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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / Oil breached $100. The market still doesn’t believe in $150.
View / How the war in Iran risks upending Africa’s Sahel
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:28pm EDT
1
Oil prices dipped after Donald Trump said the war against Iran was ‘very complete,’ comments he later walked back.
2Some Asian nations are cutting work hours and shuttering universities as they feel the pain of the Iran war’s energy shock.
3The Iran conflict is reviving fears of stagflation as rising oil prices trigger an energy shock and risk blunting growth momentum.
4The energy shock stemming from the Iran conflict will have lasting impacts on markets and global economics, analysts warn.
5Anthropic sued the US Department of Defense after the Pentagon labeled the AI startup a national security threat over disagreements on the tech’s use in warfare.
6US ticketing giant Live Nation reached a tentative settlement with the Department of Justice to avoid a breakup with its controversial platform Ticketmaster.
How one GOP senator blocked a nominee — and ended up with a real opponent
Democrat Scott Colom talked to Semafor about his challenge to Mississippi’s Cindy Hyde-Smith, who blocked his bid to become a federal judge three years ago.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersTrump’s Iran options include special operations raid on nuclear sites
Former government sources and military experts say elite units have long prepared to land in Iran.
Mohamed Azakir/ReutersUS-Iran conflict hands South Africa’s budget new stress test
The budget, delivered days before strikes on Iran began, rested on assumptions that need to be reviewed.
South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivers his 2026 budget speech. Esa Alexander/File Photo/Reuters.Implats drags Zimbabwe’s FX row to Pretoria
Harare has imposed to surrender about one-third of foreign-currency receipts to its central bank to rebuild its foreign currency stock.
Sibanye-Stillwater platinum mine in Marikana, South Africa. Michele Spatari/AFP via Getty Images.EU official casts doubt on Iran regime change
In an interview with Semafor, an EU human rights official expressed grave concerns about the instability of the Middle East amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via ReutersDelay in Trump’s Texas endorsement raises GOP anxiety
Every passing week means more costly spending in the GOP runoff battle between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Joel Angel Juarez/Reuters Why Democrats will wait on Gonzales
Keep an eye on whether Republicans move to boot indicted Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, D-Fla.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters and Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images
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Politics
Benoit Tessier/Reuters
Jennifer Gauthier/Reuters
Jason Reed/Reuters
Oil prices dip under $100 after Trump says Iran war ‘very complete’
Oil prices dipped on Monday after US President Donald Trump said the war against Iran was “very complete.”
Benoit Tessier/ReutersLive Nation settles antitrust case with US DOJ
The outcome had already prompted the ouster of the US’ top antitrust enforcer.
Jennifer Gauthier/ReutersAnthropic sues the Pentagon over supply chain risk designation
The action marks the latest chapter in the feud between the Trump administration and the AI startup.
Jason Reed/ReutersHow one GOP senator blocked a nominee — and ended up with a real opponent
Democrat Scott Colom talked to Semafor about his challenge to Mississippi’s Cindy Hyde-Smith, who blocked his bid to become a federal judge three years ago.
Senate Democrats vow to force Iran war votes if Republicans don’t hold hearings
The group of five, led by New Jersey’s Cory Booker, wants to shine a brighter public spotlight on President Donald Trump’s conflict.
UK PM Starmer attempts to defuse tensions with Trump over Iran
US President Donald Trump recently railed against Britain’s limited involvement in the war on Iran.
Why Democrats will wait on Gonzales
Keep an eye on whether Republicans move to boot indicted Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, D-Fla.
Trump threatens to block his own agenda over voting bill
The president is refusing to sign other bills until Congress passes the GOP’s federalizing ID and citizenship requirement for voting in elections.
Trump set to speak at Republican retreat
Some Republican lawmakers are privately concerned that the escalating conflict in Iran could overshadow the president’s domestic agenda.
Delay in Trump’s Texas endorsement raises GOP anxiety
Every passing week means more costly spending in the GOP runoff battle between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
EU official casts doubt on Iran regime change
In an interview with Semafor, an EU human rights official expressed grave concerns about the instability of the Middle East amid the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Business
Nathan Howard/Reuters
Iran war revives stagflation fears
Rising oil prices are triggering an energy shock and risk blunting growth momentum.
Nathan Howard/ReutersOil prices dip under $100 after Trump says Iran war ‘very complete’
Oil prices dipped on Monday after US President Donald Trump said the war against Iran was “very complete.”
Live Nation settles antitrust case with US DOJ
The outcome had already prompted the ouster of the US’ top antitrust enforcer.
Impact of Iran war hits African, Asian economies
South Africa said it may have to revise its budget forecasts, while East Asian stock markets plummeted.
US labor market weakness puts Federal Reserve in tough spot
The latest US labor market report, which showed the country lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushed stocks down and pointed to broader economic weakness.
TechnologyJason Reed/Reuters 
Anshuman Daga/Reuters
Anthropic sues the Pentagon over supply chain risk designation
The action marks the latest chapter in the feud between the Trump administration and the AI startup.
Jason Reed/ReutersPayments startup Airwallex expands into US, crosses $1B in assets under management
Airwallex hopes its infrastructure, which took a decade to build, will put it in a good position to capitalize on the AI boom, which is driven by subscriptions and API fees.
Anshuman Daga/ReutersAnthropic’s Amodei grows up on the job
Anthropic appeared to have the upper hand — until a leaked memo surfaced Wednesday showing Amodei calling Trump a petty dictator.
AI guardrails more popular than beating China, survey finds
Support for AI guardrails is one of the most bipartisan issues in the US, according to a new survey shared exclusively with Semafor.
Nvidia stops making China-bound AI chips: Report
Nvidia has stopped making its H200 chips intended for the Chinese market, the Financial Times reported.
US military is using Claude in Iran amid Anthropic feud
The Pentagon deployed the powerful tool during its attack on Iran within hours of banning it, and is reportedly still using it.
Energy
Ann Wang/Reuters
Ann Wang/Reuters
Oil depot tanks hit by joint Israel-US strike in Tehran. Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images.
Asia feels the pain of Iran energy shock
Government employees in the Philippines are working four days a week to reduce energy usage.
Ann Wang/ReutersOil breached $100. The market still doesn’t believe in $150.
Traders have priced in a crisis not a catastrophe, but that could yet change.
Ann Wang/ReutersOil prices surge to highest level since 2022 over Iran war
The Iran war briefly drove oil to $118 a barrel on Mond.
Oil depot tanks hit by joint Israel-US strike in Tehran. Kaveh Kazemi/Getty Images.GulfAnn Wang/Reuters
Oil breached $100. The market still doesn’t believe in $150.
Traders have priced in a crisis not a catastrophe, but that could yet change.
Ann Wang/ReutersIran appoints late leader’s son as new ruler in sign of continuity
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei signals that hardliners remain in charge in Tehran, analysts said.
Love letters to UAE provide antidote to derision
The essays have provided an alternative to the Schadenfreude that has tinged some international coverage of wartime Dubai.
UAE president: ‘We are no easy prey’
A common thread is emerging with Tehran: The region is not buckling under the pressure.
Gulf’s $5 trillion funds face sharply different outcomes from conflict
State-controlled investment funds may get a fresh windfall from elevated oil prices, but could be forced to direct cash to stimulate local economies.
Africa
Lines at a petrol station in Bamako. AFP via Getty Images.
Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images
The Iran war risks upending Africa’s Sahel
The junta-led nations around the Sahel — Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — are particularly vulnerable to the impact of a global energy crisis.
Lines at a petrol station in Bamako. AFP via Getty Images.Djibouti taps carbon fund for climate challenges
Djibouti created the Sovereign Carbon Initiative in 2023 to help reduce national greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030.
Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty ImagesAfrican Development Bank eyes green fund expansion
The Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa is the continent’s largest fund, launched in order to catalyze private investment in renewables.
Dangote Refinery halts petrol loading on Iran war
Higher crude oil prices could greatly benefit Nigeria and other African oil producers.
The challenge and opportunity of America First’s new health deals
Zambia, Zimbabwe are among African countries pushing back at bilateral health pacts.
Implats drags Zimbabwe’s FX row to Pretoria
Harare has imposed to surrender about one-third of foreign-currency receipts to its central bank to rebuild its foreign currency stock.
Security
Mojtaba Khamenei. Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
Majid Khahi/ISNA/WANA via Reuters
Iran appoints late leader’s son as new ruler in sign of continuity
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei signals that hardliners remain in charge in Tehran, analysts said.
Mojtaba Khamenei. Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersSkepticism over workable post-war plan in Middle East
Iran and the US have made overtures to end their widening war, though officials are skeptical that either side is ready to seek peace.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/ReutersStakes rising in Middle East as war enters second week
The US said it would expand its aerial campaign against Iran, Israel stepped up strikes against Tehran, and Iran attacked regional capitals.
Majid Khahi/ISNA/WANA via ReutersMedia
Hasan Piker on streaming all day, his relationship with Zohran Mamdani, and the lefty media machine
Since 2018, Hasan Piker has gone from streaming alone in his bedroom to becoming one of North America’s most influential leftist creators.
Bulwark CEO wants to help Democrats ‘Eat’ MAGA
The founder of the Bulwark wants to help chart a path back to power for the Democratic party.
Politico founder plots new Washington newspaper war
A damaged Washington Post could face a big new challenger.
Left-of-center groups plead with AGs to stop WBD-Paramount deal
“With President Trump having weaponized independent agencies and antitrust enforcers to do his political bidding, it is essential that states fill the void and aggressively protect consumers,” the groups wrote.
It’s bots vs. reporters at the AP
The tensions inside the wire service reveal a broader conflict playing out across the media over how AI should be applied within journalism.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Autodesk/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Aflac/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Autodesk’s model for building an AI ‘moat’
CEO Andrew Anagnost says software companies need three defensive qualities.
Courtesy of Autodesk/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAflac’s Dan Amos on succession after 36 years as CEO
The long-tenured leader has a time and a person in mind — and some advice on what the job takes.
Courtesy of Aflac/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor US Soccer’s goal for the 2026 World Cup
CEO JT Batson says the tournament is forcing brands to see the value of the sport’s fans.
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