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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:09pm EDT
1
The US defense chief said Tuesday’s strikes on Iran would be the most intense of the war, as Donald Trump threatened further escalation.
2Oil continued its slide, but wild price swings rattled even the most experienced traders.
3China could start to feel economic pain from the Middle East conflict, given the country’s growing business ties to the Gulf.
4India eased rules over Chinese investment in local firms, extending the countries’ diplomatic and economic thaw.
5AI agents are taking off in China, with local governments rolling out policies to support OpenClaw development.
6South Africa’s president arrived in Brazil for a visit aimed at bolstering ties, amid the upheaval sparked by US tariffs.
Republican spending rises in Kentucky Senate race
A group supporting Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., is dropping more money to attack businessman Nate Morris in the Republican Senate primary.
Screenshot/Keep America Great PAC/YouTube‘A lack of consistency’: Trump administration navigates war-related domestic threats
Amid two violent incidents this month, there are internal differences of opinion about addressing war-related risks.
Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesMore employees using AI, survey finds
In the fourth quarter of last year, 43% of public-sector employees said they used AI at least a few times annually, according to Gallup polling.
Florence Lo/ReutersMullin set to take over a closed and chaotic Homeland Security
Democrats are still digging in on their immigration enforcement demands, even as airport security lines grow.
Nathan Howard/ReutersG7 leaders agree not to release oil reserves
The price of Brent crude fell back below $90 per barrel on Tuesday, after soaring to nearly $120.
Kim Hong-Ji/ReutersRepublicans pledge scrutiny of Iran school strike
The party wants answers on the bombing of an Iranian school that killed 175 people, which appears to have been caused by a US Tomahawk missile.
Mehr News/Handout via ReutersDC gets jammed up with gridlock
President Donald Trump says he’ll stop any legislation (except for DHS funding) until he gets his wish of ID and citizenship requirements for voting.
Nathan Howard/Reuters 
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PoliticsFlorence Lo/Reuters 
Kylie Cooper/Reuters Screenshot/Keep America Great PAC/YouTube
More employees using AI, survey finds
In the fourth quarter of last year, 43% of public-sector employees said they used AI at least a few times annually, according to Gallup polling.
Florence Lo/ReutersWhite House signals safe passage for housing bill
The Senate is on track to pass President Donald Trump’s proposed ban on institutional investors in housing as part of a larger package of measures.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters Republican spending rises in Kentucky Senate race
A group supporting Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., is dropping more money to attack businessman Nate Morris in the Republican Senate primary.
Screenshot/Keep America Great PAC/YouTubeWhite House seeks to tweak deportation rhetoric
Republicans tacitly acknowledge that the administration’s hardline rhetoric on mass deportation risks alienating voters.
US digs in on Iran campaign
The US defense chief said Tuesday’s strikes on Iran would be the most intense of the war, as President Donald Trump threatened further escalation.
Mullin set to take over a closed and chaotic Homeland Security
Democrats are still digging in on their immigration enforcement demands, even as airport security lines grow.
The State of Happiness in 2026: Wellbeing in the Digital Age | Semafor Events
The 2026 edition of the World Happiness Report, with the latest global happiness rankings powered by data from the Gallup World Poll, examines the striking differences in how young people have fared over time across countries and regions.
‘A lack of consistency’: Trump administration navigates war-related domestic threats
Amid two violent incidents this month, there are internal differences of opinion about addressing war-related risks.
Trump vows to investigate strike on Iranian school that killed 175
Trump originally said the attack was carried out by Iran, but analysts said that was implausible.
DC gets jammed up with gridlock
President Donald Trump says he’ll stop any legislation (except for DHS funding) until he gets his wish of ID and citizenship requirements for voting.
Republicans pledge scrutiny of Iran school strike
The party wants answers on the bombing of an Iranian school that killed 175 people, which appears to have been caused by a US Tomahawk missile.
Business
Tingshu Wang/Pool/Reuters
MidEast conflict could hurt Chinese business
Analysts say China may benefit geopolitically from a prolonged Iran war, but it could start to feel the pain economically.
Tingshu Wang/Pool/ReutersIndia eases rules on China investment
India is looking to attract more capital amid fresh global economic uncertainty.
Oil slides further but traders rattled by volatility
Oil continued its slide Tuesday, but the wild price swings triggered by Washington’s Iran war messaging have rattled even the most experienced traders.
Iran war gives CEOs another excuse to tighten their belts: recession fears
Layoffs are coming — not because the economic conditions demand it, but because the economic fears allow it.
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square files for IPO
This is Ackman’s second attempt at listing Pershing Square, after withdrawing an oversized plan in 2024 that found little market appetite.
Technology
Credit: AT&T
AI agents take off in China
Local governments have rolled out policy measures to support OpenClaw development, even as authorities issue security warnings over the agents.
World marks 150 years since first-ever phone call
That the phone call has survived myriad technological upheavals shows “how profoundly it changed society,” the CTO of AT&T told Semafor.
Credit: AT&TAnthropic sues the Pentagon over supply chain risk designation
The action marks the latest chapter in the feud between the Trump administration and the AI startup.
Payments startup Airwallex expands into US, crosses $1B in assets under management
Airwallex hopes its infrastructure, which took a decade to build, will put it in a good position to capitalize on the AI boom, which is driven by subscriptions and API fees.
Anthropic’s Amodei grows up on the job
Anthropic appeared to have the upper hand — until a leaked memo surfaced Wednesday showing Amodei calling Trump a petty dictator.
AI guardrails more popular than beating China, survey finds
Support for AI guardrails is one of the most bipartisan issues in the US, according to a new survey shared exclusively with Semafor.
Energy
Barbara Lewis/File Photo/Reuters
Lisi Niesner/File Photo/ReutersKim Hong-Ji/Reuters
Mining, metals sector account for 11% of global emissions, report finds
The International Council on Mining and Metals’s new data highlights the sector’s role as both a major emitter and a linchpin of the clean energy transition.
Barbara Lewis/File Photo/ReutersEurope scrambles for gas alternatives amid surging prices
European leaders will meet today to discuss a response to the spike in natural gas prices.
Lisi Niesner/File Photo/ReutersG7 leaders agree not to release oil reserves
The price of Brent crude fell back below $90 per barrel on Tuesday, after soaring to nearly $120.
Kim Hong-Ji/ReutersGulfTingshu Wang/Pool/Reuters
MidEast conflict could hurt Chinese business
Analysts say China may benefit geopolitically from a prolonged Iran war, but it could start to feel the pain economically.
Tingshu Wang/Pool/ReutersAbu Dhabi’s Judan buys major stake in US AI investor
Judan will have a 50.1% stake in Alpha Wave Global, a Miami-based alternative asset manager and investor in Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX.
UAE banks move data abroad following Iran strikes
UAE banks suffered service outages after an Amazon data center in the country was hit by drones.
Gulf airlines grapple with long-term cost of war
Even when peace is restored, super-connectors like Emirates and Qatar Airways will find it harder to persuade passengers to transit via their hubs.
Foreign workers in the Gulf bearing brunt of Iran strikes
At least nine civilians have been killed so far across the region, and only one was a Gulf citizen.
Africa
Lines at a petrol station in Bamako. AFP via Getty Images.
Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
The Iran war risks upending Africa’s Sahel
The junta-led nations around the Sahel — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — are particularly vulnerable to the impact of a global energy crisis.
Lines at a petrol station in Bamako. AFP via Getty Images.Djibouti taps carbon fund for climate challenges
Djibouti created the Sovereign Carbon Initiative in 2023 to help reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030.
Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty ImagesAfrican Development Bank eyes green fund expansion
The Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa is the continent’s largest fund, launched in order to catalyze private investment in renewables.
Dangote Refinery halts petrol loading on Iran war
Higher crude oil prices could greatly benefit Nigeria and other African oil producers.
The challenge and opportunity of America First’s new health deals
Zambia, Zimbabwe are among African countries pushing back at bilateral health pacts.
Implats drags Zimbabwe’s FX row to Pretoria
Harare has imposed to surrender about one-third of foreign-currency receipts to its central bank to rebuild its foreign currency stock.
Security
US Patriot missile defense systems at a base in South Korea. Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters.
DVIDS/Handout via Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
Ukraine advises US, Gulf on downing Iranian drones
The Patriot missiles used to shoot down Iranian strikes are akin to “using a bazooka to kill a fly,” The New York Times wrote.
US Patriot missile defense systems at a base in South Korea. Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters.Trump vows to investigate strike on Iranian school that killed 175
Trump originally said the attack was carried out by Iran, but analysts said that was implausible.
DVIDS/Handout via ReutersIran slows attacks on Gulf neighbors
Tehran fired just 33 missiles and drones at the UAE Monday, down from around 350 a day at the start of the war.
Stringer/ReutersMedia
Hasan Piker on streaming all day, his relationship with Zohran Mamdani, and the lefty media machine
Since 2018, Hasan Piker has gone from streaming alone in his bedroom to becoming one of North America’s most influential leftist creators.
Bulwark CEO wants to help Democrats ‘Eat’ MAGA
The founder of the Bulwark wants to help chart a path back to power for the Democratic party.
Politico founder plots new Washington newspaper war
A damaged Washington Post could face a big new challenger.
Left-of-center groups plead with AGs to stop WBD-Paramount deal
“With President Trump having weaponized independent agencies and antitrust enforcers to do his political bidding, it is essential that states fill the void and aggressively protect consumers,” the groups wrote.
It’s bots vs. reporters at the AP
The tensions inside the wire service reveal a broader conflict playing out across the media over how AI should be applied within journalism.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Autodesk/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Aflac/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Autodesk’s model for building an AI ‘moat’
CEO Andrew Anagnost says software companies need three defensive qualities.
Courtesy of Autodesk/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAflac’s Dan Amos on succession after 36 years as CEO
The long-tenured leader has a time and a person in mind — and some advice on what the job takes.
Courtesy of Aflac/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor US Soccer’s goal for the 2026 World Cup
CEO JT Batson says the tournament is forcing brands to see the value of the sport’s fans.
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