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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / High prices are a mixed blessing for Big Oil
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:34pm EDT
1
Stocks rose and oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump eased his threats on Iran.
2Beijing said it would ease a planned hike in gas prices, as China’s drivers began to feel the pain of the Iran war’s energy shock.
3Europe is quietly supporting the US’ campaign against Iran, even as President Donald Trump lambasts the continent for staying on the sidelines.
4The chaos plaguing US airports deepened as travelers faced hours-long lines stemming from a partial government shutdown.
5The founders of Kalshi and Polymarket are backing a new venture capital fund focused on prediction markets.
6The market capitalization of Chinese battery makers has soared during the Iran war, as oil instability boosts renewables.
US to keep attacking Iran as Israel stays on sidelines of talks
President Donald Trump’s five-day pause applies only to “their energy sites,” a US official confirmed to Semafor, with other hostilities continuing.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersPoll: Care anecdotes resonate with voters
Respondents were significantly more likely to support candidates who share their personal experiences of struggling to afford care.
Arin Yoon/ReutersCarlyle’s Stavridis says investors are already mapping out post-war Iran
“Those are investment opportunities that ought to be taken very seriously,” the retired NATO supreme commander says of Iran, Venezuela, Ukraine — and Cuba.
Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images/Benoit Tessier/ReutersBlackRock CEO on paying for ‘America First’: ‘Self-reliance is costly’
In his 2026 shareholder letter, Fink said that governments can “do more to help channel capital into their own growth.”
Kylie Cooper/ReutersGrid fight in Puerto Rico snarls US military base upgrades
Plans to boost power reliability at two increasingly strategic US bases in the Caribbean are tangled up in a legal battle over Puerto Rico’s electricity grid.
Marco Bello/ReutersSenate Democrats demand FCC probe in Warner Bros. deal
Paramount bested Netflix with a $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. earlier this month, $24 billion of which comes from Abu Dhabi, Qatari, and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
Mike Blake/Reuters Democrat has ‘regret’ for immigration law vote
The Senate candidate penned an op-ed expressing regret for supporting the Laken Riley Act.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters 
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Politics
Adam Gray/Reuters
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/ReutersKylie Cooper/Reuters
US air travel chaos worsens over DHS shutdown
The chaos plaguing US airports deepened on Monday as travelers faced hours-long lines stemming from a partial government shutdown.
Adam Gray/ReutersEurope quietly supports US campaign against Iran
US military bases in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Italy, France, and Greece are fueling and launching American bombers and drones.
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/ReutersUS to keep attacking Iran as Israel stays on sidelines of talks
President Donald Trump’s five-day pause applies only to “their energy sites,” a US official confirmed to Semafor, with other hostilities continuing.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersPoll: Care anecdotes resonate with voters
Respondents were significantly more likely to support candidates who share their personal experiences of struggling to afford care.
Senate Democrats demand FCC probe in Warner Bros. deal
Paramount bested Netflix with a $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. earlier this month, $24 billion of which comes from Abu Dhabi, Qatari, and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
Democrat has ‘regret’ for immigration law vote
The Senate candidate penned an op-ed expressing regret for supporting the Laken Riley Act.
Senate tries frantically to reopen DHS
Long airport security lines and an impending recess are among the fdriving urgent Senate talks to reopen the department.
US energy secretary faces Iran fuel crisis at industry confab
First up on the program at the CERAWeek conference will be Chris Wright.
‘We’re not keeping up’: Why the future of war still eludes US leaders
A decade of bipartisan agreement didn’t drive the evolution many military experts wanted.
Trump to send ICE to airports as long security lines cause travel chaos
US immigration agents will be deployed to airports on Monday, President Donald Trump said, escalating a standoff in Washington over a government funding deal.
US lifts sanctions on Iranian oil at sea
The US temporarily waived sanctions on Iranian oil that’s already at sea, boosting the war economy of the nation Washington is waging war against.
Business
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Marco Bello/Reuters
New VC fund to focus on prediction markets
The founders of the two biggest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are among the investors in 5c(c) Capital, which plans to raise up to $35 million.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Marco Bello/ReutersMarkets relieved as Trump eases on Iran
Stocks rose and oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump eased his threats on Iran.
Carlyle’s Stavridis says investors are already mapping out post-war Iran
“Those are investment opportunities that ought to be taken very seriously,” the retired NATO supreme commander says of Iran, Venezuela, Ukraine — and Cuba.
Fears grow over Iran war’s long-term impact
Experts say that even if the crisis is resolved quickly, the impact could last for months.
Senate Democrats demand FCC probe in Warner Bros. deal
Paramount bested Netflix with a $111 billion bid for Warner Bros. earlier this month, $24 billion of which comes from Abu Dhabi, Qatari, and Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
TechnologyKalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Marco Bello/Reuters 
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
New VC fund to focus on prediction markets
The founders of the two biggest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are among the investors in 5c(c) Capital, which plans to raise up to $35 million.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Marco Bello/ReutersOpenAI to nearly double headcount this year
OpenAI plans to nearly double its headcount to 8,000 employees this year, as the startup ramps up a push to sell its AI products to businesses, the Financial Times reported.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersUkraine makes territorial gains as Russia loses Starlink access
Ukraine has achieved its largest domestic territorial gains in more than two years after Elon Musk cut off Starlink internet service to Russian forces, showing how digital infrastructure is redefining the modern battlefield.
Microsoft’s options to rein in OpenAI
Why is exclusivity so important to Microsoft?
Conservative group, teacher’s union team up on chatbots
The issue of children having access to chatbots is uniting even the unlikeliest of groups.
California bill aims to help vibe coders
The so-called Blocking Anticompetitive Self-preferencing by Entrenched Dominant Platforms Act (BASED Act) goes after big tech companies that are stomping on young startups.
Energy
Chairman of the Board and CEO of Chevron Mike Wirth. Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/Reuters
Arathy Somasekhar/Reuters
Big Oil diverges from DC when it comes to the energy outlook
Oil executives and the Trump administration are presenting diverging outlooks for the global energy market.
Chairman of the Board and CEO of Chevron Mike Wirth. Kylie Cooper/ReutersIran war exposes risks to the AI boom
Major East Asian firms that drive chip manufacturing rely on the Middle East for energy imports.
Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/ReutersUS shale producers may benefit from reduced Gulf oil flows
Oil consumers could seek alternative supplies in stable economies with secure supply chains outside the Middle East.
Arathy Somasekhar/ReutersGulf
@GulfAir/X
Airlines take evasive action to maintain travel flow in the Gulf
Journeys to the airport have become complicated for many Gulf travelers, often involving crossing into a neighboring country where airspace remains open.
@GulfAir/XAttack on Ras Laffan LNG facility in Qatar jolts gas markets
The consequences of the attack will affect the global economy until the end of the decade.
Gulf islands may become central to Iran war
With thousands of US marines are being deployed to the Middle East, small Gulf islands could become central to the war in the weeks ahead.
US and Iran ramp up threats to target civilian infrastructure
The US said it would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran responded by threatening to target energy facilities and water desalination plants across the region.
In the Iran war, the Gulf’s shock absorber is still oil
Diversification may have made Gulf economies broader, but oil and the wealth it has helped generate still matter most in this war.
Africa
Luc Gnago/Reuters
The Next 3 Billion on Tour Series: Nairobi Edition | Semafor Events
Semafor will convene leaders to advance the conversation on financial inclusion at the intersection of long-term capital, policy, and financial infrastructure.
Africa’s push for a $40 smartphone and the lessons from China
The campaign led by Africa’s biggest mobile networks is one of the most consequential digital policy developments on the continent in years.
Luc Gnago/ReutersChina urges companies to strengthen Zimbabwe compliance
Beijing’s move, which follows Harare’s curbs on lithium exports, is an acknowledgement that even its closest African partners can impose abrupt policy shifts.
US shifts ties with DRC, Rwanda
Washington recently sanctioned elements of Rwanda’s military and reopened limited security cooperation with Kinshasa.
Absa bank plans African expansion
The South African told Semafor that Ghana and Zambia were emerging from financial crises with clear reform paths and stronger private sector appetite.
Iran war drives interest in Dangote refinery fuel
South Africa, the continent’s largest fuel importer, inquired about a 12-month supply contract with the Lagos-based refinery.
SecurityUSAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/Reuters 
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Omar Sanadiki/Reuters
Europe quietly supports US campaign against Iran
US military bases in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Italy, France, and Greece are fueling and launching American bombers and drones.
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/ReutersIsrael kills Iran intel chief
Esmail Khatib’s death came within 24 hours of Israeli strikes taking out Iran’s security chief and the head of its feared paramilitary force.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via ReutersIsrael kills powerful Iran security chief
Ali Larijani ran Iran’s national security council and was seen as the country’s de facto leader after the former ayatollah was assassinated.
Omar Sanadiki/ReutersMedia
Screenshot of Vox’s website
Vox Media tried to sell its podcasts, and itself
The company now says its podcast network is not for sale.
Screenshot of Vox’s website Newsom calls FCC chairman’s threats ‘sick’
The California governor argued people from all political perspectives should be concerned about federal regulators weighing in on news content.
Why (and how) everyone is cold-calling the president
Plus, what happened when Semafor’s Max Tani gave him a ring.
Oscars mask a Hollywood in crisis
As Hollywood celebrates the Oscars on Sunday, the glitz masks a deeper crisis for the entertainment industry: rising production costs.
AI is the latest gatekeeper between brands and buyers
Companies are now writing ad copy for bots, not people, and those bots are telling consumers what products to buy.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Why CEOs should care about the quantum ‘space race’
IonQ’s Niccolo de Masi says getting quantum security right is ‘a matter of survivability.’
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor How Brian Niccol jolted Starbucks back to growth
Corporate turnarounds require quick decisions and ‘brutal’ feedback for the CEO, Niccol said in the first episode of Semafor’s ‘CEO Signal’ show.
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Kyle Clark got BETA’s air taxis ready for takeoff
The electric aircraft company’s CEO has a ‘burn-the-boats’ approach to decision-making.
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD