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View / Past oil shocks may teach us the wrong lesson about the Iran war
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The World at a Glance
Updated 8:48am EDT
1
Chile’s new leader, conservative firebrand José Antonio Kast, took office, as South America sees a swing to the right.
2Asian nations are raising their defense spending as concerns rise over China and trust erodes with the US.
3US President JD Vance has faced criticism from Republican allies over his silence on the war in Iran.
4Aid groups warned that Lebanon could soon face a humanitarian disaster after Israeli strikes killed 600 people and displaced 700,000.
5The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send food prices skyrocketing, a UN report warned.
6Pressure in the Strait of Hormuz ramped up, after the US destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the trade route.
US and Saudi firms team up for Africa minerals deals
Cove Capital and Saudi family conglomerate aim to raise multi billion dollar fund to acquire African mining operations.
Nqobile Dludla/ReutersRepublican spending rises in Kentucky Senate race
A group supporting Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., is dropping more money to attack businessman Nate Morris in the Republican Senate primary.
Screenshot/Keep America Great PAC/YouTube‘A lack of consistency’: Trump administration navigates war-related domestic threats
Amid two violent incidents this month, there are internal differences of opinion about addressing war-related risks.
Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesMore employees using AI, survey finds
In the fourth quarter of last year, 43% of public-sector employees said they used AI at least a few times annually, according to Gallup polling.
Florence Lo/ReutersMullin set to take over a closed and chaotic Homeland Security
Democrats are still digging in on their immigration enforcement demands, even as airport security lines grow.
Nathan Howard/ReutersG7 leaders agree not to release oil reserves
The price of Brent crude fell back below $90 per barrel on Tuesday, after soaring to nearly $120.
Kim Hong-Ji/ReutersRepublicans pledge scrutiny of Iran school strike
The party wants answers on the bombing of an Iranian school that killed 175 people, which appears to have been caused by a US Tomahawk missile.
Mehr News/Handout via Reuters
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Politics
JD Vance. Anna Rose Layden/ReutersFlorence Lo/Reuters 
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
US Vice President Vance criticized for silence on Iran war
The silence of the US vice president — a staunch anti-interventionist voice — has prompted frustration among allies.
JD Vance. Anna Rose Layden/ReutersMore employees using AI, survey finds
In the fourth quarter of last year, 43% of public-sector employees said they used AI at least a few times annually, according to Gallup polling.
Florence Lo/ReutersWhite House signals safe passage for housing bill
The Senate is on track to pass President Donald Trump’s proposed ban on institutional investors in housing as part of a larger package of measures.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters Republican spending rises in Kentucky Senate race
A group supporting Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., is dropping more money to attack businessman Nate Morris in the Republican Senate primary.
White House seeks to tweak deportation rhetoric
Republicans tacitly acknowledge that the administration’s hardline rhetoric on mass deportation risks alienating voters.
US digs in on Iran campaign
The US defense chief said Tuesday’s strikes on Iran would be the most intense of the war, as President Donald Trump threatened further escalation.
Mullin set to take over a closed and chaotic Homeland Security
Democrats are still digging in on their immigration enforcement demands, even as airport security lines grow.
The State of Happiness in 2026: Wellbeing in the Digital Age | Semafor Events
The 2026 edition of the World Happiness Report, with the latest global happiness rankings powered by data from the Gallup World Poll, examines the striking differences in how young people have fared over time across countries and regions.
‘A lack of consistency’: Trump administration navigates war-related domestic threats
Amid two violent incidents this month, there are internal differences of opinion about addressing war-related risks.
Trump vows to investigate strike on Iranian school that killed 175
Trump originally said the attack was carried out by Iran, but analysts said that was implausible.
DC gets jammed up with gridlock
President Donald Trump says he’ll stop any legislation (except for DHS funding) until he gets his wish of ID and citizenship requirements for voting.
Business
Tingshu Wang/Pool/Reuters
MidEast conflict could hurt Chinese business
Analysts say China may benefit geopolitically from a prolonged Iran war, but it could start to feel the pain economically.
Tingshu Wang/Pool/ReutersIndia eases rules on China investment
India is looking to attract more capital amid fresh global economic uncertainty.
Oil slides further but traders rattled by volatility
Oil continued its slide Tuesday, but the wild price swings triggered by Washington’s Iran war messaging have rattled even the most experienced traders.
Iran war gives CEOs another excuse to tighten their belts: recession fears
Layoffs are coming — not because the economic conditions demand it, but because the economic fears allow it.
Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square files for IPO
This is Ackman’s second attempt at listing Pershing Square, after withdrawing an oversized plan in 2024 that found little market appetite.
Technology
Credit: AT&T
AI agents take off in China
Local governments have rolled out policy measures to support OpenClaw development, even as authorities issue security warnings over the agents.
World marks 150 years since first-ever phone call
That the phone call has survived myriad technological upheavals shows “how profoundly it changed society,” the CTO of AT&T told Semafor.
Credit: AT&TAnthropic sues the Pentagon over supply chain risk designation
The action marks the latest chapter in the feud between the Trump administration and the AI startup.
Payments startup Airwallex expands into US, crosses $1B in assets under management
Airwallex hopes its infrastructure, which took a decade to build, will put it in a good position to capitalize on the AI boom, which is driven by subscriptions and API fees.
Anthropic’s Amodei grows up on the job
Anthropic appeared to have the upper hand — until a leaked memo surfaced Wednesday showing Amodei calling Trump a petty dictator.
AI guardrails more popular than beating China, survey finds
Support for AI guardrails is one of the most bipartisan issues in the US, according to a new survey shared exclusively with Semafor.
Energy
Johanna Geron/File Photo/Reuters
Barbara Lewis/File Photo/Reuters
Lisi Niesner/File Photo/Reuters
Iran war boosts global nuclear energy revival
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has argued that moving away from nuclear power was a “strategic mistake.”
Johanna Geron/File Photo/ReutersMining, metals sector account for 11% of global emissions, report finds
The International Council on Mining and Metals’s new data highlights the sector’s role as both a major emitter and a linchpin of the clean energy transition.
Barbara Lewis/File Photo/ReutersEurope scrambles for gas alternatives amid surging prices
European leaders will meet today to discuss a response to the spike in natural gas prices.
Lisi Niesner/File Photo/ReutersGulf
US Navy ships during a photo exercise in the Arabian Sea in February. US Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jesse Monford/Handout via Reuters.
No quick fixes for Hormuz as Iran mines key shipping route
The prospects for a resumption of Gulf oil exports look distant, absent a major diplomatic or military breakthrough.
US Navy ships during a photo exercise in the Arabian Sea in February. US Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jesse Monford/Handout via Reuters.Trucks have become the Gulf’s logistics stopgap
With the Strait of Hormuz shut, logistics operators in the Gulf are coming up with alternatives to keep trade moving, primarily trucking routes.
US and Saudi firms team up for Africa minerals deals
Cove Capital and Saudi family conglomerate aim to raise multi billion dollar fund to acquire African mining operations.
Past oil shocks may teach us the wrong lesson about the Iran war
The Arab oil embargo of the 1970s was a nightmare scenario. But even falling short of that could be painful for the US and global economy.
MidEast conflict could hurt Chinese business
Analysts say China may benefit geopolitically from a prolonged Iran war, but it could start to feel the pain economically.
Africa
John Sibley/Reuters
Jospin Mwisha/AFP via Getty Images
South Africa’s economic growth undershoots expectations
The growth figures underscored the challenges facing the government in tackling a long list of urgent tasks amid geopolitical shocks.
John Sibley/ReutersChinese mining company blamed for DR Congo health crisis
Residents living near a mine contracted respiratory illnesses following continued exposure to sulfur dioxide gas, a US non-profit found.
Jospin Mwisha/AFP via Getty ImagesGhana introduces new gold royalty system despite opposition
Africa’s top gold producer, like governments across the continent, is trying to capture more value from surging commodity prices.
Middle East airspace closures hurt African airlines
Ethiopian Airlines, the continent’s largest carrier, said it incurred a $137 million loss in a single week.
South Africa’s Ramaphosa bolsters Brazil ties
South Africa’s president courted business leaders in Brazil amid upheaval sparked by US tariffs and the Iran war.
The Iran war risks upending Africa’s Sahel
The junta-led nations around the Sahel — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — are particularly vulnerable to the impact of a global energy crisis.
Security
Indonesian troops. Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/Reuters
The aftermath of a strike on Tehran. Iranian Red Crescent Society/Handout via Reuters.
US Patriot missile defense systems at a base in South Korea. Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters.
Asia boosts defense spending amid concerns over China, US
The Asia-Pacific region was second only to Europe in arms imports between 2021 and 2025, according to new research.
Indonesian troops. Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/ReutersUS destroys Iranian mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran had reportedly begun laying mines in the crucial maritime trade route.
The aftermath of a strike on Tehran. Iranian Red Crescent Society/Handout via Reuters.Ukraine advises US, Gulf on downing Iranian drones
The Patriot missiles used to shoot down Iranian strikes are akin to “using a bazooka to kill a fly,” The New York Times wrote.
US Patriot missile defense systems at a base in South Korea. Kim Hong-Ji/Reuters.Media
Hasan Piker on streaming all day, his relationship with Zohran Mamdani, and the lefty media machine
Since 2018, Hasan Piker has gone from streaming alone in his bedroom to becoming one of North America’s most influential leftist creators.
Bulwark CEO wants to help Democrats ‘Eat’ MAGA
The founder of the Bulwark wants to help chart a path back to power for the Democratic party.
Politico founder plots new Washington newspaper war
A damaged Washington Post could face a big new challenger.
Left-of-center groups plead with AGs to stop WBD-Paramount deal
“With President Trump having weaponized independent agencies and antitrust enforcers to do his political bidding, it is essential that states fill the void and aggressively protect consumers,” the groups wrote.
It’s bots vs. reporters at the AP
The tensions inside the wire service reveal a broader conflict playing out across the media over how AI should be applied within journalism.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Autodesk/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Aflac/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Autodesk’s model for building an AI ‘moat’
CEO Andrew Anagnost says software companies need three defensive qualities.
Courtesy of Autodesk/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAflac’s Dan Amos on succession after 36 years as CEO
The long-tenured leader has a time and a person in mind — and some advice on what the job takes.
Courtesy of Aflac/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor US Soccer’s goal for the 2026 World Cup
CEO JT Batson says the tournament is forcing brands to see the value of the sport’s fans.
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