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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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Energy
Depleted stockpiles stoke global oil supply anxiety
Energy markets had some slack to absorb the first shock, but renewed fighting jeopardizes oil shipments.
Democrats wage a new campaign culture war with the alpha left
The old divisions reopened between the party’s establishment and its swaggering young progressives won’t heal easily, despite Graham Platner’s exit.
Democrats wage a new campaign culture war with the alpha left
The old divisions reopened between the party’s establishment and its swaggering young progressives won’t heal easily, despite Graham Platner’s exit.
View / How Obama fits into Democratic centrists’ comeback plot
View / Washington confronts China’s stolen goods
The World at a Glance
Updated 7:00pm EDT
1
The renewed fighting between the US and Iran again jeopardizes global oil supplies, after stockpiles were drained earlier in the conflict.
2Europe remains reliant on China and the US for critical military components even as it projects confidence in shouldering its own defense.
3The rise of Chinese open-source AI poses an economic threat to the US, a Palantir exec said, as warnings about Beijing’s AI clout get louder.
4Chinese chip giant CXMT is poised to go public in Asia’s largest market debut of the year, as it benefits from intense demand for memory.
5China reported its slowest quarterly growth since late 2022, weighed down by lackluster domestic demand and the Iran war.
6ASML raised its full-year sales outlook, riding an AI-driven wave of demand for its chip manufacturing equipment.
Ukraine locks in on Crimea strategy
In targeting Crimea, Kyiv is trying to demonstrate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failure to defend the peninsula.
US grapples with rise of Chinese open-source AI
Palantir’s chief technology officer said the Chinese technology poses an economic threat to the US.
ASML raises forecasts as AI boom boosts sales
The Dutch technology giant expects an AI-driven boom in demand for its chipmaking machines to continue after Q2 sales jumped.
‘Nobody told me how dangerous it is’: How Trump sees threats to his life
As fresh risks from Iran make headlines, those closest to the president told Semafor that, in private, he aims for fatalistic humor.
China reports lowest quarterly growth in more than three years
The world second-biggest economy expanded 4.3% in Q2, as the Iran war, lackluster domestic demand, and a lingering real estate slump weighed on growth.
Stripe and Advent bid $53B for PayPal
PayPal was valued at $360 billion in 2021, but that has now fallen to just $36 billion due to competition from Apple Pay and other rivals.
Trump threatens to bomb Iran’s civilian infrastructure
A month-long ceasefire has effectively collapsed, with the US and Iran exchanging fire for four consecutive days.
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Politics
Collins says Democrats want ICE reforms they rejected
Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills wrote to the state’s congressional delegation today, pushing for ICE “to be fundamentally reformed.”
Evan Vucci/Reuters
Trump turns to commercial diplomacy in Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s warm welcome from Trump buoyed by billions in expected deal announcements
Evan Vucci/Reuters
How Obama fits into Democratic centrists’ comeback plot
Recent campaigns have revealed how hard it is for the Democrats to fight an insurgency without a clear leader.
Andrew Roth/ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters
Democrats wage a new campaign culture war with the alpha left
The old divisions reopened between the party’s establishment and its swaggering young progressives won’t heal easily, despite Graham Platner’s exit.
Baltimore Sun owner threatens to sue Moore over Epstein comments
The Maryland governor tried to tie Sinclair chairman David Smith to the disgraced financier.
White House not ruling out action on open-source AI models
The administration has an interest in boosting the US’ nascent open-source industry, which is increasingly concerned about losing ground to China.
Blanche’s mission: Convince the Senate’s free agents
Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Thom Tillis, R-N.C., will have some hard questions for the acting attorney general.
Daylight saving bill hits wall in Senate
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso said the daylight saving time measure would not be able to pass by unanimous consent.
‘Nobody told me how dangerous it is’: How Trump sees threats to his life
As fresh risks from Iran make headlines, those closest to the president told Semafor that, in private, he aims for fatalistic humor.
Parasitic infection outbreak exposes deep cracks in public health
A sprawling cyclospora outbreak spotlights deeper issues in America’s public health system.
Fed Chair Warsh condemns inflation while dodging on hikes
In his first hearing since starting the job, the Federal Reserve chair promised lawmakers he would “deliver price stability” but took pains to avoid specifying what that means for rates.
Business
Stripe and Advent bid $53B for PayPal
PayPal was valued at $360 billion in 2021, but that has now fallen to just $36 billion due to competition from Apple Pay and other rivals.
Fabrizio Bensch/File Photo/Reuters
NY enacts data center moratorium
The move signals growing mainstream political pushback to unchecked AI growth in the US.
DeepSeek reportedly weighs IPO amid zeal for Chinese low-cost tech
The AI powerhouse is also said to be considering raising new funds, weeks after completing its first financing round.
Fed Chair Warsh condemns inflation while dodging on hikes
In his first hearing since starting the job, the Federal Reserve chair promised lawmakers he would “deliver price stability” but took pains to avoid specifying what that means for rates.
AI is the business-model shock law firms need
AI is a swift kick in the business model.
Technology
US grapples with rise of Chinese open-source AI
Palantir’s chief technology officer said the Chinese technology poses an economic threat to the US.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Washington confronts China’s open-source models
American AI labs view Chinese open-source models as essentially stolen goods, built with the help of American frontier models to generate synthetic training data — a process known as distillation.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
DeepSeek weighs IPO as Zhipu embraces AGI
The startup is also said to be considering raising new funds from private investors weeks after completing its first financing round that valued the company at $52 billion.
DeepMind’s Hassabis emerges as unifying voice for the AI industry
On Tuesday, Google’s DeepMind co-founder and CEO Demis Hassabis stepped forth as a generally unassailable messenger with an article calling for a self-regulatory body of AI experts.
Dating apps add friction back into romance
Tech’s ambition is to work so well that it fades into the background of our day-to-day, but removing friction in some of the most personal aspects of life may not actually improve an experience.
Stripe and Advent bid $53B for PayPal
PayPal was valued at $360 billion in 2021, but that has now fallen to just $36 billion due to competition from Apple Pay and other rivals.
Energy
Depleted stockpiles stoke global oil supply anxiety
Energy markets had some slack to absorb the first shock, but renewed fighting jeopardizes oil shipments.
Kim Soo-hyeon/Reuters
Asian buyers cool on Gulf LNG
Around 83% of the Gulf’s LNG exports head to Asia, but the Iran war is changing dynamics, prompting importers to cut demand, switch to other suppliers, or turn to other fuels.
QatarEnergy’s liquefied natural gas production facilities. Stringer/Reuters.
OPEC trims oil demand forecast
The producer group cut its growth forecast for world oil demand this year by 20% — its third straight downward revision.
Maxim Shemetov/File Photo/Reuters
Gulf
Depleted stockpiles stoke global oil supply anxiety
Energy markets had some slack to absorb the first shock, but renewed fighting jeopardizes oil shipments.
Kim Soo-hyeon/Reuters
Trump turns to commercial diplomacy in Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s warm welcome from Trump buoyed by billions in expected deal announcements
Abu Dhabi’s oysters outnumber expectation
A three-year effort to map the oyster population in Abu Dhabi’s waters yielded more than expected, according to the emirate’s environmental agency.
Revived Iran conflict dims Gulf’s economic recovery hopes
The collapse of the interim peace deal between the US and Iran is delaying recovery in crucial economic sectors, including aviation, energy, tourism, and real estate.
Saudi World Cup fans forced to pirate games after BeIN blackout
The host of the 2034 World Cup has blocked access to the Qatar-controlled network that holds regional media rights for this year’s tournament.
China
Chinese chip giant’s growing ambitions
Chinese chip giant CXMT is poised to go public in Asia’s largest market debut of the year, as it benefits from intense demand for memory.
Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo/Reuters
US grapples with rise of Chinese open-source AI
Palantir’s chief technology officer said the Chinese technology poses an economic threat to the US.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
China reports lowest quarterly growth in more than three years
The world second-biggest economy expanded 4.3% in Q2, as the Iran war, lackluster domestic demand, and a lingering real estate slump weighed on growth.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
Africa
West African photo project maps climate change solutions
The project uses imagined climate-adapted photos of areas that have already been hard hit by sea-level rise, flooding, and coastal erosion.
Courtesy of Adolphus Opara
Mining developments eroding Africa’s forests, study finds
Nearly 190,000 hectares of forest were converted to mines in Africa between 2001 and 2020, according to researchers at the universities of Cambridge and Sheffield.
Francis Kokoroko/Reuters
Human vaccine trials begin for latest Ebola strain
The trial comes as the virus spread to two new provinces in the DR Congo, fueling fears the fast-moving outbreak is becoming harder to contain.
South Africa plans major fuel stockpile to buffer against energy shocks
Africa’s largest economy once refined its own fuel, but is now wholly dependent on imported petrol, diesel, and jet fuel, leaving it vulnerable to major disruptions.
Dangote refinery eyes pricing products in dollars over naira
The refinery agreed in 2024 to set depot prices in the local currency following a government deal that involved sourcing crude oil domestically.
Trump’s resource diplomacy comes to Libya
Critics say Washington’s proposed power-sharing deal would trade elections for stability while opening the door to US oil companies.
Security
EU defense push meets reality
Europe remains reliant on China and the US for critical military components even as it projects confidence in shouldering its own defense.
Charles Platiau/Reuters
Ukraine locks in on Crimea strategy
In targeting Crimea, Ukraine is trying to demonstrate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failure to defend the peninsula.
Stringer/Reuters
Europe steps up commitments to Kyiv
Ukraine and its European allies on Monday announced a coalition to develop an anti-ballistic missile system to protect against Russian attacks.
Stringer/Reuters
Media
Baltimore Sun owner threatens to sue Moore over Epstein comments
The Maryland governor tried to tie Sinclair chairman David Smith to the disgraced financier.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters
Paramount weighs leaving California over Warner Bros. rift
David Ellison is wary of decamping, but his battle with state regulators is intensifying.
Mamdani squares off with ‘The View’
The New York City mayor’s allies were frustrated by a host’s comments about fellow democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier.
NYT tries to catch up to video-addicted audiences
New York Times Executive Editor Joe Kahn said the paper is pouring resources into visual content, prompting comparisons to the media’s “pivot to video” in the 2010s.
The Daily Wire sells Jeremy’s Razors to media company’s former CEO
The sale represents the further uncoupling of Jeremy Boreing and the conservative media company he co-founded with Ben Shapiro.
CEO Signal
Why Edward Jones thinks AI can defuse a demographic time bomb
Managing partner Penny Pennington wants to capture financial advisers’ insights before they retire.
How Allianz’s CEO prepares for the risk of ‘huge havoc’
Oliver Bäte says Europe can no longer afford all the options its citizens expect.
Courtesy of Allianz/Graph Massara/Semafor
The MSCI boss helping Elon Musk get closer to Mars
Henry Fernandez says the index provider has grown by playing soccer, not singles tennis.
Courtesy of MSCI/Graph Massara/Semafor
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