Principals

1. Polling Gen Z doomerism
2. No US shift on Israel
3. GOP’s reconciliation plans
4. A Republican’s vision for defense
5. Trump trial closing arguments
6. De Niro bookends Trump
7. Gonzales wins

PDB: Gaza pier damaged, aid deliveries paused.

Biden to launch Black voters coalition in Philadelphia … Another State Dept resignation over Gaza… WSJ: Chinese companies rebranding as American to sidestep restrictions

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

The kids are really not alright, Democratic pollster finds

Young voters overwhelmingly believe that almost all politicians are corrupt and that the country will end up worse off than when they were born, according to new polling from Democratic firm Blueprint obtained exclusively by Semafor’s Shelby Talcott. Some 64% of 18-30-year-olds backed the statement that “America is in decline”; 65% agreed “nearly all” politicians are corrupt and profit off their power; and 51% said they were happier before the pandemic. “These statements blow me away, the scale of these numbers with young voters,” Evan Roth Smith, Blueprint’s lead pollster, told Semafor. “Young voters do not look at our politics and see any good guys. They see a dying empire led by bad people.” The sour outlook could help explain Biden’s struggles with these voters, who don’t seem to be in the mood to celebrate the status quo.

White House says Rafah blast doesn’t cross Biden’s red line

The White House is not shifting its policy on Israel following the strike on a Rafah camp over the weekend. The Pentagon said military aid continues to flow and US officials denied that Israel’s movements — which as of Monday included tanks entering the center of the town — represented a major ground operation that would trigger President Biden to suspend certain weapons deliveries. The White House’s John Kirby defined a major ground operation as thousands of troops “moving in a maneuvered, concentrated, coordinated way against a variety of targets on the ground.” The Israeli military claimed the fire at the camp was started by a secondary blast. Vice President Harris and other US officials have expressed outrage at the loss of life. US-made bombs were used in the strike on the camp, according to The New York Times.

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The GOP starts mapping its reconciliation game plan

House GOP leaders are telling their members to brush up on the Senate’s rules ahead of a potential legislative sprint in 2025. Republicans are preparing to use the budget reconciliation process, which skirts the filibuster, to pass an expansive agenda if they can win a trifecta come November covering taxes, the border and energy provisions. In an interview with Semafor’s Kadia Goba, Majority Leader Steve Scalise says he’s told committee leaders to work on proposals that will be fair game under the maneuver’s strict rules. It’s unclear exactly how much of their agenda will be fair game: Scalise says that while Republicans while “try to push the envelope” with reconciliation on border and energy policy, they were also eying some more sure bets like wall funding and reopening the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.

Key Republican proposes historic defense buildup

The top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee plans to propose a massive military build up that would take US defense spending to 5% of the economy in five to seven years, a share almost unseen since the end of the Cold War. At a time of growing GOP isolationism, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., is making the case for a return to the party’s traditional hawkishness. His new blueprint, shared with Semafor and laid out in a New York Times op-ed, also calls for permanently stationing an armored brigade combat team in Poland; increasing rotational force deployments to eastern Europe; considering the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula; loosening restrictions on foreign military sales to Gulf nations; building a 355-ship naval fleet; fielding new air defense capabilities; and resuming domestic uranium enrichment for the AUKUS submarine pact.

Trump’s fate is in the jury’s hands now

The defense and prosecution finished their closing arguments in the Trump trial during a marathon session on Tuesday, with key witness Michael Cohen’s credibility in the crosshairs. “You cannot convict President Trump of any crime beyond a reasonable doubt on the words of Michael Cohen,” defense attorney Todd Blanche said, pointing to his history of perjury, his personal antipathy toward Trump, and questions raised during cross-examination about an alleged phone call with Trump. The prosecution’s response — yes, Cohen is a vindictive liar, but then what does that say about Trump? “We didn’t pick him up at the witness store,” prosecutor Joshua Steinglass said. “The defendant chose Michael Cohen as his fixer because he was willing to lie and cheat on his behalf.” Judge Juan Merchan will issue instructions to the jury today ahead of deliberations.

Robert De Niro counterprograms the Trump trial

Actor Robert De Niro and former Capitol Police officers led a surprise press conference for the Biden campaign outside the Trump trial — to talk about Jan. 6. The event featured De Niro jawing with pro-Trump hecklers and denouncing Trump as a “tyrant” and “clown” who threatened democracy. Biden’s campaign has largely avoided discussing Trump’s legal issues, Shelby Talcott writes, and some observers were a bit confused seeing them show up in person only to avoid addressing the elephant in the courtroom again. “We’re not here today because of what’s going on over there,” Michael Tyler, the communications director for the Biden campaign, told reporters. “We’re here today because you all are here.”

Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales survives primary challenge

Rep. Tony Gonzales survived a challenge from his right in Tuesday’s GOP primary runoff, narrowly topping gun enthusiast and YouTuber Brandon Herrera. Prominent conservatives such as House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good, R-Va. and Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla. backed Herrera while Gonzales was endorsed by House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. and Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Gonzales, whose district stretches between San Antonio and El Paso, bucked hardliners by voting for Johnson’s foreign aid package. Meanwhile, Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan won a tough primary challenge after leading the 2023 impeachment of MAGA-aligned state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton, who was acquitted in a Senate trial, later set out to have those who voted against him removed. Donald Trump had endorsed challenger David Covey, an energy consultant and former congressional aide.

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Beltway Newsletters

Playbook: Court watchers expect jury deliberations in Donald Trump’s Manhattan trial to move “very quickly,” and Trump’s team is holding out hope for a hung jury.

WaPo: In order to keep the Senate majority, Democrats will need to win races in two states — Montana and Ohio — that Trump is very likely to win. “It can be done and we’re confident that it will, but it is more difficult that it has been historically,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Gary Peters.

Axios: The share of voters who believe the US is “on the wrong track” is at a record high.

White House

• President Biden is campaigning today in Philadelphia.
• The White House says it won’t support US sanctions on the International Criminal Court over its war crimes case against Israel after all. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the move would not be “not an effective or appropriate” approach but the administration would work with lawmakers on other options, without divulging specifics. Secretary of State Antony Blinken had indicated he was willing to work with Congress to craft a sanctions package last week.
• The Biden administration’s special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism, Deborah Lipstadt, met with representatives from Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, TikTok, and X last week and urged them to do more to curb antisemitic content on their platforms. — Bloomberg
• The White House unveiled a new plan to modernize the electric grid.

Congress

• Rep. Joe Neguse, D-Colo., is seeing his stock rise in the Democratic Party. — NBC
• A group of senators led by Sens. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill. and Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska also met with Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, this week.

Outside the Beltway

• New York state Sen. Jessica Ramos refused to sponsor legislation that would allow Mets owner Steve Cohen to move forward with plans to build an $8 billion casino complex near Citi Field in Queens.
• Harvard said it will no longer take positions on issues that aren’t relevant “to the core function of the university.”

Economy

US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in May after falling for three straight months due to optimism about the labor market. However, concerns over inflation continued while many households expect higher interest rates over the next year.

Courts

• Judge Aileen Cannon rejected special counsel Jack Smith’s request for a limited gag order on Donald Trump in his classified documents case.
• A federal appeals court panel rejected an argument that Washington, DC residents are too biased to decide cases related to the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
• Some Trump allies are pinning their hopes for a hung jury in his Manhattan trial on a single juror who they think has been making friendly eye contact in court, The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo reports.
• A couple in Fairfax County, Virginia in February 2021 called the police on Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s wife after encounters with her allegedly became increasingly unpleasant. However, that was weeks after an inverted American flag, which is seen as a sign of distress, was taken down and after the Jan. 6 riot. It also appears to contradict Justice Alito’s assertion that the flag was flown in response to insults by his neighbors. — NYT

Polls

The Biden campaign’s ambitious quest to make “Project 2025” a household name is still a work in progress, according to polling shared with Semafor. Less than one-quarter of voters told Democratic pollster Navigator Research they’d heard “a lot” or “some” about the proposal for “reshaping the executive branch,” and even fewer indicated they knew about it with an alternate wording that tied it to the conservative Heritage Foundation, according to new research shared early with Semafor. Democrats have frequently cited the independent project by conservative groups to prep the next GOP administration in recent months, especially its suggestion that Trump invoke the Comstock Act to crack down on abortion should he take office.

On the Trail

• The super PAC backing House Democrats plans to spend $100 million on ads and voter mobilization around abortion rights this election cycle. — WSJ
• The DNC will get around missing a ballot deadline in Ohio by nominating President Biden virtually ahead of the August convention in Chicago.
• Democrats are afraid that Donald Trump choosing Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., as his running mate would give the Republican campaign an advantage with Hispanic voters. — Vanity Fair
• Biden and Vice President Harris will launch “Black Voters for Biden-Harris” today during a campaign stop at Girard College in Philadelphia, seeking to shore up support among a key constituency. They’ll be joined by prominent Black politicians, including Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Congressional Black Caucus Chair Steven Horsford, according to the Biden campaign. Biden will also attend an event with the Black Chamber of Commerce.
• Trump endorsed Virginia state Sen. John McGuire in the primary against House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good, saying that Good “turned his back on our incredible movement” by endorsing Ron DeSantis in the presidential race.

National Security

Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas said that some migrants arriving at the US southern border are attempting to “game” the asylum system. — CBS

Foreign Policy

• The pier on the coast of Gaza that the Pentagon spent $320 million building was damaged due to rough weather. Aid deliveries have been paused while the pier is repaired. White House national security spokesman John Kirby insisted the pier is “absolutely” still a good option to get aid into Gaza, but acknowledged the challenges posed by the seas. “Mother nature has a say here,” he told reporters.
• French President Emmanuel Macron said Ukraine should be able to hit sites in Russia where missiles are fired from.
• The US tapped a new representative for the American Institute in Taiwan.

Climate

• The EPA is announcing the recipients of $900 million in grants through a program to replace old school buses with new “clean” buses. They span about 530 school districts and the program will facilitate the purchase of over 3,400 new buses, according to the Biden administration.
• The Biden administration is considering a new mandate to require millions of new homes to have efficient heating and cooling systems. — Politico

Technology

OpenAI is forming a safety council.

Religion

Pope Francis has apologized after he was quoted using a slur for gay men to affirm the Vatican’s ban on gay priests in a closed-door meeting with Italian bishops last week.

Big Read

Chicago, which gave birth to the skyscraper in the late 19th century, is trying to keep many of its office towers from dying off, The Wall Street Journal says. The Windy City is going beyond other cities in providing government funds to convert obsolete office space into hotels and apartments, and progressive Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson recently signed on. “There are fewer landlords competing for tenants because so many buildings are in this zombie state,” developer Michael Reschke was quoted as saying. Johnson’s main revenue push has been a $1.25 billion bond issuance for affordable housing and economic development that has received wide business backing. “He does not want to be mayor who loses downtown,” said David Reifman, who was planning and development commissioner under former Mayor Rahm Emanuel.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: GOP Senate candidate Larry Hogan pitches himself as a centrist in a new campaign aid, saying Senate Republicans “can’t count on my vote.”

What the Right isn’t reading: A woman who reportedly interned for Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., was indicted on charges related to Jan. 6.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Harry Dunn is a former US Capitol Police officer who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in Maryland.