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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:42am EST
1
Russia’s battlefield casualties are rising, as signs grow of an impending economic crisis.
2An Anthropic safety researcher quit, warning that safety concerns about AI tools were being minimized in favor of profit.
3Argentina’s inflation rate accelerated for a fifth straight month, suggesting Javier Milei’s campaign to slash soaring prices may be faltering.
4The US and China are vying for influence in Pakistan, particularly in the mineral-rich but violence-prone Balochistan region.
5Mattel’s shares slumped 31% after it announced weak December sales, which the Barbie maker blamed on US tariffs.
6China’s annual inflation rate rose just 0.2% last month, feeding fears of deflation in the world’s second-largest economy.
Nigeria steps up US lobbying push
The country’s first lady joined Nigerian lobbying efforts to counter the growing Christian genocide narrative on Capitol Hill.
First Lady Remi Tinubu on a state visit with President Bola Tinubu to France. Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters. China’s AI industry gears up for pivotal week
Alibaba, Baidu, and ByteDance plan to release the newest versions of their flagship AI models around the Lunar New Year holiday.
Aly Song/Reuters‘It’s despicable’: Republicans question how long Lutnick can survive his Epstein crisis
The Commerce secretary is a close friend of the president. But others in the party are unsettled.
Elizabeth Frantz/ReutersGulf states may boost education grants to needy countries
The Global Partnership for Education aims to raise $5 billion by 2030, with a bigger portion from Gulf donors than previous rounds.
Students sharing a textbook in class in Gambia. Jim Cham/Global Partnership for Education.AD
Democrats agonize over their Texas Senate primary
Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., told Semafor he’s backing James Talarico over Jasmine Crockett. But it’s not clear how many others will choose a side.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersParamount tries to force Warner Bros.′ hand with new ‘ticking fee’
The company isn’t increasing its bid — yet — but has fired a new salvo in its efforts to get Warner Bros. to come to the negotiating table.
Mike Blake/File Photo/ReutersEPA to rescind landmark US climate policy
The policy provides the legal foundation for rules regulating greenhouse gas emissions.
Kent Nishimura/File Photo/Reuters
Politics
Dax Melmer/Reuters
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters 
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
Trump vows to block opening of new bridge to Canada
Trump said the structure would not open until Ottawa “treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve.”
Dax Melmer/ReutersNSA pick warns of China pursuing AI chips for weapons
Lt. Gen. Joshua Rudd weighed in on the issue in response to written questions from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Hawley fumes at FDA over abortion drug study
The Missouri Republican told Semafor he was “really disappointed” in the FDA, which is led by Marty Makary.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters House clears way for tariff votes
Democrats could start forcing votes on the tariffs as soon as Wednesday.
‘It’s despicable’: Republicans question how long Lutnick can survive his Epstein crisis
The Commerce secretary is a close friend of the president. But others in the party are unsettled.
Democrats agonize over their Texas Senate primary
Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., told Semafor he’s backing James Talarico over Jasmine Crockett. But it’s not clear how many others will choose a side.
Fewer Americans think they’ll live quality lives, poll finds
Fewer than six in ten Americans expect their future lives to be close to ideal.
US House’s tariff rebukes could get to Trump’s desk
The House is expected to vote on whether to allow its members to start disapproving of the president’s tariffs.
Talks pick up ahead of DHS shutdown deadline
Democratic leaders criticized the White House’s latest offer as “incomplete and insufficient.”
House to pass package of bipartisan housing proposals
The legislation will serve as the House’s starting position in negotiations with the Senate.
Poll finds Americans optimistic on economy, stock market
Forty-nine percent of US adults believe economic growth will rise in the first half of this year, according to Gallup.
Business
Carlos Barria/File Photo/Reuters
Google goes long with 100-year bond
Alphabet’s $11.5 billion bond sale is notable for two things: Its debt is really cheap, and a chunk of it will outlive anyone who bought it.
Carlos Barria/File Photo/ReutersTarget attempts turnaround as Walmart hits $1 trillion in market value
Shares in the retailer fell 2% Tuesday after the company cut 500 management jobs and promoted two insiders to new roles, including its chief merchant.
AI executives are thinking in centuries. Can they take the markets with them?
The engine of the global economy, Silicon Valley, looks suspiciously like the long-term stewardship BlackRock’s Larry Fink has been begging for since 2015.
Paramount tries to force Warner Bros.′ hand with new ‘ticking fee’
The company isn’t increasing its bid — yet — but has fired a new salvo in its efforts to get Warner Bros. to come to the negotiating table.
CEOs, lawmakers look to tackle infrastructure ‘bottlenecks’
BlackRock’s Larry Fink is planning a summit in Washington to address the $85 trillion in capital and thousands of trade jobs needed in the AI era.
Technology
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Denis Balibouse/Reuters
Florence Lo/Reuters
Anthropic safety researcher quits, warning ‘world is in peril’
Other AI safety researchers have also left leading firms, citing concerns about potentially catastrophic risks.
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Denis Balibouse/ReutersHow OpenAI got comfortable with the Pentagon using ChatGPT
The tech giant announced the US military will now have access to its chatbot.
Florence Lo/Reuters Google goes long with 100-year bond
Alphabet’s $11.5 billion bond sale is notable for two things: Its debt is really cheap, and a chunk of it will outlive anyone who bought it.
Chinese firms race to ease global memory-chip shortage
US PC makers are considering sourcing memory chips from China as shortages bite.
Wall Street still doesn’t understand AI
The way the market views AI is completely irrational, driven more by viral “it’s so over” X posts than logic or fundamentals.
Startups builds underwater robots to better track ocean movements
The robots will record movement, temperature, and salinity daily, aiming to reduce the cost of gathering ocean data by a factor of 1,000.
Energy
Manon Cruz/File Photo/Reuters
Yoruk Isik/File Photo/Reuters
Diego Vara/File Photo/Reuters
Global electricity demand to surge through 2030, report finds
Despite a boom in electricity demand, emissions should remain relatively flat thanks to progress being made on renewables, according to the IEA.
Manon Cruz/File Photo/ReutersWashington ramps up pressure on Russian oil exports
On Monday, US forces intercepted another tanker allegedly part of Russia’s sanctions-dodging “shadow fleet.”
Yoruk Isik/File Photo/ReutersCarbon data firm expands into broader green commodities
The CEO of Sylvera told Semafor that it will offer insights about carbon-intensive commodities that are increasingly exposed to taxes and tariffs.
Diego Vara/File Photo/ReutersGulf
cnsphoto via Reuters
Qatar expands LNG fleet to support energy ambitions
QatarEnergy CEO Saad Sherida al-Kaabi called the fleet expansion the biggest shipbuilding program in the LNG industry’s history.
cnsphoto via ReutersGulf states build on UAE’s Mars breakthrough
The Gulf’s space ambitions are expanding five years after the UAE became the first Arab nation to establish a scientific presence on Mars.
Plans for first Gulf casino boost UAE luxury developer RAK
Plans for the Gulf’s first casino, in the once-sleepy emirate of Ras Al Khaimah, have been a boon for RAK Properties.
Saudi’s HUMAIN invests in sports AI
HUMAIN acquired a controlling stake in ai.oi, a UK company that uses AI to scout for sporting talent and suggest improvements for athletes’ performance.
Epstein never cracked the Gulf. After death, he’s finally a player.
The late sex offender’s leaked emails have revived old conspiracies and fueled the Saudi-UAE spat.
AfricaFirst Lady Remi Tinubu on a state visit with President Bola Tinubu to France. Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters. 
Esa Alexander/Reuters
Nigeria steps up US lobbying push
The country’s first lady joined Nigerian lobbying efforts to counter the growing Christian genocide narrative on Capitol Hill.
First Lady Remi Tinubu on a state visit with President Bola Tinubu to France. Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters. South Africa mining minister criticizes DRC over US minerals deal
Gwede Mantashe urged African states to “deepen collaboration” on mining critical minerals.
Esa Alexander/ReutersAfrica is grappling with how to benefit from the minerals boom
Have policymakers identified ways to retool their industries, and their economies, to benefit from the mining supercycle?
South Africa moves closer to duty-free access to China market
The two countries agreed to expand bilateral trade and investment in areas including mining, agriculture, renewable energy, and technology.
Africa’s electricity demand surged in 2025
Data showed improved electricity supply in South Africa — which accounts for a quarter of the region’s consumption — led the boost.
How to fix Ghana’s gold export challenge
Accra must learn from countries such as Thailand and build a knowledge ecosystem around its precious reserves.
Security
Staff Sgt. Roidan Carlson/Handout via Reuters
Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters
Stephanie Lecocq/Reuters
US weighs expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal
Within hours of New START lapsing last week, a senior State Department official complained of the pact’s “unacceptable” constraints.
Staff Sgt. Roidan Carlson/Handout via ReutersEU planning to expedite Ukraine’s entry into the bloc
Ukraine received EU candidate status in 2022, but progress has been stalled by Hungary.
Stephanie Lecocq/ReutersMacron signals possible resumption of dialogue with Russia
Macron broke off dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin seven months after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Stephanie Lecocq/ReutersMedia
Ken Cedeno/Reuters
Washington Post suffers marketing mishap with new slogan
The paper had prepared a new brand campaign, with a new tagline meant to convey its connection to America: “We The People.”
Ken Cedeno/Reuters New emails show how Epstein used the media to rehab his reputation
Most of the revelations in the files have not revealed journalistic sins, but have highlighted uncomfortably close relationships.
Washington Post CEO resigns, leaving no clear strategy
Will Lewis and Jeff Bezos presided over a sharp decline at the definitive Washington newspaper.
How McDonald’s embraced its Donald Trump drive-thru moment
Former CMO Tariq Hassan on why brands shouldn’t run away from news, politics and controversy.
Post cuts ripple through US journalism industry
But people who’ve spoken to owner Jeff Bezos say there’s no sign he’s looking to sell.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of GE Vernova/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of the Gates Foundation/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Takeda/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
The CEO behind GE Vernova’s $200B power surge
Scott Strazik says demand is surging, but his energy company won’t spend money on “hobbies.”
Courtesy of GE Vernova/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow the Gates Foundation’s CEO plans to shape its last 20 years
Mark Suzman wants to reframe the case for aid in the face of government cuts and intense public scrutiny
Courtesy of the Gates Foundation/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforTakeda’s Christophe Weber on avoiding a ‘lame duck’ succession
The pharmaceutical CEO says timing and openness are crucial to a smooth handover.
Courtesy of Takeda/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD