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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / America’s negative-sum birthday
View / Mustafa Suleyman’s case against open-source AI shortcuts
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:36pm EDT
1
Iran and the US failed to finalize a truce as Donald Trump said he was in “no hurry” to strike a deal.
2Israeli forces seized a 12th-century Crusader castle in Lebanon, intensifying their farthest incursion into the country in 26 years.
3The US Defense secretary urged Washington’s Asian allies to spend more on defense, in a speech that was notably softer on China.
4The US revoked the visa of a Chinese state media journalist after Beijing expelled a New York Times reporter.
5A Chinese drug was shown to reduce lung cancer death by 34% in a late-stage trial, capping a whirlwind month for global medicine.
6Chinese manufacturing activity slowed, as Beijing’s economy begins to show the economic strain caused by the Iran war.
What’s next for Gretchen Whitmer?
The Michigan governor’s office says she won’t be president of Michigan State University.
Mike Blake/Reuters Republicans still stuck on party-line immigration bill
The so-called anti-weaponization fund “caught a lot of us off-guard,” said Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb.
Eric Lee/Reuters Tech ads on the New York subway are up 50% this year
AI has already upended the digital advertising sector. Now, more tech companies are turning to traditional static ads.
Ads for AI company mistral in NYC. Shannon Stapleton/Reuters.Iran deal awaits Trump, Tehran approval
The US and Iran neared a deal to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump and Tehran are yet to sign off on it.
Evan Vucci/ReutersBlackstone’s VFS banks mega profits on African, Asian visa applicants
An investigation found VFS staff pressured to add costly auxiliary services for prospective travelers to Europe, UK.
VFS Global application center in Istanbul, Turkey. Murad Sezer/ReutersWhite House rejects ‘doomer view’ of economy
The Trump administration is struggling to sell the Iran war while oil prices fuel inflation.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersCompanies evaluate aggressive AI spending as costs pile up
Pitched partly as an avenue for businesses to save money, AI has sent IT costs soaring.
Chris J. Ratcliffe/Reuters
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Politics
Amanda Sabga/Reuters
Evan Vucci/ReutersMike Blake/Reuters
Platner: Collins ‘trying to offload her mistakes’
Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner isn’t backing down from his comments that GOP Sen. Susan Collins “sent me” to fight in Iraq, charging her with “trying to offload her mistakes” for pointing out that he chose to enlist.
Amanda Sabga/ReutersDebatable: The scope of Trump’s new green card curbs
The administration has sent confusing signals about whether H-1B holders will get caught up in the new policy.
Evan Vucci/ReutersWhat’s next for Gretchen Whitmer?
The Michigan governor’s office says she won’t be president of Michigan State University.
Mike Blake/Reuters Republicans still stuck on party-line immigration bill
The so-called anti-weaponization fund “caught a lot of us off-guard,” said Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb.
White House rejects ‘doomer view’ of economy
The Trump administration is struggling to sell the Iran war while oil prices fuel inflation.
Iran deal awaits Trump, Tehran approval
The US and Iran neared a deal to extend their ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump and Tehran are yet to sign off on it.
Pentagon’s Wall Street push draws Democrats’ ire
Lawmakers are raising concerns about plans for an “Economic Defense Unit” first reported by Semafor.
Ebola crisis could become worst on record
The global community is ‘on our back foot already,’ a former Biden official said of the virus response.
New activist pressure to defeat retail crime bill
The Vera Institute of Justice and Dream.org are launching a new campaign to stop bipartisan legislation to crack down on organized retail crime.
Murphy takes on college sports deal
The Connecticut Democrat told Semafor that his primary worry is the bill’s proposed compensation caps for athletes.
Trump suggests he can ‘outwait’ Iran in negotiations
Trump signaled an extended timeline for peace talks with Iran, saying he is “not satisfied” with the current terms of negotiations.
Business
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
How Cisco’s Chuck Robbins gets his team to ‘disagree and commit’
The longstanding CEO says a bad decision that you reverse is better than a delay.
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforCompanies evaluate aggressive AI spending as costs pile up
Pitched partly as an avenue for businesses to save money, AI has sent IT costs soaring.
Child’s play for Japanese adults
The popularity of the toys, known as gacha gacha, comes as Japan’s population rapidly ages — the number of children has hit a fresh low.
Where are the customers’ hedges?
The future of commerce can’t possibly be a prediction market for whether someone will deliver me four kiwis.
Central bank leaders warn of long-term inflation impact of Iran war
Traders are now betting on at least one US Federal Reserve rate increase this year.
Technology
Toby Melville/Reuters
Meta’s AR glasses. Yves Herman/Reuters.
Mustafa Suleyman’s case against open-source AI shortcuts
As AI costs sting companies, Suleyman argues that cheap, distilled models are a shortcut that eventually fails.
Toby Melville/ReutersHow AI is making assistance for the visually impaired more accessible
Aira has developed an AI model with Google DeepMind that helps the visually impaired navigate daily life.
Meta’s AR glasses. Yves Herman/Reuters.AI startup offers free home cleaning to train robots
Shift made a splashy launch Thursday, and has since gotten demand for “thousands and thousands of bookings.”
What’s behind Anthropic’s $65B raise?
The economics are so unprecedented that Anthropic seems to be teetering on the brink of either growing too fast, or too slowly.
Tech ads on the New York subway are up 50% this year
AI has already upended the digital advertising sector. Now, more tech companies are turning to traditional static ads.
Companies evaluate aggressive AI spending as costs pile up
Pitched partly as an avenue for businesses to save money, AI has sent IT costs soaring.
Energy
Luke MacGregor/Reuters
China Daily via Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
BP’s ousted chair to challenge accusations
Albert Manifold was abruptly removed from his position atop the oil major’s board this week.
Luke MacGregor/ReutersGlobal clean-energy trade reaches record high
New data suggest Donald Trump’s tariffs on the energy transitions sector did little to stifle clean energy trade.
China Daily via ReutersOil prices rise on fresh round of Iran-US airstrikes
But insurance rates for tankers passing the strait — the most important indicator of whether the waterway is “reopening” — haven’t budged.
Stringer/ReutersGulf
Khalil Ashawi/Reuters
Saudi Arabia pledges $1.5B aid package for Syria
The package is a major boost to Damascus, which is working to consolidate power and restart the economy after more than a decade of war.
Khalil Ashawi/ReutersFormer Qatari energy minister Abdullah Al Attiyah dies
Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah was the architect of Qatar’s LNG industry, transforming the country into one of the world’s wealthiest nations.
Bahraini leader cultivates loyalty over crackdown on Iranian sympathizers
More than 1,000 Bahraini citizens have sent messages of support to King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa in recent weeks.
Aramco offloads 50% stake in Malaysia refinery project
Aramco is transferring ownership to the country’s national oil company Petronas.
Bahrain suffers wartime trade slump
The value of imports slumped 17% and non-oil exports fell by 10%.
China
Go Nakamura/Reuters
cnsphoto via Reuters
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Chinese manufacturing slows as Iran war strains economy
Beijing has been relatively shielded from the worst effects of the conflict so far.
Go Nakamura/ReutersChinese drug reduces lung cancer death risk by 34% in trial
The results capped a whirlwind month in global medicine.
cnsphoto via ReutersUS reciprocates after China expels Times reporter
The US revoked the visa of a Chinese state media journalist after Beijing expelled a New York Times reporter, in a diplomatic tit-for-tat.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersAfrica
Nigerian Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images.
Chen Wei/Xinhua via Getty Images
Former Nigerian VP Atiku wins election nomination
Atiku Abubakar, who has sought the Nigerian presidency on six previous occasions, will represent the African Democratic Congress.
Nigerian Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP via Getty Images.South Africa hikes key interest rate as Iran war drives inflation
The move positions South Africa at the vanguard of a small group of emerging markets hiking rates to cushion the impact of the Iran war.
Chen Wei/Xinhua via Getty ImagesUS Ebola center in Kenya runs into legal hurdles
The US and Kenya signed an agreement to set up an Ebola biocontainment center for Americans exposed to the virus.
Blackstone’s VFS banks mega profits on African, Asian visa applicants
An investigation found VFS staff pressured to add costly auxiliary services for prospective travelers to Europe, UK.
Africa’s tax push is clashing with the reality of its informal economies
Critics argue the measures could slow digital adoption and push more activity back toward cash-based channels.
Ghanaian artist El Anatsui dominates Frieze New York sales
‘LuwVor I,’ a sculpture crafted from aluminum, copper, and wire, sold for $2.2 million, more than double the next highest seller at the prestigious art fair.
Security
Israeli Military/Handout via Reuters
Aaron Schwartz/Reuters
Ammar Awad/Reuters
Israel seizes Crusader castle in Lebanon
Israeli forces seized a 12th-century Crusader castle in southern Lebanon, as Israel intensifies its farthest incursion into the country in 26 years, despite a nominal ceasefire.
Israeli Military/Handout via ReutersNo breakthrough in US-Iran talks
A US-Iran peace agreement failed to materialize Sunday — just as negotiators appeared near the finish line — after President Donald Trump said he was in “no hurry” to strike a deal.
Aaron Schwartz/ReutersIsrael’s relations with Europe, UN erode
Israeli officials are set to be added to a UN blacklist of entities suspected of sexual violence in conflict zones.
Ammar Awad/ReutersMedia
Katie Jones/Variety/Penske Media via Getty Images
New York Public Radio’s new boss reorganizes the network
In her first four months on the job, Christy Tanner has swiftly eliminated many of NYPR’s seniormost figures.
Katie Jones/Variety/Penske Media via Getty ImagesBret Baier on golfing with Trump, his 2028 predictions, and making the case for civility
Fox News’ Special Report host Bret Baier joins Mixed Signals to talk about what it’s like to sit at the center of American political media.
The ‘completely new’ ‘60 Minutes’
Nick Bilton’s hire signals that Paramount CEO David Ellison and editor-in-chief Bari Weiss’ overhaul of CBS News will be radical and total.
Paramount appears to sway DOJ staff on Warner Bros. takeover
US antitrust regulators appear to approve Paramount’s $110 billion studio deal after a two-hour meeting at the Justice Department Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said.
Thousands of journalists’ data exposed to dark web
More than half of the exposures contained personal information such as names, phone numbers, dates of birth, and addresses, per a new study from Proton.
CEO SignalCourtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of Match Group/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Becton Dickinson/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
How Cisco’s Chuck Robbins gets his team to ‘disagree and commit’
The longstanding CEO says a bad decision that you reverse is better than a delay.
Courtesy of Cisco/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy an anxious AI romantic now drives Match Group’s dating apps
CEO Spencer Rascoff uses digital “personas” to help the Tinder owner understand its users.
Courtesy of Match Group/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow syringe-maker BD is infusing AI into its medical devices
CEO Tom Polen is turning his 65,000 employees into lean manufacturing “problem-finders.”
Courtesy of Becton Dickinson/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD