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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 5:32pm EST
1
The US said that it is “accelerating” its war on Iran, as the scope of the conflict widened.
2The US said it would introduce measures to stabilize oil trade in the Gulf, as Washington sought to ease rising concerns of a potential energy shock amid the Iran conflict.
3The US military is leveraging Anthropic’s Claude in its expanding Iran campaign, despite a bitter feud with the AI startup.
4Iran postponed the funeral for its former leader, whose killing sparked a succession race that hardliners appear poised to win.
5The EU unveiled its plan to kickstart its sluggish manufacturing and reduce reliance on cheap Chinese imports.
6Luckin’s owner acquired upscale US café operator Blue Bottle, as China’s largest coffee chain continues its aggressive westward expansion.
All eyes on Vance amid Iran operation
The vice president is arguing that Trump’s Operation Epic Fury is different from past US conflicts.
The White House/Social Media/Handout via Reuters In the year’s first primaries, both right and left make gains
Republicans sought to punish incumbents who’d shown disloyalty to President Donald Trump.
Joel Angel Juarez/Reuters Senate set to defeat Kaine’s Iran vote
A House war powers vote is also teed up for Thursday, but unity on the left isn’t guaranteed.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters View / Trump’s race against time — and oil prices, and inflation
For the US president, domestic economics may prove as constraining as any battlefield reality.
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersRepublicans watch the clock on Trump’s Iran war
While his party largely supports a conflict that polls show Americans are cool to, the more time passes, the worse it could get.
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersTrump officials face Iran questions
Tuesday is the first opportunity for many lawmakers to grill the administration on its war aims.
Ken Cedeno/Reuters What to watch for on a huge primary day
At least half a dozen members of Congress are at risk of losing their seats in Tuesday’s primaries.
Kaylee Greenlee/Reuters 
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Politics
Jose Angel Juarez/Reuters
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Jonathan Cowan. Third Way
Republican senators pray Trump pushes Paxton out of the Texas Senate race
If the state attorney general faces Democrat James Talarico, it “becomes more expensive, and it’s at-risk,” the former NRSC chair said.
Jose Angel Juarez/ReutersPeace sells
The lack of any real presidential persuasion effort for Operation Epic Fury has been surreal.
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersHow Third Way’s president plans to avoid the Biden fate in 2028
The centrist Democratic group’s chief spoke to Semafor about how to steer the party toward a candidate who’ll govern and campaign the same way.
Jonathan Cowan. Third WayAnthropic’s investors don’t have its back in its fight with the Pentagon
Some of Silicon Valley’s biggest players are staying silent.
Wall Street bristles over Senate housing proposal
Firms are particularly concerned about a requirement that institutional investors sell any rental homes they build to individuals within seven years.
Tillis goes big before going home
The retiring senator is applying his no-holds-barred Federal Reserve playbook to — well, everything.
All eyes on Vance amid Iran operation
The vice president is arguing that Trump’s Operation Epic Fury is different from past US conflicts.
Senate set to defeat Kaine’s Iran vote
A House war powers vote is also teed up for Thursday, but unity on the left isn’t guaranteed.
In the year’s first primaries, both right and left make gains
Republicans sought to punish incumbents who’d shown disloyalty to President Donald Trump.
Trump open to armed militias in Iran, WSJ reports
Trump is open to backing armed militias to help topple Iran’s government, The Wall Street Journal reported, as the expanding war raises questions about Washington’s endgame.
Republicans watch the clock on Trump’s Iran war
While his party largely supports a conflict that polls show Americans are cool to, the more time passes, the worse it could get.
Business
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
China expected to lower economic growth targets
Beijing is expected to push for a growth target of between 4.5-5% — its lowest on record.
Maxim Shemetov/ReutersUS dollar surges amid MidEast conflict
The dollar surged as the war in the Middle East panicked investors and stoked US inflation fears.
Why the private-credit panic is misplaced
Beneath every troubled loan sit billions in private equity that, due to the way these deals are structured, will be wiped out before lenders lose a dollar.
Defense stocks soar, airline shares fall on Middle East conflict
The Iran conflict is creating leaders and laggards, JPMorgan analysts wrote.
Uber’s $1 trillion plan for the post-driver world
“All of the jobs other than the driving have to be done,” Dara Khosrowshahi tells Semafor’s “Compound Interest” podcast. Fleet management is a “trillion-dollar opportunity.”
Technology
US Navy/Handout via Reuters
Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters
US military is using Claude in Iran amid Anthropic feud
The Pentagon deployed the powerful tool during its attack on Iran within hours of banning it, and is reportedly still using it.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersSam Altman pledges OpenAI deference to government amid Anthropic rift
Altman’s worldview hinges on the belief that “a democratically elected government” usurps “unelected private companies.”
Bhawika Chhabra/ReutersAI chatbots show hawkish tendencies in war simulations
In simulated international crises, chatbots demonstrated self-awareness, an ability to model opponents’ thinking, and a tendency toward escalation.
The rise of AI agents is jamming up security firms
For firms managing security for businesses, hospitals, and banks, identifying AI is no longer enough, now that AI agents handle more private tasks on behalf of humans.
A new lawsuit claims Gemini assisted in suicide
Federal complaint alleges Google designed chatbot for ‘emotional dependency’
AI is prepared to commit science fraud, research finds
ArXiv, a repository for pre-peer-reviewed papers, has been “overwhelmed” with submissions since the rise of LLMs.
Energy
Mike Blake/File Photo/Reuters
Manon Cruz/File Photo/Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
US renewables hit record high despite Trump pushback
More than a quarter of US electricity came from renewable sources in 2025, up from 10% the prior year, the EIA found.
Mike Blake/File Photo/ReutersRussia could gain from surge in global oil prices
Western governments may be less inclined to enforce existing sanctions or apply new ones in a highly-constrained energy market.
Manon Cruz/File Photo/ReutersInsurance rates for tankers passing through Hormuz could double
Many insurers are cancelling pre-existing war risk policies and looking to renegotiate at higher prices, a leading broker told Semafor.
Stringer/ReutersGulf
US Navy/Handout via Reuters
US says it is ‘accelerating’ Iran attacks
The US said it was intensifying its military campaign against Iran, as the scope of the conflict widened.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersShippers skeptical over Trump’s Hormuz insurance plan
Traders sought clarity over Washington’s efforts to ease rising concerns of a potential energy shock amid the Iran conflict
What’s behind the UAE’s new era of transparency
In a region where governments reveal as little as possible even in peacetime, the level of disclosure so far has been striking.
The last best chance to break Tehran’s grip
A convergence of strength between the US, Israel, and the Gulf offers a narrow window of opportunity.
UAE stocks slide as markets reopen after Iranian strikes
The main indices for the Abu Dhabi and Dubai bourses ended Wednesday down 1.9% and 4.7% respectively.
Africa
Karim Sahib/Pool/File Photo/Reuters
Amr Alfiky/Reuters
Middle East crisis risks upending burgeoning Gulf-Africa ties
African governments have increasingly relied on Gulf nations — over Washington or Beijing — as sources of capital.
Karim Sahib/Pool/File Photo/ReutersAfrican markets brace for inflation amid Middle East crisis
African financial markets have been hit by foreign investors selling off assets as they flee perceived risk and retreat to the dollar, weakening local currencies.
Amr Alfiky/ReutersDR Congo’s Rawbank inks $265M deal
The country’s largest bank by assets hopes to boost its balance sheet for lending to small and medium-sized businesses.
Senegal PM threatens to withdraw his party from government
It marks an escalation in an ongoing power struggle between the president and the prime minister.
Nigeria’s foreign reserves jump by 772%
The government has removed a fixed peg for the naira currency, while the central bank has resolved a backlog of forex obligations.
African telecoms giants plan to launch $40 smartphone
The move is part of a push to bridge affordability gaps that limit access to digital services on the continent.
SecurityUS Navy/Handout via Reuters 
Mohamed Azakir/Reuters
US Southern Command via X/Handout via Reuters
US military is using Claude in Iran amid Anthropic feud
The Pentagon deployed the powerful tool during its attack on Iran within hours of banning it, and is reportedly still using it.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersIran war casualties mount as conflict widens
The US defense secretary said a US submarine sank an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean with a torpedo.
Mohamed Azakir/ReutersUS, Ecuador launch joint action against cartels
The joint military campaign marks a major escalation of Washington’s regional action against drug trafficking.
US Southern Command via X/Handout via ReutersMedia
Michel Porro/Getty Images
It’s bots vs. reporters at the AP
The tensions inside the wire service reveal a broader conflict playing out across the media over how AI should be applied within journalism.
Michel Porro/Getty ImagesA new CBS News emerges amid Iran crisis
The joint Israeli and American attacks on Iran were the first major test of the new CBS News right-leaning and pro-Israel editorial leadership.
Netflix walks away from $83B Warner Bros. takeover
Paramount’s David Ellison gets the media property he has long wanted. Netflix, having swung and missed at its first big M&A deal, now has to reassure investors that its business is fine.
BBC News CEO who resigned over edit of Trump speech rejects charge of ‘institutional bias’
In her first interview since she left the BBC, Deborah Turness said at Semafor’s Restoring Trust in Media summit that it was her choice to resign.
FCC Chair Brendan Carr praises Bari Weiss’ CBS
“I think they’re doing a great job,” Carr said at Semafor’s Restoring Trust in Media event Wednesday.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Pearson/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Affirm/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
US Soccer’s goal for the 2026 World Cup
CEO JT Batson says the tournament is forcing brands to see the value of the sport’s fans.
Pearson’s pitch for company bosses to become AI chief education officers
CEO Omar Abbosh says a new approach to skills is needed for companies to get the most from humans and technology.
Courtesy of Pearson/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAffirm’s Max Levchin on how market sci-fi stories line up with AI reality
The PayPal co-founder values speculative visions of the future, even if investors overreacted to them this week.
Courtesy of Affirm/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD