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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 5:22pm EST
1
The dollar surged as the war in the Middle East panicked investors and stoked US inflation fears.
2President Donald Trump is open to backing armed militias to help topple Iran’s government, WSJ reported, as the expanding war raises questions about Washington’s endgame.
3President Donald Trump threatened to sever trade with Spain over its Iran stance, after Madrid refused Washington access to military bases.
4Iran struck American embassies and military bases in the Gulf, leading Donald Trump to vow a response.
5Global commodity prices surged, including for oil, gas, and metals, amid the fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran.
6Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that the US could ramp up its assault on Iran.
What to watch for on a huge primary day
At least half a dozen members of Congress are at risk of losing their seats in Tuesday’s primaries.
Kaylee Greenlee/Reuters Why Republicans won’t rein in Trump’s Iran war
“It would not be in our best interest at all to stop what’s already started,” one told Semafor.
Jon Cherry/ReutersSenate strikes deal on Trump’s housing idea
Congress is moving forward with a proposal to shut institutional investors out of housing despite the sustained skepticism of some free-market Republicans.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Trump says no fixed timeline for US campaign in Iran
The US president signaled that the expanding Middle East conflict could last weeks.
Ken Cedeno/ReutersMiddle East thrust into war as Iran leader killed in US, Israel attack
Tehran retaliated by striking Israel and US Gulf allies, rattling nations whose economic booms require security and stability.
Airbus DS 2026/Handout via ReutersDemocrats prepare war powers votes on Iran
They know, however, that their efforts will fall short of the margin needed to overcome a presidential veto.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters Some Republicans back Trump on nationalization of voting
“If he has the power to make sure that people have to be citizens to be registered to vote, show ID to vote, he ought to do it,” Florida Sen. Rick Scott told Semafor. ”
Nathan Howard/Reuters AD
Politics
US Navy/Handout via Reuters
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
Al Drago/Reuters
Trump open to armed militias in Iran, WSJ reports
Trump is open to backing armed militias to help topple Iran’s government, The Wall Street Journal reported, as the expanding war raises questions about Washington’s endgame.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersRepublicans watch the clock on Trump’s Iran war
While his party largely supports a conflict that polls show Americans are cool to, the more time passes, the worse it could get.
Jonathan Ernst/ReutersTrump hosts German Chancellor Merz in Washington
Merz said Germany stood behind the US war on Iran, while adding that Berlin had no desire to participate.
Al Drago/ReutersWhat to watch for on a huge primary day
At least half a dozen members of Congress are at risk of losing their seats in Tuesday’s primaries.
Senate strikes deal on Trump’s housing idea
Congress is moving forward with a proposal to shut institutional investors out of housing despite the sustained skepticism of some free-market Republicans.
Trump officials face Iran questions
Tuesday is the first opportunity for many lawmakers to grill the administration on its war aims.
Why Republicans won’t rein in Trump’s Iran war
“It would not be in our best interest at all to stop what’s already started,” one told Semafor.
As homeland security shutdown drags on, Thune pivots
The majority leader reasons that the Senate can flip back quickly to Department of Homeland Security funding if there’s a deal.
Texas’ Democratic Senate primary now a personality war
Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico tell more or less the same story about where their party went wrong. Their battle is more about themselves.
Some Republicans back Trump on nationalization of voting
“If he has the power to make sure that people have to be citizens to be registered to vote, show ID to vote, he ought to do it,” Florida Sen. Rick Scott told Semafor. ”
Democrats prepare war powers votes on Iran
They know, however, that their efforts will fall short of the margin needed to overcome a presidential veto.
Business
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
US dollar surges amid MidEast conflict
The dollar surged as the war in the Middle East panicked investors and stoked US inflation fears.
Brendan McDermid/ReutersWhy the private-credit panic is misplaced
Beneath every troubled loan sit billions in private equity that, due to the way these deals are structured, will be wiped out before lenders lose a dollar.
Defense stocks soar, airline shares fall on Middle East conflict
The Iran conflict is creating leaders and laggards, JPMorgan analysts wrote.
Uber’s $1 trillion plan for the post-driver world
“All of the jobs other than the driving have to be done,” Dara Khosrowshahi tells Semafor’s “Compound Interest” podcast. Fleet management is a “trillion-dollar opportunity.”
Global commodity prices surge as Iran fallout widens
The benchmark international oil price rose 4%, reaching its highest level in more than a year, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt.
Technology
A view of construction progress at the Stargate UAE data center in Abu Dhabi. Courtesy Emirates News Agency-WAM.
Denis Balibouse/Reuters
Data centers are caught in the crossfire of the Iran war
Putting data centers in an underground bunker could cost $200 million.
A view of construction progress at the Stargate UAE data center in Abu Dhabi. Courtesy Emirates News Agency-WAM.CERN scientists use AI to reevaluate physics theories
Many of the theories physicists rely on are incomplete, and until a flaw is found which can reveal new physics, the field is somewhat stuck.
Denis Balibouse/ReutersAnthropic says yet to hear about US government blacklisting
A row with the US government began after Anthropic refused to allow defense officials to use its technology in certain situations.
Downloads of Anthropic’s Claude surge after Pentagon spat
Anthropic had refused to give the US military unfettered access to its technology.
Hours after Pentagon bans Anthropic, OpenAI strikes defense deal
Hegseth’s harsh punishment is the culmination of a long, slow slide that began with a political disagreement.
New AI-generated videos push boundaries
One video was a mock commercial for a gym where humans who lost their jobs to AI instead power it by exercising at “Energym,” run by aged versions of Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Jeff Bezos.
Energy
Mike Blake/File Photo/Reuters
Manon Cruz/File Photo/Reuters
Stringer/Reuters
US renewables hit record high despite Trump pushback
More than a quarter of US electricity came from renewable sources in 2025, up from 10% the prior year, the EIA found.
Mike Blake/File Photo/ReutersRussia could gain from surge in global oil prices
Western governments may be less inclined to enforce existing sanctions or apply new ones in a highly-constrained energy market.
Manon Cruz/File Photo/ReutersInsurance rates for tankers passing through Hormuz could double
Many insurers are cancelling pre-existing war risk policies and looking to renegotiate at higher prices, a leading broker told Semafor.
Stringer/ReutersGulf
A burning aircraft falls from the sky in Kuwait. Social media via Reuters.
Gulf crisis prompts viral videos and scams
Videos of American pilots talking to Kuwaiti citizens have gone viral online.
A burning aircraft falls from the sky in Kuwait. Social media via Reuters.UAE, Saudi leaders attempt to maintain appearance of daily life amid Iran strikes
UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan was seen walking through Dubai Mall.
Gulf officials insist weapons systems are well stocked amid questions
While there are no details about depletion rates, there appears to be a discrepancy between offense and defense capabilities among US allies.
US urges citizens to leave Gulf over ‘serious safety risks’
The travel advisory was published around the same time that the US embassy in Riyadh was hit by two Iranian drones.
US’ Iran campaign faces dwindling munitions stockpiles
An extended US military campaign in Iran could be constrained by a munitions shortage.
Africa
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
A petrol tanker leaves the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters.
US sanctions Rwanda’s top army officers over DR Congo conflict
The penalties caused tensions to flare between both countries.
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersAfrica braces for Middle East conflict fallout on fuel
A jump in oil prices offered short-term fiscal relief for African crude producers while raising inflation risks for the continent’s fuel importers.
A petrol tanker leaves the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters.Africa could find itself in ‘middle’ of Iran war
North and East African states are exposed to risks from primary and proxy actors in the Gulf, analysts said.
Mining giant Rio Tinto to restart major South Africa minerals project
The project was halted for six years because of violent unrest including protests and extortion attempts.
The drone-making startup with big dreams of securing Nigeria
Terra Industries raised $34 million in January across two funding rounds amid heightened US interest in Nigeria’s security crisis.
China’s media push in Africa has largely failed, analysts say
Beijing had rolled out a multi-billion-dollar, decades-long campaign to expand Chinese media’s presence in Africa.
SecurityUS Navy/Handout via Reuters 
Smoke rises in Abu Dhabi. Abdelhadi Ramahi/Reuters
The aftermath of a strike on Iran. Majid Asgaripour/WANA via Reuters
Trump open to armed militias in Iran, WSJ reports
Trump is open to backing armed militias to help topple Iran’s government, The Wall Street Journal reported, as the expanding war raises questions about Washington’s endgame.
US Navy/Handout via ReutersIran strikes US embassies, military bases in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain
US President Donald Trump vowed a response “soon,” after his country’s embassy in Riyadh was hit by a drone attack.
Smoke rises in Abu Dhabi. Abdelhadi Ramahi/ReutersWhite House warns US likely to ramp up assault on Iran
US President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State both indicated that there is no immediate end in sight for the sudden conflict with Iran.
The aftermath of a strike on Iran. Majid Asgaripour/WANA via ReutersMedia
Michel Porro/Getty Images
It’s bots vs. reporters at the AP
The tensions inside the wire service reveal a broader conflict playing out across the media over how AI should be applied within journalism.
Michel Porro/Getty ImagesA new CBS News emerges amid Iran crisis
The joint Israeli and American attacks on Iran were the first major test of the new CBS News right-leaning and pro-Israel editorial leadership.
Netflix walks away from $83B Warner Bros. takeover
Paramount’s David Ellison gets the media property he has long wanted. Netflix, having swung and missed at its first big M&A deal, now has to reassure investors that its business is fine.
BBC News CEO who resigned over edit of Trump speech rejects charge of ‘institutional bias’
In her first interview since she left the BBC, Deborah Turness said at Semafor’s Restoring Trust in Media summit that it was her choice to resign.
FCC Chair Brendan Carr praises Bari Weiss’ CBS
“I think they’re doing a great job,” Carr said at Semafor’s Restoring Trust in Media event Wednesday.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of Pearson/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Affirm/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
US Soccer’s goal for the 2026 World Cup
CEO JT Batson says the tournament is forcing brands to see the value of the sport’s fans.
Pearson’s pitch for company bosses to become AI chief education officers
CEO Omar Abbosh says a new approach to skills is needed for companies to get the most from humans and technology.
Courtesy of Pearson/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAffirm’s Max Levchin on how market sci-fi stories line up with AI reality
The PayPal co-founder values speculative visions of the future, even if investors overreacted to them this week.
Courtesy of Affirm/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD