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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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Larry Summers’ new chart sounds the inflation alarm
View / Microsoft doesn’t mind following the leader on AI
The World at a Glance
Updated 10:10am EDT
1
Mediators were reportedly racing to secure a US-Iran ceasefire ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
2Oil prices dipped and stocks inched higher on hopes for an 11th-hour ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.
3The Iran war is proving to be a ‘strategic defeat’ for the US, several leading analysts argued.
4Iran executed two men over purported ties to the US and Israel, part of a broader crackdown by Tehran.
5Cuba released more than 2,000 political prisoners in a possible move to appease Washington, which has sought regime change in Havana.
6Chocolate prices should fall by Halloween, analysts forecast, after tight supply chains drove up costs during the Easter period.
Maryland’s biggest newspaper is going after the governor’s 2028 campaign
The owner of Maryland’s biggest paper and TV stations is keeping close tabs on his outlet’s investigation of Gov. Wes Moore.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images Why Vance is headed to Hungary
He’s hoping to boost Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the country’s looming election.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Emma Walmsley on leading and leaving GSK
What does it take to hand over a company after years at the helm?
Courtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforSwalwell-FBI flap could backfire on Trump administration
The Democratic lawmaker is in the thick of his California gubernatorial campaign.
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersTrump overhauls metal, drug tariffs
Makers of brand-name drugs who refuse the US’ demands to lower prices and relocate manufacturing to the US will face tariffs of 100%.
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersWorld views China better than US, poll finds
A median 36% of those polled across more than 130 countries approve of China’s leadership, while 31% approve of US leadership.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters Trump ousts Bondi from atop the Justice Department
The president made his decision official Thursday afternoon in an interview with Fox.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
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PoliticsJonathan Ernst/Reuters 
Brendan McDermid/Reuters 
Alex Brandon/Pool via Reuters
Why Vance is headed to Hungary
He’s hoping to boost Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the country’s looming election.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Larry Summers’ new chart sounds the inflation alarm
The economist has shared with associates his view that the American fiscal and economic situations would be worryingly fragile even without a war.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters Trump issues expletive-laden threat against Iran
US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb all of Iran’s power plants and destroy its bridges if Tehran didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Alex Brandon/Pool via ReutersPope Leo XIV calls for peace in first Easter address
Pope Leo XIV warned the world is becoming “accustomed to violence,” urging leaders in his first Easter address to end conflict and prioritize dialogue.
White House asks Congress to spend big on defense
The Trump administration asked lawmakers to boost defense spending by 42% while cutting all other spending by 10%.
Debatable: Paying TSA workers
Trump went around Congress to pay TSA workers during the shutdown. There are doubts about the legality of his move.
World views China better than US, poll finds
A median 36% of those polled across more than 130 countries approve of China’s leadership, while 31% approve of US leadership.
Trump to propose 2027 budget
The president earlier this year suggested he could seek a defense budget of $1.5 trillion, which is about 50% more than lawmakers greenlit for this fiscal year.
Swalwell-FBI flap could backfire on Trump administration
The Democratic lawmaker is in the thick of his California gubernatorial campaign.
The world marks one year since ‘Liberation Day’
The US trade deficit increased last month, new data showed, exactly one year after President Donald Trump unveiled his sweeping tariff regime.
US destroys key Iran bridge as Trump threats fail to calm markets
Donald Trump’s renewed threats against Iran failed to drastically change the dynamic of the war or ease the market’s anxious posture.
Business
Mike Blake/Reuters
US inflation likely spiked in March, economists predict
The Iran war likely drove up US consumer prices in March, economists predicted ahead of key inflation data expected this week.
Mike Blake/ReutersAI startups boost Hong Kong IPOs
Listings on Hong Kong’s stock exchange reached a five-year high in the first quarter of 2026, driven by investor appetite for AI and chips.
The three questions a CEO should ask about their AI agents
Okta’s Todd McKinnon sees a digital workforce creating new vulnerabilities.
Why JLL is betting its biggest clients will drive growth in ‘crazy’ times
Christian Ulbrich says companies succeed by reducing complexity for their clients.
Tesla sees modest quarterly sales uptick
Tesla sold slightly more cars in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, but the figures missed expectations and failed to impress investors.
Technology
Courtesy of Anthropic
Priyanshu Singh/Reuters
Anthropic eyes its own version of OpenClaw
The popularity of OpenClaw, the agent platform that OpenAI acquired, has crystallized another big AI race.
Courtesy of AnthropicSycophantic AI might make us meaner, research suggests
A study found that AIs fed interpersonal dilemmas from the subreddit r/amItheasshole were twice as likely as humans to endorse the user’s behavior.
Priyanshu Singh/ReutersThe next generation of Silicon Valley garage startups is here
This time around, it’s the bedroom coders, some of whom are still in their teens.
Pentagon taps humanoid robot startups
Gun-shooting humanoid robots fighting on the front lines are becoming less of a dystopian fantasy.
Microsoft doesn’t mind following the leader on AI
Being first isn’t necessarily the same as winning.
OpenAI’s talk show acquisition points to the industry’s image problem
The story around AI has turned negative in many corners of the world outside of Silicon Valley.
Energy
Marco Bello/Reuters
Punit Paranjpe/File Photo/Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
Venezuela’s March oil exports boom
The boost in sales comes as part of US efforts to liberalize the country’s oil sector, which has spurred interest from investors.
Marco Bello/ReutersAsian oil refiners feel the heat from MidEast energy shortages
The Iran war is squeezing Asia’s oil refiners, forcing them to pay more or reduce output.
Punit Paranjpe/File Photo/ReutersThe oil market’s most important signals
There are a few key data points to watch out for to understand the real state of the energy market.
Stringer/ReutersGulf
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
Civilian toll mounts in Iran as war presses on
There have been twice as many US and Israeli attacks on Iran compared to the number of Iranian retaliatory strikes since the war began.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/ReutersLimited tanker flow returns to Hormuz
Iran provided an exemption for Iraqi tankers, adding to the vessels from Asian countries that have gained safe passage.
Riyadh evacuates main business hub over Iran threat
Businesses have been told not to send employees into work at King Abdullah Financial Center.
Iran’s oil coffers bolstered by war
The US-Israeli attacks may have devastated Iran’s leadership and military, but the conflict has bolstered its oil income.
The cost of ‘war insurance’ in the Gulf has risen 1,900%
Traditional commercial insurance policies don’t cover armed conflict, sending property owners and developers to the specialty war market.
Africa
Alet Pretorius/Reuters
US Dept. of Defense photo by Senior Airman Devlin Bishop/Getty Images
South Africa mulls migration overhaul to boost economic growth
The rewrite seeks to attract so-called “designer migrants,” in order to address labor shortages in health care, engineering, and technology.
Alet Pretorius/ReutersDR Congo strikes deal to accept US deportees
The agreements are part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration.
US Dept. of Defense photo by Senior Airman Devlin Bishop/Getty ImagesSenegal bans non-essential government travel due to fuel price surge
The West African country, which depends heavily on imported energy, has been hit by the growing cost of oil.
World Bank agrees $540M Uganda urbanization financing package
The funding aims to enhance all-weather roads, stormwater drainage, street lighting, and public markets.
Sahel coups push Africa to top of global democratic declines, report finds
The sharpest setbacks were linked to a wave of military takeovers in the Sahel and parts of central Africa, International IDEA said.
Wealthy Chinese are transforming Zimbabwe’s housing market
A growing number of Chinese immigrants has prompted real estate agencies to hire Mandarin speakers.
Security
Ann Wang/Reuters
David Dee Delgado/Reuters
NATO chief Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Taiwan faces tenuous defense future, ex-official warns
The island, which China claims as a regengade province, faces a political deadlock over a military spending bill.
Ann Wang/ReutersTrump fails to reassure investors on Iran war
Oil prices jumped and stocks fell after Trump’s address to the nation, in which he vowed to continue Iran attacks.
David Dee Delgado/ReutersTrump threatens to pull US out of NATO
The US president called the military alliance a ‘paper tiger’ for its refusal to back his war with Iran.
NATO chief Mark Rutte and US President Donald Trump. Jonathan Ernst/ReutersMediaJim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
Maryland’s biggest newspaper is going after the governor’s 2028 campaign
The owner of Maryland’s biggest paper and TV stations is keeping close tabs on his outlet’s investigation of Gov. Wes Moore.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images Joanna Stern on how AI told her to quit The Wall Street Journal
“It felt like the one big decision where I actually did trust AI,” she told Semafor’s “Mixed Signals” podcast.
Biden vet launches biweekly streaming show
Rob Flaherty and Jesse Lehrich will launch Nobody Knows Anything, a 90-minute biweekly show, later this month.
Axel Springer’s Döpfner courts UK conservative elites
The German mogul is courting regulators and the country’s influential conservative political figures as he attempts to get his bid to buy the Telegraph approved.
Substack rival Beehiiv makes a push into podcasting
Beehiiv has privately been reaching out to independent podcasters on Substack and other platforms.
CEO SignalCourtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of Okta/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of JLL/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Emma Walmsley on leading and leaving GSK
What does it take to hand over a company after years at the helm?
Courtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforThe three questions a CEO should ask about their AI agents
Okta’s Todd McKinnon sees a digital workforce creating new vulnerabilities.
Courtesy of Okta/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy JLL is betting its biggest clients will drive growth in ‘crazy’ times
Christian Ulbrich says companies succeed by reducing complexity for their clients.
Courtesy of JLL/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD