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Mexican election campaign marred by skyrocketing political violence
Insights from El Economista, Animal Politico, and Infobae
The News
More than 270 political candidates in Mexico have requested government protection ahead of June’s general election, underscoring a spiral of political violence that is tarnishing Mexican democracy.
At least 15 federal-level candidates have been assassinated this campaign season and 28 candidates have been attacked, according to Mexico News Daily, though the number is just a fraction of the attacks seen among the 70,000 total candidates running for local and state elections. Independent think tanks have reported more than 800 political attacks in the last five years.
Analysts say federal policy has long ignored tackling the foundational issues that pull youth into organized crime, and the issue has become one of the major talking points for presidential candidates.
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Violence is decreasing public’s participation in elections
Each attack on a candidate decreases voter turnout by about 1.3%, a director at a Mexican election security think tank told El Economista. Voters are taking into account that organized crime is “violating their public administration, state, and government,” the director said, with much of the public now convinced that their vote will do little to change violence. The increase in political violence mirrors a rise in overall violence and murders in Mexico seen under the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and former President Enrique Peña Nieto: political murders are now three times higher than in the mid 2000s, El Economista reported.
Security protocols neglect most vulnerable candidates
The National Electoral Institute (INE) has issued a universal security protocol in an attempt to protect candidates, but the plan “does not cover the vast majority of victims” who are local government officials, according to Animal Politico, a leftist online newspaper. Around 77% of political victims in Mexico are candidates running for city or state government, the paper reported, but the past three presidential administrations have focused on prioritizing federal law enforcement instead of “strengthening local institutions” such as cracking down on corruption among local police. Local economic and social reform must happen “in parallel” with INE security protocols to ensure local law enforcement cannot be infiltrated by organized crime, Animal Politico argued.
Leading presidential candidate rebrands ‘hugs, not bullets’
Claudia Sheinbaum, one of the contenders in June’s presidential election, has been attacked by critics for supporting López Obrador’s “hugs, not bullets” approach to ending the so-called war on drugs: Backers of the approach say it’s an attempt to “moralize” the federal security force, but analysts say the policy has contributed to the rise of violence in Mexico. Sheinbaum is now rebranding “hugs, not bullets” as a socioeconomic reform policy as she faces more scrutiny on the rise of political assassinations. “Of course it’s not about hugging criminals, no one has ever said that,” Sheinbaum said at a recent rally, adding that her security policy would focus on economic development aimed at preventing Mexican youth from joining organized crime. Despite López Obrador’s track record on violence, he remains broadly popular, and Sheinbaum, who The New York Times has described as his “protégée,” leads over opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez by 30 points, according to one recent poll.
