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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / Saudi promotes Trump ties in Miami, even as war rages
View / US’ ‘Pivot to Asia’ derailed by Iran campaign
The World at a Glance
Updated 7:25am EDT
1
Gulf nations are increasingly supporting the US, as they seek to counter Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.
2The US’ war in Iran is a greater strategic ‘blunder’ than the Iraq conflict, a former US ambassador to NATO argued.
3Kyiv said it had ‘irrefutable’ evidence that Russia is providing intelligence support to Iran, which the Kremlin has denied.
4The EU and Australia agreed a new free trade deal, as they look to buffer against US protectionism.
5Taiwan is worried about waning US support, with Washington’s attention — and military resources — diverted to the Iran war.
6A US judge will begin hearing arguments today in Anthropic’s legal case against the Pentagon.
How China’s economy is vulnerable to prolonged Hormuz closure
If the conflict drags on for months instead of weeks, China’s economy will be uniquely vulnerable because of its dependence on exports, a leading analyst argued.
Oil storage tanks in Ningbo. Go Nakamura/ReutersUS robot-makers’ push to counter China ‘in a hold’ ahead of Trump-Xi summit
US robotics executives said they don’t expect any major policy action on China until Donald Trump’s now-delayed meeting with Xi Jinping.
Carlos Barria/ReutersBig Oil diverges from DC when it comes to the energy outlook
Oil executives and the Trump administration are presenting diverging outlooks for the global energy market.
Chairman of the Board and CEO of Chevron Mike Wirth. Kylie Cooper/ReutersUS to keep attacking Iran as Israel stays on sidelines of talks
President Donald Trump’s five-day pause applies only to “their energy sites,” a US official confirmed to Semafor, with other hostilities continuing.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersPoll: Care anecdotes resonate with voters
Respondents were significantly more likely to support candidates who share their personal experiences of struggling to afford care.
Arin Yoon/ReutersCarlyle’s Stavridis says investors are already mapping out post-war Iran
“Those are investment opportunities that ought to be taken very seriously,” the retired NATO supreme commander says of Iran, Venezuela, Ukraine — and Cuba.
Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images/Benoit Tessier/ReutersBlackRock CEO on paying for ‘America First’: ‘Self-reliance is costly’
In his 2026 shareholder letter, Fink said that governments can “do more to help channel capital into their own growth.”
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
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Politics
US Navy/Handout via ReutersCarlos Barria/Reuters 
Brian Snyder/Reuters
Iran war a greater strategic ‘blunder’ than Iraq: ex-US official
The ongoing conflict has already upended the global economy and weakened Washington’s alliances, with long-term impacts likely.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersUS robot-makers’ push to counter China ‘in a hold’ ahead of Trump-Xi summit
US robotics executives said they don’t expect any major policy action on China until Donald Trump’s now-delayed meeting with Xi Jinping.
Carlos Barria/ReutersAmericans sour on the job market, poll finds
Only 28% have confidence in the US job market, according to new Gallup polling, down from 70% in 2022.
Brian Snyder/Reuters Joe Kent continues to divide Trump base
The saga surrounding the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center is splitting some of the president’s staunchest supporters.
White House, Senate Republicans eye DHS funding deal
The deal would likely involve a funding agreement with Democrats to reopen most of the Department of Homeland Security, except for certain buckets of immigration enforcement.
US air travel chaos worsens over DHS shutdown
The chaos plaguing US airports deepened on Monday as travelers faced hours-long lines stemming from a partial government shutdown.
Europe quietly supports US campaign against Iran
US military bases in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Italy, France, and Greece are fueling and launching American bombers and drones.
US to keep attacking Iran as Israel stays on sidelines of talks
President Donald Trump’s five-day pause applies only to “their energy sites,” a US official confirmed to Semafor, with other hostilities continuing.
Poll: Care anecdotes resonate with voters
Respondents were significantly more likely to support candidates who share their personal experiences of struggling to afford care.
Senate Democrats demand FCC probe in Warner Bros. deal
Paramount bested Netflix with a $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. earlier this month, $24 billion of which comes from Abu Dhabi, Qatari, and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
Democrat has ‘regret’ for immigration law vote
The Senate candidate penned an op-ed expressing regret for supporting the Laken Riley Act.
Business
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Marco Bello/Reuters
New VC fund to focus on prediction markets
The founders of the two biggest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are among the investors in 5c(c) Capital, which plans to raise up to $35 million.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Marco Bello/ReutersMarkets relieved as Trump eases on Iran
Stocks rose and oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump eased his threats on Iran.
Carlyle’s Stavridis says investors are already mapping out post-war Iran
“Those are investment opportunities that ought to be taken very seriously,” the retired NATO supreme commander says of Iran, Venezuela, Ukraine — and Cuba.
Fears grow over Iran war’s long-term impact
Experts say that even if the crisis is resolved quickly, the impact could last for months.
Senate Democrats demand FCC probe in Warner Bros. deal
Paramount bested Netflix with a $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. earlier this month, $24 billion of which comes from Abu Dhabi, Qatari, and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
TechnologyCarlos Barria/Reuters Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Marco Bello/Reuters
US robot-makers’ push to counter China ‘in a hold’ ahead of Trump-Xi summit
US robotics executives said they don’t expect any major policy action on China until Donald Trump’s now-delayed meeting with Xi Jinping.
Carlos Barria/ReutersNew VC fund to focus on prediction markets
The founders of the two biggest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are among the investors in 5c(c) Capital, which plans to raise up to $35 million.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Marco Bello/ReutersOpenAI to nearly double headcount this year
OpenAI plans to nearly double its headcount to 8,000 employees this year, as the startup ramps up a push to sell its AI products to businesses, the Financial Times reported.
Ukraine makes territorial gains as Russia loses Starlink access
Ukraine has achieved its largest domestic territorial gains in more than two years after Elon Musk cut off Starlink internet service to Russian forces, showing how digital infrastructure is redefining the modern battlefield.
Microsoft’s options to rein in OpenAI
Why is exclusivity so important to Microsoft?
Conservative group, teacher’s union team up on chatbots
The issue of children having access to chatbots is uniting even the unlikeliest of groups.
EnergyChairman of the Board and CEO of Chevron Mike Wirth. Kylie Cooper/Reuters 
Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/Reuters
Arathy Somasekhar/Reuters
Big Oil diverges from DC when it comes to the energy outlook
Oil executives and the Trump administration are presenting diverging outlooks for the global energy market.
Chairman of the Board and CEO of Chevron Mike Wirth. Kylie Cooper/ReutersIran war exposes risks to the AI boom
Major East Asian firms that drive chip manufacturing rely on the Middle East for energy imports.
Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/ReutersUS shale producers may benefit from reduced Gulf oil flows
Oil consumers could seek alternative supplies in stable economies with secure supply chains outside the Middle East.
Arathy Somasekhar/ReutersGulf
Trump and MBS in 2025. Tom Brenner/Reuters.
Saudi promotes Trump ties in Miami, even as war rages
Trump’s scheduled attendance at a Saudi investment conference in Miami this week could solidify the Gulf country’s ties to the US administration, despite a war Riyadh didn’t want.
Trump and MBS in 2025. Tom Brenner/Reuters.Dubai hotel occupancy plummets as war grips region
Hotels have shut floors or entire buildings, cut staff costs, and are offering steep discounts to residents as they prepare for a prolonged slump.
Saudi Arabia opens land and sea trade routes to UAE
The need to cooperate on logistics is helping to reset Riyadh’s fractured relations with the UAE.
Airlines take evasive action to maintain travel flow in the Gulf
Journeys to the airport have become complicated for many Gulf travelers, often involving crossing into a neighboring country where airspace remains open.
Attack on Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar jolts gas markets
The consequences of the attack will affect the global economy until the end of the decade.
Africa
Luc Gnago/Reuters
The Next 3 Billion on Tour Series: Nairobi Edition | Semafor Events
Semafor will convene leaders to advance the conversation on financial inclusion at the intersection of long-term capital, policy, and financial infrastructure.
Africa’s push for a $40 smartphone and the lessons from China
The campaign led by Africa’s biggest mobile networks is one of the most consequential digital policy developments on the continent in years.
Luc Gnago/ReutersChina urges companies to strengthen Zimbabwe compliance
Beijing’s move, which follows Harare’s curbs on lithium exports, is an acknowledgement that even its closest African partners can impose abrupt policy shifts.
US shifts ties with DRC, Rwanda
Washington recently sanctioned elements of Rwanda’s military and reopened limited security cooperation with Kinshasa.
Absa bank plans African expansion
The South African told Semafor that Ghana and Zambia were emerging from financial crises with clear reform paths and stronger private sector appetite.
Iran war drives interest in Dangote refinery fuel
South Africa, the continent’s largest fuel importer, inquired about a 12-month supply contract with the Lagos-based refinery.
Security
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/Reuters
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Omar Sanadiki/Reuters
Europe quietly supports US campaign against Iran
US military bases in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Italy, France, and Greece are fueling and launching American bombers and drones.
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/ReutersIsrael kills Iran intel chief
Esmail Khatib’s death came within 24 hours of Israeli strikes taking out Iran’s security chief and the head of its feared paramilitary force.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via ReutersIsrael kills powerful Iran security chief
Ali Larijani ran Iran’s national security council and was seen as the country’s de facto leader after the former ayatollah was assassinated.
Omar Sanadiki/ReutersMedia
Screenshot of Vox’s website
Vox Media tried to sell its podcasts, and itself
The company now says its podcast network is not for sale.
Screenshot of Vox’s website Newsom calls FCC chairman’s threats ‘sick’
The California governor argued people from all political perspectives should be concerned about federal regulators weighing in on news content.
Why (and how) everyone is cold-calling the president
Plus, what happened when Semafor’s Max Tani gave him a ring.
Oscars mask a Hollywood in crisis
As Hollywood celebrates the Oscars on Sunday, the glitz masks a deeper crisis for the entertainment industry: rising production costs.
AI is the latest gatekeeper between brands and buyers
Companies are now writing ad copy for bots, not people, and those bots are telling consumers what products to buy.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Why CEOs should care about the quantum ‘space race’
IonQ’s Niccolo de Masi says getting quantum security right is ‘a matter of survivability.’
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor How Brian Niccol jolted Starbucks back to growth
Corporate turnarounds require quick decisions and ‘brutal’ feedback for the CEO, Niccol said in the first episode of Semafor’s ‘CEO Signal’ show.
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Kyle Clark got BETA’s air taxis ready for takeoff
The electric aircraft company’s CEO has a ‘burn-the-boats’ approach to decision-making.
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD