Principals

1. Another attempt on Trump’s life
2. The possible Harris-Jeffries team
3. Racing for judges
4. GOP stopgap talks continue
5. Fed prepares for meeting
6. Vance criticizes Loomer
7. Lina Khan’s job security
8. The Gulf’s Trump choice

PDB: John Roberts’ secret memo on Trump case

Biden in Philadelphia … TikTok fights US sell-or-ban bill in court … WSJ: How Russia is profiting from stolen Ukrainian grain

Trump safe after another apparent assassination attempt

The FBI is investigating what it called another apparent attempted assassination on Donald Trump, and the congressional task force created to investigate the first attempted assassination announced they’ve requested briefings on the incident. An armed man was spotted Sunday on the course at Trump’s West Palm Beach golf club while the former president was playing a few hundreds yards away, law enforcement officials said. The US Secret Service opened fire and the suspect — reportedly identified as Ryan Wesley Routh — fled the scene but was later arrested. Trump was not harmed, but a rifle was found at the scene. The latest attempt on Trump’s life comes two months after a shooting at a Trump rally killed one attendee and injured two. Routh spoke to Semafor in 2023 and expressed frustration with the Ukrainian government for creating obstacles for foreign soldiers wishing to fight the Russian war. He also has an extensive police record in North Carolina, per The Wall Street Journal.

— Morgan Chalfant and Kadia Goba

Kamala Harris and Hakeem Jeffries: The duo who could run Washington

House Democrats may have an easier time reaching a President Harris than they did with President Biden. She has a closer working relationship with them and with possible future speaker Hakeem Jeffries than many realize, Semafor’s Kadia Goba writes. The barrier-breaking Black politicians forged their strong ties through the Congressional Black Caucus, later working on two criminal justice reform bills, and they’re regularly in touch. Biden was a “Senate guy” due to his 36 years there. Some Democratic representatives have a strong relationship with her because she simply answers the phone. “As weird as this may seem, you can call her. We can reach her,” Rep. Troy Carter, D-La., told Semafor, adding that “she hasn’t changed her focus, her accessibility” since becoming the nominee.

Senate Dems may finally get a judicial advantage

Between Republican absences and a boost from Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., Democrats are getting a new opportunity to win some tight lifetime judicial confirmation votes before the election. The Senate will vote today on confirming Kevin Ritz to be a circuit court judge, the kind of party-line nomination that might have been imperiled just a few weeks ago. But with Sen. JD Vance campaigning as Donald Trump’s running mate and Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., still out due to eye surgery, Democrats have more leeway. Plus, Manchin voted to advance Ritz, canceling out the opposition of Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz.. A Manchin spokesperson said he expected bipartisan support, and when it didn’t come, the GOP’s process concerns didn’t sway him. Reminder of the scoreboard: Through this point in their presidencies, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied at 209 in total Article III confirmations (!), according to the Heritage Foundation.

— Burgess Everett

House Republicans continue talks on stopgap funding bill

Negotiations continue among House Republicans on a path ahead for a stopgap government funding bill. Speaker Mike Johnson was forced to bail on a bill to keep the government open through March in the face of opposition within GOP ranks from defense hawks, centrists, and hardline conservatives. Johnson has tasked Majority Whip Tom Emmer to amass consensus, but it’s not clear yet that it will hit the House floor this week. For their part, Democrats are still demanding a clean spending package without any strings attached. The GOP’s razor-thin majority in the lower chamber, though, is still the perennial problem bedeviling GOP leaders, and there’s some pessimism that Republicans will band together around a party-line stopgap. “We’re not very good at this,” a senior GOP aide told Semafor.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Fed expected to cut rates this week after meeting

This is the week the Federal Reserve will finally cut rates for the first time since 2020. The debate is still raging over whether the Fed will announce a quarter-percentage-point or half-point cut on Wednesday, with traders “assigning a nearly dead-even chance” to each, The Wall Street Journal reports. The weakening labor market has caused some to argue for a more dramatic cut, though others say that going big would be a mistake. Stocks, gold, and Treasuries were up on Friday as bets on a larger cut grew, while the US dollar slid. The trajectory for the economy remains uncertain, and Wall Street and Washington will be closely scrutinizing the Fed’s “dot plot” — a projection for the short-term interest rate — as well as Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference following the announcement on rates.

Semafor Gulf launches today, marking Semafor’s third global edition following the US and sub-Saharan Africa. Three times a week, the Semafor Gulf newsroom will bring you original reporting that examines how the region’s financial, business, and geopolitical decisions shape the world — from culture and investment to infrastructure, climate, and technology.

To drive its coverage, Semafor has assembled a world-class regional editorial team consisting of award-winning journalists and contributors who will provide in-depth coverage of the dramatic, high-stakes story unfolding in the Arabian Peninsula. Reporting from Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and across the region, they will work in concert with Semafor’s top-flight business reporters in New York, its technology journalists in San Francisco, and its Washington, DC bureau.

Join thousands of industry leaders who get Semafor Gulf in their inbox — subscribe here with one click to receive the first issue. Sign up here.

Trumpworld worries about Loomer rhetoric

JD Vance criticized Laura Loomer’s comments denigrating Kamala Harris’ Indian heritage while distancing the Trump campaign from the right-wing activist. “Laura Loomer is not affiliated with the Trump campaign,” Vance said on NBC. “I think what Laura said about Kamala Harris is not what we should be focused on.” Anchor Kristen Welker pressed Vance on whether he and his wife, who is Indian American, were offended by Loomer’s comment that Harris would make the White House “smell like curry” if she were elected. “I don’t like those comments and I think we ought to focus on Kamala Harris’ policy failures,” he replied. Donald Trump’s allies have warned him that Loomer’s rhetoric could hurt him in Georgia and North Carolina because of their large Indian American populations, NBC reported. Trump described Loomer, who has been traveling with him on the campaign trail, as a “free spirit” last week.

Biden’s top trustbuster faces a battle to survive

Lina Khan faces an uphill battle to keep her job — even if Kamala Harris wins the White House, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reports. Confirming Khan to serve another term as Federal Trade Commission chair would be a “tougher lift,” Sen. Josh Hawley, one of the Republicans who supported her in 2021, told Semafor. Hawley says he now sees Khan’s record as mixed, and other Republicans who backed her at the time also expressed criticism of the top regulator. Khan has also made enemies on Wall Street, and several wealthy donors are already encouraging Harris to replace her. She has at least one GOP fan, though: JD Vance, Donald Trump’s running mate, has backed her approach to Big Tech. And Harris would risk progressive outcry if she tries to replace Khan. “It’s, to my mind, very important that she stays onboard,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders.

How the Gulf sees Trump

Donald Trump may appear the ideal partner for Gulf governments, but a second Trump presidency could be costly for the region, Al Arabiya’s Chief International Anchor wrote in her inaugural column for Semafor Gulf. The former US president is pro-business and staunchly pro-oil, but his policies — notably, he has promised “energy dominance” — would prioritize US energy output at the expense of Gulf countries, Hadley Gamble wrote. It’s a challenge for governments globally, whether they are US allies or adversaries: Trump’s short-term plans and unpredictability can be advantageous, but his aggressive policies may undermine economic stability in regions key to American interests. “Bottom line,” Gamble concluded, the Gulf “may prefer Trump but they probably can’t afford him.”

For more on the region, subscribe to Semafor’s thrice-weekly Gulf newsletter — it launches later today. Sign up here.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The super PAC backed by Elon Musk is planning to spend $10 million on voter turnout for House races.

Playbook: Donald Trump’s allies expressed concerns about his safety on the golf course before Sunday’s attempted assassination.

WaPo: Voters in five swing states will start voting by mail this week.

Axios: The attempts on Trump’s life have transformed his favorite places “into infamous scenes of near-national nightmares.”

White House

• President Biden is delivering a speech at the 2024 National HBCU Week Conference today.
• Vice President Harris is holding a campaign meeting this afternoon.
• Biden is expected to visit Africa following the UN General Assembly. — Reuters

Congress

• House Oversight Committee ranking member Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., has a fairly clear idea of what the panel should investigate if Democrats retake the chamber, including the business dealings of Donald Trump while he was president and those of Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. — Axios

Outside the Beltway

• New York Mayor Eric Adams’ chief counsel, Lisa Zornberg, resigned over the weekend as top officials in Adams’ administration are facing federal investigations.

Economy

• The Biden administration finalized tariff increases on Chinese products like electric vehicles.

Business

• Nippon Steel has allies in workers outside Pittsburgh who are more worried about the potential closure of US Steel plants than they are about foreign ownership of the company. — WSJ
• The European Union’s internal market commissioner, who had overseen many of the EU’s attempts to regulate Big Tech, unexpectedly resigned, accusing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of trying to replace him. — Politico

Courts

• Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts penned a confidential memo in February to other justices criticizing a lower court opinion greenlighting Donald Trump’s 2020 election subversion trial. “I think it likely that we will view the separation of powers analysis differently,” he wrote. — NYT

Polls

• Six percent polled by ABC News/Ipsos said Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris makes them more likely to vote for her, while 13% said it would make them less likely to do so. Meanwhile, Donald Trump posted to Truth Social: “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!”

• Harris has a slim advantage over Trump when voters are asked who they trust more to handle the economy, according to a new FT-Michigan Ross poll.

On the Trail

• JD Vance repeatedly defended spreading baseless claims about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio eating pets during appearances on the Sunday shows.
• Meanwhile, Donald Trump plans to visit Springfield “soon,” according to a source familiar with the planning. — NBC News
• Pope Francis told US Catholics to choose the “lesser evil” when deciding whether to vote for Trump or Kamala Harris.

National Security

• Intel has qualified for up to $3.5 billion in grants to make chips for the Pentagon as part of a secret program called Secure Enclave. — Bloomberg

Foreign Policy

• Venezuela arrested US and EU citizens over their alleged role in a US-sponsored plot to kill President Nicolás Maduro and other members of his government.
• Israel’s military said three hostages whose bodies were recovered in Gaza in December were likely killed in one of its airstrikes in November.
• China has released American pastor David Lin, who had been jailed since 2006 on contract fraud charges. The US said Lin was detained unjustly.
• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will attend the BRICs summit in Russia next month.

Technology

• SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule splashed down off the coast of Florida early Sunday carrying four private citizens following a five-day mission that included the first all-civilian space walk.

Media

• KKR and German billionaire Mathias Döpfner are closing in on a deal to split up Axel Springer, the parent of Politico and Business Insider as well as German newspapers Bild and Die Welt. — FT

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Two IRS agents who came forward with allegations about interference in Hunter Biden’s tax investigation sued one of his lawyers for defamation.

What the Right isn’t reading: Six House Republicans signed onto a bipartisan pledge to uphold the results of the upcoming election.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Semafor is sitting down with Rep. Sean Casten, D-Ill., on Tuesday to talk all things permitting reform and grid resiliency. RSVP here to join the conversation.