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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / Prediction markets are rebuilding insurance
View / One of Trump’s key oil market fixes is about to break
The World at a Glance
Updated 7:15pm EDT
1
The US military said it carried out ‘proportional’ strikes against Tehran after Iran shot down a US Army helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.
2Anthropic launched a version of its powerful unreleased Mythos model that the company said was safe for general use.
3China is looking to spend nearly $300 billion over the next five years to build more data centers across the country.
4A US probe into India’s trade practices is holding up the countries’ long-awaited trade deal as New Delhi’s economic woes pile up.
5Building data centers in space could be cost-effective by around 2040, analysis suggested.
6China’s soccer team didn’t qualify for the FIFA men’s World Cup, which kicks off this week, but its tech is front and center at the tournament.
House prediction market ban faces turbulence
One Democrat said his party would likely oppose it in the hopes of passing a stronger ban next year.
Jacquelyn Martin/ReutersAnthropic releases guardrailed version of Mythos for public use
The company acknowledged that without safeguards, Fable 5 was a dangerous model in the hands of bad actors.
Denis Balibouse/ReutersOpenAI files for IPO amid intensifying AI race
OpenAI and Anthropic’s impending public offerings, as well as SpaceX’s, are expected to be among the biggest in history.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersSome Republicans want Pulte out for intelligence job
“Democrats are not going to vote to pass [a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act extension] until he’s withdrawn,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
Evan Vucci/Reuters Klarna on the fight for ‘top of wallet’ in an AI agentic commerce world
CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski thinks there’s still a place for brand loyalty and perks in a bot shopping world. Up next: Klarna airport lounges?
US block of World Cup referee from Somalia prompts scrutiny
Omar Abdulkadir Artan “was determined to be inadmissible due to vetting concerns,” the Trump administration said.
Somalis hold pictures of referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan. Feisal Omar/ReutersDemocrats aren’t winning the foreign policy argument, group says
Democrats need to revamp their message if they want to capitalize on voter angst over the war in Iran, the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way writes.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters 
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Politics
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersJacquelyn Martin/Reuters 
Evan Vucci/Reuters
Jockeying starts for a Trump intelligence job that may be taken
The president isn’t clear about whether he would name a permanent replacement for Bill Pulte, but contenders are already materializing.
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersHouse prediction market ban faces turbulence
One Democrat said his party would likely oppose it in the hopes of passing a stronger ban next year.
Jacquelyn Martin/ReutersGreer heads to Silicon Valley to promote onshoring
The US trade representative will tour manufacturing facilities.
Evan Vucci/Reuters Some Republicans want Pulte out for intelligence job
“Democrats are not going to vote to pass [a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act extension] until he’s withdrawn,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
Democrats aren’t winning the foreign policy argument, group says
Democrats need to revamp their message if they want to capitalize on voter angst over the war in Iran, the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way writes.
Republicans want Trump and Netanyahu to smooth things over
The party that revels in Democratic divisions over Israel is in an awkward spot as its president splits from the prime minister over the war.
The West’s age of ‘hyperpolitics’
The West is in an age of “hyperpolitics” in which polarization has surged but institutions are incapable of delivering change, a leading researcher argued.
Politicians couldn’t keep kids off social media. They’ll try again with AI.
Leaders of both parties in Washington and in state capitals are confronting AI before it becomes as omnipresent as vertical video.
Democrat McCann pulls ahead in key House race
Bill Huizenga, who won his seat by nearly 12 points in 2024, has long been a target for House Democrats’ campaign arm.
Beleaguered in DC, Platner enters his comfort zone
Democrats’ presumptive Senate nominee in Maine isn’t going anywhere, despite the wishes of some in his party.
Surveillance tools expiration bears down on Senate
Democrats want to use their leverage to get Bill Pulte replaced as interim director of national intelligence.
Business
Stringer/Reuters
China tech on display at World Cup
Sports sponsorships in recent years have gone beyond traditional advertising.
Stringer/ReutersThe case for space data centers
By the early 2030s, space data centers could be only around 30% more expensive than terrestrial ones.
India still waiting for US trade deal
The countries’ relationship has worsened during US President Donald Trump’s second term.
Meta reskills as AI job fears grow
Launch sites are in places where Meta is building data centers, some of which have faced resistance from local communities.
Sam Bankman-Fried seeks Trump pardon
Trump told The New York Times last year that he wouldn’t pardon the dethroned crypto king.
TechnologyStringer/Reuters 
Benoit Tessier/Reuters
China tech on display at World Cup
Sports sponsorships in recent years have gone beyond traditional advertising.
Stringer/ReutersThe case for space data centers
By the early 2030s, space data centers could be only around 30% more expensive than terrestrial ones.
Benoit Tessier/ReutersChina’s $300 billion plan to build more data centers
The government wants to construct a network of “computing hubs.”
Anthropic releases guardrailed version of Mythos for public use
The company acknowledged that without safeguards, Fable 5 was a dangerous model in the hands of bad actors.
OpenAI files for IPO amid intensifying AI race
OpenAI and Anthropic’s impending public offerings, as well as SpaceX’s, are expected to be among the biggest in history.
OpenAI files to go public in major test of AI investment boom
The ChatGPT-maker filed confidentially for an IPO one week after its rival Anthropic.
Energy
Drone Base/Reuters
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Joe Penney/Reuters
One of Trump’s key oil market fixes is about to break
An uncomfortable energy deadline is looming for the White House.
Drone Base/ReutersOil prices ease as Israel and Iran pause strikes
There still remains little sign of progress toward a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersUranium mining market heats up amid nuclear-powered data centers bet
The gap between supply and demand in uranium production is widening.
Joe Penney/ReutersGulf
Nathan Howard/Reuters
US strikes Iran over downed helicopter
In a first for the US, the two American aviators aboard the chopper were rescued by a drone boat.
Nathan Howard/ReutersSaudi investors eye Pakistan port deal
The deal, which would create a 140-acre industrial park in Pakistan’s port city of Karachi, is a further sign of warming ties between the two countries.
Saudi’s first major wartime IPO scrapped
Mutlaq Al-Ghowairi Contracting Co said it had attracted enough demand to cover its $799 million share sale, but decided to pull the offering “after careful consideration.”
UAE employers plan to cut staff, pushed by uncertainty
A survey of 546 firms from US recruiting firm ManpowerGroup offers a rare forward-looking read on sentiment.
Gulf tourism limps back from war
Flights have returned, with Etihad and Emirates back close to their prewar capacity, but the war is hammering their profits, and hotels are even worse off.
China
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Tingshu Wang/Reuters
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
China’s $300 billion plan to build more data centers
The government wants to construct a network of “computing hubs.”
Dado Ruvic/ReutersChina exports beat forecasts amid global AI boom
Year-on-year exports jumped by close to 20%, driven partly by a 110% surge in semiconductor shipments.
Tingshu Wang/ReutersGermany bears the brunt of China Shock 2.0
As Western economies scramble to defend themselves against the second China shock, their corporate and national interests are again radically at odds.
Shannon Stapleton/ReutersAfricaSomalis hold pictures of referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan. Feisal Omar/Reuters 
Ivan Alvarado/Reuters
US block of World Cup referee from Somalia prompts scrutiny
Omar Abdulkadir Artan “was determined to be inadmissible due to vetting concerns,” the Trump administration said.
Somalis hold pictures of referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan. Feisal Omar/ReutersFIFA bans use of vuvuzelas at World Cup
The vuvuzela became a symbol of South African football following its widespread use in the 2010 World Cup, which was hosted in the country.
Ivan Alvarado/ReutersEuropean DFIs lead Africa’s private capital funds
The data underscores the continent’s continuing dependence on foreign capital for private investment.
Iran war disrupts phone shipments to Africa
Shipments of African mobile phones have slowed to their lowest level in two years, research firm Omdia said.
GOP proposes State Department Africa staff revamp
Republicans are looking to bolster Washington’s diplomatic capacity on a continent where the US is struggling to keep pace with rivals.
The paradox of Africa’s millionaire growth
More entrepreneurs are getting rich despite difficult conditions, yet many remain reluctant to keep their capital in the markets that made them wealthy.
Security
Ammar Awad/Reuters
Adnan Abidi/Reuters
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Iran says it has halted strikes on Israel
Oil prices jumped 5% and stocks fell on the news.
Ammar Awad/ReutersIndia ‘cockroach’ party attracts discontented youth
The Cockroach Janta Party was started by a recent Boston University graduate after India’s chief justice compared young unemployed Indians to cockroaches.
Adnan Abidi/ReutersUS defense secretary attacks European allies in D-Day speech
Speaking in France on Saturday, Pete Hegseth decried a modern “invasion” of “boats and men.”
Elizabeth Frantz/ReutersMedia
Eleanor Kaufman/Semafor
Progressive site Zeteo plans UK expansion
Zeteo UK is a standalone site that will begin publishing this week, with a hard launch date in September.
Eleanor Kaufman/SemaforPolitico folds E&E News ahead of broader energy push
In September, Politico plans to launch a series of energy-focused newsletters.
Former Gourmet magazine owner sues new Gourmet newsletter
Condé Nast filed a lawsuit against Goulash Unlimited, the LLC set up by the owners of a revived Gourmet site.
CBS News in the crossfire
Within the network, every editorial decision has been scrutinized by CBS’ own staff.
Kalshi asks paid influencers to delete posts sowing doubts over LA mayoral election
Kalshi and Polymarket have enlisted hundreds of paid influencers to spur interest in everything from sporting events to political races.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Smith & Nephew/Graph Massara/Semafor
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Match Group/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Deepak Nath applies pressure at Smith and Nephew
The medtech CEO is standing by his company’s portfolio strategy despite calls to break it up.
Courtesy of Smith & Nephew/Graph Massara/SemaforHow Cisco’s Chuck Robbins gets his team to ‘disagree and commit’
The longstanding CEO says a bad decision that you reverse is better than a delay.
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy an anxious AI romantic now drives Match Group’s dating apps
CEO Spencer Rascoff uses digital “personas” to help the Tinder owner understand its users.
Courtesy of Match Group/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD