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View / We’re making assumptions about the economy that could prove disastrously wrong
View / Ceasefire offers respite, but no quick rebound for the Gulf
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:39pm EDT
1
Israel and Lebanon plan to hold direct talks in Washington next week, as Israel’s campaign in Lebanon threatens to derail the US-Iran ceasefire.
2The UK’s top diplomat rejected Iran’s toll plan for the Strait of Hormuz, characterizing the effort as a “hijacking” of the crucial transit route.
3OpenAI is pausing its UK data center project, citing high energy costs and regulatory conditions.
4Amazon’s CEO dismissed concerns over the tech giant’s steep AI spending, saying, ‘We are not going to be conservative.’
5China’s microdrama industry is booming thanks to AI, with the industry lunching roughly 470 new titles daily in January alone.
6More American Gen Zers are using AI, but they’re also growing more uneasy about it, new data showed.
A Trump deal with Iran would likely get a vote in Congress
Democrats believe the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act would apply to an agreement that touches on Iran’s nuclear program.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters Ex-diplomat says war has permanently harmed Qatar-Iran ties
“Attacking civilian infrastructure, under the guise of ‘we’re attacking the Americans,’ is something that Qatar views as a just bold-faced lie.”
Donald Trump shakes hands with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Iran truce already in doubt
Iran targeted a Saudi oil pipeline hours after the truce took effect and accused the US of violating the agreement.
Aftermath of an Israeli strike in Beirut. Yara Nardi/ReutersTrump administration expected to keep waiving Russian oil sanctions as Iran call looms
Doing so would reinforce a second-term shift in how economic pressure gets applied.
Norlys Perez/ReutersDemocrats pressure Pentagon over new media restrictions
Democratic lawmakers are pressing the Pentagon and leaders at Stars and Stripes to share whether the department is censoring stories at the historic military newspaper.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueDemocrats to force Iran vote next week
On Thursday morning, House Democrats will try to unanimously constrain the president’s war powers, a move Republicans will almost certainly block.
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersIran, US agree to two-week ceasefire
The countries are to hold talks this week on cementing the truce, even though permanent peace appears elusive.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/ReutersAD
Politics
Ayal Margolin/Reuters
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersDonald Trump shakes hands with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Israel, Lebanon to hold direct talks
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue striking Lebanon in the meantime.
Ayal Margolin/ReutersRepublicans fight among themselves over their long pre-election to-do list
President Donald Trump’s party has a dizzying number of goals and can’t agree on how to get started.
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersEx-diplomat says war has permanently harmed Qatar-Iran ties
“Attacking civilian infrastructure, under the guise of ‘we’re attacking the Americans,’ is something that Qatar views as a just bold-faced lie.”
Donald Trump shakes hands with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters A Trump deal with Iran would likely get a vote in Congress
Democrats believe the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act would apply to an agreement that touches on Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran truce already in doubt
Iran targeted a Saudi oil pipeline hours after the truce took effect and accused the US of violating the agreement.
Trump administration expected to keep waiving Russian oil sanctions as Iran call looms
Doing so would reinforce a second-term shift in how economic pressure gets applied.
Democrats to force Iran vote next week
On Thursday morning, House Democrats will try to unanimously constrain the president’s war powers, a move Republicans will almost certainly block.
As Republicans embrace AI in campaigning, Democrats bet on a backlash
Republicans are very comfortable using AI for almost anything in politics, and they’ll say so.
What Sharpton wants to hear from 2028’s Democratic contenders
The civil rights advocate talked to Semafor about what he plans to press for when he sits down with nine potential presidential hopefuls this week.
Fewer in US, Canada see good job opportunities, report finds
Just 47% of people living in the US and Canada say it’s a good time to find a job in their city or area.
Trump agrees to suspend Iran attacks for two weeks
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, subject to Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Business
Megan Jelinger/Reuters
We’re making assumptions about the economy that could prove disastrously wrong
Previously uninvestable sectors are becoming attractive because of underlying technological shifts, and the gloomier inverse is also true.
Megan Jelinger/ReutersSpaceX bankers game plan to blunt post-IPO selling tsunami
Elon Musk’s bankers are considering deal tweaks that will ease more than $1 trillion in shares onto the market after what’s expected to be a record-shattering IPO.
Anthropic says Mythos model too powerful for release
Mythos exposed thousands of software vulnerabilities in common applications for which no fix exists, the company said.
US stocks rally in familiar pattern
US stocks soared Wednesday on investors’ relief over a tenuous Iran ceasefire.
Indian business delegation visits China in sign of bilateral thaw
The trip last week focused on EV charging and battery storage.
Technology
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Brendan McDermid/File Photo/Reuters
American Gen Zers are growing more uneasy about AI
More American Gen Zers are using AI, but they’re also growing more uneasy about it, new data showed.
Brendan McDermid/ReutersAmazon defends high AI spending
US tech giants are doubling down on massive AI spending despite lingering concerns of a bubble and energy shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict.
Brendan McDermid/File Photo/ReutersOpenAI pauses UK Stargate project
OpenAI is pausing its UK data center project, citing high energy costs and regulatory conditions.
Greece plans to ban social media for kids
The prime minister cited rising anxiety and sleep problems as reasons for the under-15 ban.
Anthropic says Mythos model too powerful for release
Mythos exposed thousands of software vulnerabilities in common applications for which no fix exists, the company said.
The US Army is developing its own chatbot
The US Army is building its own chatbot for soldiers, the latest sign of the Pentagon’s embrace of AI.
Energy
Eli Hartman/File Photo/Reuters
Simon Johnson/Reuters
Fayaz Aziz/Reuters
Oil prices remain high despite Iran ceasefire
Prices are still hovering just below $100 per barrel, but there’s a long road ahead even if the war concludes.
Eli Hartman/File Photo/ReutersIran war strengthens case for green hydrogen
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted interest in green hydrogen, as fossil fuel prices soar.
Simon Johnson/ReutersParis Agreement target off the table, report says
Rising electricity demand and strong oil markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are making it harder for emissions to decrease.
Fayaz Aziz/ReutersGulf
Benoit Tessier/Reuters
UK rejects Iran’s Hormuz toll plan
The UK’s top diplomat on Thursday rejected Iran’s toll plan for the Strait of Hormuz, characterizing the effort as a “hijacking” of the crucial transit route.
Benoit Tessier/ReutersAbu Dhabi’s Mubadala soars after dealmaking spree
The sovereign fund’s investment activities rose in 2025 to the highest level in at least eight years.
Ceasefire offers respite, but no quick rebound for the Gulf
Gulf interests were largely ignored in the truce, as Iran continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
A Saudi oil magazine is publishing some of the best writing about the Islamic world
Aramco has been contributing some of the most unexpected stories about the Islamic world, says the Paris Review.
Gulf sovereigns quadruple private credit portfolios
Exposure to private credit jumped since 2021, but the sector’s health now looks uncertain.
Africa
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
A woman participates in this year’s Lagos Fanti Carnival parade. Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters.
Africa begins to feel economic pain of Iran war
The World Bank has cut its 2026 estimate for growth in sub-Saharan Africa by 0.3 percentage points.
Sodiq Adelakun/ReutersLagos celebrates Afro-Brazilian legacy through carnival
Many formerly enslaved Africans who migrated back to Nigeria settled in Lagos, bringing new traditions to the city.
A woman participates in this year’s Lagos Fanti Carnival parade. Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters.Ghana hands major gold mine to local operator
The move will be placing a major industrial asset in domestic hands for the first time in the country’s modern mining industry.
Zambia-Lobito rail link to cost up to $5 billion
Construction of the railway to connect Zambia’s copper mines with the Lobito port in Angola is set to begin this year, according to a new report.
Afreximbank unveils $10B support plan for Africa to ease Iran war impact
The move was announced hours before the US and Iran agreed a two-week ceasefire conditioned on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Dangote refinery increases exports amid Iran war supply shocks
Efforts to shore up fuel availability come as other African countries build up their refining capacity to safeguard against future disruptions.
Security
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
HMS Prince of Wales. UK MOD Crown/May Luke/Handout via Reuters.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Israel’s Netanyahu says Iran ceasefire is not ‘end of the war’
Israel believes its war aims are incomplete, potentially setting the stage for further hostilities amid a shaky truce with Iran.
Ronen Zvulun/ReutersUK Navy deploys anti-drone weapons amid global scramble
The DragonFire system can target 400 mph drones and comes five years ahead of schedule.
HMS Prince of Wales. UK MOD Crown/May Luke/Handout via Reuters.US targets pillars of Iran economy
Widespread attacks on Tuesday hit Iran’s railroads, bridges, and its energy hub.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersMediaUS Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
Democrats pressure Pentagon over new media restrictions
Democratic lawmakers are pressing the Pentagon and leaders at Stars and Stripes to share whether the department is censoring stories at the historic military newspaper.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. REUTERS/Kevin LamarqueMaryland’s biggest newspaper is going after the governor’s 2028 campaign
The owner of Maryland’s biggest paper and TV stations is keeping close tabs on his outlet’s investigation of Gov. Wes Moore.
Joanna Stern on how AI told her to quit The Wall Street Journal
“It felt like the one big decision where I actually did trust AI,” she told Semafor’s “Mixed Signals” podcast.
Biden vet launches biweekly streaming show
Rob Flaherty and Jesse Lehrich will launch Nobody Knows Anything, a 90-minute biweekly show, later this month.
Axel Springer’s Döpfner courts UK conservative elites
The German mogul is courting regulators and the country’s influential conservative political figures as he attempts to get his bid to buy the Telegraph approved.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Okta/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of JLL/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Emma Walmsley on leading and leaving GSK
What does it take to hand over a company after years at the helm?
Courtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforThe three questions a CEO should ask about their AI agents
Okta’s Todd McKinnon sees a digital workforce creating new vulnerabilities.
Courtesy of Okta/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforWhy JLL is betting its biggest clients will drive growth in ‘crazy’ times
Christian Ulbrich says companies succeed by reducing complexity for their clients.
Courtesy of JLL/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD