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Politics
Trump weighs next steps on Iran
President Donald Trump paused strikes against Iran over the weekend after almost two straight weeks of attacks.
US importers say new tariffs spark ‘exponential’ uncertainty
With the tariffs that lapsed Friday, “we knew what we were getting,” the Consumer Technology Association’s Ed Brzytwa told Semafor.
The World at a Glance
Updated 6:39am EDT
1
Global oil prices fell by 7%, after the US and Iran paused strikes over the weekend.
2Arms giants, such as BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin, have invested record amounts in defense startups this year.
3Chipmaker CXMT’s shares jumped 466% at on their stock market debut, making it China’s most valuable publicly listed firm.
4Russia cancelled its annual St Petersburg Navy Day parade for a second straight year due to the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks.
5Kyiv attacked an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea, showing how the Ukraine and Iran wars are effectively merging.
6Wildfires raged in Spain and France, forcing thousands to flee their homes, as Europe braced for more soaring temperatures.
Defense giants invest record $4.1B in startups
BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin have reportedly piled a record $4.1 billion into venture capital rounds this year.
Chinese chipmaker CXMT’s shares jump 466% at IPO
The debut makes CXMT — Beijing’s best hope of challenging foreign producers of memory chips — China’s most valuable publicly listed firm.
BDT & MSD Partners buys into tech
The Michael Dell-backed merchant bank hired a top Goldman partner to lead and raise money for a new tech fund.
Brown-Forman rejects Sazerac approach
The closely held liquor giant has been the subject of multiple takeover efforts in recent months.
Nvidia launches new security initiative for open-source AI
A range of tech and cybersecurity companies are joining the effort, including Palantir, IBM, Crowdstrike, SpaceX, and Hugging Face.
Everyone wants something from Thune
Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s rocky two-week road to recess starts Monday evening.
Americans are feeling less gloomy about the economy, poll finds
Gallup’s economic confidence measure rose to -31 in July from a low of -45 in May, an improvement largely driven by Republicans and independents shifting in a more positive direction.
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Politics
Trump stops in Michigan swing district
He is visiting a General Motors facility in Milford, where a crowded field of Democrats are vying to challenge GOP incumbent Rep. Tom Barrett.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
US importers say new tariffs spark ‘exponential’ uncertainty
With the tariffs that lapsed Friday, “we knew what we were getting,” the Consumer Technology Association’s Ed Brzytwa told Semafor.
Mario Anzuoni/Reuters
Americans are feeling less gloomy about the economy, poll finds
Gallup’s economic confidence measure rose to -31 in July from a low of -45 in May, an improvement largely driven by Republicans and independents shifting in a more positive direction.
Vincent Alban/Reuters
Everyone wants something from Thune
Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s rocky two-week road to recess starts Monday evening.
Trump weighs next steps on Iran
President Donald Trump paused strikes against Iran over the weekend after almost two straight weeks of attacks.
Nvidia launches new security initiative for open-source AI
A range of tech and cybersecurity companies are joining the effort, including Palantir, IBM, Crowdstrike, SpaceX, and Hugging Face.
Russia’s war narrative falters
Russia is suffering from “narrative collapse” in its war against Ukraine, a journalist said, as Kyiv turns the tide in the conflict — on the front lines and in American right-wing media.
Suspect in Berlin Pride attack killed after manhunt
The deadly attack on a Pride celebration in Berlin inflamed Europe’s fraught debate over migration and extremism.
Democrats recommend South Carolina to host first 2028 primary
The Democratic National Committee’s rules and bylaws committee recommended keeping the state at the front of their primary calendar.
Warren steps up her campaign surrogate travel
Senate Democrats have three contested primaries left on the calendar — and Warren is involved in all of them.
Elder care costs threaten wealth transfer
Economists predicted up to $84 trillion in assets could change hands over 20 years as boomers die and pass on their wealth.
Business
BDT & MSD Partners buys into tech
The Michael Dell-backed merchant bank hired a top Goldman partner to lead and raise money for a new tech fund.
BDT & MSD co-CEO Gregg Lemkau. Kevin Dale/Semafor
Carlyle strikes first deal in new defense push
Carlyle’s acquisition of Secturion Systems, which makes encryption hardware for government agencies, launches Carlyle’s middle-market defense platform, which is seeking to raise up to $3 billion.
Brown-Forman rejects Sazerac approach
The closely held liquor giant has been the subject of multiple takeover efforts in recent months.
US bond yields face pressure
The quantity of US government debt is already sky-high — $31 trillion, compared to $4.5 trillion in 2007 — equivalent to more than 100% of GDP.
How Bruce Van Saun united Citizens against America’s biggest banks
The superregional lender’s CEO has made a virtue of its place in “the middle of the river.”
Technology
Tech leaders back open-source AI
A wave of US tech executives, led by Nvidia’s CEO, rushed to back the development of open-source AI models as divides in the industry widen.
Manami Yamada/Reuters
AI fuels a social media marketing scam
In what appears to be a new dropshipping scam flooding Instagram and TikTok, accounts are posting AI-generated videos depicting teens getting bullied for trying to sell Christian apparel alongside links to buy the goods.
Instagram
OpenAI’s Brockman says distillation is a technical problem
Brockman said OpenAI has systems in place to prevent distillation.
It’s time to learn to live with open-source AI
Today’s open-source models from China don’t appear capable of doing much damage yet, but it’s best to prepare.
Internal videos show how Polymarket trained creators on fake bets
A training presentation reveals how the company made a ‘fakecharts’ platform for influencers.
US lawmakers propose AI ‘kill switch’ bill
The bipartisan legislation would require companies to maintain the ability to shut down their models at short notice.
Energy
Oil spikes, stocks fall on Iran and AI fears
Oil hit $100 a barrel and Magnificent 7 stocks shed nearly $800 billion in market value on Thursday, as pessimism over steep AI spending and the Iran war dragged down global markets.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Energy is the exposed flank in Europe’s rearmament
Europe needs to start treating energy like the defense investment it really is.
Tom Nicholson/Reuters
Ukraine appears to change tactics in Russia attacks
Kyiv is letting up on its strikes on Russian oil refineries — easing Moscow’s fuel crunch and pushing gas prices back down — and is instead hitting ships.
Social Media via Reuters
Gulf
Abu Dhabi developer Aldar starts $27B expansion project
Abu Dhabi is one of the few Gulf property markets that has not cooled during the war.
The Louvre Abu Dhabi on Saadiyat Island. John Wreford/Reuters.
Saudi airlines are the Gulf’s big Farnborough spenders
Saudi airlines were the only Gulf carriers with a big shopping list this year at one of the industry’s biggest airshows.
Blackstone, KKR invest in Kuwait pipelines
Kuwait, which raised a $6 billion bond recently, is trying to attract more Wall Street firms and foreign investors as it works to develop its domestic economy.
Lull in Iran conflict tests Trump
A second straight day without US-Iran strikes shifted attention from the battlefield to the White House, where President Donald Trump faces an increasingly narrow set of options.
Iran war costs squeeze Gulf’s protein boom
Gulf consumers have long embraced the global protein craze, but the conflict is squeezing the margins of food companies seeking to profit from the trend.
China
Chinese whizzes win global math prize
Chinese nationals were awarded the prestigious Fields Medal for the first time, in the latest sign of the country’s growing academic prowess.
Simons Foundation
US tech firms debate curbs on Chinese AI
For some execs, the rise of open-source AI from China marks a “dystopian hellscape,” while others are complimenting the “excellent” models.
Manami Yamada/Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
US says China’s Moonshot stole from Anthropic
The US accused the Chinese AI startup of exploiting American tech to create its Kimi K3 model, threatening sanctions in response to what Washington described as “industrial-scale” theft of intellectual property.
Moonshot AI founder Yang Zhilin. Tingshu Wang/Reuters
Africa
Trump’s $500M private investment push into Africa
The new US-Africa Strategic Investment Program invites businesses to compete for grants that “de-risk and catalyze” private investment on the continent.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
African startup funding dips 6% year on year
The number of startups raising $100,000 or more fell to its lowest level since 2021.
Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
Senegal’s president forms new party as political crisis continues
President Bassirou Diomaye Faye will lead the new Kiiraay party in local and legislative polls ahead of national elections in 2029.
Uganda hires Washington lobbyists to combat rights reputation
The push comes as American lawmakers question the outsized role of Chief of Defense Forces Muhoozi Kainerugaba who has drawn criticism for crackdowns on opposition figures and the media.
Chinese investments in Africa soar to $34 billion so far this year
The results were the highest half-year total on record and by far the strongest performance of any region under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Coming “super” El Niño could cost Africa $20 billion, AfDB says
Extreme droughts and flooding threaten food and water security, while infrastructure damage could leave countries struggling to repay loans.
Security
Russia’s war narrative falters
Russia is suffering from “narrative collapse” in its war against Ukraine, a journalist said, as Kyiv turns the tide in the conflict — on the front lines and in American right-wing media.
Eduardo Munoz/Reuters
Iran and Ukraine wars merge in the Caspian Sea
The Ukraine and Iran wars collided over the weekend, as Kyiv attacked an Iranian commercial ship in the Caspian Sea.
The foreign ministers of Iran and Russia on July 24. Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via Reuters
Ukraine appears to change tactics in Russia attacks
Kyiv is letting up on its strikes on Russian oil refineries — easing Moscow’s fuel crunch and pushing gas prices back down — and is instead hitting ships.
Social Media via Reuters
Media
Senate Democrat’s new bills would restrict AI-powered ads and paid influencers
California Sen. Adam Schiff plans to introduce two new bills that would attempt to illuminate who is paying influencers for political speech online and restrict AI-generated likenesses of politicians.
Evan Vucci/Reuters
Former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy on loneliness and why he’s more worried about your phone than your body
Former US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy joins Mixed Signals to make the case that America’s loneliness crisis is a public health emergency.
Steve Hilton on the Murdochs, David Ellison, and conservative media’s California
Steve Hilton has lived many lives: a key strategist to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, a populist Fox News host, and — after renouncing his UK citizenship — the Republican nominee in California’s gubernatorial race.
Katie Nolan on the sports gambling takeover, covering politics, and the slow return of the boys’ club
Sports media host and “Casuals” podcast creator Katie Nolan joined Mixed Signals live at Cannes to talk about navigating two decades of upheaval in sports media.
Reddit CEO Steve Huffman on LLMs, fighting the bots, and why it’s good that you can’t get famous on Reddit
Reddit co-founder and CEO Steve Huffman joins Mixed Signals during the platform’s 21st birthday to talk about what it means to be the internet’s anti-social media hub.
CEO Signal
How Bruce Van Saun united Citizens against America’s biggest banks
The superregional lender’s CEO has made a virtue of its place in “the middle of the river.”
Courtesy of Citizens Financial Group/Jake Angelo/Semafor
The German founders bringing a Silicon Valley ethos to America’s Greyhound buses
Flix’s André Schwämmlein and Daniel Krauss say Europeans can’t blame their governments for a shortage of startups with global reach.
Courtesy of Flix/Graph Massara/Semafor
Why Coherent’s CEO believes in giving people room to fail
Jim Anderson says the $60 billion photonics group had to take more risk to meet surging data center demand.
Courtesy of Coherent/Jake Angelo/Semafor
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