Principals

1. Harris’ battleground edge
2. Israel aid polling
3. ‘Central Park Five’ at DNC
4. Business polling
5. Trump messaging
6. Ilhan Omar wins
7. Russia diverts troops

PDB: CEOs face tricky choice in 2024 election

Inflation data out this morning … Japan’s Kishida to step down … Politico: Biden miffed at Pelosi, Schumer, Obama

Harris leads or ties Trump in most battlegrounds: Cook Political Report

Vice President Harris leads or ties Donald Trump in all but one battleground state — Nevada — according to the latest Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s Swing State Project survey, a big improvement over President Biden’s performance in May. “Harris’ success in closing the gap is driven by her consolidation of the Democratic base, and increased support among independent voters,” Walter writes in her analysis. Harris’ favorability has risen 13 points since May, according to the survey, which was conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group and polled likely voters across seven battlegrounds in late July and early August. An equal percentage — 49% — view her favorably and unfavorably. Her net favorability score has increased substantially among Democrats (by 20 points) and Black women (by 30 points). Meanwhile, Trump’s favorability has remained roughly the same, with 47% viewing him favorably and 52% unfavorably.

Poll: Democrats and independents want conditions on Israel aid

Polls conducted for the Institute for Middle East Understanding this month found Democrats and independents viewing candidates more positively if they cut off military aid to Israel. The surveys, conducted by YouGov and shared first with Semafor, asked voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona how they’d feel if President Biden secured a ceasefire, and if a Democratic nominee wanted to “withhold additional weapons to Israel for committing human rights abuses.” Across the states, 34% of 1,492 respondents said they’d be more likely to support a candidate who’d limit weapons to Israel, and just 7% said they’d be less likely. “If the Democrats want Vice President Harris to be the strongest nominee possible going into November, then they should be demanding that President Biden stop the flow of weapons to Israel and secure a permanent ceasefire immediately,” said IMEU Policy Project Executive Director Margaret DeReus.

— David Weigel

‘Central Park Five’ member invited to DNC for convention speech

Yusef Salaam, the New York City councilman who was wrongly imprisoned as a member of the “Central Park Five,” has been invited to speak at the Democratic National Convention next week in Chicago, Semafor’s David Weigel, Kadia Goba, and Benjy Sarlin report. Democratic officials have been in communication with Salaam, sources said, but it’s unclear if plans have been locked in. It’s possible other members of the “Central Park Five” join Salaam onstage. Their presence would draw attention to Donald Trump’s refusal to apologize for calling for the death penalty for the group of Black and Latino teenagers who were wrongly convicted of rape in New York City in 1989. Salaam mocked Trump when he was arraigned in his hush-money case last year. Other, more expected speakers include President Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill and Hillary Clinton, but the DNC hasn’t released a formal program.

Americans want businesses to butt out of public policy

A declining number of Americans believe that businesses should take public stances on current events, according to a new survey from Bentley University and Gallup. Less than four in 10 US adults (38%) believe businesses should do so, down from 48% two years ago. The share has declined more than 20 percentage points among Democrats — the most likely group to say businesses should weigh in — and 6 points among independents, while the share of Republicans saying so has inched up to 22%. Americans’ views vary depending on the issue: majorities want to hear from businesses on climate change, mental health, and diversity, equity, and inclusion — all figures driven largely by high support among Democrats.

GOP hopes Trump can stay on message

Can Donald Trump stay on message? Republicans hope so, but aren’t counting on it, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports. A number of Republicans have publicly and privately worried Trump’s freelancing has undermined the campaign’s efforts to define Kamala Harris early on. Some breathed a sigh of relief following his Monday night interview with Elon Musk. “I thought he did very well by focusing on policy and demonstrating he was able to have a conversation at a level that seems almost impossible to imagine or expect of Kamala Harris,” Vivek Ramaswamy said. But Republicans know Trump is unlikely to last 83 days in a suddenly tight race without returning to his usual self on a regular basis. One former campaign advisor questioned whether Trump is “willing to adjust” and suggested the campaign elevate “fans and surrogates” to offset any damage.

Ilhan Omar easily wins primary

Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar rolled past a moderate primary challenger on Tuesday, one week after pro-Israel groups helped unseat fellow progressive Israel critic Cori Bush in Missouri. Those groups (AIPAC, Democratic Majority for Israel) stayed out of Omar’s race against Don Samuels, a former city councilman who nearly beat the congresswoman in 2022. Omar ran more aggressively this year, running TV ads (which she skipped two years ago) and attacking Samuels’ support from Republicans who wanted her gone. With most votes counted, Omar led by 13 points, ensuring her re-election in a safely Democratic district. No other incumbent faced a serious challenge yesterday, and outside Minneapolis, Democrats stayed united. In Wisconsin, where the GOP-led legislature hoped to pass two ballot measures that would have restricted Gov. Tony Evers’s power to spend federal money, both failed by double digits.

— David Weigel

Moscow diverts troops over Kyiv push

Russia diverted troops from Ukraine to defend itself against Kyiv’s incursion into its territory, as President Biden called the operation a “real dilemma” for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine has not publicly outlined its goals for the surprise incursion — which Kyiv says has resulted in it taking control of about 400 square miles (1,000 square kilometers) of Russian land — but analysts have variously suggested it wants to boost domestic morale, draw Moscow’s forces away from frontlines in eastern Ukraine, and win a bargaining chip in any future negotiations to end the war. Kyiv’s battlefield successes came with European nations ramping up their own military capacity: Poland signed a $10 billion deal to buy nearly 100 Apache helicopters, underscoring how the continent, once divided over debt and migration, is now focused on security.

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Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has emerged as a fundraising force for Democrats this cycle.

Playbook: International Brotherhood of Teamsters President Sean O’Brien, who spoke at the Republican convention, criticized Donald Trump’s comments to Elon Musk about firing workers who strike. “Firing workers for organizing, striking, and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism,” he said.

WaPo: House Democrats are eyeing voting rights as their first legislative move if they win the majority in November. Vice President Harris is expected to make voting rights and gun control priorities on the campaign trail, as well as paid family leave and the child tax credit.

Axios: Harris wants to distance herself from President Biden on economic issues on which he’s unpopular, like inflation.

White House

• White House officials will host the first-ever “creator economy conference” today with 100 digital creators to discuss challenges and opportunities facing the industry. President Biden, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo, White House domestic policy adviser Neera Tanden, and White House science adviser Arati Prabhakar are participating.
• Biden will call Panama’s new president, José Raúl Mulino, this afternoon.
• Hunter Biden sought help from the State Department for Ukrainian gas company Burisma while he was a board member and Joe Biden was vice president. — NYT

Congress

• Vice President Harris relies on a handful of Senate Democrats as confidants: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto, Cory Booker, Laphonza Butler, and Alex Padilla. — Axios
• Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., is introducing a bill to take the Secret Service’s financial crimes investigative mission and transfer it to the Treasury Department. — Axios
• Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Md., experienced a “mild” stroke on Sunday night, his office said, adding that he is responding well to treatment with no lingering symptoms. He is expected to resume his normal schedule next week.

Outside the Beltway

New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft donated to GOP Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dave McCormick.

Business

Starbucks replaced its CEO Laxman Narasimhan with Chipotle Mexican Grill chief Brian Niccol.

Courts

The Department of Justice is considering a bid to break up Google after last week’s landmark ruling that the tech giant had monopolized the online search market. — Bloomberg

Polls

Donald Trump leads Vice President Harris by 5 percentage points in Florida, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV poll of likely voters in the state.

On the Trail

• Vice President Harris and Tim Walz are planning to hold a rally on Tuesday in Milwaukee during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. — NYT
• Democrats will stream their convention vertically on TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. — Axios
• The Harris campaign said the FBI informed it last month it was the target of “a foreign actor influence operation.”
• The United Auto Workers filed charges of unfair labor practices against Donald Trump and Elon Musk following their conversation on X Monday night, after Trump complimented Musk for threatening to fire workers who go on strike.
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus will host a panel of female governors at the Democratic convention. — The Hill
• Walz defended his military record during a solo campaign appearance.
• Third parties were having a moment, but then Harris showed up, Semafor’s David Weigel reports.

National Security

The Pentagon plans to remove the lidar sensor company Hesai from a blacklist of companies linked to China’s military. — FT

Foreign Policy

• The US has approved $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel, including dozens of warplanes and air-to-air missiles.
• Western leaders denounced the visit by far-right Israeli minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to Jerusalem’s most contested site.
• The Biden administration is resuming shipments of bombs to Saudi Arabia that were placed on hold in 2021 over the war in Yemen. — WSJ
• Israel added new conditions to its list of requirements for a Gaza ceasefire deal in July, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claims he has not done so. — NYT
• Iranian officials said only a Gaza ceasefire would prevent retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas’ top political official in Tehran late last month. — Reuters
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed a trip to the Middle East. — Axios

Technology

The European Commission said that president Ursula von der Leyen did not sanction the letter one of its commissioners sent to Elon Musk warning him over his interview with Donald Trump.

Media

The former local police chief who raided a small Kansas newspaper last year has been formally charged with interfering with the judicial process, a felony with a possible sentence of up to 23 months in prison.

Big Read

An increasing number of business CEOs and financiers are finding themselves in a tricky position this presidential election cycle: without an obvious candidate to vote for, The Wall Street Journal reports. Executives are worried about Donald Trump’s tariffs and prefer the left on social issues, but at the same time want lower taxes, less regulation, and a candidate who embraces free trade. “In the eyes of the financial class, there is, increasingly, a difference between Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0,” one Republican consultant said. “Where there was once intrigue, there is increasingly apprehension.”

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A congressional investigator resigned from the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s GOP-led probe of the Afghanistan withdrawal, saying the panel is suffering from “investigative paralysis.”

What the Right isn’t reading: An abortion rights initiative made it onto Missouri’s ballot in November.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Adam Schiff is a Democratic congressman from California.

• Kamala Harris campaign races to stay one step ahead of online backlash.
• Android phones get an AI upgrade.
• Conservative indie publishing boom turns to bust.