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The Hot List

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Updated May 16, 2024, 3:55pm EDT

Semafor’s subjective, dynamic ranking of the elections you should be paying attention to right now — based on their urgency, their importance, and their connection to the great political forces shaping our world.

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1
France – Le Pen successor
Presidential election in 2027

Marine Le Pen’s potential successor is polling competitively for the French presidency. Appearing ahead of or tied with potential rivals in run-off polling, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella has been mentioned nearly-exclusively as the next figure in line to lead France’s far-right National Rally into a presidential election in the event that Le Pen steps aside. That prospect seems unlikely for now, as Le Pen herself polls even higher, and could see her best opportunity yet in an election that is now only three years away. Bardella, for his part, will be heading the party’s European Parliament list in next month’s election, which will gauge his effectiveness as the crown prince of the French far-right.

ArrowFrance last appeared on the Hot List at #4, with Macron's movement losing ground to resurgent Socialists.
Joey Pfeifer
2
Venezuela – Meet the opposition
Presidential election on July 28, 2024

Venezuela’s opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez is a political unknown even within his country. After two successive opposition nominees were barred from seeking the presidency, Gonzalez will be the main candidate standing against President Nicolas Maduro in the July ballot. A retired diplomat until recently, Gonzalez reportedly had “no political ambitions” according to a friend quoted by The New York Times. The opposition is banking on his status as a “consensus seeker” to solidify his support, because “he doesn’t offend anybody” per that same friend.

ArrowVenezuela last appeared on the Hot List at #7, featuring the centrist "Pencil Alliance."
3
India – Soft fakes
Legislative elections through June 2024

AI-generated content is being used to resurrect deceased politicians in India’s general election, hoping to leverage their popularity for election gains. As reported by Rest of World, actor-politician Vijay Vasanth employed deepfake technology to craft an endorsement from his father, who once held the seat he’s campaigning for. The story has multiple parallels across the country, in a campaign period in which AI-generated material has become a significant factor — and concern, as election clashes get nasty with manipulated content featuring political rivals.

ArrowIndia last appeared on the Hot List at #2, with a broad look at AI-generated material in the election campaign.
Joey Pfeifer
4
Mozambique – Power trade
Presidential election on October 9, 2024

Mozambique’s ruling party has officially nominated a successor to President Filipe Nyusi. Daniel Chapo, the governor of Inhambane province, would be the country’s first “non-combatant” president, distinct from the guerilla fighter backgrounds that have characterized Mozambique’s leaders since independence. Described as a “former radio announcer” and “relatively unknown figure” in national politics, Chapo is said to have been “handpicked by Nyusi,” according to Mozambican political analyst Marisa Lourenco, likely ensuring some level of continuity in governance.

ArrowMozambique last appeared on the Hot List at #7, looking at the ruling party's potential struggles heading into the next election.
5
Panama – Tech mayor
Local elections held May 5, 2024

A tech entrepreneur who created his own Game Boy game for his campaign was elected mayor of Panama’s capital. Mayer Mizrachi, known for his attempt to create a competitor to WhatsApp, came up first place in a crowded field that included the incumbent. Mizrachi founded the electric car retailer GeekyMotors which served as a supplier for Tesla cars, has spent time in prison on fraud charges that were eventually dropped, which he attributed to political targeting, and has a family connection to former President Ricardo Martinelli, who himself has faced numerous legal issues over the years.

Panama last appeared on the Hot List at #5, featuring independent gains in national legislative elections.

Emma Roshan
6
Canada – Conservative factor
Provincial elections on October 19, 2024

Support for Canada’s Conservative Party has soared in British Columbia, potentially displacing the incumbent NDP government in the province. For decades, the Conservatives were not a factor in British Columbia’s provincial politics – until now, it seems. According to the latest poll, Tories there stand just above the NDP, which currently holds British Columbia as one of its only provincial governments in Canada. A recent name change for the BC Liberal Party, once the dedicated center-right opposition to the NDP in the province despite their label, may have provided an opening for the Conservatives to stake a claim on their brand.

ArrowCanada last appeared on the Hot List at #9, with foreign intelligence allegations of election meddling.
7
North Macedonia – Nationalist swell
Presidential election held May 8, 2024

North Macedonia’s nationalist VMRO party romped in elections this month, potentially setting back the country’s naming dispute with Greece. Presidential winner Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova has attracted international attention for her use of “Macedonia” over “North Macedonia” on the campaign trail, in clear disregard of the naming agreement that helped move the country towards European accession. Likewise, VMRO won nearly a majority, shifting national politics firmly to the right, and potentially throwing off the country’s course into the EU.

ArrowNorth Macedonia last appeared on the Hot List at #5, taking a look at the presidential run-off.
Emma Roshan
8
Spain – Catalan Alliance
Regional election on May 12, 2024

A new far-right party has emerged in Catalonia, springing from a small-town mayoral win. The “Catalan Alliance” won the mayoralty of Ripoli in municipal elections held last year, and is now polling between 3% and 4% across the region. It’s not much, but it could be enough to enter Catalonia’s Parliament, a prospect which has already prompted numerous parties to draw red lines around the group. The Alliance’s most prominent figure, Ripoli Mayor Silvia Orrols, was described by Politico as an emerging “figurehead for an uncompromising brand of anti-immigrant Catalan nationalism.”

ArrowSpain last appeared on the Hot List at #5, with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez deciding to remain in office.
9
Japan – Become a hermit
Legislative elections in 2025

After a gaffe, the Governor of Shizuoka prefecture in Japan says he is leaving politics to “become a hermit,” and “talk to little birds in the forest.” Heita Kawakatsu, who has been in office since 2009, drew controversy for comments demeaning farmworkers, for which he announced his resignation. At a press conference for his final day in office, Kawakatsu shot down chatter about potential further moves in politics, declaring his intentions towards hermithood and befriending forest animals.

ArrowJapan last appeared on the Hot List at #8, with by-election losses for the LDP.
Emma Roshan
THE BIG READ
Reuters/Amanda Perobelli

In the shadow campaign to succeed Brazil’s president, Guilherme Boulos has a chance to cut to the front. That’s if he can pull off a shock win in Sao Paulo against conservative incumbent Ricardo Nunes. In Americas Quarterly, Nick Burns labels Boulos, who previously ran for mayor in 2020 as well as the presidency in 2018, a possible “next big star” for the Brazilian left. Becoming mayor of Sao Paulo would cement that claim, and polls point to an opening for a candidate who has long positioned himself as a socialist activist — though, as the article points out, the Boulos campaign is attempting to shore up a more “moderate” image in this election, with outreach to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s Workers’ Party and appeals to evangelicals.

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