.

Burkina Faso’s junta has taken harsh measures against press freedom, illustrating the repression that typically follows the installation of military governments. Outlet after outlet has been targeted by the junta for criticism against the regime, including Radio Omega, a well-known local radio station, which was shuttered for an “insulting” interview related to Niger’s own junta. Following reports of an army massacre against civilians, the government took further steps to bar a host of international news organizations, including DW, the BBC, and Voice of America. According to analysts quoted by DW, the junta is also seeking to “stifle criticism over its inability to curb terrorism” – part of its justification for taking power to begin with.

Burkina Faso last appeared on the Hot List at #8, looking at the country's indefinite suspension of elections.

Panama’s presidential winner Jose Raul Mulino pledged a return to the “better times” of conservative former President Ricardo Martinelli, his corruption-convicted political ally. Mulino, who was running as Martinelli’s vice president, ascended to the top of the ticket after the latter was barred from contesting the election. Though “lacking Martinelli’s charisma and popular appeal,” Mulino has centered nostalgia for the Martinelli era as part of his message on the campaign trail. Mulino faced legal issues of his own, with a campaign that was accused of procedural errors, but Panama’s Supreme Court gave him the go ahead to run in this vote.

Panama last appeared on the Hot List at #8, with a mayoral campaign that created its own GameBoy game.