Principals

1. Trump pauses on Iran
2. Trump’s advisers on Iran
3. Agriculture’s immigration whiplash
4. The limbo economy
5. Senate building name fight
6. Battleground megabill polling

PDB: Trump delays TikTok ban — again

Europe, Iran hold nuclear talks … Japan’s core inflation rises … Brent crude ⬇️ 2.40%

Trump gives diplomacy a chance

President Donald Trump is stepping back from his threat of imminent war with Iran for now. Trump now plans to make a decision on striking Iran’s nuclear program within two weeks due to a “substantial chance of negotiations,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday.

The president will convene another national security meeting in the Oval Office this morning, as US officials watch for progress out of a meeting between European and Iranian officials in Geneva. The path forward is murky: Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran would not meet with the US until Israeli strikes end, though Leavitt told The Washington Post that envoy Steve Witkoff has recently corresponded with Iranian officials.

The pause also “opens a host of new military and covert options,” potentially lulling Tehran into a false sense of security, The New York Times notes. Keep in mind: Trump often uses “two weeks” as an indeterminate placeholder, diluting its meaning.

Who has Trump’s ear on Iran

As Trump eyes a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, he’s getting wildly divergent advice, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. While hawkish pundits and lawmakers like Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., have implored Trump to “finish the job,” others are warning that the action is unlikely to completely neuter Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. “Wars are messy. They’re long and they’re unclear. Rarely will one single action spell the end of a conflict,” said Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Mont. The Republican Party is fractured over the issue, as a few MAGA loyalists have been vocally warning against a strike. Trump’s openness to striking Iran also shows the evolution of his “America First” vision from its non-interventionist origins. One reason Trump may ultimately hold off: low US critical munition reserves, which one Pentagon official described as a “a significant, even primary concern.”

No immigration relief for farms

Trump isn’t planning imminent carveouts for the agriculture industry as his administration pushes ahead with more immigration raids at worksites, two officials told Semafor. The decision comes amid confusion over the president’s stance on immigration enforcement focusing on farms, hotels, and restaurants. Over several days, Trump posted differing messages on the subject, and immigration officials halted raids on worksites, only to reverse them. One senior administration official told Semafor that the original pause came about as a result of internal confusion over Trump’s Truth Social post, prompting an overcorrection as officials tried to figure out what the official guidance was. “To my knowledge, there’s nothing being prepped” at the moment to formally safeguard farmers, the senior administration official said — though everyone cautioned that the guidance could change at some point.

— Shelby Talcott

GOP adapts to Trump’s limbo economy

As Trump’s tariffs and his tax-and-spending bill change by the hour, his party is getting accustomed to a new reality: No one knows what’s going on with the economy, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports. Record-high uncertainty stemming from his administration’s on-again-off-again trade talks has deterred the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates and is making it harder for businesses to plan.

Those same businesses have had to simultaneously struggle with negotiations over Republicans’ megabill that are full of optimism — but short on clarity. Still, most US economic data has remained strong — a win Trump’s allies have been happy to tout. “Look, maybe at some point there’ll be something, somewhere” to be concerned about in economic data, Joe LaVorgna, counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, told Semafor. “But the fact is this — that the numbers continue to surprise to the downside.”

Tax cuts bill faces political challenges

As Trump’s megabill nears passage in the Senate, incumbent Republicans like Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., will quickly have to pivot to selling it to their voters. That’s going to be a challenge, at least according to a new North Carolina poll obtained by Semafor and conducted by the left-leaning Data for Progress in June.

The survey shows that a majority of North Carolinians start off opposed to the House-passed bill; once some of the bill’s key provisions are described to them the split becomes 38% supportive, 57% opposed. In a brief interview about the bill’s politics this week, Tillis said it’s tough to poll a bill that is still under construction. “At the end of the day, I think we will have a bill that we will be able to sell to people in North Carolina,” he insisted.

— Burgess Everett

Green: Rename Senate building

Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, sent a Juneteenth message to senators: Rename the Russell Senate Office Building. In a letter seen by Semafor, Green asked senators to change the name of the building — currently named for former Sen. Richard Russell of Georgia, a segregationist Democrat, and filled with architectural gems — and temporarily dub the structure the Old Senate Office Building while senators agree on a permanent solution. “Senator Russell’s name has been on this building since 1972,” Green wrote, and it is “long past time to remove this insult to people of goodwill from a building paid for and maintained with public funds.” After the death of former Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., some senators wanted to name it after him, but Georgia’s GOP Senate delegation balked at the idea at the time. Notably, that state’s senators are now both Democrats.

— Burgess Everett

Over its 174-year history, The New York Times has weathered seismic shifts in the media industry — and stayed on top, evolving into a digital powerhouse with hit podcasts and a daily app for games and cooking. This week, live from the Cannes Lions festival, Ben and Max sit down with CEO Meredith Kopit Levien to talk about how she’s keeping the Times relevant, where journalism fits into the business model, and whether it’s helping or hurting the bottom line.

Blindspot: Bluesky and hotline

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The app Bluesky temporarily suspended Vice President JD Vance.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Trump administration is shutting down a suicide hotline for LGBTQ+ youth.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: As Senate Republicans race to pass the massive tax cut bill by the end of next week, the so-called “Byrd Bath” is beginning. The Senate parliamentarian is meeting with Democratic and Republican staffers starting today, and on Sunday the full arguments from both sides on whether various provisions comply with the Byrd rule will begin.

Playbook: MAGA faithfuls insist that talk of a MAGA movement civil war over President Trump’s Iran policy is overblown. “It’s not a civil war,” Charlie Kirk said. “I think that there is robust and healthy disagreement and discussion.”

Axios: Three-quarters of Americans want legally required and publicly released health tests of the president, and more than 80% want age limits for the job.

White House

• As promised, President Trump again delayed enforcement of a law banning TikTok in the US absent its sale by ByteDance, pushing it back until Sept. 17.
• Elon Musk called top Trump aide Sergio Gor a “snake.”
• Katie Miller, Stephen Miller’s wife and a Musk aide, “stands as the human connective tissue between their camps.” — NYT

Congress

• ICE will no longer allow members of Congress to make unannounced visits to field offices or facilities, per a new policy.
• Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., is marshalling support for an effort to require President Trump to get Congress’ sign-off before launching a strike on Iran; in the House, Rep. Thomas Massie is considering a similar push. — WaPo

Inside the Beltway

• Funding for Social Security and Medicare will run out in less than a decade, and automatic cuts will kick in in 2033, according to a report from the Treasury Department.
• A militarized Boeing 747 “doomsday” jet, meant to serve as an airborne White House in the event of mass catastrophe, has landed near DC.

Outside the Beltway

• The Los Angeles Dodgers said it had barred ICE agents from entering a stadium parking lot; ICE denied involvement, but agents on the scene said they were with “DHS.” — LA Times
• The New York Police Department’s hate crimes unit is investigating threats to kill mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani with a car bomb.

Economy

• The International Monetary Fund is warning Europe could soon slide into stagnation.

Education

• The State Department has resumed admitting foreign students but is vetting their social media accounts for “any indications of hostility” against the US.

Courts

• An appeals court ruled late Thursday that President Trump can retain control of the National Guard units deployed to Los Angeles, overriding Gov. Gavin Newsom.
• The Supreme Court upheld Tennessee’s ban on gender health care for trans minors on Wednesday, finding that the law did not illegally discriminate on the basis of sex or transgender status and ruling that states should be able to outlaw the prescription of treatments like puberty blockers and hormones to trans patients under 18.

Foreign Policy

• Jason Greenblatt explains in a column for Semafor why President Trump views Iran as an “America First” priority.
• Neither Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth nor Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard are playing major roles advising Trump on how to handle Iran. — WaPo
• Canada will impose retaliatory steel and aluminum tariffs on the US within 30 days if the two countries are unable to strike a deal, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said.
• Chinese government hackers have increasingly gone after businesses and agencies in Russia, a putative ally. — NYT

Health

• The FDA approved a new twice-yearly shot to prevent HIV infection.

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

And Graph Massara, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

About half of 18-to-29-year-olds have seen the movie Jaws, compared to nearly nine-in-10 Americans over the age of 65, according to a new Gallup poll released in timing with the film’s 50th anniversary.

For weeks, railroad executives have played footsie in public, touting the benefits of mergers that would turn regional players into coast-to-coast juggernauts. Investors, too, have caught the bug, Semafor’s Rohan Goswami reports. But their enthusiasm hinges on one question: Will the industry’s regulator be on board? Try him.

Patrick Fuchs, the 37-year-old chairman of the Surface Transportation Board, has signaled what has been interpreted as an openness to consolidation, or at least a clean break from the reflexive antipathy of his predecessor.