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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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Business
Brown-Forman rejects Sazerac approach
The closely held liquor giant has been the subject of multiple takeover efforts in recent months.
How Bruce Van Saun united Citizens against America’s biggest banks
The superregional lender’s CEO has made a virtue of its place in “the middle of the river.”
How Bruce Van Saun united Citizens against America’s biggest banks
The superregional lender’s CEO has made a virtue of its place in “the middle of the river.”
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:28pm EDT
1
Kyiv attacked an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea, showing how the Ukraine and Iran wars are effectively merging.
2Donald Trump faces a narrow set of options in Iran as the conflict entered a lull after weeks of attacks.
3Russia is suffering from “narrative collapse” in its war against Ukraine as Kyiv turns the tide in the conflict.
4A wave of US tech executives, led by Nvidia’s CEO, rushed to back the development of open-source AI models.
5Youth-led protests forced the resignation of India’s education minister, a rare concession from Narendra Modi’s government.
6A deadly attack on a Pride celebration in Berlin inflamed Europe’s fraught debate over migration and extremism.
Trump ducks Supreme Court with new tariffs
The levies replace tariffs that expired on Friday.
Internal videos show how Polymarket trained creators on fake bets
A training presentation reveals how the company made a ‘fakecharts’ platform for influencers.
Warren steps up her campaign surrogate travel
Senate Democrats have three contested primaries left on the calendar — and Warren is involved in all of them.
Why Coherent’s CEO believes in giving people room to fail
Jim Anderson says the $60 billion photonics group had to take more risk to meet surging data center demand.
View / It’s time to learn to live with open-source AI
Today’s open-source models from China don’t appear capable of doing much damage yet, but it’s best to prepare.
The German founders bringing a Silicon Valley ethos to America’s Greyhound buses
Flix’s André Schwämmlein and Daniel Krauss say Europeans can’t blame their governments for a shortage of startups with global reach.
Economists predict minor disruption from Trump’s new tariffs
Washington’s tariff announcements have tended to be “more dramatic than their eventual implementation,” an analyst noted.
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Politics
Russia’s war narrative falters
Russia is suffering from “narrative collapse” in its war against Ukraine, a journalist said, as Kyiv turns the tide in the conflict — on the front lines and in American right-wing media.
Eduardo Munoz/Reuters
Suspect in Berlin Pride attack killed after manhunt
The deadly attack on a Pride celebration in Berlin inflamed Europe’s fraught debate over migration and extremism.
Christian Mang/Reuters
Democrats recommend South Carolina to host first 2028 primary
The Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee recommended keeping the state at the front of their primary calendar.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Warren steps up her campaign surrogate travel
Senate Democrats have three contested primaries left on the calendar — and Warren is involved in all of them.
Elder care costs threaten wealth transfer
Economists predicted up to $84 trillion in assets could change hands over 20 years as boomers die and pass on their wealth.
Mayors in Mexico targeted in drug-related violence
Another mayor was fatally shot this week, becoming the 14th city leader killed nationwide since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in 2024.
US lawmakers propose AI ‘kill switch’ bill
The bipartisan legislation would require companies to maintain the ability to shut down their models at short notice.
Polymarket parent company got Paycheck Protection Program loan
The previously unreported $39,727 loan was approved in June 2020.
Manchin launches council to elect independents
“We’re trying to build a true independent network,” the former senator told Semafor.
Loomer becomes Ukraine’s MAGA ally
The far-right activist’s rapid turn against Russia has come as a pleasant surprise to Europe and Ukraine’s backers.
DSCC shuns Democratic candidate in Montana
Alani Bankhead, the Democratic nominee in Montana’s Senate race, bashed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this week for its “absolute lack of support.”
Business
Brown-Forman rejects Sazerac approach
The closely held liquor giant has been the subject of multiple takeover efforts in recent months.
“Sazerac Rye Whisky” by Dwstultz via Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
US bond yields face pressure
The quantity of US government debt is already sky-high — $31 trillion, compared to $4.5 trillion in 2007 — equivalent to more than 100% of GDP.
How Bruce Van Saun united Citizens against America’s biggest banks
The superregional lender’s CEO has made a virtue of its place in “the middle of the river.”
The German founders bringing a Silicon Valley ethos to America’s Greyhound buses
Flix’s André Schwämmlein and Daniel Krauss say Europeans can’t blame their governments for a shortage of startups with global reach.
Why Coherent’s CEO believes in giving people room to fail
Jim Anderson says the $60 billion photonics group had to take more risk to meet surging data center demand.
Technology
Tech leaders back open-source AI
A wave of US tech executives, led by Nvidia’s CEO, rushed to back the development of open-source AI models as divides in the industry widen.
Manami Yamada/Reuters
AI fuels a social media marketing scam
In what appears to be a new dropshipping scam flooding Instagram and TikTok, accounts are posting AI-generated videos depicting teens getting bullied for trying to sell Christian apparel alongside links to buy the goods.
Instagram
OpenAI’s Brockman says distillation is a technical problem
Brockman said OpenAI has systems in place to prevent distillation.
It’s time to learn to live with open-source AI
Today’s open-source models from China don’t appear capable of doing much damage yet, but it’s best to prepare.
Internal videos show how Polymarket trained creators on fake bets
A training presentation reveals how the company made a ‘fakecharts’ platform for influencers.
US lawmakers propose AI ‘kill switch’ bill
The bipartisan legislation would require companies to maintain the ability to shut down their models at short notice.
Energy
Oil spikes, stocks fall on Iran and AI fears
Oil hit $100 a barrel and Magnificent 7 stocks shed nearly $800 billion in market value on Thursday, as pessimism over steep AI spending and the Iran war dragged down global markets.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Energy is the exposed flank in Europe’s rearmament
Europe needs to start treating energy like the defense investment it really is.
Tom Nicholson/Reuters
Ukraine appears to change tactics in Russia attacks
Kyiv is letting up on its strikes on Russian oil refineries — easing Moscow’s fuel crunch and pushing gas prices back down — and is instead hitting ships.
Social Media via Reuters
Gulf
Lull in Iran conflict tests Trump
A second straight day without US-Iran strikes shifted attention from the battlefield to the White House, where President Donald Trump faces an increasingly narrow set of options.
Evan Vucci/Reuters
Iran war costs squeeze Gulf’s protein boom
Gulf consumers have long embraced the global protein craze, but the conflict is squeezing the margins of food companies seeking to profit from the trend.
Investors pick their Gulf bank winners
Emirates NBD and First Abu Dhabi Bank are both since January, outpacing every major index in the Gulf, while Qatar National Bank is down more than 10%.
Trump pegs Saudi nuclear deal to Israel talks
The US president’s stipulation threatens to stymie the newly signed agreement, which allows Saudi Arabia to build nuclear power plants with US technology.
DP World plans two ports in booming Fujairah
Fujairah, which sits to the east of the Strait of Hormuz, has become an increasingly critical bypass route as ships look for ways to skirt the waterway.
China
Chinese whizzes win global math prize
Chinese nationals were awarded the prestigious Fields Medal for the first time, in the latest sign of the country’s growing academic prowess.
Simons Foundation
US tech firms debate curbs on Chinese AI
For some execs, the rise of open-source AI from China marks a “dystopian hellscape,” while others are complimenting the “excellent” models.
Manami Yamada/Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
US says China’s Moonshot stole from Anthropic
The US accused the Chinese AI startup of exploiting American tech to create its Kimi K3 model, threatening sanctions in response to what Washington described as “industrial-scale” theft of intellectual property.
Moonshot AI founder Yang Zhilin. Tingshu Wang/Reuters
Africa
S. Africa court pauses Ramaphosa impeachment probe
The order pauses what threatened to be a damaging political spectacle over the theft of $580,000 in cash from Ramaphosa’s Phala Phala private game farm.
Adriano Machado/Reuters
South Africa holds interest rates despite inflation
The decision triggered a market sell-off, sending the rand down more than 2% while benchmark bond yields rose.
Siphiwe Sibeko/Reuters
Ghana’s illegal gold mining poses security risk
A new analysis warned that the black market sector risked opening the country up to terrorist activity.
US steps up Eritrea, Somalia talks over Red Sea access
A widening campaign of attacks on shipping in the Red Sea is forcing Washington to pay renewed attention to the African side of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Africa looks to bonds to support wider mining benefits
Countries across Africa are hoping to capture a greater share of value-added profits, especially from extractive industries.
Chinese firms invest $900 million into new Angolan port
Luanda is seeking to develop its free trade zone, part of its efforts to diversify its oil-dominant economy.
Security
Russia’s war narrative falters
Russia is suffering from “narrative collapse” in its war against Ukraine, a journalist said, as Kyiv turns the tide in the conflict — on the front lines and in American right-wing media.
Eduardo Munoz/Reuters
Iran and Ukraine wars merge in the Caspian Sea
The Ukraine and Iran wars collided over the weekend, as Kyiv attacked an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea.
The foreign ministers of Iran and Russia on July 24. Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters
Ukraine appears to change tactics in Russia attacks
Kyiv is letting up on its strikes on Russian oil refineries — easing Moscow’s fuel crunch and pushing gas prices back down — and is instead hitting ships.
Social Media via Reuters
Media
Senate Democrat’s new bills would restrict AI-powered ads and paid influencers
California Sen. Adam Schiff plans to introduce two new bills that would attempt to illuminate who is paying influencers for political speech online and restrict AI-generated likenesses of politicians.
Evan Vucci/Reuters
Former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy on loneliness and why he’s more worried about your phone than your body
Former US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy joins Mixed Signals to make the case that America’s loneliness crisis is a public health emergency.
Steve Hilton on the Murdochs, David Ellison, and conservative media’s California
Steve Hilton has lived many lives: a key strategist to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, a populist Fox News host, and — after renouncing his UK citizenship — the Republican nominee in California’s gubernatorial race.
Katie Nolan on the sports gambling takeover, covering politics, and the slow return of the boys’ club
Sports media host and “Casuals” podcast creator Katie Nolan joined Mixed Signals live at Cannes to talk about navigating two decades of upheaval in sports media.
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman on LLMs, fighting the bots, and why it’s good that you can’t get famous on Reddit
Reddit co-founder and CEO Steve Huffman joins Mixed Signals during the platform’s 21st birthday to talk about what it means to be the internet’s anti-social media hub.
CEO Signal
How Bruce Van Saun united Citizens against America’s biggest banks
The superregional lender’s CEO has made a virtue of its place in “the middle of the river.”
Courtesy of Citizens Financial Group/Jake Angelo/Semafor
The German founders bringing a Silicon Valley ethos to America’s Greyhound buses
Flix’s André Schwämmlein and Daniel Krauss say Europeans can’t blame their governments for a shortage of startups with global reach.
Courtesy of Flix/Graph Massara/Semafor
Why Coherent’s CEO believes in giving people room to fail
Jim Anderson says the $60 billion photonics group had to take more risk to meet surging data center demand.
Courtesy of Coherent/Jake Angelo/Semafor
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