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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 7:57am EDT
1
US President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a new combat operation in Iran as peace talks with Tehran stall.
2The Eurozone economy grew just 0.1% so far in 2026, as analysts warned of a rising stagflation risk.
3The Asian development bank sharply downgraded growth forecasts for the continent as the impact of the Iran war deepened.
4Kenya is eyeing $600M in World Bank funds, as the impact of the Iran war hits Africa’s most vulnerable economies.
5The US indicted a Mexican governor for alleged drug trafficking, dealing a blow to Mexico’s governing party and risking diplomatic relations.
6BP signed a natural gas exploration deal with Venezuela, the latest energy investment in the country since Nicolás Maduro’s ouster.
Schiff tests GOP ahead of Iran war’s 60th day
Republicans are talking a lot about their concerns with an unauthorized war after more than 60 days, and the California Democrat says this is their chance to act.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Warsh heads straight for Trump’s Fed pressure cooker
“I think he’ll be fine,” one Republican senator quipped as Warsh faces the president’s push for rate cuts. “But if not, it’s too late.”
Elizabeth Frantz/ReutersPowell vows to stay at Fed as a governor
When pressed on timing, Jerome Powell said: “I will leave when I think it’s appropriate to do so.”
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersThe 60-day itch: Iran war weighs on Republicans
The GOP is not about to start backing Democratic war authorizations, but there’s “restlessness” among lawmakers, as one put it.
Matt McClain/Reuters Sanders convenes US, Chinese scientists on AI
The senator is heading up a rare discussion with international scientists Wednesday evening to address the “existential threat” posed by AI.
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersGhana ‘rejects’ US health deal over data concerns
It becomes the latest African country to express privacy worries over Washington’s new health funding agreements on the continent.
Baz Ratner/ReutersAs Senate advances Warsh, all eyes on Powell
The big question is whether Jerome Powell, whose term as governor doesn’t end until 2028, will stay on beyond the new Fed chair’s confirmation.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters 
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Politics
US Central Command/Handout via ReutersEvelyn Hockstein/Reuters 
Kent Nishimura/Reuters
Trump reportedly weighs renewed Iran attacks
Worries that the conflict could resume drove benchmark oil prices above $126 a barrel.
US Central Command/Handout via ReutersSchiff tests GOP ahead of Iran war’s 60th day
Republicans are talking a lot about their concerns with an unauthorized war after more than 60 days, and the California Democrat says this is their chance to act.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Surveillance dilemma: Punt or shutdown
Congress is still racing to keep expiring Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act powers online.
Kent Nishimura/Reuters Trump to sign order expanding workers’ access to retirement plans
The president’s Thursday move will be integrated with the 2022 Saver’s Match, as first reported by Semafor earlier this year.
Oil rises as Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal
The price of oil rose Wednesday after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and defended his maritime blockade.
Warsh heads straight for Trump’s Fed pressure cooker
“I think he’ll be fine,” one Republican senator quipped as Warsh faces the president’s push for rate cuts. “But if not, it’s too late.”
Sanders convenes US, Chinese scientists on AI
The senator is heading up a rare discussion with international scientists Wednesday evening to address the “existential threat” posed by AI.
Powell vows to stay at Fed as a governor
When pressed on timing, Jerome Powell said: “I will leave when I think it’s appropriate to do so.”
Progressive groups: We don’t need the Democratic Party to cause a ‘blue wave’
Semafor got an exclusive seat at the America Votes summit, where left-leaning activists and unions plotted their comeback.
Why Ruben Gallego put himself in the barrel
The Arizona Democrat and potential presidential candidate talked to Semafor about his unique approach to Eric Swalwell’s implosion.
Voters will reward candidates who bash insurers, research finds
Voters increasingly see insurance companies as the primary bogeymen for health care costs.
Business
Dan Schulman, Verizon CEO, on AI, layoffs and punching back
“If somebody’s going to punch me, I’m going to punch back,” Verizon CEO Dan Schulman says in this episode of The CEO Signal.
Asian development bank sharply downgrades growth forecasts
The high cost of oil has pushed the rupee down in India, and South Korea and Japan both saw petrochemical and refinery activities slow.
Iran war drive stagflation risk in Europe
The eurozone grew just 0.1% in the first quarter, while inflation accelerated to 3%, and falling consumer sentiment hints at collapsing demand.
Big Tech firms beat earnings expectations amid AI spending questions
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all beat first-quarter earnings expectations on Wednesday, but investors are poised to closely scrutinize their heavy spending on AI.
Oil rises as Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal
The price of oil rose Wednesday after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and defended his maritime blockade.
Technology
Reuters/Noah Berger for AWS
Manuel Orbegozo/Reuters
Big Tech firms beat earnings expectations amid AI spending questions
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all beat first-quarter earnings expectations on Wednesday, but investors are poised to closely scrutinize their heavy spending on AI.
Reuters/Noah Berger for AWSMusk v. Altman trial is reverse Gladiator
Instead of Gladiators fighting for our entertainment, the emperors are shadowboxing before an angry populace.
Manuel Orbegozo/ReutersIs revenue the wrong way to value AI?
Traditional financial metrics like revenue and profit don’t tell you much about who will win the AI race in the long run.
AI tools are making online anonymity increasingly difficult
AI tools can now identify the writing of almost anyone with a sizable online presence.
Manus-Meta breakup could spell trouble for AI startups
The breakup is a reminder of how distinct the Chinese and American tech markets are today — and the divergence is only widening.
House committees probe Cursor parent, Airbnb over Chinese AI
Lawmakers’ concerns revolve around the national security risks of sharing wide swaths of data and information with AI companies in China.
Energy
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Staff/Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
Climate tech startups turn to AI
AI is becoming harder to avoid across climate tech in general, and solar developers in particular face narrowing margins.
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersUAE’s OPEC exit deals major blow to oil cartel
Abu Dhabi argued the move would allow it to act more independently in its “long-term strategic and economic vision.”
Staff/ReutersOil surges to highest level in 4 years on Iran fears
President Donald Trump warned the US blockade on Iranian ports could last for months.
Stringer/ReutersGulf
Poster of former IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Baghdad. Ahmed Saad/Reuters
America’s Iraq failure is haunting Trump’s war with Iran
Iraqi militia attacks on Gulf states show how US failures in Iraq are complicating the Iran war.
Poster of former IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Baghdad. Ahmed Saad/ReutersAbu Dhabi’s Orbitworks plans $1 billion spend on satellite expansion
Space firm signs deal with French government as it looks to build an AI-powered satellite cluster.
Saudi Arabia brings medieval cartography, and Yoko Ono, to Venice
Thirteenth-century maps, first-century incense burners, and new commissions from Yoko Ono and Wael Shawky are coming together in Saudi’s Venice exhibition.
Abu Dhabi saw prewar property boom with best-ever first quarter
Sales in the first three months of 2026 were almost half of the total figure for 2025, according to the sector’s regulator ADREC.
Saudi-backed epic flops at box office in the US
Desert Warrior, a Saudi-backed movie that reportedly cost about $150 million to make, only brought in $472,000 in its opening weekend.
Africa
Thomas Mukoya/Reuters
Phill Magakoe/Pool via Reuters
Kenya eyes $600M in World Bank emergency funds
The East African nation is particularly vulnerable given it imports the vast majority of its fuels from the Gulf.
Thomas Mukoya/ReutersSouth Africa’s law and order test
Two major anti-corruption findings are due in the coming weeks.
Phill Magakoe/Pool via ReutersSouth Africa withdraws AI policy over AI-generated sources
The communications minister admitted that the department failed to spot the fabricated references before releasing the draft policy for public comment.
Mali leader makes first public appearance since insurgent attacks
An al-Qaida affiliate and an allied separatist group assassinated Mali’s defense minister and captured key territory in the country’s north during the strikes.
Canal+ to list on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange
The announcement comes a year after the French entertainment group took over Africa’s largest cable television company, MultiChoice.
UAE’s OPEC exit could impact African oil producers
A looser OPEC could erode the oil-price floor underpinning the economies of top African producers Nigeria and Angola.
SecurityUS Central Command/Handout via Reuters 
Quetzalli Nicte-Ha/Reuters
US Marine Corps/Handout via Reuters
Trump reportedly weighs renewed Iran attacks
Worries that the conflict could resume drove benchmark oil prices above $126 a barrel.
US Central Command/Handout via ReutersMexico arrests cartel leader amid widening gang crackdown
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum intensifies her gang crackdown.
Quetzalli Nicte-Ha/ReutersTrump issues ‘shoot and kill’ order amid Hormuz standoff
US President Donald Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” Iranian boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Marine Corps/Handout via ReutersMedia
Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters
How the WHCD shooting laid bare the media’s trust crisis
I was at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner. Some number of people are convinced we’re not getting the real story.
Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters FCC challenges ABC broadcast licenses
The move could strip ABC of its ability to broadcast to stations across the country following Jimmy Kimmel’s “expectant widow” monologue comments.
What’s next for Letterboxd?
The controlling investor in Letterboxd, the cinephile social platform, is looking to sell its stake.
LeBron James is getting ready for his post-NBA media career, partner says
In an appearance at last week’s Semafor World Economy gathering, Maverick Carter said that changes in the tech and media landscape will allow James some flexibility in terms of his next moves once he retires — which could be as soon as later this month.
CNN backpedals after booker turns away guest for merger segment
“No one advised any editorial employee at CNN not to pursue this story,” a CNN spokesperson said.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Issei Kato/Reuters
How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHilton’s Chris Nassetta on why CEOs should ‘lift above the noise’
The longstanding leader says it’s critical to avoid “jerking the wheel.”
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Ivan Espinosa got Nissan to face reality
Nissan’s vehicle sales and share price have plummeted. Espinosa has a mandate to turn them around.
Issei Kato/Reuters AD