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View / We’re making assumptions about the economy
View / Ceasefire offers respite, but no quick rebound for the Gulf
The World at a Glance
Updated 8:03am EDT
1
Trump said he was ‘optimistic’ about peace talks with Iran, despite persistent tensions, including over the Strait of Hormuz.
2China reported higher producer prices, alleviating fears of persistent deflation in the world’s second-biggest economy.
3Most governments lack the fiscal space to cushion the fallout from the Iran war, analysts warned, as debt-to-GDP ratios remain high.
4The US Treasury and the Fed summoned Wall Street leaders over concerns that Anthropic’s newest AI model threatens the finance industry.
5The Iran war’s disruption to air travel could reshape the industry’s future, as new routes and hubs emerge outside of the Middle East.
6Viktor Orbán accused Hungary’s opposition of ‘colluding’ with foreign forces, as he trails in the polls for this weekend’s election.
Lawmakers await Pentagon’s mystery funding request
Congressional Republicans are watching to see whether the ceasefire with Iran is real.
Nathan Howard/Reuters Republicans fight among themselves over their long pre-election to-do list
President Donald Trump’s party has a dizzying number of goals and can’t agree on how to get started.
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersSpaceX bankers game plan to blunt post-IPO selling tsunami
Elon Musk’s bankers are considering deal tweaks that will ease more than $1 trillion in shares onto the market after what’s expected to be a record-shattering IPO.
David Swanson/File Photo/ReutersMoore takes on the Sun’s ‘MAGA billionaire’ and more
The Maryland governor talked to Semafor on the sidelines of Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network conference.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters A Trump deal with Iran would likely get a vote in Congress
Democrats believe the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act would apply to an agreement that touches on Iran’s nuclear program.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters Ex-diplomat says war has permanently harmed Qatar-Iran ties
“Attacking civilian infrastructure, under the guise of ‘we’re attacking the Americans,’ is something that Qatar views as a just bold-faced lie.”
Donald Trump shakes hands with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters Iran truce already in doubt
Iran targeted a Saudi oil pipeline hours after the truce took effect and accused the US of violating the agreement.
Aftermath of an Israeli strike in Beirut. Yara Nardi/ReutersAD
Politics
Ken Cedeno/Reuters
Jessica Koscielniak/Reuters
Kevin Warsh at Semafor’s World Economy Summit. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for Semafor
First look at war-related inflation sparks political jostling
The White House sought to focus on findings that specific goods got less expensive, while emboldened Democrats decried energy price spikes.
Ken Cedeno/ReutersNavy takes nuclear-powered sub offline after $800 million cost run-up
Navy Secretary John Phelan was candid about his decision in an interview with Semafor: “We screwed up.”
Jessica Koscielniak/ReutersWarsh’s Fed hearing slips past next week
The committee would have had to notice the hearing by midnight Thursday.
Kevin Warsh at Semafor’s World Economy Summit. Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images for SemaforMoore takes on the Sun’s ‘MAGA billionaire’ and more
The Maryland governor talked to Semafor on the sidelines of Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network conference.
Debatable: AI titans influencing regulation
Some are warning about AI companies engaging with US lawmakers as they map out potential regulations for the industry.
Americans still think taxes are too high, poll finds
The share of US adults who told Gallup that their taxes are too high has remained consistent since 2023 during Joe Biden’s presidency.
Lawmakers await Pentagon’s mystery funding request
Congressional Republicans are watching to see whether the ceasefire with Iran is real.
Israel, Lebanon to hold direct talks
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue striking Lebanon in the meantime.
Republicans fight among themselves over their long pre-election to-do list
President Donald Trump’s party has a dizzying number of goals and can’t agree on how to get started.
Ex-diplomat says war has permanently harmed Qatar-Iran ties
“Attacking civilian infrastructure, under the guise of ‘we’re attacking the Americans,’ is something that Qatar views as a just bold-faced lie.”
A Trump deal with Iran would likely get a vote in Congress
Democrats believe the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act would apply to an agreement that touches on Iran’s nuclear program.
Business
Courtesy of Prologis
Inside the five-year succession plan at a $130B warehouse giant
Prologis’ Dan Letter says a long period of “letting the leash out” prepared him to be CEO.
Courtesy of Prologis Georges Elhedery on HSBC’s big bets on the Gulf and Asia
HSBC is planning to stay the course amid global turmoil.
We’re making assumptions about the economy
Previously uninvestable sectors are becoming attractive because of underlying technological shifts, and the gloomier inverse is also true.
SpaceX bankers game plan to blunt post-IPO selling tsunami
Elon Musk’s bankers are considering deal tweaks that will ease more than $1 trillion in shares onto the market after what’s expected to be a record-shattering IPO.
Anthropic says Mythos model too powerful for release
Mythos exposed thousands of software vulnerabilities in common applications for which no fix exists, the company said.
Technology
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Brendan McDermid/File Photo/Reuters
American Gen Zers are growing more uneasy about AI
More American Gen Zers are using AI, but they’re also growing more uneasy about it, new data showed.
Brendan McDermid/ReutersAmazon defends high AI spending
US tech giants are doubling down on massive AI spending despite lingering concerns of a bubble and energy shocks stemming from the Middle East conflict.
Brendan McDermid/File Photo/ReutersOpenAI pauses UK Stargate project
OpenAI is pausing its UK data center project, citing high energy costs and regulatory conditions.
Greece plans to ban social media for kids
The prime minister cited rising anxiety and sleep problems as reasons for the under-15 ban.
Anthropic says Mythos model too powerful for release
Mythos exposed thousands of software vulnerabilities in common applications for which no fix exists, the company said.
The US Army is developing its own chatbot
The US Army is building its own chatbot for soldiers, the latest sign of the Pentagon’s embrace of AI.
Energy
Eli Hartman/File Photo/Reuters
Simon Johnson/Reuters
Fayaz Aziz/Reuters
Oil prices remain high despite Iran ceasefire
Prices are still hovering just below $100 per barrel, but there’s a long road ahead even if the war concludes.
Eli Hartman/File Photo/ReutersIran war strengthens case for green hydrogen
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted interest in green hydrogen, as fossil fuel prices soar.
Simon Johnson/ReutersParis Agreement target off the table, report says
Rising electricity demand and strong oil markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are making it harder for emissions to decrease.
Fayaz Aziz/ReutersGulf
Benoit Tessier/Reuters
UK rejects Iran’s Hormuz toll plan
The UK’s top diplomat on Thursday rejected Iran’s toll plan for the Strait of Hormuz, characterizing the effort as a “hijacking” of the crucial transit route.
Benoit Tessier/ReutersAbu Dhabi’s Mubadala soars after dealmaking spree
The sovereign fund’s investment activities rose in 2025 to the highest level in at least eight years.
Ceasefire offers respite, but no quick rebound for the Gulf
Gulf interests were largely ignored in the truce, as Iran continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
A Saudi oil magazine is publishing some of the best writing about the Islamic world
Aramco has been contributing some of the most unexpected stories about the Islamic world, says the Paris Review.
Gulf sovereigns quadruple private credit portfolios
Exposure to private credit jumped since 2021, but the sector’s health now looks uncertain.
Africa
Mike Hutchings/Reuters
African Guernica by Dumile Feni, just before it was installed at the Reina Sofía. museoreinasofia/Instagram.
Airbnb faces familiar battle in Cape Town
Hotel-managed or listed units on short-term rental platforms show how deeply tourism has penetrated the city center’s housing market.
Mike Hutchings/ReutersA South African artist is changing the way viewers understand Picasso’s Guernica
Dumile Feni’s artwork is on display directly opposite Pablo Picasso’s famous anti-war painting.
African Guernica by Dumile Feni, just before it was installed at the Reina Sofía. museoreinasofia/Instagram.China’s state businesses are reshaping markets in Africa
Beijing’s state-owned enterprises have already captured markets on the continent, warns a report by the US government-backed Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
US issues Nigeria travel warning over terrorism, kidnapping
The State Department wrote that some regions now carry its highest “do not travel” designation.
FirstRand exits UK business after regulatory hit
South Africa’s largest bank by value said it will unwind its ownership of British challenger bank Aldermore.
DRC raises $1.25B from debut sovereign eurobond
Kinshasa was able to sell a stronger credit story than expected after its critical minerals partnership with the US.
Security
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
HMS Prince of Wales. UK MOD Crown/May Luke/Handout via Reuters.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Israel’s Netanyahu says Iran ceasefire is not ‘end of the war’
Israel believes its war aims are incomplete, potentially setting the stage for further hostilities amid a shaky truce with Iran.
Ronen Zvulun/ReutersUK Navy deploys anti-drone weapons amid global scramble
The DragonFire system can target 400 mph drones and comes five years ahead of schedule.
HMS Prince of Wales. UK MOD Crown/May Luke/Handout via Reuters.US targets pillars of Iran economy
Widespread attacks on Tuesday hit Iran’s railroads, bridges, and its energy hub.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersMedia
How Bluesky earned its reputation — and why it could be the way of the future
Bluesky COO Rose Wang on how her company got to 40 million users.
Democrats pressure Pentagon over new media restrictions
Democratic lawmakers are pressing the Pentagon and leaders at Stars and Stripes to share whether the department is censoring stories at the historic military newspaper.
Maryland’s biggest newspaper is going after the governor’s 2028 campaign
The owner of Maryland’s biggest paper and TV stations is keeping close tabs on his outlet’s investigation of Gov. Wes Moore.
Joanna Stern on how AI told her to quit The Wall Street Journal
“It felt like the one big decision where I actually did trust AI,” she told Semafor’s “Mixed Signals” podcast.
Biden vet launches biweekly streaming show
Rob Flaherty and Jesse Lehrich will launch Nobody Knows Anything, a 90-minute biweekly show, later this month.
CEO SignalCourtesy of Prologis 
Tyrone Siu/Reuters
Courtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Inside the five-year succession plan at a $130B warehouse giant
Prologis’ Dan Letter says a long period of “letting the leash out” prepared him to be CEO.
Courtesy of Prologis Georges Elhedery on HSBC’s big bets on the Gulf and Asia
HSBC is planning to stay the course amid global turmoil.
Tyrone Siu/ReutersEmma Walmsley on leading and leaving GSK
What does it take to hand over a company after years at the helm?
Courtesy of GSK/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD