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Intelligence for the New World Economy
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The World at a Glance
Updated 6:50am EDT
1
The US deployed thousands more troops to the Middle East, even as Trump said an Iran deal was close.
2Oil-rich nations are seeking to capitalize on raised prices, with Brazil, Canada, Mexico, and Norway all eyeing gains.
3Investors warned that interest rates may be raised amid heightened inflation fears sparked by the Iran war.
4The Philippines declared a national emergency as fuel prices soared on the back of the Iran war.
5Russia launched nearly 1,000 drones and missiles against Ukraine in its largest attack of the war so far.
6An aid convoy arrived in Cuba, which is facing fuel shortages and nation-wide blackouts under a tightened US embargo.
UAE’s largest school operators look to reopen
Continued distance learning is starting to look like an outlier as the country seeks to project a mood of “business as usual.”
A school in Dubai, pictured in 2024. Rula Rouhana/Reuters.Riyadh’s sense of calm shifts after missile alerts
A conflict seen as a distant threat by most residents of the Saudi capital began to feel much closer last week.
Faisal Al Nasser/Reuters Bessent plays point on Iran messaging
As President Donald Trump scrambles to contain market fallout from Iran, his administration is tapping the treasury secretary to make its case.
Evelyn Hockstein/ReutersWhite House doubles down on AI bill
“We have to find a way to create a bipartisan piece of legislation that can pass both houses of Congress,” Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios said.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Trump touts Iran progress amid strikes
Oil prices ticked back up and stocks slid as Israel and Iran traded strikes.
Mohammed Torokman/ReutersSchumer indicates Democratic openness to Republicans’ DHS deal
It’s a delicate moment for the minority leader, whose members sense an opportunity to extract the maximum possible concessions.
Ken Cedeno/ReutersMeta ramps up AI adoption push
Meta appointed its chief technology officer to oversee efforts to drive AI adoption across its workforce, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Meta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth. Carlos Barria/Reuters
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Politics
DVIDS/Handout via Reuters
Ritzau Scanpix/Ida Marie Odgaard via Reuters and Kylie Cooper/ReutersJonathan Ernst/Reuters
US sends more troops to Gulf, despite talk of Iran deal
The arrival of 2,000 more troops suggests that Trump is maintaining the option of escalating hostilities, even as he said talks with Iran were taking place.
DVIDS/Handout via ReutersSenators reach deal on capping insulin costs at $35
Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Susan Collins of Maine have spent years crafting the agreement, which has conservative and progressive clout but no Trump backing yet.
Ritzau Scanpix/Ida Marie Odgaard via Reuters and Kylie Cooper/ReutersWhite House doubles down on AI bill
“We have to find a way to create a bipartisan piece of legislation that can pass both houses of Congress,” Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios said.
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Lawmakers introduce revamped bipartisan deposit insurance bill
Under the new approach, the FDIC could select its own threshold between $250,000, where it sits right now, and $5 million.
Progressives oppose funding ‘illegal’ Iran war
Democrats have started to unite against more funding.
Bessent plays point on Iran messaging
As President Donald Trump scrambles to contain market fallout from Iran, his administration is tapping the treasury secretary to make its case.
LaGuardia collision highlights US aviation woes
Federal investigators suggested that overlapping failures stemming from staffing and technology issues led to the deadly crash between a plane and a fire truck.
Trump touts Iran progress amid strikes
Oil prices ticked back up and stocks slid as Israel and Iran traded strikes.
Fetterman gets another potential Democratic challenger
Former Rep. Susan Wild is getting encouraged to run against the Pennsylvania senator, a person familiar with her thinking told Semafor.
Schumer indicates Democratic openness to Republicans’ DHS deal
It’s a delicate moment for the minority leader, whose members sense an opportunity to extract the maximum possible concessions.
Iran war a greater strategic ‘blunder’ than Iraq: ex-US official
The ongoing conflict has already upended the global economy and weakened Washington’s alliances, with long-term impacts likely.
Business
Todd Korol/Reuters
Oil-rich nations seek to gain on price hikes
Canada and Norway are among nations seeking to capitalize on energy market volatility sparked by the Iran war.
Todd Korol/ReutersInvestors warn of rising interest rates as inflation worries mount
A month ago, traders were betting on a 93% chance of US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year; that has now essentially flipped.
Jet fuel price spike means higher airfares
A spike in jet fuel prices stemming from the Iran war is passing through to consumers, resulting in more expensive airfares for summer travel, analysts said.
Volkswagen inks Iron Dome deal in defense pivot
Volkswagen is pivoting from cars to military tech at one of its factories, a reflection of the challenges facing Germany’s auto sector.
Investors see riches in rebuilding global rubble
Carlyle’s James Stavridis told Semafor that the investment outlook in Iran and other conflict zones should be “taken very seriously.”
TechnologyMeta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth. Carlos Barria/Reuters 
NASA rendering
Meta ramps up AI adoption push
Meta appointed its chief technology officer to oversee efforts to drive AI adoption across its workforce, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Meta Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth. Carlos Barria/ReutersNASA aims to build $20B lunar base
NASA is abandoning efforts to build a space station orbiting the Moon, and will instead put $20 billion toward a lunar base, officials announced Tuesday.
NASA renderingUS robot-makers’ push to counter China ‘in a hold’ ahead of Trump-Xi summit
US robotics executives said they don’t expect any major policy action on China until Donald Trump’s now-delayed meeting with Xi Jinping.
New VC fund to focus on prediction markets
The founders of the two biggest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are among the investors in 5c(c) Capital, which plans to raise up to $35 million.
OpenAI to nearly double headcount this year
OpenAI plans to nearly double its headcount to 8,000 employees this year, as the startup ramps up a push to sell its AI products to businesses, the Financial Times reported.
Ukraine makes territorial gains as Russia loses Starlink access
Ukraine has achieved its largest domestic territorial gains in more than two years after Elon Musk cut off Starlink internet service to Russian forces, showing how digital infrastructure is redefining the modern battlefield.
Energy
Essam al-Sudani/Reuters
Carlos Barria/Reuters
Prapan Chankaew/Reuters
The world’s new energy security age
Energy security used to be defined by access to fossil fuels. Today, the competition revolves around a much broader system.
Essam al-Sudani/ReutersUS grid grows more vulnerable to cyberattacks
The Department of Energy is working to share more threat intelligence with utilities, a senior US energy official told Semafor.
Carlos Barria/ReutersSolar is Southeast Asia’s cheapest buffer against future shocks
Gas generation is projected to double in the region, reaching 200GW under ASEAN’s 2030 energy transition scenario.
Prapan Chankaew/ReutersGulf
A cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz. Stringer/Reuters.
‘Zombie tankers’ sail in the Strait of Hormuz
At least two tankers have passed through the strait while impersonating ships scrapped long ago, as Iran continues to exert a tight hold on traffic through the waterway.
A cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz. Stringer/Reuters.Riyadh’s sense of calm shifts after missile alerts
A conflict seen as a distant threat by most residents of the Saudi capital began to feel much closer last week.
UAE’s largest school operators look to reopen
Continued distance learning is starting to look like an outlier as the country seeks to project a mood of “business as usual.”
Saudi promotes Trump ties in Miami, even as war rages
Trump’s scheduled attendance at a Saudi investment conference in Miami this week could solidify the Gulf country’s ties to the US administration, despite a war Riyadh didn’t want.
Dubai hotel occupancy plummets as war grips region
Hotels have shut floors or entire buildings, cut staff costs, and are offering steep discounts to residents as they prepare for a prolonged slump.
Africa
Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters
Fertilizer shortages threaten West African farmers
The agriculture-reliant region imports the majority of its fertilizer, much of which came from the Gulf before Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Afolabi Sotunde/ReutersThe Next 3 Billion on Tour Series: Nairobi Edition | Semafor Events
Semafor will convene leaders to advance the conversation on financial inclusion at the intersection of long-term capital, policy, and financial infrastructure.
Africa’s push for a $40 smartphone and the lessons from China
The campaign led by Africa’s biggest mobile networks is one of the most consequential digital policy developments on the continent in years.
China urges companies to strengthen Zimbabwe compliance
Beijing’s move, which follows Harare’s curbs on lithium exports, is an acknowledgement that even its closest African partners can impose abrupt policy shifts.
US shifts ties with DRC, Rwanda
Washington recently sanctioned elements of Rwanda’s military and reopened limited security cooperation with Kinshasa.
Absa bank plans African expansion
The South African told Semafor that Ghana and Zambia were emerging from financial crises with clear reform paths and stronger private sector appetite.
SecurityDVIDS/Handout via Reuters 
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/Reuters
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters
US sends more troops to Gulf, despite talk of Iran deal
The arrival of 2,000 more troops suggests that Trump is maintaining the option of escalating hostilities, even as he said talks with Iran were taking place.
DVIDS/Handout via ReutersEurope quietly supports US campaign against Iran
US military bases in the UK, Germany, Portugal, Italy, France, and Greece are fueling and launching American bombers and drones.
USAF B-1 bomber at RAF Fairford airbase. Toby Shepheard/ReutersIsrael kills Iran intel chief
Esmail Khatib’s death came within 24 hours of Israeli strikes taking out Iran’s security chief and the head of its feared paramilitary force.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via ReutersMedia
Screenshot of Vox’s website
Vox Media tried to sell its podcasts, and itself
The company now says its podcast network is not for sale.
Screenshot of Vox’s website Newsom calls FCC chairman’s threats ‘sick’
The California governor argued people from all political perspectives should be concerned about federal regulators weighing in on news content.
Why (and how) everyone is cold-calling the president
Plus, what happened when Semafor’s Max Tani gave him a ring.
Oscars mask a Hollywood in crisis
As Hollywood celebrates the Oscars on Sunday, the glitz masks a deeper crisis for the entertainment industry: rising production costs.
AI is the latest gatekeeper between brands and buyers
Companies are now writing ad copy for bots, not people, and those bots are telling consumers what products to buy.
CEO Signal
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor 
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor
Why CEOs should care about the quantum ‘space race’
IonQ’s Niccolo de Masi says getting quantum security right is ‘a matter of survivability.’
Courtesy of IonQ/Joey Pfeifer/Semafor How Brian Niccol jolted Starbucks back to growth
Corporate turnarounds require quick decisions and ‘brutal’ feedback for the CEO, Niccol said in the first episode of Semafor’s ‘CEO Signal’ show.
Courtesy of Starbucks/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforHow Kyle Clark got BETA’s air taxis ready for takeoff
The electric aircraft company’s CEO has a ‘burn-the-boats’ approach to decision-making.
Courtesy of BETA/Joey Pfeifer/SemaforAD