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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:50pm EDT
1
The prices of metals both precious and industrial fell as the Iran war roiled global commodities markets.
2Central bankers in major economies are voicing concerns about the risk of inflation stemming from the war in Iran.
3The Iran war’s global energy shocks are proving to be a boon for Russia — and may also benefit Tehran.
4Japan’s Sanae Takaichi heralded warm ties with Donald Trump in a White House meeting, but the strain in the countries’ alliance was evident.
5Tehran stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf after Israel hit the world’s largest gas field in Iran.
6Iran’s attacks on Gulf nations are helping to reshape diplomacy in the region, potentially strengthening Israel’s role.
Treasury eyes lifting sanctions on Iranian oil
The Trump administration has been desperate to rein in oil prices.
Abdul Saboor/ReutersUS banking regulators set to ease capital requirements
US banking regulators are expected to vote this morning on their latest attempt to overhaul capital requirements following years of intense lobbying.
Kevin Mohatt/Reuters Humans — not AI — are to blame for deadly Iran school strike, sources say
The US missile attack is fueling global debate over AI and the military.
Joey Pfeifer/SemaforThe world’s biggest economy is in uncharted territory
If America was a company, it would be a “lifestyle business.”
Kevin Lamarque/ReutersAfrica weighs Trump’s ‘commercial diplomacy’ versus sovereignty
Zambia is closely reviewing a multibillion-dollar deal that could grant the US access to key minerals in exchange for support and citizens’ health data.
Peng Lijun/Xinhua via Getty ImagesFHFA chief teases new housing policy
Bill Pulte said to expect the new policy in “the next week or two.”
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters Republican floats vote on filibuster
The loudest proponent of changing the rules, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., told Semafor he is not trying to use the “nuclear option” to do it.
Kent Nishimura/Reuters 
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Politics
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersAbdul Saboor/Reuters 
Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Strain evident in Trump-Takaichi White House meeting
Trump’s joke, comparing the US’ surprise strikes on Iran to Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor, elicited an awkward reaction from Takaichi.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersTreasury eyes lifting sanctions on Iranian oil
The Trump administration has been desperate to rein in oil prices.
Abdul Saboor/ReutersCollins wants bipartisan Iran spending bill
Some Republicans don’t want to use the party-line budget reconciliation process to deliver war funding.
Kylie Cooper/ReutersBondi’s play to defuse an Epstein subpoena partly pays off
Three of the five Republicans who voted to question her under oath are still unconvinced, but two are showing signs of wavering.
US banking regulators set to ease capital requirements
US banking regulators are expected to vote this morning on their latest attempt to overhaul capital requirements following years of intense lobbying.
FHFA chief teases new housing policy
Bill Pulte said to expect the new policy in “the next week or two.”
Republican floats vote on filibuster
The loudest proponent of changing the rules, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., told Semafor he is not trying to use the “nuclear option” to do it.
Top Senate Democrats press Trump on affordability
Their message offers a preview of their party’s economic messaging leading up to November’s midterms.
As Takaichi visits, Iran preoccupies White House
Trump’s meeting with Japan’s prime minister, which otherwise would have been about China and trade, will now focus on the war in the Middle East.
FBI investigates intelligence aide who resigned over war
Inquiry focuses on alleged leaks.
How the US economy will cope with the Iran war
Moody’s Analytics forecast the probability of a recession in the next year at 49%, driven largely by higher oil prices.
Business
Baz Ratner/Reuters
Gold, other metals fall as Iran war roils commodities
The selloff hit copper and palladium, joining gold and silver, which have fallen since the war began.
Baz Ratner/ReutersCentral banks raise the inflation alarm
Central bankers in major economies are voicing concerns about the risk of inflation stemming from the war in Iran.
Wall Street’s dealmakers face a temperature check
Can the animal spirits survive growing fears of an economic slowdown, higher inflation, war, and continued global chaos?
The world’s biggest economy is in uncharted territory
If America was a company, it would be a “lifestyle business.”
PwC US boss tells staff to embrace AI
Like many other consultancy firms, PwC faces major disruption from AI.
Technology
A view of construction progress at the Stargate UAE data center in Abu Dhabi in late 2025. Courtesy of Emirates News Agency-WAM.Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
The risk-off sentiment in Gulf data centers may be overblown
More geographic diversity is the likely outcome, rather than abandonment of the region.
A view of construction progress at the Stargate UAE data center in Abu Dhabi in late 2025. Courtesy of Emirates News Agency-WAM.Humans — not AI — are to blame for deadly Iran school strike, sources say
The US missile attack is fueling global debate over AI and the military.
Joey Pfeifer/SemaforTuring Award goes to inventors of ‘quantum cryptography’
Computing’s prestigious Turing Award went to two men who created a way of keeping digital communication safe even in the age of quantum computers.
Wanted: Experts in human emotion
The rise of sophisticated AI has created a sub-industry of specialist data providers who impart specialist information to help train large language models.
Autonomous labs seek to solve information ‘overload’
Humans are struggling to keep up with the tens of thousands of new scientific research papers submitted each year, and one startup says we should quit while we’re behind.
We’re all living inside Jensen Huang’s ‘triangle’
In this industry, “if you aren’t running, you’re being eaten,” Huang said.
Energy
Vasily Fedosenko/Reuters
Tingshu Wang/Reuters
Yoruk Isik/File Photo/Reuters
Russia benefits from Iran war’s oil shocks
Washington last week lifted sanctions on Russian oil that was already in tankers.
Vasily Fedosenko/ReutersGlobal clean technology investment triples over 7 years
Global investment in clean technology hit record levels last year, though growth slowed significantly.
Tingshu Wang/ReutersKyiv worries Moscow sanctions could crumble
Ukraine’s top sanctions adviser told Semafor that the Trump administration’s decision last week to waive sanctions on some Russian oil tankers came as a surprise.
Yoruk Isik/File Photo/ReutersGulf
Amr Alfiky/Reuters
In the Iran war, the Gulf’s shock absorber is still oil
Diversification may have made Gulf economies broader, but oil and the wealth it has helped generate still matter most in this war.
Amr Alfiky/ReutersThis is the moment for an ‘Arab NATO’
Calls for collective defense are resurfacing, but the obstacles that stalled them before haven’t gone away.
Gulf banks prepared for mass withdrawals, for now
Regional banks have about $312 billion in cash or at central banks to cover outflows, with no end in sight for the Middle East conflict.
Saudi Arabia touts ‘capabilities’ in warning to Iran
While the Gulf’s defense-first policy stands, Riyadh condemned Iran’s attacks on energy facilities, ports, airports, and cities.
The risk-off sentiment in Gulf data centers may be overblown
More geographic diversity is the likely outcome, rather than abandonment of the region.
Africa
Aaron Chown/Pool via ReutersPeng Lijun/Xinhua via Getty Images
Nigeria’s president eyes trade boost on UK visit
Bola Tinubu is seeking to shore up Nigeria’s economy amid mounting uncertainty sparked by the war in Iran.
Aaron Chown/Pool via ReutersAfrica weighs Trump’s ‘commercial diplomacy’ versus sovereignty
Zambia is closely reviewing a multibillion-dollar deal that could grant the US access to key minerals in exchange for support and citizens’ health data.
Peng Lijun/Xinhua via Getty ImagesTinubu boosted by bank recapitalization, oil prices
Nigerian officials hope the upbeat message burnishes the president’s credentials as a reformer.
Guinea mulls bauxite export quotas to mitigate price slump
The West African country, the world’s top bauxite producer, has been hit by rising shipping costs too.
Africa’s rising spending on Chinese surveillance tech
More than $2 billion has been spent on facial recognition and car-tracking technologies in 11 African countries.
Chinese firm strikes $4.2B Ethiopia gas deal
The firm will supply natural gas to a planned fertilizer plant in Ethiopia.
Security
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
Omar Sanadiki/Reuters
DVIDS/Handout via Reuters
Israel kills Iran intel chief
Esmail Khatib’s death came within 24 hours of Israeli strikes taking out Iran’s security chief and the head of its feared paramilitary force.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via ReutersIsrael kills powerful Iran security chief
Ali Larijani ran Iran’s national security council and was seen as the country’s de facto leader after the former ayatollah was assassinated.
Omar Sanadiki/ReutersIran’s asymmetric warfare challenges US
The US is confronting its limitations in dealing with Iran’s asymmetric warfare, analysts argued.
DVIDS/Handout via ReutersMedia
Gary Miller/FilmMagic
Newsom calls FCC chairman’s threats ‘sick’
The California governor argued people from all political perspectives should be concerned about federal regulators weighing in on news content.
Gary Miller/FilmMagicWhy (and how) everyone is cold-calling the president
Plus, what happened when Semafor’s Max Tani gave him a ring.
Oscars mask a Hollywood in crisis
As Hollywood celebrates the Oscars on Sunday, the glitz masks a deeper crisis for the entertainment industry: rising production costs.
AI is the latest gatekeeper between brands and buyers
Companies are now writing ad copy for bots, not people, and those bots are telling consumers what products to buy.
Hasan Piker on streaming all day, his relationship with Zohran Mamdani, and the lefty media machine
Since 2018, Hasan Piker has gone from streaming alone in his bedroom to becoming one of North America’s most influential leftist creators.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of Upwork/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol on leading through turnarounds
Why do some CEOs run toward the hardest challenges in business?
How Kyle Clark got BETA’s air taxis ready for takeoff
The electric aircraft company’s CEO has a ‘burn-the-boats’ approach to decision-making.
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforUpwork’s CEO on the AI agents that try to hire human workers
Hayden Brown sees the pairing of technology and human “orchestrators” redefining workforces.
Courtesy of Upwork/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD