Principals

1. The world on edge
2. WH braces for Iran retaliation
3. Strikes weigh on Congress
4. Tax cut action
5. Fink on MAGA accounts
6. State’s Europe campaign
7. Europe backs more defense $

PDB: Majority supports Trump’s Panama Canal play

Trump meets with natsec team at 1 pm … Bloomberg: Satellite images raise doubt about claims nuclear sites were destroyed … Israel announces strikes on Iranian government targets

Iran response carries security, economic threats

After the US’ strikes on Iran, the prospect of retaliation has the globe on edge. US troops in the region are on high alert for potential attacks by Tehran or its proxies. Iranian leaders have also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz — through which 30% of the globe’s oil supply passes — which could have dire consequences amid broader economic uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs; Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been lobbying China to help keep this from happening. Gulf nations who for months had sought to broker nuclear talks between the US and Iran are calling for calm and restraint, as is Europe, while United Nations chief António Guterres called Trump’s move a “dangerous escalation.” Trump — who hinted Sunday night he’s open to regime change — is expected to appear at tomorrow’s NATO summit, where he’ll likely face questions from nervous Europeans.

White House braces for Iran retaliation

The Trump administration is bracing for potential retaliation after the White House authorized strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. The primary concern remains that Iran might target US personnel stationed throughout the Middle East, one person familiar with internal administration conversations told Semafor; in the hours after the strike, the State Department issued advisories for personnel in countries in the region. The administration is also wondering how long Israel can sustain its attacks against Iran, particularly if the country declines negotiations. Threats like “low-level” cyberattacks and violence within the US are also on the minds of administration officials, who have urged Iran to shift back to diplomacy while issuing plenty of warnings against a response.

— Shelby Talcott

Iran strikes test Congress

Most Republicans are falling in line behind Trump’s nuclear strikes, while Democratic leaders are complaining the president didn’t seek congressional authorization or read them in. There are a few in the middle. Among them: Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, who told Semafor that “Trump has legal precedent on his side” but policymakers must “restore the war powers framework” — a vote that’s coming to the Senate soon. JD Vance is setting the tone for populist Republicans like Davidson: In TV appearances, Vance insisted “this is not going to be some long, drawn-out thing.” Not everyone is buying it. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., drew fire from Trump and some of his top advisers when he said “my side of the MAGA base is … exhausted” — a sentiment echoed by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. The administration will brief senators on Iran on Tuesday.

— Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett

GOP’s tax cuts head to Senate floor

Senate Republicans will receive an update on their tax-cuts plan on Monday evening, according to people familiar with the meeting, and they could take the bill to the floor as soon as Wednesday. Monday will be a key gut check for GOP leaders after a whirlwind of changes and ongoing negotiations aimed at passing the bill before the impending recess. Senators from Idaho and Montana oppose the party’s public lands sale proposal and talks continue on how to resolve that (the GOP can only lose three votes on the floor). The Senate parliamentarian ruled that provisions defunding the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and increasing the state share of SNAP payments were ineligible for inclusion, but allowed an effort to stop states from developing their own AI regulations to stay in at a 50-vote threshold. Still, some Republicans want to take it out.

— Burgess Everett

Can we reconnect a generation? A mental health crisis is gripping young people, with rates of depression, anxiety, and loneliness rising. As social bonds fray and digital life deepens isolation, experts are sounding the alarm and demanding action.

Join Daniel Zoltani, Executive Director of the Whole Foods Market Foundation; Sara DeWitt, Senior Vice President and General Manager of PBS KIDS; January Contreras, Former Assistant Secretary for the Administration for Children and Families, US Department of Health and Human Services; and Steve Bullock, Former Governor of Montana, as Semafor explores the complex drivers of youth wellbeing, highlighting opportunities to rebuild social ties, foster resilience, and develop lasting strategies to improve the mental health of young people.

July 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

BlackRock’s Fink backs MAGA accounts

BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink said he supports the GOP’s proposal to create investment accounts for children at birth, now dubbed “MAGA accounts” — a twist for the lifelong Democratic Party supporter who’s been pushing Washington for stronger policies to promote retirement planning. “An investment account for every American at birth is a powerful investment in our country’s future. Ownership creates connection,” Fink told Semafor in a statement. BlackRock and the Bipartisan Policy Center are releasing a report today offering recommendations to policymakers and employers to address impending shortfalls in retirement accounts for many Americans. The report backs the MAGA account concept to fund $1,000 in tax-advantaged investment accounts for every newborn baby with a Social Security number, and also suggests policymakers further expand access to retirement plans in the workplace and through private accounts.

— Rachel Witkowski

State Department’s European campaign

A young, ideological State Department official visited Paris and London in order to oppose European speech regulations, Semafor’s Ben Smith reports. Samuel Samson — who had written that Europeans should act like the US’ “civilizational allies” — also argued with the leaders of the group Reporters Without Borders in Paris over issues of speech and over Samson’s support of the right-wing leader Marine Le Pen. “Everything was weird and troublesome about this visit by State Department officials — its purpose, the definition of freedom of expression that was the basis for this ‘investigation,’ and the strong bias of the questioning in favor of Europe’s far-right parties,” said Pierre Haski, a leading French commentator who chairs Reporters Without Borders. It was, he said, “as if liberal democracies in Western Europe were now to be treated at best as suspicious, if not outright adversaries.”

Europe backs greater defense spending

Europeans overwhelmingly support increasing defense spending, polling showed ahead of a key NATO meeting this week.  Half of the respondents in a European Council on Foreign Relations survey said their country needs to boost defense spending, with just 24% opposing the move. NATO member states agreed Sunday to raise their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, as demanded by the US, though Spain opted out; the new target is more than double what most currently spend. However stagnating growth across the region means many will struggle to invest more. “Russia was able to put Europe on the back foot precisely because of the continent’s failure to accept that economic security… is a prerequisite for national security,” Hadley Gamble, Al-Arabiya’s chief international anchor, wrote in a Semafor column.

— Jeronimo Gonzalez

Andrew Friedman is joining Semafor as General Manager & Head of Public Affairs. Reporting to Chief Revenue Officer Rachel Oppenheim, he will serve as Semafor’s most senior commercial leader in Washington, building relationships across government, corporate, and advocacy sectors as the company deepens its foothold in the capital and expands its public affairs business. Friedman previously held senior roles at Google, POLITICO and Axios.

Uncommon bonds: Tracking abductions of Ukrainian children

Russia is believed to have abducted tens of thousands of Ukrainian children over the course of its war on Ukraine. Backed by State Department funding, a program at Yale University has provided the main channel for information on the children, tracking their whereabouts using satellite imagery and biometric data. However, funding for the initiative is quickly running out, a result of DOGE-driven cuts imposed earlier this year. A bipartisan group of lawmakers led by Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, is pushing to restore funding for the program in order to allow it to complete its work, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant writes. “We cannot sit by as Vladimir Putin acts like a ruthless dictator and steals children to try and build up Mother Russia,” Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., one of the signatories, said in a statement.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: A dozen House Democrats who are also veterans are signing onto a letter announcing support for a War Powers Act resolution.

Playbook: The Democrat-aligned group Majority Forward is launching a $1 million ad campaign against Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, focused on the tax cut bill.

Axios: President Trump’s claim last week about deciding on an Iran strike within two weeks “was a headfake,” according to one adviser. “He knew the media couldn’t resist amplifying it. He knew the Iranians might think he was bluffing. Well, everyone was wrong.”

WaPo: Two House seats in Wisconsin due to be redistricted may hold the key to control of the chamber in the midterms.

White House

• White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller has outsized authority in the Trump administration, especially on immigration policy, with some agency officials skipping their Cabinet secretaries and instead reporting directly to him. — WSJ

Congress

• A new analysis of the Senate GOP reconciliation package using an accounting quirk favored by some Republicans found it will cost $441 billion (relative to the House bill, which was found to cost $3.8 trillion, without said accounting quirk).
• The House is set to reopen painful faultlines this week as it returns to vote on resolutions that would condemn the shootings of Minnesota state legislators and protests against immigration raids in California, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller writes in.

Outside the Beltway

• The man accused of fatally shooting two Minnesota lawmakers wrote in a “rambling, conspiratorial” letter that he believed Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz wanted him to kill Sen. Amy Klobuchar. — Minnesota Star Tribune

Polls

• President Trump’s push to reassert US influence over the Panama Canal is relatively popular. Fifty-five percent of Americans support the US pursuing the Panama Canal in order to counter Chinese influence, according to the 2025 Reagan Institute Summer Survey. Meanwhile, almost half (47%) of those polled support the US pursuing territorial expansion to Greenland.

Courts

• Mahmoud Khalil, the Columbia campus activist recently released after a three-month detention, said President Trump had inadvertently advanced the movement for Palestinian liberation by drawing attention to the cause.
• A judge is ordering the release of wrongly deported Maryland man Kilmar Ábrego García, though ICE is expected to hold him in custody and may attempt to deport him again.

National Security

• During last week’s G7 summit, an Iranian representative directly threatened to instigate terror attacks within the US if the US bombed Iran. — NBC

Technology

• Reddit is considering using World ID, the verification system based on iris-scanning Orbs whose parent company was co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti scooped.

Media

• The populist and interventionist wings of the GOP are squaring off on the airwaves: Steve Bannon has begun attacking Fox News as “propaganda” for its favorable coverage of Israeli and US strikes on Iran, Semafor’s Ben Smith reports.

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

And Graph Massara, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Greg Casar is a Democratic congressman from Texas who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.