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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:27pm EDT
1
Stocks dipped and oil prices rose as skepticism built over a US-Iran peace deal that’s under discussion.
2Major companies warned that consumers will start pulling back on purchases, challenging a narrative of resilient spending amid the Iran war.
3Activists are targeting SpaceX’s massive IPO, which is set to give CEO Elon Musk unchecked power, according to reports.
4Hantavirus is ‘not the next COVID,’ WHO said, as authorities deal with a deadly outbreak on a cruise ship.
5US Secretary of State Marco Rubio looked to ease US-Vatican tensions in an amicable meeting with Pope Leo XIV.
6China’s nuclear arsenal could exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030, bucking conventional wisdom on the limits of Beijing’s ambitions.
Brown-Forman, Pernod deal collapsed over family pride, not price
Heirs of the Kentucky whiskey empire, the smaller of the two companies, wanted more control over the combined company, people familiar with the matter said.
Kevin Wurm/ReutersDavos cracks down on the busy Promenade
The World Economic Forum’s official partners will have more control of the main street, as media and “social entrepreneurs” lose access.
Arnd Wiegmann/ReutersGraham’s Democratic opponent hits him on ballroom funding
“That will go over like a lead balloon in South Carolina,” Democratic challenger Annie Andrews said of the ballroom funds.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersThe Chokepoint Economy: CEOs say the US is resilient — but markets are underpricing risks
The gap in expectations between CEOs running retailers, industrial giants, and other “real economy” companies and Wall Street financiers has grown.
Rare Earth Americas bets on Trump-backed mining boom
Rare Earth Americas listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the first rare earths mining venture to go public in the US since 2010 via a traditional listing.
Chalinee Thirasupa/ReutersInside Lutnick’s Epstein testimony
A spokesperson said the commerce secretary answered nearly 400 questions.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Rubio lands in Italy at difficult moment
President Donald Trump has recently criticized Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Evan Vucci/Reuters 
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Politics
Vatican Media/Simone Risoluti/Handout via ReutersJonathan Ernst/Reuters 
Screenshot/YouTube/Susan Collins
Rubio eases US-Vatican tensions in meeting with pope
The talks followed US President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the leader of the Catholic Church.
Vatican Media/Simone Risoluti/Handout via ReutersInside Lutnick’s Epstein testimony
A spokesperson said the commerce secretary answered nearly 400 questions.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Collins launches first general election ad in Maine
The ad nods to her seniority as Senate Appropriations chair and her sway in Washington.
Screenshot/YouTube/Susan CollinsGraham’s Democratic opponent hits him on ballroom funding
“That will go over like a lead balloon in South Carolina,” Democratic challenger Annie Andrews said of the ballroom funds.
Rubio lands in Italy at difficult moment
President Donald Trump has recently criticized Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Stocks climb on US-Iran deal hopes
Stocks climbed globally and oil prices fell on optimism that the US and Iran were nearing an end to their stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz.
Republicans prepare for long-term redistricting domination
The “gerrymandering wars” have gone better than Democrats expected at the start, but they shouldn’t celebrate yet.
Left-wing groups targeted in new Trump counterterrorism plan
It’s the first version of the strategy released during the president’s second term.
Macron threatens ‘bazooka’ in US trade talks
US President Donald Trump threatened last week to increase tariffs on European vehicles, accusing the bloc of reneging on an agreed deal.
Lutnick faces grilling on Epstein relationship
The commerce secretary is likely to face pointed questions from lawmakers about the nature and extent of his Epstein connections.
CFTC eyes Minnesota as next front for prediction markets fight
Chair Mike Selig is monitoring states that advance legislation that would ban or regulate prediction markets.
Business
Mike Blake/Reuters
Activists target massive SpaceX IPO
Documents show SpaceX is looking to limit investors’ ability to challenge company management.
Mike Blake/ReutersBusinesses warn of lran war denting consumer sentiment
Major companies on Thursday warned that consumers globally will start pulling back on purchases, challenging the narrative of resilient spending despite the Iran war.
Brown-Forman, Pernod deal collapsed over family pride, not price
Heirs of the Kentucky whiskey empire, the smaller of the two companies, wanted more control over the combined company, people familiar with the matter said.
Davos cracks down on the busy Promenade
The World Economic Forum’s official partners will have more control of the main street, as media and “social entrepreneurs” lose access.
Novo Nordisk is big-game hunting
After losing out to Pfizer on Metsera, Novo Nordisk’s CFO told Semafor the company is hunting for even bigger deals.
TechnologyMike Blake/Reuters 
Joe Skipper/Reuters
Activists target massive SpaceX IPO
Documents show SpaceX is looking to limit investors’ ability to challenge company management.
Mike Blake/ReutersAnthropic’s tie up with Elon Musk paves way for space data centers
The partnership hands a big win to OpenAI’s biggest competitor at the peak of Musk’s public feud with OpenAI.
Joe Skipper/ReutersiRobot founder faces Chinese market again
Colin Angle says he’s learned his lessons in competing with China.
The investment banking AI push is a rising tide
Frontier Al labs are slowly encroaching on well-funded startups that have served companies’ industry-specific AI needs.
Little-known materials startup Intalus raises $11M seed round
Intalus’ invention is going to become increasingly important in an economy that is asking more of the physical world.
Companies have already lost control of workplace AI
The utility-to-risk ratio in AI has shifted so far toward utility that companies have already lost control.
Energy
Andrew Wong ASW/TW/ReutersChalinee Thirasupa/Reuters 
Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA/Reuters
Trees counter half of the world’s urban heating, study finds
The cooling effect of trees, however, is concentrated precisely where it’s less needed.
Andrew Wong ASW/TW/ReutersRare Earth Americas bets on Trump-backed mining boom
Rare Earth Americas listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the first rare earths mining venture to go public in the US since 2010 via a traditional listing.
Chalinee Thirasupa/ReutersOil drops on renewed hopes for US-Iran talks
US gasoline prices continued to rise, however, with Donald Trump running out of moves to lower them.
Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/WANA/ReutersGulf
Amr Alfiky/Reuters
US awaits Iran response to truce plan as tensions flare in Hormuz
The US and Iran are getting closer to an agreement to temporarily end hostilities, according to Pakistani officials, even as tensions flared in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amr Alfiky/ReutersEmirates posts record profits for third consecutive year
The airline is the world’s most profitable carrier, despite the Iran war effectively shutting down its home airport at the end of the reporting period.
Abu Dhabi chemicals platform plans $10B investment
The announcement is one of the first big moves made since the government launched a campaign to expand domestic production of critical goods.
ADNOC Drilling taps AI to slash oil rig costs
The UAE national oil company subsidiary expects to invest approximately $1 billion in AI and technology in the coming year.
Saudi Aramco spends big on AI to boost oil output
The supercomputer will offer seven times more compute capacity than Aramco currently has, enabling it to handle larger volumes of data for seismic imaging and reservoir simulations.
China
Tingshu Wang/Reuters
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Handout via Reuters
Andrew Boyers/Reuters
China’s nuclear thinking has shifted
The swift buildup of China’s nuclear arsenal bucks conventional wisdom on the limits of Beijing’s ambitions.
Tingshu Wang/ReutersChina renews call for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen
China pushed for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after hosting Iran’s foreign minister, an exchange that reflected Beijing’s fraught position in the conflict.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Handout via ReutersChina eyes soft power growth with major snooker win
Wu Yize won the World Snooker Championship, a competition traditionally dominated by Europeans.
Andrew Boyers/ReutersAfrica
Stringer/Reuters
Kepseu/Xinhua via Getty Images
Africa seeks self-reliance as Iran war exposes vulnerabilities
Countries are looking to increase oil and gas production along with fertilizers, all hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Stringer/ReutersChina’s Digital Silk Road tightens grip on Africa
China has been the lynchpin in the rollout of transformative technologies in Africa over the past decade, while other nations have fallen behind.
Kepseu/Xinhua via Getty ImagesUgandan pop star-turned-opposition figure Bobi Wine outlines artistic influences
Wine said that art remains central to dissent despite censorship under Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.
Nearly 8 million South Africans use crypto: report
South Africans increasingly see cryptocurrencies as an investment option to supplement traditional assets like stocks and properties.
US plans to reopen ties with Eritrea
The potential move marks the country’s rising strategic importance along the Red Sea shipping route, one of the world’s busiest transport lanes.
Canal+ faces test in South Africa following $2B Multichoice acquisition
The South African pay TV group is preparing to face antitrust regulators over decade-old allegations of collusion.
SecurityAmr Alfiky/Reuters 
Danilson Sequeira/Reuters
Christian Mang/Reuters
US awaits Iran response to truce plan as tensions flare in Hormuz
The US and Iran are getting closer to an agreement to temporarily end hostilities, according to Pakistani officials, even as tensions flared in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amr Alfiky/ReutersHantavirus is ‘not the next COVID,’ WHO says
After a lethal outbreak of hantavirus on a cruise ship, authorities around the world are racing to trace passengers who disembarked.
Danilson Sequeira/ReutersGermany’s Merz marks one year in office
Germany’s chancellor is falling behind on his core goals one year into his tenure, analysts said.
Christian Mang/ReutersMedia
Aaron Schwartz/Reuters
Old news: Why a former New York Times editor blocked Epstein Pulitzer
“Not the best entry,” Joe Sexton told Semafor, referencing Miami Herald investigative reporter Julie Brown’s 2018 series that effectively reopened the Epstein investigation.
Aaron Schwartz/ReutersDispatch exec departs amid uncertainty
Mike Rothman’s exit comes as The Dispatch has explored a potential sale.
How the Fox News hawks got back in Trump’s good graces
And how Marc Thiessen saved Ukraine.
Johnny Harris on building a journalism project that doesn’t sell out
Harris joins Mixed Signals to break down how he went from selling his own plasma to running a YouTube channel with over 7 million subscribers
How the WHCD shooting laid bare the media’s trust crisis
I was at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. Some number of people are convinced we’re not getting the real story.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Dan Schulman’s plan to get Verizon back in the fight
“If somebody’s going to punch me, I’m going to punch back,” Verizon CEO Dan Schulman says in this episode of The CEO Signal.
How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHilton’s Chris Nassetta on why CEOs should ‘lift above the noise’
The longstanding leader says it’s critical to avoid “jerking the wheel.”
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD