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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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Renewed US-Iran strikes up risk for daring Dynacom vessels
The Greek shipowners are among the few still chasing outsized profits by sending their tankers into the world’s most dangerous waters.
Renewed US-Iran strikes up risk for daring Dynacom vessels
The Greek shipowners are among the few still chasing outsized profits by sending their tankers into the world’s most dangerous waters.
View / Banks pay backhanded compliments to private credit
View / Geopolitics shape Dems’ energy platform
The World at a Glance
Updated 12:23pm EDT
1
AI is driving geopolitical instability, experts and officials warned, with US-China tensions growing while Europe fears getting left behind.
2Tech stocks rebounded, but concerns grew that AI giants have accumulated vast off-balance-sheet debts from the data center buildout.
3A recent clash between China and the Philippines in a disputed part of the South China Sea are set to dominate ASEAN talks today.
4Surging Middle East tensions strangled shipping traffic, driving energy prices higher and raising the specter of accelerating inflation.
5The soaring price of eggs reveal the domestic struggles in China’s flailing economy, while some analysts speculate the country could face recession.
6This year’s El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest in decades, and could cause a global economic shock that the world is unable to absorb, Deutsche Bank warned.
Trump’s Canada tariffs complicate trade talks
The tariffs affect Canadian goods ranging from wine to hockey sticks and will formally take effect in 30 days.
Surging Middle East tensions stoke global inflation fears
Escalating aerial attacks between the US and Iran meant just 53 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the seven days to July 20, two-third less than a week earlier.
Concerns grow over AI giants’ hidden debts
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have accumulated $1.65 trillion in debt from the data center buildout, up eightfold in four years.
Why China’s savers want out
China’s record trade surplus should boost the currency, but Beijing is trying to ensure the opposite.
AI is driving geopolitical instability, officials warn
AI is damaging international relations, according to experts around the world, with Chinese researchers warning it has “reduced the scope for diplomacy.”
Darline Graham starts locking in support from Senate Republican leaders
She’s facing two sitting House members in the race for the party’s November nomination.
Applied Intuition wants to turn robotics into child’s play
Startup’s new Dana service allows developers to build and test physical intelligence using natural language.
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Politics
How Democrats learned to embrace Native American land acknowledgments
The party has kept to a formal custom that Republicans at times try to turn into a culture-war wedge issue.
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
More US employees are using AI, poll finds
Fifty-two percent of US workers reported using AI in their jobs during the second quarter of this year, according to Gallup.
Dado Ruvic/Reuters
Senate Democrat proposes universal healthcare for kids
Sen. Andy Kim, D-N.J., is pitching universal health care coverage for children at birth.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters
Lebanon’s president pushes Trump on Israel
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s US visit marks the first by a Lebanese head of state in nearly 20 years.
Trump’s Canada tariffs complicate trade talks
The tariffs affect Canadian goods ranging from wine to hockey sticks and will formally take effect in 30 days.
Darline Graham starts locking in support from Senate Republican leaders
She’s facing two sitting House members in the race for the party’s November nomination.
Trump administration announces new 50% tariff on Canada
The move comes ahead of expected new talks on the US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement.
Evers’ endorsement shuffles Wisconsin gubernatorial race
The endorsement capped days of chaos ahead of the August Democratic primary.
Progressive catches momentum in Maine Senate race
Maine Democrats appear poised to nominate Troy Jackson for Senate.
Younger Democrats push for committee term limits
A new video from Majority Democrats slams a Democratic “gerontocracy.”
Senators confront their closing window to reshape college sports
Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., are racing to win the support of the two most powerful college sports conferences in the country for their proposal to create national rules of the road for athletes.
Business
Banks pay backhanded compliments to private credit
By putting their own balance sheets and brand names behind these deals, banks are validating the very underwriting they’ve spent months criticizing for being full of cockroaches.
Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Burnham faces Britain’s overseas business woes
Many of Britain’s corporate crown jewels make more of their money in the US and fast-growing Asian markets than at home.
BlackRock’s M&A spree comes into clear view
“As we originate more and more, then we can go to our clients, like insurance companies, and see much more conversion,” CEO Larry Fink told analysts last week.
Bets against AI companies spike
The total amount currently bet against shares of the S&P 500 companies recently hit $1.4 trillion, about 3.7% of the float, the highest since at least 2010, according to data provider S3 Partners.
Is Walmart backing America’s next financial super-app?
Financial-services app OnePay, valued at $4 billion, thinks it’s found a way around the customer-churn trap that tanks startups.
Technology
Applied Intuition wants to turn robotics into child’s play
Startup’s new Dana service allows developers to build and test physical intelligence using natural language.
Applied Intuition
Demand for Chinese AI strains compute
Beijing-based AI phenom Moonshot paused new subscriptions for its Kimi K3 model, underscoring the constraints Chinese tech firms face.
Go Nakamura/Reuters
AI memory shortage puts pressure on governments to act
A global AI memory shortage threatens to morph into a geopolitical fight as more countries campaign to shore up their own supply, a South Korean tech executive said.
Kimi K3 threatens AI business models
There’s now an established pattern: American frontier labs come out with state-of-the-art AI models. Chinese firms then allegedly “distill” those models and use them to train new open-source models.
AI agents are hitting the pageant stage
Samantha Smitte, 37, who worked at IBM for a decade, spent about $150 on AI agents to train for the Miss New York USA pageant next week, she told Semafor.
US-Iran conflict is becoming a testbed for the future of warfare
The US this week said it had carried out its first offensive combat mission using unmanned surface vessels.
Energy
Renewed US-Iran strikes up risk for daring Dynacom vessels
The Greek shipowners are among the few still chasing outsized profits by sending their tankers into the world’s most dangerous waters.
Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA via Reuters
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company invests in $6.2B domestic gas project
The expansion fits within ADNOC’s global gas strategy and is part of a broader effort to meet rising domestic demand driven by industrial growth and AI.
Natural gas wells at the Habshan gas complex in Abu Dhabi. Stringer/Reuters.
Bahrain considers nuclear power option
The potential small modular nuclear power plant would be the first in the kingdom, which holds the Gulf’s smallest hydrocarbon reserves.
A digital visualization of the small modular nuclear reactor planned by Rolls-Royce. Rolls-Royce/Handout via Reuters.
Gulf
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company invests in $6.2B domestic gas project
The expansion fits within ADNOC’s global gas strategy and is part of a broader effort to meet rising domestic demand driven by industrial growth and AI.
Natural gas wells at the Habshan gas complex in Abu Dhabi. Stringer/Reuters.
Saudi Arabia bucks Gulf trend on foreign buying
Overseas investors poured $1.6 billion into Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange in the second quarter, the only Gulf market to post an increase in net foreign buying.
Iran-controlled Hormuz islands back in focus
Lying at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb have come under US fire over the past week.
Bahrain considers nuclear power option
The potential small modular nuclear power plant would be the first in the kingdom, which holds the Gulf’s smallest hydrocarbon reserves.
Saudi men are drowning in debt
The entry of women into the workforce has made competition in the labor market tougher, adding pressure to Saudi men’s financial obligations.
China
Chinese magnet shipments to US fall despite trade truce
China’s US-bound shipments of rare-earth magnets so far this year are 20% below average levels seen between 2022 and 2024, customs data showed.
David Gray/Reuters
Chinese startup founded by AI pioneer eyes potential IPO
Kai-Fu Lee’s firm is aiming to raise funds ahead of a potential 2027 IPO, joining other AI labs that have gone public or plan to.
David Gray/Reuters
Kimi K3 model highlights China’s burgeoning AI efforts
China’s AI were on full display over the last week.
Moonshot AI founder Yang Zhilin. Tingshu Wang/Reuters
Africa
Cameroonian designer Ayissi showcases couture in Paris
Ayissi is the only designer from sub-Saharan Africa to ever take part in Paris’ haute couture shows.
Fashion Channel/Youtube
Novo Nordisk launches cheaper Ozempic in South Africa
The new version is a bid by the Danish drug manufacturer to squeeze out counterfeit products in Africa’s most obese nation.
Hollie Adams/File Photo/Reuters
Ecowas backs $25B Nigeria-Morocco gas link
The pipeline would be a major step in expanding the region’s gas exports to help meet global demand.
Anglo names preferred bidder for De Beers stake
The Global Diamond Consortium was selected from three shortlisted groups following a bidding process, according to Botswana’s defense minister.
DR Congo’s mining law reform is raising tensions with investors
Kinshasa told Semafor it will consider changes sought by mining companies, as executives warned that repeated shifts in the rules could deter investment.
African nations eye nuclear for energy security
South Africa and Egypt are the only countries in Africa with established nuclear projects, but several other countries are looking to follow suit.
Security
UK cabinet picks point to defense priorities
New UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham named the country’s ex-defense secretary as his finance minister, a surprise move that signals a focus on military spending.
Ed Miliband. Jack Taylor/Reuters
Escalations in Iran and Ukraine compound global volatility
In the Middle East, the deterioration of the US-Iran ceasefire has reignited fears of a prolonged regional war. In Europe, Moscow launched one of its largest ballistic missile attacks against Ukraine while Kyiv ramped up its bombing campaign.
Stringer/Reuters
EU defense push meets reality
Europe remains reliant on China and the US for critical military components even as it projects confidence in shouldering its own defense.
Charles Platiau/Reuters
Media
Baltimore Sun owner threatens to sue Moore over Epstein comments
The Maryland governor tried to tie Sinclair chairman David Smith to the disgraced financier.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters
Paramount weighs leaving California over Warner Bros. rift
David Ellison is wary of decamping, but his battle with state regulators is intensifying.
Mamdani squares off with ‘The View’
The New York City mayor’s allies were frustrated by a host’s comments about fellow democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier.
NYT tries to catch up to video-addicted audiences
New York Times Executive Editor Joe Kahn said the paper is pouring resources into visual content, prompting comparisons to the media’s “pivot to video” in the 2010s.
The Daily Wire sells Jeremy’s Razors to media company’s former CEO
The sale represents the further uncoupling of Jeremy Boreing and the conservative media company he co-founded with Ben Shapiro.
CEO Signal
Why the CEO of an elite law firm sees AI driving more deals
Miguel Zaldivar says Hogan Lovells Cadwalader’s smaller rivals will struggle to compete.
Courtesy of Hogan Lovells Cadwalader/Graph Massara/Semafor
Why Edward Jones thinks AI can defuse a demographic time bomb
Managing partner Penny Pennington wants to capture financial advisers’ insights before they retire.
How Allianz’s CEO prepares for the risk of ‘huge havoc’
Oliver Bäte says Europe can no longer afford all the options its citizens expect.
Courtesy of Allianz/Graph Massara/Semafor
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