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The Hot List

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Updated May 19, 2024, 1:46pm EDT

Semafor’s subjective, dynamic ranking of the elections you should be paying attention to right now — based on their urgency, their importance, and their connection to the great political forces shaping our world.

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1
Mexico – Scientist president
Presidential election on June 2, 2024

Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to be Mexico’s next president, has a background as a scientist — but how much will it factor into her presidency? Though Sheinbaum is an environmental scientist, it’s hard to say how much her presidency would shift course from current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrandor’s embrace of oil and gas, despite her career impressing full well the dangers of climate change. While Sheinbaum helped to author the UN’s 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, her statements indicate that she’ll stay the course on AMLO’s energy policy, though she also stated she “believes in science, technology, and renewable energy.”

ArrowMexico last appeared on the Hot List at #2, looking at high levels of election violence in this cycle.
Emma Roshan
2
India – Dimmer turnout
Legislative elections through June 2024

Lower turnout in India’s election could go either way, according to analysts, but still has potential to throw the vote into disarray. While a win for the ruling BJP is still considered a “foregone conclusion,” the scale of the party’s victory matters. Relatively muted turnout in some regions where the party has seen vigorous efforts in the past, like Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, could mean a dimmer-than-anticipated performance nationwide. Yashwant Sinha, a former member of parliament and national spokesperson for the BJP who defected from the party, declared that “there is no wave in this election,” and that “unpopular” Prime Minister Narendra Modi could even see a shock defeat.

ArrowIndia last appeared on the Hot List at #3, discussing deepfake material's use in campaigning.
3
South Africa – Trump endorsements
Legislative elections on May 29, 2024

South Africa’s election has seen dueling AI-generated Trump endorsements. It’s not just random supporters, either: one video of Trump endorsing the newly-founded MK Movement, led by former President Jacob Zuma, was posted by Zuma’s daughter herself, to which supporters of other political parties replied with their own fake endorsements. The original post from Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla picked up over 157,000 views on X (formerly Twitter), and did not receive a Community Note.

ArrowSouth Africa last appeared on the Hot List at #2, with former president Thabo Mbeki's intervention in the campaign.
Emma Roshan
4
Mozambique – Power trade
Presidential election on October 9, 2024

Mozambique’s ruling party has officially nominated a successor to President Filipe Nyusi. Daniel Chapo, the governor of Inhambane province, would be the country’s first “non-combatant” president, distinct from the guerilla fighter backgrounds that have characterized Mozambique’s leaders since independence. Described as a “former radio announcer” and “relatively unknown figure” in national politics, Chapo is said to have been “handpicked by Nyusi,” according to Mozambican political analyst Marisa Lourenco, likely ensuring some level of continuity in governance.

ArrowMozambique last appeared on the Hot List at #7, looking at the ruling party's potential struggles heading into the next election.
5
Panama – Tech mayor
Local elections held May 5, 2024

A tech entrepreneur who created his own Game Boy game for his campaign was elected mayor of Panama’s capital. Mayer Mizrachi, known for his attempt to create a competitor to WhatsApp, came up first place in a crowded field that included the incumbent. Mizrachi founded the electric car retailer GeekyMotors which served as a supplier for Tesla cars, has spent time in prison on fraud charges that were eventually dropped, which he attributed to political targeting, and has a family connection to former President Ricardo Martinelli, who himself has faced numerous legal issues over the years.

Panama last appeared on the Hot List at #5, featuring independent gains in national legislative elections.

Emma Roshan
6
Canada – Conservative factor
Provincial elections on October 19, 2024

Support for Canada’s Conservative Party has soared in British Columbia, potentially displacing the incumbent NDP government in the province. For decades, the Conservatives were not a factor in British Columbia’s provincial politics – until now, it seems. According to the latest poll, Tories there stand just above the NDP, which currently holds British Columbia as one of its only provincial governments in Canada. A recent name change for the BC Liberal Party, once the dedicated center-right opposition to the NDP in the province despite their label, may have provided an opening for the Conservatives to stake a claim on their brand.

ArrowCanada last appeared on the Hot List at #9, with foreign intelligence allegations of election meddling.
7
North Macedonia – Nationalist swell
Presidential election held May 8, 2024

North Macedonia’s nationalist VMRO party romped in elections this month, potentially setting back the country’s naming dispute with Greece. Presidential winner Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova has attracted international attention for her use of “Macedonia” over “North Macedonia” on the campaign trail, in clear disregard of the naming agreement that helped move the country towards European accession. Likewise, VMRO won nearly a majority, shifting national politics firmly to the right, and potentially throwing off the country’s course into the EU.

ArrowNorth Macedonia last appeared on the Hot List at #5, taking a look at the presidential run-off.
Emma Roshan
8
USA – Bob Ferguson
Gubernatorial election on November 5, 2024

Washington state’s attorney general Bob Ferguson has threatened legal action against opponents Bob Ferguson and Bob Ferguson, citing a little-known state statute. The two other Bob Fergusons immediately dropped out following the cease-and-desist letters. In Washington state, it is illegal to run for office “with a surname similar to a person who has already filed for the same office” — if they’re “widely known” in politics. One Bob Ferguson told The Seattle Times his “dream” of running for office was “destroyed” by the attorney general’s action.

ArrowThe USA last appeared on the Hot List at #7, featuring Howard Dean's potential plans to run for governor in Vermont.
9
Taiwan – How Tsai won
Presidential election in 2028

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen is exiting office with an unprecedented approval rating of 60%. The comparison with former presidents of Taiwan is “night and day,” according to one analyst interviewed by TaiwanPlus News. Tsai ascended to lead the Democratic People’s Party amid infighting and bounced back from a presidential defeat in 2012 to win in the next election, harnessing a wave of support from 2014’s sovereigntist Sunflower Student Movement. Her victories in 2016 and 2020 were also some of the biggest in Taiwanese history, winning those elections by 25 points and 19 points respectively.

ArrowTaiwan last appeared on the Hot List at #4, with the DPP government's plans to take down statues of Chiang Kai-shek.
Joey Pfeifer
THE BIG READ
X/Ishin no Kai

Japan’s rising star party Ishin may have fading momentum, with “struggles to set themselves apart.” For years, Ishin no Kai has been considered the looming force within Japanese politics, leveraging its success in Osaka Prefecture to a stunning expansion of support in the 2021 general election. But by-election losses and a mayoral miss in Daito, part of Osaka, might have derailed the party’s path to power. Journalist Takuya Nishimura, quoted in The Japan Times, suggests that Ishin “needs to distinguish itself more from the LDP,” given the broadly conservative stances of both parties.

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