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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / We’re in the ‘call me, maybe’ era of M&A
View / ‘Chinamaxxing’ isn’t enough. Superpowers need to talk in real life, too.
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:05pm EDT
1
The UAE said it would leave OPEC, landing a major blow to the global oil cartel as it grapples with the fallout of the Iran war.
2Top Chinese leaders pledged to accelerate the country’s self-reliance and energy independence in the wake of the Iran war.
3China’s CATL raised $5B in a Hong Kong listing as it looks to leverage booming demand amid the Iran war.
4Asian economies are proving resilient in the face of the global shock sparked by the Iran war.
5Brazilian plane maker Embraer reported a record backlog as carriers flocked to its fuel-efficient E-Jet amid a fuel crunch.
6Israel will see ‘another year of fighting on all … fronts,’ the country’s army chief of staff said.
FCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
Paul Morigi/Getty Images for SemaforTreasury directs banks to steer clear of China’s ‘teapot’ refineries
The Trump administration has already imposed sanctions on five of the facilities, which import and refine Iranian oil.
Suzanne Plunkett/ReutersMark Cuban’s next target: Insurance companies
After taking on pharmacies with his discount-drug startup, the billionaire is taking on health insurers with a skunkworks project dubbed “The 10 Plan.”
Oil rises on stalled Iran-US peace talks
President Donald Trump canceled American participation in talks with Iran.
Thaier Al Sudani/ReutersCongress unlikely to fast-track Trump’s ballroom after dinner attack
Republicans are divided over how to approve the project, and Democrats aren’t convinced it’s justified by Saturday’s shooting incident.
Elizabeth Frantz/ReutersWHCD suspect charged as ballroom fight builds
Prosecutors filed charges against the alleged White House Correspondents’ Association dinner shooter, including “attempted assassination of the president.”
Kylie Cooper/ReutersDR Congo plans new $100M mine security force
The US and UAE-funded operation will see the country hire 20,000 mining guards by 2028.
Jonny Hogg/File Photo/Reuters
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Politics
Eric Lee/ReutersSuzanne Plunkett/Reuters Paul Morigi/Getty Images for Semafor
‘Horsesh*t’: Hill Republicans align against Spirit’s bid for a Trump bailout
As the president considers a government lifeline for the struggling airline, a wide swath of his party wants no part of it.
Eric Lee/ReutersTreasury directs banks to steer clear of China’s ‘teapot’ refineries
The Trump administration has already imposed sanctions on five of the facilities, which import and refine Iranian oil.
Suzanne Plunkett/ReutersFCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
Paul Morigi/Getty Images for SemaforAmericans’ concerns about energy prices spike, poll finds
Thirteen percent of Americans singled ot energy costs as their most important financial problem, according to new Gallup polling.
Why it’s still JD Vance
The vice president remains the overwhelmingly likely Republican nominee in 2028, regardless of conventional wisdom.
Congress unlikely to fast-track Trump’s ballroom after dinner attack
Republicans are divided over how to approve the project, and Democrats aren’t convinced it’s justified by Saturday’s shooting incident.
King Charles kicks off Washington visit
King Charles III and Queen Camilla arrived at the White House on Monday, marking the first such visit by a British monarch in nearly two decades.
Axel Springer, Politico execs meet with staff after letter warns CEO risks ‘undermining our reputation’
The letter singled out two recent op-eds by parent company CEO Matthias Dopfner.
WHCD suspect charged as ballroom fight builds
Prosecutors filed charges against the alleged White House Correspondents’ Association dinner shooter, including “attempted assassination of the president.”
UK hopes king’s US visit improves ties
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has infuriated Donald Trump by refusing to take part in the Iran war.
Debatable: Universal basic income
Elon Musk wants to send direct payments to Americans to offset AI’s impact.
Business
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. Chip Somodevilla/Pool via Reuters
We’re in the ‘call me, maybe’ era of M&A
Deal talks used to be private. Now, they’re anything but secret.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. Chip Somodevilla/Pool via ReutersFCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
Mark Cuban’s next target: Insurance companies
After taking on pharmacies with his discount-drug startup, the billionaire is taking on health insurers with a skunkworks project dubbed “The 10 Plan.”
Major central banks set to hold interest rates steady
Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will all maintain rates at current levels.
AI stock enthusiasm heats back up
AI enthusiasm in equity markets roared back before a crucial week for Big Tech.
Technology
Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters 
Brendan McDermid/File Photo/Reuters
Demand rises for ID verification amid AI advancements
One startup, Kibu, raised $10.5 million in its seed round as it looks to build out an ID verification app.
Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters AI stock enthusiasm heats back up
AI enthusiasm in equity markets roared back before a crucial week for Big Tech.
Brendan McDermid/File Photo/ReutersMusk pitches ‘universal high income’
It’s the least he could do, Semafor’s Tech editor writes, considering how much money AI will make him when his Optimus robots start replacing all human jobs.
Google CEO says 75% of company’s new code is AI-generated
Meta targets similar levels by midyear.
Expect more tech layoffs
They were a long time coming, and a good thing for the tech ecosystem.
AIs hunt for signs of intelligent life
Scientists are using Nvidia GPUs to examine the data produced by telescopes like the James Webb, regularly discovering the oldest galaxies in the universe.
Energy
Cesar Olmedo/Reuters
Amit Dave/Reuters
Leah Millis/Reuters
Green fertilizer plant to break ground in Paraguay
Atome will construct a 260,000-ton-per-year plant in Villeta, the first industrial-scale facility of its kind.
Cesar Olmedo/ReutersIndia power demand hits record amid heat wave
The surge, driven by household air conditioning use, points to the challenges facing India as it grapples with fuel shortages.
Amit Dave/ReutersTexas data center crisis offers cautionary AI tale
Fermi’s share price has crashed, and its CEO and CFO both left their posts this weekend.
Leah Millis/ReutersGulf
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
The UAE’s OPEC exit is no surprise
Countries with cheap extraction costs, massive reserves, and diversified economies — the UAE fits all three — can afford to go it alone.
Maxim Shemetov/ReutersUAE’s Saudi schism deepens with move to quit OPEC
The UAE’s announcement that it will quit OPEC is a blow to the cartel, which has struggled in recent years to maintain unity.
Superyacht linked to Russian oligarch sails through Hormuz
The ship’s passage follows talks between Iran’s foreign minister and Russia’s president this week.
Bahrain strips citizenship from Iran ‘sympathizers’
It’s the first known instance of citizenship being stripped from a large number of people in a Gulf country for sympathizing with Iran.
Pakistan walks tightrope between the Gulf and Iran
Pakistan has taken on a mediation role that draws on its ties with Tehran, while it seeks to keep its financial lifeline with the Gulf intact.
Africa
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
Campaign posters of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in 2019. Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters.
Scaling up industrialization in Africa
The Iran war has shown the power of industrialization in Africa to safeguard against global shocks.
Sodiq Adelakun/ReutersNigerian opposition agree to field single presidential candidate
But it remains unclear who this will be, or how and when they will be selected.
Campaign posters of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in 2019. Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters.New digital atlas sheds light on Africa’s wetlands
Since the 1970s more than a third of the world’s wetlands have disappeared, largely due to climate change and urbanization.
DR Congo plans new $100M mine security force
The US and UAE-funded operation will see the country hire 20,000 mining guards by 2028.
Faulty assumptions leave Africa unprepared for a prolonged Iran shock
The continent should focus on pursuing greater regional integration and diversification, two experts argue.
South Africa hunts for nuclear talent abroad as new reactor plans advance
The country faces a severe shortage of nuclear engineers after many left for opportunities in countries such as the UAE.
Security
US Marine Corps/Handout via Reuters
Michael Schindler/Handout via Reuters
EU Copernicus via Reuters
Trump issues ‘shoot and kill’ order amid Hormuz standoff
US President Donald Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” Iranian boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Marine Corps/Handout via ReutersSome experts dismiss ‘apocalyptic talk’ of Hormuz disruptions
The economic damage might fall short of an all-out catastrophe, some analysts argued.
Michael Schindler/Handout via ReutersUS-Iran standoff in Strait of Hormuz escalates
Iran said that the US blockade of the Strait was a red line if negotiations are to continue.
EU Copernicus via ReutersMedia
Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters
How the WHCD shooting laid bare the media’s trust crisis
I was at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. Some number of people are convinced we’re not getting the real story.
Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters FCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
What’s next for Letterboxd?
The controlling investor in Letterboxd, the cinephile social platform, is looking to sell its stake.
LeBron James is getting ready for his post-NBA media career, partner says
In an appearance at last week’s Semafor World Economy gathering, Maverick Carter said that changes in the tech and media landscape will allow James some flexibility in terms of his next moves once he retires — which could be as soon as later this month.
CNN backpedals after booker turns away guest for merger segment
“No one advised any editorial employee at CNN not to pursue this story,” a CNN spokesperson said.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Issei Kato/Reuters
How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHilton’s Chris Nassetta on why CEOs should ‘lift above the noise’
The longstanding leader says it’s critical to avoid “jerking the wheel.”
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Ivan Espinosa got Nissan to face reality
Nissan’s vehicle sales and share price have plummeted. Espinosa has a mandate to turn them around.
Issei Kato/Reuters AD