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The Hot List

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Updated May 15, 2024, 3:14pm EDT

Semafor’s subjective, dynamic ranking of the elections you should be paying attention to right now — based on their urgency, their importance, and their connection to the great political forces shaping our world.

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1
France – Le Pen successor
Presidential election in 2027

Marine Le Pen’s potential successor is polling competitively for the French presidency. Appearing ahead of or tied with potential rivals in run-off polling, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella has been mentioned nearly-exclusively as the next figure in line to lead France’s far-right National Rally into a presidential election in the event that Le Pen steps aside. That prospect seems unlikely for now, as Le Pen herself polls even higher, and could see her best opportunity yet in an election that is now only three years away. Bardella, for his part, will be heading the party’s European Parliament list in next month’s election, which will gauge his effectiveness as the crown prince of the French far-right.

ArrowFrance last appeared on the Hot List at #4, with Macron's movement losing ground to resurgent Socialists.
Joey Pfeifer
2
Venezuela – Meet the opposition
Presidential election on July 28, 2024

Venezuela’s opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez is a political unknown even within his country. After two successive opposition nominees were barred from seeking the presidency, Gonzalez will be the main candidate standing against President Nicolas Maduro in the July ballot. A retired diplomat until recently, Gonzalez reportedly had “no political ambitions” according to a friend quoted by The New York Times. The opposition is banking on his status as a “consensus seeker” to solidify his support, because “he doesn’t offend anybody” per that same friend.

ArrowVenezuela last appeared on the Hot List at #7, featuring the centrist "Pencil Alliance."
3
India – Soft fakes
Legislative elections through June 2024

AI-generated content is being used to resurrect deceased politicians in India’s general election, hoping to leverage their popularity for election gains. As reported by Rest of World, actor-politician Vijay Vasanth employed deepfake technology to craft an endorsement from his father, who once held the seat he’s campaigning for. The story has multiple parallels across the country, in a campaign period in which AI-generated material has become a significant factor — and concern, as election clashes get nasty with manipulated content featuring political rivals.

ArrowIndia last appeared on the Hot List at #2, with a broad look at AI-generated material in the election campaign.
Joey Pfeifer
4
Mozambique – Power trade
Presidential election on October 9, 2024

Mozambique’s ruling party has officially nominated a successor to President Filipe Nyusi. Daniel Chapo, the governor of Inhambane province, would be the country’s first “non-combatant” president, distinct from the guerilla fighter backgrounds that have characterized Mozambique’s leaders since independence. Described as a “former radio announcer” and “relatively unknown figure” in national politics, Chapo is said to have been “handpicked by Nyusi,” according to Mozambican political analyst Marisa Lourenco, likely ensuring some level of continuity in governance.

ArrowMozambique last appeared on the Hot List at #7, looking at the ruling party's potential struggles heading into the next election.
5
Panama – Independent strides
Legislative elections held May 5, 2024

Panama’s election featured a round of shocks, with independent candidates making major gains in the national legislature. Independents will now be the largest group by bloc in Panama’s Assembly, owing to a wave of anti-incumbency politics. The group of 21 independents is “ideologically very diverse, ranging from left to right,” and arrives after a record number of independent candidates were fielded in these elections. Further upsets marked Panama’s vote despite the frontrunner winning handily, with incumbent mayors losing re-election in both the capital and other cities like San Miguelito.

ArrowPanama last appeared on the Hot List at #9, featuring the new president's nostalgia-fueled winning campaign.
Joey Pfeifer
6
Togo – Expected outcome
Legislative elections held April 29, 2024

The president of Togo has capped off his consolidation of power with a win in legislative elections set to eventually cement his rule. Protests over the president’s constitutional power push characterized the election, with opposition critics decrying a shift to a stronger parliamentary system that would enable the president to eventually seek re-election beyond his already-extended term limits. The measures have been called an “institutional coup” in essence, paving the path for the 60-year regime of the Gnassingbe family to remain in power indefinitely.

ArrowTogo last appeared on the Hot List at #8, with public backlash to the president's constitutional changes.
7
Thailand – Targeted party
Legislative elections in 2027

Thailand’s Move Forward Party is facing yet another round of harassment, with plans to dissolve the party on the part of the country’s election commission. The dissolution would follow accusations that the party, which holds a strong stance against the country’s lese majeste laws prohibiting criticism of the monarchy, “undermines” governance. The Move Forward Party’s predecessor, Future Forward, was previously dissolved following 2019’s general election, and it has seen consistent legal repression against its leadership in the following years.

ArrowThailand last appeared on the Hot List at #5, looking at soaring support for Move Forward.
Joey Pfeifer
8
Spain – Catalan Alliance
Regional election on May 12, 2024

A new far-right party has emerged in Catalonia, springing from a small-town mayoral win. The “Catalan Alliance” won the mayoralty of Ripoli in municipal elections held last year, and is now polling between 3% and 4% across the region. It’s not much, but it could be enough to enter Catalonia’s Parliament, a prospect which has already prompted numerous parties to draw red lines around the group. The Alliance’s most prominent figure, Ripoli Mayor Silvia Orrols, was described by Politico as an emerging “figurehead for an uncompromising brand of anti-immigrant Catalan nationalism.”

ArrowSpain last appeared on the Hot List at #5, with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez deciding to remain in office.
9
Japan – Become a hermit
Legislative elections in 2025

After a gaffe, the Governor of Shizuoka prefecture in Japan says he is leaving politics to “become a hermit,” and “talk to little birds in the forest.” Heita Kawakatsu, who has been in office since 2009, drew controversy for comments demeaning farmworkers, for which he announced his resignation. At a press conference for his final day in office, Kawakatsu shot down chatter about potential further moves in politics, declaring his intentions towards hermithood and befriending forest animals.

ArrowJapan last appeared on the Hot List at #8, with by-election losses for the LDP.
Emma Roshan
THE BIG READ
Reuters/Amanda Perobelli

In the shadow campaign to succeed Brazil’s president, Guilherme Boulos has a chance to cut to the front. That’s if he can pull off a shock win in Sao Paulo against conservative incumbent Ricardo Nunes. In Americas Quarterly, Nick Burns labels Boulos, who previously ran for mayor in 2020 as well as the presidency in 2018, a possible “next big star” for the Brazilian left. Becoming mayor of Sao Paulo would cement that claim, and polls point to an opening for a candidate who has long positioned himself as a socialist activist — though, as the article points out, the Boulos campaign is attempting to shore up a more “moderate” image in this election, with outreach to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party and appeals to evangelicals.

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