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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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Gulf
US, Iran trade more strikes as ceasefire crumbles
The US cannot easily walk away from the conflict, but any likely deal is unpalatable.
Markets reassess post-truce optimism with US-Iran conflict raging
Investors are bracing for prolonged instability in the Middle East.
Markets reassess post-truce optimism with US-Iran conflict raging
Investors are bracing for prolonged instability in the Middle East.
View / The mistrust of AI labs bubbles over
View / Why Platner’s implosion won’t singe the Sanders wing
The World at a Glance
Updated 7:42pm EDT
1
The US and Iran exchanged strikes for a second day, marking the most serious rupture yet in the countries’ crumbling ceasefire.
2The fading prospect of a durable US-Iran ceasefire is forcing investors and energy companies to reassess their post-truce optimism.
3A slate of second-quarter earnings could present the clearest corporate scorecard of the Iran conflict’s impact to date.
4Russia and China are seeking the capability to disable and eventually destroy Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network, an investigation found.
5Beijing is considering restricting global access to its top AI models, as both the US and China look to erect a ‘silicon curtain’ around their most advanced tech.
6The end of Platner’s disastrous bid for a must-win US Senate seat has blunted the party’s efforts to oppose President Trump’s agenda.
Corporate earnings to reveal uneven war impact
The results could boost Trump’s case that the oil industry is profiteering off the fighting.
China mulls curbing foreign access to its AI models
Such a move could raise costs for many US businesses that have become dependent on cheap Chinese AI.
Maine Senate race debacle muddies Democrats’ future
The end of Platner’s disastrous bid for a must-win US Senate seat has blunted Democrats’ efforts to oppose President Trump’s agenda.
Senators want to restore manufacturing program cut by Trump
Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., Jon Husted, R-Ohio, Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, and Andy Kim, D-N.J., are backing the bill.
Americans’ support for immigration falls from record high, poll finds
Seventy-three percent of US adults say immigration is a good thing, according to June Gallup polling, down from 79% who said so last year.
Vance in wait-and-see mode as Iran ceasefire crumbles
The vice president is focusing on domestic priorities while President Donald Trump and the military take point on the conflict.
Saudi-UAE border trade slows amid tensions
Importers and truckers report long lead times for getting goods across the border into the kingdom.
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Politics
Maine Senate race debacle muddies Democrats’ future
The end of Platner’s disastrous bid for a must-win US Senate seat has blunted Democrats’ efforts to oppose President Trump’s agenda.
Brian Snyder/Reuters
Trump’s Supreme Court mulligan ‘exceedingly unlikely,’ experts say
The president faces long odds in trying to get the court to reconsider his defeat on birthright citizenship and E. Jean Carroll’s $5 million civil judgment against him.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Senators want to restore manufacturing program cut by Trump
Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., Jon Husted, R-Ohio, Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, and Andy Kim, D-N.J., are backing the bill.
Kent Nishimura/Reuters
Americans’ support for immigration falls from record high, poll finds
Seventy-three percent of US adults say immigration is a good thing, according to June Gallup polling, down from 79% who said so last year.
Vance in wait-and-see mode as Iran ceasefire crumbles
The vice president is focusing on domestic priorities while President Donald Trump and the military take point on the conflict.
A defiant Platner exits Maine Senate race
The Maine Democrat denied new allegations of sexual assault but conceding that he couldn’t keep running after his party abandoned him.
Trump keeps shifting tone on NATO
The US president offered both sticks and carrots to NATO, threatening to cut off trade with Spain before offering rare praise for the alliance.
US to help Ukraine build Patriot interceptors
The move stops short of the immediate transfer of Patriots to Ukraine that Kyiv would have preferred, but nevertheless is welcome news to European officials.
US launches new strikes on Iran
President Donald Trump warned earlier Wednesday that a US attack was imminent.
Why Platner’s implosion won’t singe the Sanders wing
The founding myth of the Sanders camp is that it sits outside the Democratic Party. But the reality is that he and his faithful are now inside.
Rubio makes it official: Trump will remove Syrian terrorism designation
The secretary of state formalized the president’s plans in a notification to Congress, ending a 47-year blacklist.
Business
Russia-China effort targets Starlink
Russia and China are seeking the capability to disable and eventually destroy Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network, an investigation found, as the allies deepen their clandestine military cooperation.
Jeenah Moon/Reuters
Corporate earnings to reveal uneven war impact
The results could boost Trump’s case that the oil industry is profiteering off the fighting.
Markets reassess post-truce optimism
Investors and energy companies are reassessing their post-truce optimism and brace for prolonged instability in the Middle East.
Prediction markets hit a federal snag
An SDNY judge’s ruling against Kalshi gives powerful ammunition to the 16 other states that have filed similar claims against prediction markets.
Blue Origin plays catch-up
Jeff Bezos’ space startup is seeking to raise $10 billion at a $130 billion valuation.
Technology
China mulls curbing foreign access to its AI models
Such a move could raise costs for many US businesses that have become dependent on cheap Chinese AI.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Starbucks starts vibe coding enterprise stack
The CTO of Starbucks said the company is developing in-house AI tools to replace software it relies on Microsoft and IBM for.
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol. Brendan McDermid/Reuters.
AI makes mistakes, too
A Codex glitch sent my agent into a loop where it kept reviewing a bunch of data over and over again, racking up tokens — an entirely avoidable problem.
China pitches the world on open-source AI
Beijing is leaning on its geopolitical allies to advance its vision of open-source AI, as it looks to shape how the technology is governed worldwide and pitch itself as the developing world’s AI partner of choice.
DeepSeek takes control of its hardware: report
DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip for inference, Reuters reported.
Trump’s ‘sober’ approach to quantum
Government officials pushed the importance of domestic supply chain security at a quantum event Tuesday.
Energy
Permitting major obstacle to energy infrastructure buildout
The issue is “most acute” in the US, JP Morgan says, but can also be seen in lengthening construction timelines in Australia, Canada, Germany, and the UK.
Carlos Barria/File Photo/Reuters
Russia bans diesel exports as fuel crisis deepens
Ukrainian strikes on refineries have led to the worst fuel shortages since the fall of the Soviet Union.
An attack on an oil refinery outside Moscow. Social Media/via Reuters.
Saudi Arabia slashes main crude oil price for Asian customers
Despite the discount, Asian buyers said Saudi supplies were still more expensive than those from other regional producers.
Ali Jarekji/Reuters
Gulf
Corporate earnings to reveal uneven war impact
The results could boost Trump’s case that the oil industry is profiteering off the fighting.
Kim Soo-hyeon/File Photo/Reuters
Markets reassess post-truce optimism
Investors and energy companies are reassessing their post-truce optimism and brace for prolonged instability in the Middle East.
US, Iran trade more strikes as ceasefire crumbles
The US cannot easily walk away from the conflict, but any likely deal is unpalatable.
UAE attracts record FDI in 2025
FDI into West Asia, a region tracked by the UN that includes the Gulf, rose 20% last year to nearly $111 billion, with the UAE attracting record numbers.
Saudi-UAE border trade slows amid tensions
Importers and truckers report long lead times for getting goods across the border into the kingdom.
China
China mulls curbing foreign access to its AI models
Such a move could raise costs for many US businesses that have become dependent on cheap Chinese AI.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Russia-China effort targets Starlink
Russia and China are seeking the capability to disable and eventually destroy Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network, an investigation found, as the allies deepen their clandestine military cooperation.
Jeenah Moon/Reuters
US, China space ventures raise capital
Commercial space ventures in the US and China are tapping broader pools of capital as the superpowers vie for dominance in a fierce space race.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Africa
Senegal’s president to set up new political party
The move follows weeks of political turbulence between Senegalese officials over how to handle the country’s debt crisis.
Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Mike Segar/Reuters.
South Africa’s Treasury freezes Johannesburg budget
The decision is part of a crackdown on allegedly wasteful spending just months before local government elections.
Shafiek Tassiem/Reuters
Nigeria opens $250M lithium processing plant
The plant, built by Chinese companies Jiuling and Canmax, will process 3 million metric tons of lithium ore per year.
South Africa mulls tax cuts to boost industrial growth
The move comes after the country lost its top spot as Africa’s most industrialized economy.
Ghana gold dispute draws in president’s brother
A legal row involving a company run by a brother of the Ghanaian president threatens to dent investor confidence in the country’s mining sector.
East African animators break onto global stage
The Addis-Ababa-based studio behind ‘Sunday Morning’ took home two awards.
Security
Trump’s renewed attacks ‘blindside’ NATO
A raft of new defense investments by NATO members haven’t proved enough to appease the US leader.
Stoyan Nenov/Reuters
Zelenskyy says Trump has changed mind on war
The US president “wants to be where there’s success,” Zelenskyy told the Financial Times.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Fearing Russian aggression, Eastern Europe prepares
Along Europe’s eastern flank, countries are stockpiling, fortifying, and preparing to go it alone in the face of Russian aggression.
Kuba Stezycki/Reuters
Media
NYT tries to catch up to video-addicted audiences
New York Times Executive Editor Joe Kahn said the paper is pouring resources into visual content, prompting comparisons to the media’s “pivot to video” in the 2010s.
Joe Kahn with Semafor’s Ben Smith in 2025. Eleanor Kaufman/Semafor.
The Daily Wire sells Jeremy’s Razors to media company’s former CEO
The sale represents the further uncoupling of Jeremy Boreing and the conservative media company he co-founded with Ben Shapiro.
‘The View’ throttles back political candidate bookings following FCC inquiry
Since February, the ABC daytime talk show has cut its bookings of candidates for office.
Daily Wire, under pressure, seeks strategic investors, targets IPO
The Daily Wire is in talks to take on at least $100 million in investment, with an eye on an initial public offering in a few years’ time.
OpenAI’s $100 billion ad bet
The tech giant rolled out new tools for creatives.
CEO Signal
How Allianz’s CEO prepares for the risk of ‘huge havoc’
Oliver Bäte says Europe can no longer afford all the options its citizens expect.
Courtesy of Allianz/Graph Massara/Semafor
The MSCI boss helping Elon Musk get closer to Mars
Henry Fernandez says the index provider has grown by playing soccer, not singles tennis.
Courtesy of MSCI/Graph Massara/Semafor
How Antonio Neri turned HPE into an unlikely AI stock
The veteran dealmaker says he’s ‘building the best networking business on the planet’.
Courtesy of HPE/Graph Massara/Semafor
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