Principals

1. Border, Ukraine talks struggle
2. Haley’s big endorsement
3. Biden-Netanyahu rift
4. Democrats’ redistricting win
5. COP28 deal reached
6. A U.S.-China overhaul
7. House impeachment inquiry votes

PDB: Ernst presses Small Business Association on return-to-office plans

Powell holds press conference on interest rates … Senate to wrap up NDAA … CNN: Biden has no plans to condition Israel aid

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Hopes fade for a Christmas miracle on border, Ukraine talks

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s last-ditch plea failed to do the trick. Despite a visit to Capitol Hill by Ukraine’s president on Tuesday, Senate Republicans didn’t budge on their demands for stricter new border policies as a condition for supporting more aid to the war-torn country. Instead, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig writes, they expressed growing pessimism about being able to lock in a deal by the time the House and Senate skip town for its scheduled Christmas recess at the end of the week. “It’s practically impossible, even if we reach an agreement, to craft it, get it through the Senate, get it through the House before Christmas,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas shared that assessment: He told Semafor he believed hammering out details into legislation capable of passing both chambers would turn into “a January exercise.” Still, Sens. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.; James Lankford, R-Okla.; and Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz. are keeping up their intense negotiations over the border, now with involvement from the West Wing. They huddled on Tuesday afternoon with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas along with aides from McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. In brief comments afterward, Sinema called it a “productive” session.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu endorses Nikki Haley

MANCHESTER, N.H. – Gov. Chris Sununu endorsed Nikki Haley for president, ending a monthslong competition for his support with a crowded rally at a ski lodge. “With all due respect to the other candidates, this is a two-person race at this point,” Sununu told reporters. When asked if she knew the governor’s win/loss record — he went 0-3 in last year’s congressional primaries — Haley said “he’s won four terms here” and “knows New Hampshire like the back of his hand.” Sununu had joined Ron DeSantis and Chris Christie at some of their town halls, but both had fallen far behind Haley in state polling. The state’s GOP primary electorate is more secular than Iowa’s, and more supportive of abortion rights. Haley, who’s said that abortion should be up to the states, was critical of the Texas Supreme Court’s decision to prevent Kate Cox from aborting a nonviable fetus at 21 weeks — which would be legal in New Hampshire. “We don’t want any women to sit there and deal with a rare situation and have to deliver a baby in that sort of circumstance,” she said. “I think that Texas is gonna go back and have their own medical board look at this and say, how should we deal with this?”

— David Weigel

Biden-Netanyahu disagreements spill out into the open

The fissure between Washington and Jerusalem grew larger on Tuesday as President Biden said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs to change his tactics in the war in Gaza — or risk losing support from the global community. The remarks, delivered at a fundraiser in Washington, are a sign of the growing tensions between the U.S. and Israel over the latter’s “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza, as Biden put it, as well as plans for a postwar Gaza, where Netanyahu has publicly rejected U.S. calls for the Palestinian Authority to assume governance. Biden also criticized Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, calling out National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir by name, and said the government needed to build support for peace talks. “You cannot say no Palestinian state,” Biden said. A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces responded by saying that “we operate in such a manner that does our best to separate the civilians who are not involved in terror from the terror,” he said. Meanwhile, the U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, which the U.S., Israel and eight other members opposed.

New York’s top court throws congressional map back to Democrats

New York voters picked Republicans in four Democrat-held seats in the midterms — and now New York Democrats will pick their voters. The state’s highest court sided with Democrats in vacating the current congressional map, which was put in place by the same court last year after it ruled the state legislature was pushing an unconstitutional gerrymander. That gives Democrats a key boost in retaking the House next year that helps offset a similar court decision in North Carolina giving Republican legislators more power to gerrymander. While the New York court has moved to the left in its makeup since last year, Democrats still have to be careful not to get greedy — the process goes through a bipartisan commission to start, and the legislature could risk another adverse ruling if they overreach. But the upside is high: An aggressive map “could put up to six GOP seats in deeper danger,” the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman wrote on X.

Unprecedented climate deal agreed

The world’s nations agreed on the first-ever deal to reduce the global use of fossil fuels. The agreement reached at the COP28 climate summit had appeared in doubt — fossil-fuel producers had opposed calls for a “phase out” of coal, oil, and natural gas — but ultimately settled on calling for “transitioning away” from the polluting energy sources. The final document, though not legally binding and short of the most ambitious efforts hoped for by activists and negotiators, was hailed by global powers including the U.S. and European Union, as well as oil behemoths such as Saudi Arabia. It left significant gaps, however, lacking specific targets for climate adaptation or mandates for wealthy countries to increase financial assistance to developing nations, and remaining open to controversial carbon-capture technology. “Everybody here should be pleased that in a world with war and all the challenges of a planet that is foundering, this is a moment where multilateralism has actually come together and attempted to define the common good,” U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told the summit. “ That’s the hardest thing in politics.”

— Prashant Rao

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The China committee endorses a TikTok ban

The House’s bipartisan China committee hasn’t given up on banning TikTok or curbing U.S. investments in the People’s Republic. Both ideas appear in its detailed new blueprint for how to overhaul the U.S.’s economic relationship with Beijing, which the panel approved Tuesday. Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., who chairs the committee, said on a press call that recent controversies involving antisemitic content and Osama bin Laden’s 2002 “Letter to America” could give efforts to curb TikTok a new boost, even though the idea has recently lost steam in Congress (not to mention among voters). The panel is also still pushing for greater limits on investments by American firms in certain Chinese industries. A measure to do so was recently stripped from the annual defense bill, thanks to opposition from Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. But Gallagher said he, McHenry, and others are still meeting about a potential deal. “The issue is not over even though it did not get into NDAA,” he told reporters, predicting action in the first quarter of next year.

— Morgan Chalfant

Republicans are making their impeachment quest official

House Republicans are moving ahead today with a vote to formalize their impeachment inquiry into President Biden, even though months of digging have yet to turn up evidence of financial wrongdoing by the president. Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters Tuesday that GOP lawmakers had “no choice” but to make the move due to stonewalling by the White House, which has cited the lack of an official vote to authorize the investigation as it has refused to cooperate with subpoenas for documents and evidence. That argument seems to have won over members who’ve been skeptical of the impeachment effort. “When the president refuses to provide documents like he did last week because you don’t have a formal inquiry, I think that forces our hand,” said Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., a moderate Republican. Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., another noted impeachment skeptic, told Semafor’s Kadia Goba he was “torn” on the vote, in part because Biden brushing off subpoenas was “just not right.”

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Can the Biden administration and Senate negotiators reach an agreement on the border that can also pass the Republican-controlled House? Some argue the White House should really be negotiating with the House first. “They have yet to use political capital here in a meaningful way to move the House to where I think it should be, to support Ukraine and the broader war supplemental,” Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C. said.

Playbook: Delaware state Rep. Madinah Wilson-Anton said she was pleasantly surprised by the outreach she received from Vice President Harris’ team after she disrupted a holiday gathering hosted by the vice president by demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. Wilson-Anton still said “if the election was today … I wouldn’t be voting for” President Biden, underscoring the challenge he faces with the left on Israel.

Axios: DEI programs are taking a hit from the left and the right.

White House

• The White House Artificial Intelligence Council received a classified briefing from President Biden’s national security team during its first-ever meeting Tuesday, according to a White House official. (No word on whether they discussed Skynet.)
• White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will travel to Israel this week and meet with the Israeli war cabinet, while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will also visit the region, Biden said at a news conference.
• Biden will meet with his National Infrastructure Advisory Council later today.

Congress

• The Senate is expected to finish work on the National Defense Authorization Act today.
• Halle Berry is on the Hill to meet with the House Bipartisan Women’s Caucus and Democratic Women’s Caucus, where she’ll be advocating for menopause research.
• Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa is continuing her crusade to get federal workers back to the office. In a letter first shared with Semafor, she’s asking the Small Business Administration — which has a 9% occupancy rate at its headquarters — for a host of details about its efforts to make employees commute in, as well as an update on the agency’s dispute with the federal employee union, which has resisted its return to office plans.
• The House Oversight Committee has scheduled Hunter Biden‘s deposition for this morning, but it’s unclear whether he will show up.
• Republican leadership is holding a reception “recognizing and thanking” former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who announced he’ll be leaving Congress at the end of the year.

Outside the Beltway

In another legal case testing the limits of new abortion bans, an anonymous Kentucky woman suing to overturn her state’s law said via her lawyer that her fetus no longer had cardiac activity.

Economy

• Barring a bizarro turn of events, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in its last meeting of the year Wednesday. But Wall Street will be looking for signs about whether or not the central bank might start cutting rates next year. Chair Jerome Powell has done his best to tamp down on that speculation, but the bond markets suggest investors are expecting it will happen anyway.
• Argentina devalued its currency by 50%, the first in a series of economic “shocks” promised by its new, radical libertarian President Javier Milei.

Foreign Policy

• The Pentagon can still send Ukraine military equipment and hope that lawmakers will vote to replace the funding later. (Lawmakers say the hack could work for a month.) — Bloomberg
• Ukraine’s main mobile provider said it was the victim of a cyberattack.
• President Biden will not travel to India next month and the Quad summit, a meeting of leaders from the U.S., India, Japan and Australia, will be delayed until later in 2024. — Indian Express

Climate

The Department of Energy opened a new office that will coordinate the federal government’s use of AI and other technologies to combat climate change, Semafor’s Tim McDonnell reports.

Polls

• Eighty-three percent of Americans polled by the Democratic firm Navigator reported being concerned about political violence in the U.S. today, according to data shared ahead of publication with Semafor. Two-thirds said they’re worried about a repeat of the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
• Donald Trump leads President Biden in a head-to-head matchup 38% to 36%, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll of U.S. adults (a result that is within the margin of error). Twenty-six percent of those polled answered they weren’t sure or would consider voting for someone else.

2024

• Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. still won’t say if he plans on mounting a third-party presidential run.
• Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. showed he knows how to take a hint, endorsing Trump just days after Trump cryptically mentioned that he was concerned about Hawley’s reelection prospects.

Inside the Beltway

The Capitals and Wizards appear likely to move from downtown Washington to a new arena in Alexandria, raising fears that the already-stressed area by Capital One Arena could backslide further. Mayor Muriel Bowser offered a $500 million package to entice owner Ted Leonsis to stay on Tuesday night.

Big Read

Semafor’s Dave Weigel followed Vivek Ramaswamy on the trail in New Hampshire, where he’s wading deep into the conspiracy waters — suggesting Jan. 6 was an “inside job,” name-checking the “Great Replacement” narrative that’s been linked to mass shootings — in search of an untapped trove of MAGA voters. “There’s a screw-the-establishment mindset that’s very much prevalent out there,” said Ramaswamy strategist Michael Biundo, who worked for Rand Paul’s 2016 campaign, then for Trump. “There’s an underlying aggravation with the whole system. Vivek is more aligned with that part of the party than anybody else.”

Animal Kingdom

Domestic cats, cute though they are, kill roughly 2,000 animal species across every continent except Antarctica. The obligate carnivores are “perfectly adapted killing machines, armed with retractable claws, sharp fangs and night vision,” according to Scientific American. “We don’t really know of any other mammal that eats this many different species,” the study’s lead author said.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Israel has started flooding Hamas’ tunnels in Gaza with water, The Wall Street Journal reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: More than a dozen children in California sued the Environmental Protection Agency, accusing it of intentionally fueling the climate crisis.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Tammy Baldwin is a Democratic senator from Wisconsin. She’s speaking with Steve Clemons this afternoon at Semafor’s “State of Made in America” event. RSVP by 2p.m. today to join the conversation.

• ChatGPT seems to be “lazier” in December, and users are wondering if that’s because it took a lesson from human behavior.
• Will Iowa end the 2024 Republican contest before it even begins? The state’s gold standard poll shows Trump up big as time runs out for his opponents.
• Google’s annual Year in Search list was predictably topped by major news events — the Israel and Ukraine wars, earthquakes, and shootings — as well as surprising, lighter topics.