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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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View / We’re in the ‘call me, maybe’ era of M&A
View / ‘Chinamaxxing’ isn’t enough. Superpowers need to talk in real life, too.
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:55pm EDT
1
Beijing’s blocking of Meta’s plan to buy Manus is forcing a rethink among Chinese entrepreneurs.
2BYD reported its lowest quarterly profit in three years as low demand at home weighed on the Chinese EV giant’s sales.
3Mexico’s military arrested a top cartel leader, as President Claudia Sheinbaum intensifies her gang crackdown.
4King Charles III championed the US-UK relationship in an address to Congress that included some coded messages to Washington.
5US gas prices rose to a four-year high, while Donald Trump’s approval rating dipped, driven by concerns over ballooning costs.
6The UAE said it would leave OPEC, landing a major blow to the global oil cartel as it grapples with the fallout of the Iran war.
Voters will reward candidates who bash insurers, research finds
Voters increasingly see insurance companies as the primary bogeymen for health care costs.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters Fewer Americans see themselves buying homes, poll finds
Just 28% of Americans say they expect to buy a home within 10 years, while 45% don’t see themselves buying a home in the foreseeable future.
Benoit Tessier/Reuters UAE’s Saudi schism deepens with move to quit OPEC
The UAE’s announcement that it will quit OPEC is a blow to the cartel, which has struggled in recent years to maintain unity.
Maxim Shemetov/File Photo/Reuters‘Horsesh*t’: Hill Republicans align against Spirit’s bid for a Trump bailout
As the president considers a government lifeline for the struggling airline, a wide swath of his party wants no part of it.
Eric Lee/ReutersFCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
Paul Morigi/Getty Images for SemaforTreasury directs banks to steer clear of China’s ‘teapot’ refineries
The Trump administration has already imposed sanctions on five of the facilities, which import and refine Iranian oil.
Suzanne Plunkett/ReutersMark Cuban’s next target: Insurance companies
After taking on pharmacies with his discount-drug startup, the billionaire is taking on health insurers with a skunkworks project dubbed “The 10 Plan.”
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PoliticsKylie Cooper/Reuters Benoit Tessier/Reuters 
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Voters will reward candidates who bash insurers, research finds
Voters increasingly see insurance companies as the primary bogeymen for health care costs.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters Fewer Americans see themselves buying homes, poll finds
Just 28% of Americans say they expect to buy a home within 10 years, while 45% don’t see themselves buying a home in the foreseeable future.
Benoit Tessier/Reuters As Senate advances Warsh, all eyes on Powell
The big question is whether Jerome Powell, whose term as governor doesn’t end until 2028, will stay on beyond the new Fed chair’s confirmation.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters The 60-day itch: Iran war weighs on Republicans
The GOP is not about to start backing Democratic war authorizations, but there’s “restlessness” among lawmakers, as one put it.
‘Horsesh*t’: Hill Republicans align against Spirit’s bid for a Trump bailout
As the president considers a government lifeline for the struggling airline, a wide swath of his party wants no part of it.
Treasury directs banks to steer clear of China’s ‘teapot’ refineries
The Trump administration has already imposed sanctions on five of the facilities, which import and refine Iranian oil.
FCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
Americans’ concerns about energy prices spike, poll finds
Thirteen percent of Americans singled ot energy costs as their most important financial problem, according to new Gallup polling.
Why it’s still JD Vance
The vice president remains the overwhelmingly likely Republican nominee in 2028, regardless of conventional wisdom.
Congress unlikely to fast-track Trump’s ballroom after dinner attack
Republicans are divided over how to approve the project, and Democrats aren’t convinced it’s justified by Saturday’s shooting incident.
King Charles kicks off Washington visit
King Charles III and Queen Camilla arrived at the White House on Monday, marking the first such visit by a British monarch in nearly two decades.
Business
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. Chip Somodevilla/Pool via Reuters
We’re in the ‘call me, maybe’ era of M&A
Deal talks used to be private. Now, they’re anything but secret.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. Chip Somodevilla/Pool via ReutersFCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
Mark Cuban’s next target: Insurance companies
After taking on pharmacies with his discount-drug startup, the billionaire is taking on health insurers with a skunkworks project dubbed “The 10 Plan.”
Major central banks set to hold interest rates steady
Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will all maintain rates at current levels.
AI stock enthusiasm heats back up
AI enthusiasm in equity markets roared back before a crucial week for Big Tech.
Technology
Florence Lo/Reuters
Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters
China tech startups feel chilling effect after Beijing blocks Manus sale
The move could factor into a planned summit between the countries’ leaders next month.
Florence Lo/ReutersDemand rises for ID verification amid AI advancements
One startup, Kibu, raised $10.5 million in its seed round as it looks to build out an ID verification app.
Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters AI stock enthusiasm heats back up
AI enthusiasm in equity markets roared back before a crucial week for Big Tech.
Musk pitches ‘universal high income’
It’s the least he could do, Semafor’s Tech editor writes, considering how much money AI will make him when his Optimus robots start replacing all human jobs.
Google CEO says 75% of company’s new code is AI-generated
Meta targets similar levels by midyear.
Expect more tech layoffs
They were a long time coming, and a good thing for the tech ecosystem.
Energy
Cesar Olmedo/Reuters
Amit Dave/Reuters
Leah Millis/Reuters
Green fertilizer plant to break ground in Paraguay
Atome will construct a 260,000-ton-per-year plant in Villeta, the first industrial-scale facility of its kind.
Cesar Olmedo/ReutersIndia power demand hits record amid heat wave
The surge, driven by household air conditioning use, points to the challenges facing India as it grapples with fuel shortages.
Amit Dave/ReutersTexas data center crisis offers cautionary AI tale
Fermi’s share price has crashed, and its CEO and CFO both left their posts this weekend.
Leah Millis/ReutersGulf
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
The UAE’s OPEC exit is no surprise
Countries with cheap extraction costs, massive reserves, and diversified economies — the UAE fits all three — can afford to go it alone.
Maxim Shemetov/ReutersUAE’s Saudi schism deepens with move to quit OPEC
The UAE’s announcement that it will quit OPEC is a blow to the cartel, which has struggled in recent years to maintain unity.
Superyacht linked to Russian oligarch sails through Hormuz
The ship’s passage follows talks between Iran’s foreign minister and Russia’s president this week.
Bahrain strips citizenship from Iran ‘sympathizers’
It’s the first known instance of citizenship being stripped from a large number of people in a Gulf country for sympathizing with Iran.
Pakistan walks tightrope between the Gulf and Iran
Pakistan has taken on a mediation role that draws on its ties with Tehran, while it seeks to keep its financial lifeline with the Gulf intact.
Africa
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
Campaign posters of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in 2019. Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters.
Scaling up industrialization in Africa
The Iran war has shown the power of industrialization in Africa to safeguard against global shocks.
Sodiq Adelakun/ReutersNigerian opposition agree to field single presidential candidate
But it remains unclear who this will be, or how and when they will be selected.
Campaign posters of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in 2019. Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters.New digital atlas sheds light on Africa’s wetlands
Since the 1970s more than a third of the world’s wetlands have disappeared, largely due to climate change and urbanization.
DR Congo plans new $100M mine security force
The US and UAE-funded operation will see the country hire 20,000 mining guards by 2028.
Faulty assumptions leave Africa unprepared for a prolonged Iran shock
The continent should focus on pursuing greater regional integration and diversification, two experts argue.
South Africa hunts for nuclear talent abroad as new reactor plans advance
The country faces a severe shortage of nuclear engineers after many left for opportunities in countries such as the UAE.
Security
Quetzalli Nicte-Ha/Reuters
US Marine Corps/Handout via Reuters
Michael Schindler/Handout via Reuters
Mexico arrests cartel leader amid widening gang crackdown
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum intensifies her gang crackdown.
Quetzalli Nicte-Ha/ReutersTrump issues ‘shoot and kill’ order amid Hormuz standoff
US President Donald Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” Iranian boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Marine Corps/Handout via ReutersSome experts dismiss ‘apocalyptic talk’ of Hormuz disruptions
The economic damage might fall short of an all-out catastrophe, some analysts argued.
Michael Schindler/Handout via ReutersMedia
Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters
How the WHCD shooting laid bare the media’s trust crisis
I was at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. Some number of people are convinced we’re not getting the real story.
Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters FCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
What’s next for Letterboxd?
The controlling investor in Letterboxd, the cinephile social platform, is looking to sell its stake.
LeBron James is getting ready for his post-NBA media career, partner says
In an appearance at last week’s Semafor World Economy gathering, Maverick Carter said that changes in the tech and media landscape will allow James some flexibility in terms of his next moves once he retires — which could be as soon as later this month.
CNN backpedals after booker turns away guest for merger segment
“No one advised any editorial employee at CNN not to pursue this story,” a CNN spokesperson said.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Issei Kato/Reuters
How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHilton’s Chris Nassetta on why CEOs should ‘lift above the noise’
The longstanding leader says it’s critical to avoid “jerking the wheel.”
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Ivan Espinosa got Nissan to face reality
Nissan’s vehicle sales and share price have plummeted. Espinosa has a mandate to turn them around.
Issei Kato/Reuters AD