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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:25am EDT
1
The Middle East conflict has depleted US arms stockpiles, amid a wary standoff in the region.
2Poland questioned US ‘loyalty’ to its NATO allies and suggested that the EU step up its own mutual defense commitment.
3Canada and Mexico are taking differing stances ahead of the renegotiation of a trilateral trade pact with the US.
4US President Donald Trump ordered the Navy to ‘shoot and kill’ Iranian boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the bitter stalemate over the key waterway.
5China stashed more than three times as much crude oil as the US in 2025, a new report showed.
6Some experts argued the Strait of Hormuz closure may not cause an all-out economic catastrophe, as the prevailing narrative suggests.
Trump opens door to alternative Fed renovation probe
Asked by Semafor Thursday if someone outside the Justice Department could get the answers he sought, the president said they could.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters ‘Awkward’ Louisiana Senate race divides Republicans
Bill Cassidy isn’t getting a lot of help from party heavyweights as he faces a Trump primary challenger.
Annabelle Gordon/ReutersTrump says he’s ‘looking’ at buying Spirit Airlines
It’s not clear where the US government funds would come from to acquire the budget carrier
Kylie Cooper/ReutersRepublicans increasingly break with Trump over Fed probe
“One thing all martyrs have in common: they’re dead,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said.
Carlos Barria/ReutersCommerce Department’s top lawyer departs
Pierre Gentin is headed back to the private sector.
Joshua Roberts/ReutersIran war hits US economic confidence: Gallup
Americans have grown more pessimistic about the US economy in the weeks since the US-Israel war with Iran began, underscoring a key challenge for the White House.
Aaron Schwartz/File Photo/ReutersRepublicans want Trump to move on Cabinet vacancies
Senators are urging the president to nominate officials to permanently fill attorney general, labor posts — before it’s too late.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
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Politics
Liesa Johannssen/Reuters 
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters Kylie Cooper/Reuters
Progressives skeptical of tech billionaires’ UBI support
Tech billionaires like Elon Musk and OpenAI’s Sam Altman have recently embraced universal basic income.
Liesa Johannssen/Reuters Questions swirl over UAE currency swap
The United Arab Emirates’ request for a US currency swap akin to Argentina’s has a math problem, experts tell Semafor.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters Trump opens door to alternative Fed renovation probe
Asked by Semafor Thursday if someone outside the Justice Department could get the answers he sought, the president said they could.
Kylie Cooper/Reuters ‘Awkward’ Louisiana Senate race divides Republicans
Bill Cassidy isn’t getting a lot of help from party heavyweights as he faces a Trump primary challenger.
Trump says he’s ‘looking’ at buying Spirit Airlines
It’s not clear where the US government funds would come from to acquire the budget carrier
Commerce Department’s top lawyer departs
Pierre Gentin is headed back to the private sector.
Iran war hits US economic confidence: Gallup
Americans have grown more pessimistic about the US economy in the weeks since the US-Israel war with Iran began, underscoring a key challenge for the White House.
Florida redistricting push divides Republicans
Florida might redraw its congressional maps to add red seats after Virginia approved a gerrymandered map favoring Democrats.
Republicans want Trump to move on Cabinet vacancies
Senators are urging the president to nominate officials to permanently fill attorney general, labor posts — before it’s too late.
‘Baffling’: Trump’s podcaster problem runs deep
Trump may have eased his spat with Joe Rogan, but other podcasters who backed him in 2024 are angry over Iran.
‘Be realistic’: Republicans feud over immigration — again
The bipartisan Dignity Act is the latest twist in a long GOP battle over how to address immigration reform.
Business
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Dave Ricks keeps Lilly looking beyond its hit weight loss drugs
The drugmaker’s CEO says avoiding complacency is key to finding the next “home run.”
Hilton’s Chris Nassetta on why CEOs should ‘lift above the noise’
The longstanding leader says it’s critical to avoid “jerking the wheel.”
US reclassifies marijuana as less harmful substance
The decision removes some barriers to research and generates tax benefits for the legal cannabis industry.
Some experts dismiss ‘apocalyptic talk’ of Hormuz disruptions
The economic damage might fall short of an all-out catastrophe, some analysts argued.
Technology
Carlos Barria/Reuters
Larry Downing/Reuters
Meta, Microsoft shrink workforce amid AI spending
Meta and Microsoft are significantly downsizing their workforces as the US tech sector grapples with AI-fueled disruptions.
Carlos Barria/ReutersUS accuses China of AI theft
The Donald Trump administration accused China of running “industrial-scale campaigns” to steal the capabilities of American AI models.
Larry Downing/ReutersIs X downranking TBPN clips?
Elon Musk, who owns the platform, has been openly sparring with the ChatGPT maker for months.
Recruiters are entering their AI era
Executives are aiming to train a new generation of employees that are tech-savvy but know how to schmooze.
AI tokens may be starting to rival labor costs
The growing cost of tokens is a line item that CFOs are having trouble planning for.
Google is doing just fine on AI
The company has a clear beachhead through its consumers.
Energy
Leah Millis/Reuters
Tingshu Wang/Reuters
Eloisa Lopez/Reuters
Texas data center crisis offers cautionary AI tale
Fermi’s share price has crashed, and its CEO and CFO both left their posts this weekend.
Leah Millis/ReutersChinese solar exports hit record high in March
Countries most exposed to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz scrambled to find alternative energy sources.
Tingshu Wang/ReutersFertilizer prices set to surge even higher
The price of nitrogen-based fertilizers has more than doubled as the strait closure chokes off supplies.
Eloisa Lopez/ReutersGulfAnnabelle Gordon/Reuters
Questions swirl over UAE currency swap
The United Arab Emirates’ request for a US currency swap akin to Argentina’s has a math problem, experts tell Semafor.
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Higher oil prices bolster earnings in Saudi Arabia, Oman
But revenues have dropped in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE.
Qatar projects billion-dollar trade deficit for March
Emirates NBD has the metric swinging from a 12 billion riyal surplus in February to a shortfall of 4.4 billion riyals in March.
Dubai plans $9B new metro line as UAE seeks economic stimulus
The underground Gold Line is Dubai’s largest transport project to date and is scheduled to be completed by September 2032.
Africa
Mile 12 Market in Lagos, Nigeria, June 4, 2025. Sodiq Adelakun/Reuters
Abdifitah Hashi Nor/AFP via Getty Images
The Iran war’s ‘lag effect’ on Africa’s economies
While the IMF only downgraded the continent’s economic growth by 30 basis points last week, a prolonged conflict could have much graver consequences.
Mile 12 Market in Lagos, Nigeria, June 4, 2025. Sodiq Adelakun/ReutersUS senators voice concern over lack of funding to halt terrorism in Africa
They pointed out ambassadorial vacancies, gutted humanitarian programs, and a lack of transparency.
Abdifitah Hashi Nor/AFP via Getty ImagesNigerian ecologist wins major environmental prize
Iroro Tanshi won the award, dubbed the “Green Nobel,” for her work protecting endangered bats from wildfires.
Kenya lowers tax revenue goal amid Iran war impact
Kenya requested rapid financial support from the World Bank to help it manage the economic shocks sparked by the Iran war.
Ethiopia’s Tigray province renews parliament, raising tensions
The country is still recovering from a civil war in the region that stymied attempts to liberalize one of Africa’s biggest economies.
Taiwan cancels Eswatini visit after neighbors block airspace
Eswatini is the only African country with official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which China considers a renegade province.
Security
US Marine Corps/Handout via Reuters
Michael Schindler/Handout via Reuters
EU Copernicus via Reuters
Trump issues ‘shoot and kill’ order amid Hormuz standoff
US President Donald Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” Iranian boats placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
US Marine Corps/Handout via ReutersSome experts dismiss ‘apocalyptic talk’ of Hormuz disruptions
The economic damage might fall short of an all-out catastrophe, some analysts argued.
Michael Schindler/Handout via ReutersUS-Iran standoff in Strait of Hormuz escalates
Iran said that the US blockade of the Strait was a red line if negotiations are to continue.
EU Copernicus via ReutersMedia
Kris Tripplaar/Semafor
LeBron James is getting ready for his post-NBA media career, partner says
In an appearance at last week’s Semafor World Economy gathering, Maverick Carter said that changes in the tech and media landscape will allow James some flexibility in terms of his next moves once he retires — which could be as soon as later this month.
Kris Tripplaar/SemaforCNN backpedals after booker turns away guest for merger segment
“No one advised any editorial employee at CNN not to pursue this story,” a CNN spokesperson said.
Writer of media newsletter recapping media newsletters suspended after errors
Mediaite’s One Sheet newsletter has grown increasingly error-prone.
Gulf media crackdown sanitizes images of the war
Some international wires have halted conflict photography in the UAE since the arrest of photojournalists there.
How Bluesky earned its reputation — and why it could be the way of the future
Bluesky COO Rose Wang on how her company got to 40 million users.
CEO SignalCourtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Issei Kato/Reuters
How Dubai’s Hadi Badri builds confidence in a crisis
The Dubai Economic Development Corp. CEO says data, proactive engagement, and long-term goals can turn the Iran conflict into a “speed bump.”
Courtesy of Government of Dubai/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHilton’s Chris Nassetta on why CEOs should ‘lift above the noise’
The longstanding leader says it’s critical to avoid “jerking the wheel.”
Courtesy of Hilton/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Ivan Espinosa got Nissan to face reality
Nissan’s vehicle sales and share price have plummeted. Espinosa has a mandate to turn them around.
Issei Kato/Reuters AD