Principals

1. Suozzi’s roadmap
2. Russia space nuke threat
3. W.H. denies Johnson a meeting
4. US heads to Munich
5. Another top Republican quits
6. Gaza negotations latest

PDB: Biden renews gun control plea after Kansas City shooting

Trump expected in court for hearing on hush-money case … Suozzi swearing-in set for Feb. 28 … WaPo: Democrats look to Nebraska to shore up their 2024 map

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Democrats think they’ve found a winning playbook on the border

Democrats are increasingly convinced they’ve found a winning message on the border after their big victory in New York’s special election this week, write Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig, David Weigel, and Benjy Sarlin. The formula: Hit Republicans for tanking the Senate’s bipartisan border deal, while emphasizing that they themselves still support legal pathways to citizenship. Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi leaned heavily on that combo as he took back his old Long Island House district Tuesday in a contest dominated by the migrant crisis that has often bedeviled Democrats and dogged President Biden’s poll numbers. In a memo to colleagues on Wednesday, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn. called Suozzi’s campaign a “roadmap” other Democrats should follow on border politics. “Historically, we’ve hoped this issue wouldn’t show up in our campaigns. And we were pretty unsure of how to talk about it when it did,” Murphy, who was the lead Democratic negotiator on the border bill, told Semafor. “I think what the special election showed is that, when we lead confidently on this issue, we at the very least can pull to a draw with Republicans.”

U.S. intel says Russia seeking space nukes

The U.S. possesses intelligence showing that Russia is developing a space-based nuclear weapon to take out satellites, according to The New York Times and ABC News. That is the “serious national security threat,” Mike Turner, the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, warned about in a cryptic statement on Wednesday that sent Washington into a near panic. Turner’s decision to go public caught the White House off-guard and perplexed others on Capitol Hill. Without discussing anything about the intelligence, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters he had scheduled a briefing for House members of the Gang of Eight later today (all members of Congress now have access to the information). The leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee stressed the need for discretion in a bipartisan statement, warning they must be “cautious about potentially disclosing sources and methods.” Other lawmakers seemed to play down the threat: Jim Himes, D-Conn., the top Democrat on the intelligence panel, said the news was “significant” but “not a cause for panic.” Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters there was “no need for public alarm” and that officials were addressing the issue. The Washington Post columnist David Ignatius writes that the space race may be related to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites, which have propped up internet access in Ukraine.

White House says there’s no reason to negotiate with Johnson

President Biden won’t be sitting down with House Speaker Mike Johnson anytime soon to discuss border security and Ukraine aid, despite what Johnson says have been weeks of requests to do just that. “What is there to negotiate? Really? Truly? What is the one-on-one negotiation about when he’s been presented with exactly what he asked for?” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Wednesday. “He’s negotiating with himself. He’s killing bills on his own,” she said. Democrats are trying to put pressure on Johnson to take up the Senate foreign aid package, which does not include border security measures after Republicans jettisoned a bipartisan agreement.. They also aren’t alone in their suspicion that Johnson is too indecisive to credibly negotiate: Politico reported that some Republicans were also baffled by his approach. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters Wednesday that he had a “brief conversation” with Johnson on the package and described his position as a “work in progress.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell urged Johnson to bring it up for a vote. “The only thing I’ve said publicly is we’ve heard all kinds of rumors about what the vote would be on Ukraine,” he said. “Why not have it?” Meanwhile, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa. said Republicans were working on an alternative package combining Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan aid with border security that could be unveiled as soon as today.

Vice President Harris to Munich Security Conference

Top U.S. officials are headed to the Munich Security Conference, days after former President Trump rattled officials in European capitals by saying he’d encourage Russia to attack states who don’t meet defense spending targets. The comments will hang over the annual event, where Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to tout the Biden administration’s effort to rebuild alliances, and in particular strengthen NATO and provide support for Ukraine. “One thing she can say is that the NATO alliance is bigger, stronger, and more vital than it has been in 75 years,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters. Harris, who arrived in Munich this morning, will deliver a speech Friday and meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is also attending the conference as are dozens of U.S. lawmakers (though not Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.). The Trump mantle will be carried by Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, who is attending the gathering and recently told Semafor he would convey that “the Europeans need to step up.”

Rep. Mark Green to leave ‘broken’ Congress

Yet another House Republican with a powerful committee slot is leaving Congress. House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mark Green, R-Tenn. said Wednesday he “accomplished what I wanted to do” after impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and passing the House’s border bill, H.R. 2, neither of which will go anywhere in the Senate, and will not seek reelection. He was elected in 2018 and is not immediately running for another position. In announcing his exit, Green said he didn’t want to get too entrenched in the House, which he sounded extremely down on as an institution. “Our country — and our Congress — is broken beyond most means of repair,” he said. “I have come to realize our fight is not here within Washington, our fight is with Washington.” He’s the fourth Republican chair to announce their retirement, after Reps. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., and Kay Granger, R-Texas. Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., chair of the high-profile China committee, also recently announced his departure.

Diplomatic efforts over Gaza war continue

Diplomatic efforts targeting a long-term end to the Israel-Hamas war gathered steam even as a push for a short-term truce flagged. The U.S. and several Arab countries are readying a proposal that would include a firm timeline for the establishment of a Palestinian state, The Washington Post reported, while a key UAE adviser told The New York Times that regional countries were considering handing power in Gaza to an independent Palestinian leader under an Arab peacekeeping force. Hostage-exchange and ceasefire talks floundered, however, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordering his negotiators not to rejoin discussions. The two agreements — though ostensibly along different timelines — are inextricably linked: “The key is the hostage deal,” a U.S. official told the Post.

— Prashant Rao

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House Speaker Mike Johnson is leading “the most chaotic, inefficient and ineffective majority” in decades, with his leadership colleagues often starting the week not knowing what he’s thinking or what he wants to achieve. ​​“It feels like chaos. Rudderless,” one top Republican said.

Playbook: Donald Trump faces two key judicial hearings today in New York and Georgia, including an effort to remove Fulton County DA Fani Willis from his case over her relationship with a prosecutor: If it succeeds, “the former president’s criminal case could be set back months as a new set of prosecutors get up to speed on the facts of the case.”

The Early 202: Privately, Republicans are worried that their odds of keeping the House look longer after the NY-3 special election.

Axios: Special counsel Robert Hur is gaming out his testimony for a potential congressional hearing next month, working with a former Trump Justice Department official.

White House

• President Biden renewed his calls for gun control legislation in the wake of a shooting during the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl parade Wednesday night, which left one person reported dead and at least 21 others injured. “The Super Bowl is the most unifying event in America,” Biden said in a statement. “For this joy to be turned to tragedy today in Kansas City cuts deep in the American soul.”
• Biden signed an order blocking deportations of Palestinians in the U.S. for the next 18 months, citing the significant deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
• The Biden administration today is announcing $970 million in grants for airport terminal projects funded by the bipartisan infrastructure law.
• White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre turned down a job interview to run EMILY’s List late last year, saying she is “committed to the president.” — NBC
• The White House wished Speaker Mike Johnson a Happy Valentine’s Day (sort of).
• “You guys,” Biden joked when asked by a reporter what he was giving up for Lent last night.
• Special counsel Robert Hur didn’t raise Beau Biden during his interview with the president, sources told NBC News, it was Biden who first brought up his son’s death.
• With the border bill dead, ICE is facing a budget gap it may deal with by “releasing thousands of detainees and cutting detention levels from 38,000 beds to 22,000.” — Washington Post

Congress

• House leadership delayed plans to vote on a bill reauthorizing the foreign surveillance program known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, as members fight over possible amendments (like one that would add a warrant requirement for searches of data incidentally collected on U.S. citizens).
• House conservatives blocked the consideration of a bill that would expand the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, another blow to New York Republicans.
• Members of the New Democrat Coalition plan today to unveil their immigration framework they say will include some proposals in the now-defunct bipartisan Senate bill. The group is hoping to jumpstart bipartisan talks in the House.
• Reps. Chip Roy, R-Texas and Dan Bishop, R-N.C. introduced legislation on Wednesday that would give states the right to “challenge the federal government and implement laws to protect their borders.” The bill lists examples of times a state could pursue legal remedies against the federal government — if it could prove the state or its residents experienced physical or financial harm because of federal policies. — Denver Gazette
• Incoming New York Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi will be sworn in on Feb. 28. — Politico
• Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C. plans to step down from his leadership position as assistant Democratic leader, but will still run for reelection.
• Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla. and Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. are fighting over the foreign aid bill.
• The House Foreign Affairs Committee is holding a hearing today with former U.S. envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad.
• Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif. is hosting a roundtable with academics on artificial intelligence regulation.

Courts

Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Tuesday to claim that he’s “already WON” the civil fraud case over his company’s business dealings in New York, calling it “A Biden directed Political Witch Hunt for the purpose of Election Interference.”

Polls

Nearly 1 in 5 Americans believe the conspiracy theory that Taylor Swift is part of a secret effort to help President Biden win the 2024 election, a new Monmouth University poll found. More than 70% of those who hold this view are or lean Republican, and 83% said they would support Donald Trump in November.

On the Trail

• In an interview with TODAY, Nikki Haley again argued that Donald Trump is on the decline. “The problem now is he is not the same person he was in 2016. He is unhinged, he is more diminished,” she said.
• Another group, this one started by Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. in 2016, is encouraging voters to vote “uncommitted” in Michigan’s Democratic primary in an effort to pressure President Biden into changing the U.S. approach to the war in Gaza.
• Former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is advising Trump on how to run the Pentagon in a second term. — WaPo
• Trump penned a Valentine’s missive to former first lady Melania Trump in the most romantic way possible: In the form of a fundraising email thanking her for staying with him.

National Security

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke by phone with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a NATO meeting in Brussels that Austin is missing due to his recent hospitalization. “While acknowledging more work remains, Secretary Austin applauded today’s announcement by Secretary General Stoltenberg that in 2024, NATO’s European Allies will invest a collective total of $380 billion in defense. For the first time, this amounts to 2% of their combined gross domestic product,” Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said.

Foreign Policy

• The U.S. is investigating whether white phosphorus was used by Israel in Lebanon. — WSJ
• The U.K. economy shrunk for the second quarter in a row, putting it in recession territory.
• Japan also had negative growth last quarter, and fell behind Germany to become the fourth-largest economy.

Technology

• A team of Stanford graduates in their 20s has overtaken tech giants like Huawei, Nvidia, and Google DeepMind in the competitive field of using artificial intelligence to predict the weather. Startup WindBorne Systems announced Wednesday that it surpassed DeepMind, the current leader in AI weather prediction, in key benchmarks set by U.S. and European government weather models.
• Valentine’s Day tech: Artificial intelligence has become an integral part of the online world of romance, giving experts a better understanding of how the technology could change dating apps, help bridge language barriers, and manifest in the real world.
• A U.S. company, Intuitive Machines, launched a moon lander from Florida in a bid to carry out the first-ever lunar touchdown by a private business. Three earlier private attempts failed.

Media

Publishers and CEOs across the media landscape have a choice to make about AI, Lachlan Cartwright writes for the Hollywood Reporter: “Ink a deal with the AI players or fight it out in court. Do the CEOs and publishers of these trusted news brands prefer paying journalists’ salaries or attorney fees?”

Big Read

The Wall Street Journal takes a long look at the Biden administration’s options for the migrant crisis now that the bipartisan border security deal has been put through the shredder. It reports that officials are firmly against bringing back Trump-era tools like “Remain in Mexico.” But the White House is considering “further ramping up a program called Family Expedited Removal Management, under which migrant families are released into the country on ankle monitors, screened for asylum within a few weeks of arriving and deported if they don’t clear the initial standard.” In the meantime, the number of monthly border crossings fell by about half in January, ostensibly thanks to greater enforcement by Mexican police that the Biden administration has pushed for.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., who is running for Senate in California, wants a $50 per hour minimum wage.

What the Right isn’t reading: Protesters opposing Israel’s war in Gaza briefly shut down the Golden Gate Bridge.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Former GOP Rep. George Santos sent the following message to some of his former Republican colleagues (who pushed for his ouster) blaming them for costing the party a seat in Congress after Tom Suozzi’s win in the special election.

• New York has elected a replacement for George Santos.
• China is allegedly using fake local news sites to push out propaganda.
• The U.S. Senate approves more funding to Ukraine and Israel.