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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / High prices are a mixed blessing for Big Oil
View / Africa’s push to produce a $40 smartphone
The World at a Glance
Updated 9:25am EDT
1
Oil prices plummeted after President Donald Trump said he was delaying strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
2Asian and European stocks slid over the energy crisis sparked by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
3Experts sounded the alarm over the long-term impact of the Iran war, saying ‘even the best-case scenario... is disastrous.’
4The market capitalization of Chinese battery makers has soared during the Iran war, as oil instability boosts renewables.
5The Pentagon will reportedly adopt Palantir as its main AI system after a fallout with Anthropic.
6Argentina’s GDP expanded 4.4% last year, further confirmation of President Javier Milei’s success in turning around the economy.
BlackRock CEO on paying for ‘America First’: ‘Self-reliance is costly’
In his 2026 shareholder letter, Fink said that governments can “do more to help channel capital into their own growth.”
Kylie Cooper/ReutersGrid fight in Puerto Rico snarls US military base upgrades
Plans to boost power reliability at two increasingly strategic US bases in the Caribbean are tangled up in a legal battle over Puerto Rico’s electricity grid.
Marco Bello/ReutersSenate Democrats demand FCC probe in Warner Bros. deal
Paramount bested Netflix with a $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. earlier this month, $24 billion of which comes from Abu Dhabi, Qatari, and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
Mike Blake/Reuters Democrat has ‘regret’ for immigration law vote
The Senate candidate penned an op-ed expressing regret for supporting the Laken Riley Act.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters Senate tries frantically to reopen DHS
Long airport security lines and an impending recess are among the fdriving urgent Senate talks to reopen the department.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters US energy secretary faces Iran fuel crisis at industry confab
First up on the program at the CERAWeek conference will be Chris Wright.
Fernandez Viloria/Reuters How Brian Niccol jolted Starbucks back to growth
Corporate turnarounds require quick decisions and ‘brutal’ feedback for the CEO, Niccol said in the first episode of Semafor’s ‘CEO Signal’ show.
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
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PoliticsMike Blake/Reuters Annabelle Gordon/Reuters Annabelle Gordon/Reuters
Senate Democrats demand FCC probe in Warner Bros. deal
Paramount bested Netflix with a $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. earlier this month, $24 billion of which comes from Abu Dhabi, Qatari, and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
Mike Blake/Reuters Democrat has ‘regret’ for immigration law vote
The Senate candidate penned an op-ed expressing regret for supporting the Laken Riley Act.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters Senate tries frantically to reopen DHS
Long airport security lines and an impending recess are among the fdriving urgent Senate talks to reopen the department.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters US energy secretary faces Iran fuel crisis at industry confab
First up on the program at the CERAWeek conference will be Chris Wright.
‘We’re not keeping up’: Why the future of war still eludes US leaders
A decade of bipartisan agreement didn’t drive the evolution many military experts wanted.
Trump to send ICE to airports as long security lines cause travel chaos
US immigration agents will be deployed to airports on Monday, President Donald Trump said, escalating a standoff in Washington over a government funding deal.
US lifts sanctions on Iranian oil at sea
The US temporarily waived sanctions on Iranian oil that’s already at sea, boosting the war economy of the nation Washington is waging war against.
US and Iran ramp up threats to target civilian infrastructure
The US said it would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran responded by threatening to target energy facilities and water desalination plants across the region.
Paxton PAC buys more anti-Cornyn ads for Mar-A-Lago
The Texas Senate hopeful is spending for an audience of one: President Donald Trump.
Senate Democrats square off with each other in ‘spicy primaries’
The days of Democratic party leadership picking winners is over.
Debatable: Will Russia’s luck last?
The Iran war temporarily benefits Moscow, but there’s disagreement over what it means for the Kremlin long-term.
Business
Smoke at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery. Stringer/Reuters.
Fears grow over Iran war’s long-term impact
Experts say that even if the crisis is resolved quickly, the impact could last for months.
Smoke at Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura oil refinery. Stringer/Reuters.Senate Democrats demand FCC probe in Warner Bros. deal
Paramount bested Netflix with a $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. earlier this month, $24 billion of which comes from Abu Dhabi, Qatari, and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
BlackRock CEO on paying for ‘America First’: ‘Self-reliance is costly’
In his 2026 shareholder letter, Fink said that governments can “do more to help channel capital into their own growth.”
Why CEOs should care about the quantum ‘space race’
IonQ’s Niccolo de Masi says getting quantum security right is ‘a matter of survivability.’
Gold, other metals fall as Iran war roils commodities
The selloff hit copper and palladium, joining gold and silver, which have fallen since the war began.
Technology
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Inna Varenytsia/Reuters
OpenAI to nearly double headcount this year
OpenAI plans to nearly double its headcount to 8,000 employees this year, as the startup ramps up a push to sell its AI products to businesses, the Financial Times reported.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersUkraine makes territorial gains as Russia loses Starlink access
Ukraine has achieved its largest domestic territorial gains in more than two years after Elon Musk cut off Starlink internet service to Russian forces, showing how digital infrastructure is redefining the modern battlefield.
Inna Varenytsia/ReutersMicrosoft’s options to rein in OpenAI
Why is exclusivity so important to Microsoft?
Conservative group, teacher’s union team up on chatbots
The issue of children having access to chatbots is uniting even the unlikeliest of groups.
California bill aims to help vibe coders
The so-called Blocking Anticompetitive Self-preferencing by Entrenched Dominant Platforms Act (BASED Act) goes after big tech companies that are stomping on young startups.
Chatbots are learning from Reddit and LinkedIn
Turns out what the growing class of LinkedInfluencers say sort of matters.
Energy
Chairman of the Board and CEO of Chevron Mike Wirth. Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/Reuters
Arathy Somasekhar/Reuters
Big Oil diverges from DC when it comes to the energy outlook
Oil executives and the Trump administration are presenting diverging outlooks for the global energy market.
Chairman of the Board and CEO of Chevron Mike Wirth. Kylie Cooper/ReutersIran war exposes risks to the AI boom
Major East Asian firms that drive chip manufacturing rely on the Middle East for energy imports.
Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/ReutersUS shale producers may benefit from reduced Gulf oil flows
Oil consumers could seek alternative supplies in stable economies with secure supply chains outside the Middle East.
Arathy Somasekhar/ReutersGulf
@GulfAir/X
Airlines take evasive action to maintain travel flow in the Gulf
Journeys to the airport have become complicated for many Gulf travelers, often involving crossing into a neighboring country where airspace remains open.
@GulfAir/XAttack on Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar jolts gas markets
The consequences of the attack will affect the global economy until the end of the decade.
Gulf islands may become central to Iran war
With thousands of US marines are being deployed to the Middle East, small Gulf islands could become central to the war in the weeks ahead.
US and Iran ramp up threats to target civilian infrastructure
The US said it would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran responded by threatening to target energy facilities and water desalination plants across the region.
In the Iran war, the Gulf’s shock absorber is still oil
Diversification may have made Gulf economies broader, but oil and the wealth it has helped generate still matter most in this war.
Africa
Luc Gnago/Reuters
Arcadia Lithium mine in Zimbabwe. Tafadzwa Ufumeli/Getty Images.
Africa’s push for a $40 smartphone and the lessons from China
The campaign led by Africa’s biggest mobile networks is one of the most consequential digital policy developments on the continent in years.
Luc Gnago/ReutersChina urges companies to strengthen Zimbabwe compliance
Beijing’s move, which follows Harare’s curbs on lithium exports, is an acknowledgement that even its closest African partners can impose abrupt policy shifts.
Arcadia Lithium mine in Zimbabwe. Tafadzwa Ufumeli/Getty Images.US shifts ties with DRC, Rwanda
Washington recently sanctioned elements of Rwanda’s military and reopened limited security cooperation with Kinshasa.
Absa bank plans African expansion
The South African told Semafor that Ghana and Zambia were emerging from financial crises with clear reform paths and stronger private sector appetite.
Iran war drives interest in Dangote refinery fuel
South Africa, the continent’s largest fuel importer, inquired about a 12-month supply contract with the Lagos-based refinery.
Why Nigeria needs to talk with the jihadists
As the government struggles with a resurgence in terrorist activity and the US looks elsewhere, now would be a good time for serious negotiations.
Security
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Omar Sanadiki/Reuters
DVIDS/Handout via Reuters
Israel kills Iran intel chief
Esmail Khatib’s death came within 24 hours of Israeli strikes taking out Iran’s security chief and the head of its feared paramilitary force.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via ReutersIsrael kills powerful Iran security chief
Ali Larijani ran Iran’s national security council and was seen as the country’s de facto leader after the former ayatollah was assassinated.
Omar Sanadiki/ReutersIran’s asymmetric warfare challenges US
The US is confronting its limitations in dealing with Iran’s asymmetric warfare, analysts argued.
DVIDS/Handout via ReutersMedia
Screenshot of Vox’s website
Vox Media tried to sell its podcasts, and itself
The company now says its podcast network is not for sale.
Screenshot of Vox’s website Newsom calls FCC chairman’s threats ‘sick’
The California governor argued people from all political perspectives should be concerned about federal regulators weighing in on news content.
Why (and how) everyone is cold-calling the president
Plus, what happened when Semafor’s Max Tani gave him a ring.
Oscars mask a Hollywood in crisis
As Hollywood celebrates the Oscars on Sunday, the glitz masks a deeper crisis for the entertainment industry: rising production costs.
AI is the latest gatekeeper between brands and buyers
Companies are now writing ad copy for bots, not people, and those bots are telling consumers what products to buy.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Why CEOs should care about the quantum ‘space race’
IonQ’s Niccolo de Masi says getting quantum security right is ‘a matter of survivability.’
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor How Brian Niccol jolted Starbucks back to growth
Corporate turnarounds require quick decisions and ‘brutal’ feedback for the CEO, Niccol said in the first episode of Semafor’s ‘CEO Signal’ show.
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Kyle Clark got BETA’s air taxis ready for takeoff
The electric aircraft company’s CEO has a ‘burn-the-boats’ approach to decision-making.
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD