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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 7:57am EST
1
Iran struck American embassies and military bases in the Gulf, leading Donald Trump to vow a response.
2Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the US could ramp up its assault on Iran.
3The US war on Iran was long-planned, The New York Times reported, with Donald Trump buoyed by his administration’s raid on Venezuela.
4German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets with Donald Trump in Washington today, with talks likely to focus on the war with Iran.
5Global commodity prices surged, including for oil, gas, and metals, amid the fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran.
6The US imposed sanctions on Rwanda’s military, accusing it of violating a Washington-brokered ceasefire in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
What to watch for on a huge primary day
At least half a dozen members of Congress are at risk of losing their seats in Tuesday’s primaries.
Kaylee Greenlee/Reuters Senate strikes deal on Trump’s housing idea
Congress is moving forward with a proposal to shut institutional investors out of housing despite the sustained skepticism of some free-market Republicans.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Trump says no fixed timeline for US campaign in Iran
The US president signaled that the expanding Middle East conflict could last weeks.
Ken Cedeno/ReutersMiddle East thrust into war as Iran leader killed in US, Israel attack
Tehran retaliated by striking Israel and US Gulf allies, rattling nations whose economic booms require security and stability.
Airbus DS 2026/Handout via ReutersDemocrats prepare war powers votes on Iran
They know, however, that their efforts will fall short of the margin needed to overcome a presidential veto.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters Some Republicans back Trump on nationalization of voting
“If he has the power to make sure that people have to be citizens to be registered to vote, show ID to vote, he ought to do it,” Florida Sen. Rick Scott told Semafor. ”
Nathan Howard/Reuters As homeland security shutdown drags on, Thune pivots
The majority leader reasons that the Senate can flip back quickly to Department of Homeland Security funding if there’s a deal.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters AD
Politics
Al Drago/ReutersKaylee Greenlee/Reuters Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Trump hosts German Chancellor Merz in Washington
Merz said Germany stood behind the US war on Iran, while adding that Berlin had no desire to participate.
Al Drago/ReutersWhat to watch for on a huge primary day
At least half a dozen members of Congress are at risk of losing their seats in Tuesday’s primaries.
Kaylee Greenlee/Reuters Senate strikes deal on Trump’s housing idea
Congress is moving forward with a proposal to shut institutional investors out of housing despite the sustained skepticism of some free-market Republicans.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Trump officials face Iran questions
Tuesday is the first opportunity for many lawmakers to grill the administration on its war aims.
Why Republicans won’t rein in Trump’s Iran war
“It would not be in our best interest at all to stop what’s already started,” one told Semafor.
As homeland security shutdown drags on, Thune pivots
The majority leader reasons that the Senate can flip back quickly to Department of Homeland Security funding if there’s a deal.
Texas’ Democratic Senate primary now a personality war
Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico tell more or less the same story about where their party went wrong. Their battle is more about themselves.
Some Republicans back Trump on nationalization of voting
“If he has the power to make sure that people have to be citizens to be registered to vote, show ID to vote, he ought to do it,” Florida Sen. Rick Scott told Semafor. ”
Democrats prepare war powers votes on Iran
They know, however, that their efforts will fall short of the margin needed to overcome a presidential veto.
The Gulf next door
The drones and missiles that got through the UAE’s defenses consummated what had always been a lingering sense of vulnerability.
Iran strikes show how Trump’s foreign policy bucks norms on war
The audacious mission to take out Iran’s leader underscored President Donald Trump’s brand of foreign policy, defined by unpredictability and a willingness to disregard longstanding norms, analysts said.
Business
Uber’s $1 trillion plan for the post-driver world
“All of the jobs other than the driving have to be done,” Dara Khosrowshahi tells Semafor’s “Compound Interest” podcast. Fleet management is a “trillion-dollar opportunity.”
Global commodity prices surge as Iran fallout widens
The benchmark international oil price rose 4%, reaching its highest level in more than a year, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt.
The LBO debt market is freaking out. Here comes a $20 billion test of nerves.
JPMorgan bankers will pitch investors on $20 billion of debt backing the mega-buyout of EA Sports in Miami this week, a big ask for a market rattled by AI wipeout fears.
Chinese car price war starts to pick back up
China’s carmakers are reigniting a fraught price war in a bid to reverse a slump in sales.
US Soccer’s goal for the 2026 World Cup
CEO JT Batson says the tournament is forcing brands to see the value of the sport’s fans.
Technology
Denis Balibouse/Reuters
Al Drago/File Photo/Reuters
CERN scientists use AI to reevaluate physics theories
Many of the theories physicists rely on are incomplete, and until a flaw is found which can reveal new physics, the field is somewhat stuck.
Denis Balibouse/ReutersAnthropic says yet to hear about US government blacklisting
A row with the US government began after Anthropic refused to allow defense officials to use its technology in certain situations.
Al Drago/File Photo/ReutersDownloads of Anthropic’s Claude surge after Pentagon spat
Anthropic had refused to give the US military unfettered access to its technology.
Hours after Pentagon bans Anthropic, OpenAI strikes defense deal
Hegseth’s harsh punishment is the culmination of a long, slow slide that began with a political disagreement.
New AI-generated videos push boundaries
One video was a mock commercial for a gym where humans who lost their jobs to AI instead power it by exercising at “Energym,” run by aged versions of Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Jeff Bezos.
Perplexity’s ‘Computer’ wasn’t always planned
After Perplexity spent six months building its browser product Comet, it made Computer in two months.
Energy
Mike Blake/File Photo/Reuters
Manon Cruz/File Photo/Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
US renewables hit record high despite Trump pushback
More than a quarter of US electricity came from renewable sources in 2025, up from 10% the prior year, the EIA found.
Mike Blake/File Photo/ReutersRussia could gain from surge in global oil prices
Western governments may be less inclined to enforce existing sanctions or apply new ones in a highly-constrained energy market.
Manon Cruz/File Photo/ReutersInsurance rates for tankers passing through Hormuz could double
Many insurers are cancelling pre-existing war risk policies and looking to renegotiate at higher prices, a leading broker told Semafor.
Stringer/ReutersGulf
A burning aircraft falls from the sky in Kuwait. Social media via Reuters.
Gulf crisis prompts viral videos and scams
Videos of American pilots talking to Kuwaiti citizens have gone viral online.
A burning aircraft falls from the sky in Kuwait. Social media via Reuters.UAE, Saudi leaders attempt to maintain appearance of daily life amid Iran strikes
UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan was seen walking through Dubai Mall.
Gulf officials insist weapons systems are well stocked amid questions
While there are no details about depletion rates, there appears to be a discrepancy between offense and defense capabilities among US allies.
US urges citizens to leave Gulf over ‘serious safety risks’
The travel advisory was published around the same time that the US embassy in Riyadh was hit by two Iranian drones.
US’ Iran campaign faces dwindling munitions stockpiles
An extended US military campaign in Iran could be constrained by a munitions shortage.
Africa
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
A petrol tanker leaves the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters.
US sanctions Rwanda’s top army officers over DR Congo conflict
The penalties caused tensions to flare between both countries.
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersAfrica braces for Middle East conflict fallout on fuel
A jump in oil prices offered short-term fiscal relief for African crude producers while raising inflation risks for the continent’s fuel importers.
A petrol tanker leaves the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters.Africa could find itself in ‘middle’ of Iran war
North and East African states are exposed to risks from primary and proxy actors in the Gulf, analysts said.
Mining giant Rio Tinto to restart major South Africa minerals project
The project was halted for six years because of violent unrest including protests and extortion attempts.
The drone-making startup with big dreams of securing Nigeria
Terra Industries raised $34 million in January across two funding rounds amid heightened US interest in Nigeria’s security crisis.
China’s media push in Africa has largely failed, analysts say
Beijing had rolled out a multi-billion-dollar, decades-long campaign to expand Chinese media’s presence in Africa.
Security
Smoke rises in Abu Dhabi. Abdelhadi Ramahi/Reuters
The aftermath of a strike on Iran. Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
US Navy/Handout via Reuters
Iran strikes US embassies, military bases in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain
US President Donald Trump vowed a response “soon,” after his country’s embassy in Riyadh was hit by a drone attack.
Smoke rises in Abu Dhabi. Abdelhadi Ramahi/ReutersWhite House warns US likely to ramp up assault on Iran
US President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State both indicated that there is no immediate end in sight for the sudden conflict with Iran.
The aftermath of a strike on Iran. Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersUS’ Iran campaign faces dwindling munitions stockpiles
An extended US military campaign in Iran could be constrained by a munitions shortage.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersMedia
Leigh Vogel/Getty Images for Uber, X and The Free Press and Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
A new CBS News emerges amid Iran crisis
The joint Israeli and American attacks on Iran were the first major test of the new CBS News right-leaning and pro-Israel editorial leadership.
Leigh Vogel/Getty Images for Uber, X and The Free Press and Shannon Stapleton/Reuters Netflix walks away from $83B Warner Bros. takeover
Paramount’s David Ellison gets the media property he has long wanted. Netflix, having swung and missed at its first big M&A deal, now has to reassure investors that its business is fine.
BBC News CEO who resigned over edit of Trump speech rejects charge of ‘institutional bias’
In her first interview since she left the BBC, Deborah Turness said at Semafor’s Restoring Trust in Media summit that it was her choice to resign.
FCC Chair Brendan Carr praises Bari Weiss’ CBS
“I think they’re doing a great job,” Carr said at Semafor’s Restoring Trust in Media event Wednesday.
Washington Post editor recounts layoff pain, pledges to take paper to profitability
“Great journalism is central, but the journalism alone isn’t enough.”
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Pearson/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Affirm/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
US Soccer’s goal for the 2026 World Cup
CEO JT Batson says the tournament is forcing brands to see the value of the sport’s fans.
Pearson’s pitch for company bosses to become AI chief education officers
CEO Omar Abbosh says a new approach to skills is needed for companies to get the most from humans and technology.
Courtesy of Pearson/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAffirm’s Max Levchin on how market sci-fi stories line up with AI reality
The PayPal co-founder values speculative visions of the future, even if investors overreacted to them this week.
Courtesy of Affirm/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD