Principals

1. Trump’s trade talks
2. The Fed meets
3. India-Pakistan tensions erupt
4. Ed Martin on ropes
5. Senate’s stablecoin snarl
6. Sheehy’s wildfire ask
7. Krishnamoorthi Senate bid
8. Dems press Paramount

PDB: Americans pessimistic on housing market

Cardinals gather to elect new pope … Biden gives first TV interview since leaving office … Hang Seng index ⬆️ 0.13%

Trump downplays trade deals

High-stakes trade talks between the US and China will begin later this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who will attend the talks in Switzerland with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, stressed the need to deescalate in a Fox News interview. “We don’t want to decouple, what we want is fair trade,” he said. However, President Donald Trump downplayed trade negotiations writ large on Tuesday and suggested the US might not actually sign formal trade agreements with other countries. “We don’t have to sign deals,” he said alongside Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, adding that his administration would dictate concessions to trade partners. “They’ll start shopping, or they’ll say, ‘not good.’” Carney made some headway in charming Trump, even while insisting Canada isn’t “for sale.” “The tone is improving and that’s really got to be the goal of this first meeting,” former Canadian conservative leader Erin O’Toole said.

— Morgan Chalfant

The Fed’s dilemma

The Federal Reserve has a tough call to make today as it struggles to respond to Trump’s tariffs: cut interest rates in an effort to stave off a recession, or leave them in place to continue battling inflation. “They’ll continue to be focused on their dual mandate [of maximum employment and price stability] — and it’s about to get a little bit harder as we see some of the retaliatory tariffs,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., told Semafor. “More than anything, I’m hoping to hear that there’s … a clear path to some bilateral trade agreements that at least provide certainty with many of the major markets.” In absence of that certainty, Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of his board are largely expected to hold the course despite Trump’s persistent urging to act. “We are well-positioned to wait,” Powell said recently.

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump’s next foreign policy crisis

The Trump administration faces an emerging foreign policy crisis as India and Pakistan edged closer to the brink of war, with Islamabad vowing to retaliate against deadly Indian strikes Wednesday as the international community urged restraint. Pakistan said 26 civilians died in military strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir that India said were precision operations targeting “known terror camps.” Pakistan also claimed to have shot down five Indian aircraft. The threat of conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors underscores shifting global alliances: India used to buy arms mainly from Russia, but increasingly is doing so from the West, while Pakistan is shifting its supply from the US to China. The connections inject “superpower politics into South Asia’s longest-running and most intractable conflict,” The New York Times reported.

Trump’s DC attorney pick on thin ice

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., is opposing Trump’s pick for DC’s top prosecutor, Ed Martin, as the nominee faces a May 20 deadline on his interim appointment. Trump spoke to Tillis on Tuesday shortly after the North Carolina Republican announced his opposition, which is driven by Martin’s support for some Jan. 6 defendants. Tillis said he has a “problem with someone coming into the DC district responsible for law enforcement on Capitol Hill that seems to equivocate a little bit on people that entered the building.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tillis’ opposition to Martin “would suggest that he’s not probably going to get out of” the Senate Judiciary Committee, of which Tillis is a member. “It would take a lot of work to convince me that we’re actually on the same page,” Tillis said of Martin. “I think we’ve got an honest disagreement.”

— Burgess Everett

Senate Democrats could tank crypto bill

Senate Democrats are looking to influence Trump’s legislative agenda by demanding concessions from Republicans on one of the president’s favorite topics: cryptocurrency, Eleanor and Burgess report. The decision by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to take a firmer hand with his caucus — and openly side with progressives — marks a contrast with previous fights. And it could spell trouble for legislation that would create rules for stablecoins, or crypto pegged to assets like the US dollar, ahead of a procedural vote that Majority Leader John Thune lined up for Thursday. Pro-crypto lawmakers shuttled between meetings Tuesday as they looked to negotiate Democrat-sought changes to the bill. And a growing number of Republicans expressed reservations. “Are we there right at this moment? No, but I really do think we can get there,” sponsor Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., said leaving a meeting with Schumer.

GOP urges less wildfire redtape

Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Mont., is leading a new letter from Republicans to Trump urging the president to take “immediate, decisive action” on a coordinated response ahead of the May-November wildfire season, according to correspondence first shared with Semafor. The Montana Republican, who founded an aerial firefighting company and sponsored bipartisan wildfire legislation, is also in discussions with the administration about a potential executive order on fighting wildfires, according to a person familiar with the conversations. The letter, which is signed by 17 House and Senate Republicans mostly from Western states, tells Trump that “while some improvements to our federal wildfire response will require congressional action, we believe executive action offers the most immediate path to fostering interagency cohesion, streamlining outdated processes, and ensuring a robust response to wildfires.”

— Burgess Everett

Krishnamoorthi runs for Senate

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi joined the crowded race to succeed Dick Durbin today, and is starting with a $17.1 million war chest. In an interview, the five-term congressman from Chicago’s western suburbs said that he favored “carve-outs” to the filibuster and did not rule out supporting Chuck Schumer as Senate Democratic leader. “I want to hear his position on a variety of issues,” he said. Krishnamoorthi joins Rep. Robin Kelly and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in the battle for the Democratic nomination; some in the party expect Gov. JB Pritzker to spend heavily for Stratton, whom he’s endorsed. Krishnamoorthi said he wanted “the people of Illinois to have a say” and wasn’t fretting about other candidates. The primary for what’s become a safe Democratic seat could be the most expensive ever, but the candidates haven’t differed much yet on policy.

— David Weigel

Dems urge Paramount not to settle

Senators led by Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., are urging Paramount not to settle Trump’s lawsuit against its news division, CBS. In a letter to Paramount owner Shari Redstone, Semafor’s Max Tani reports, Sanders and eight Democratic senators said the media company should fight Trump’s lawsuit against CBS, which focuses on a minor edit of a 60 Minutes interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential campaign season. Settling with Trump, they warn, will “only embolden him to shakedown, extort and silence CBS and other media outlets.” While most legal experts agree that Trump’s lawsuit against 60 Minutes is dubious at best, Paramount has entered into settlement talks with the president. The company is trying to avoid Trump’s ire as it attempts to finalize its merger with the entertainment company Skydance, which hinges on FCC approval.

Blindspot: Ackman and Greene

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Billionaire Bill Ackman called for a change in leadership of Harvard’s board.

What the Right isn’t reading: Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said she could win a GOP primary in the state’s Senate or gubernatorial race, after current Gov. Brian Kemp said he wasn’t going to run for either seat.

Stay informed and sane with Ground News. As the news cycle around us becomes more polarizing and partisan, Ground News compares how sources from the left, right, and center report the same story, so you can see the full picture. Proudly trusted by hundreds of thousands of readers across the political spectrum — it’s the perfect addition to your media diet. Start your free trial today.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Some House conservatives want Republicans to back off their fight against antisemitism, arguing that it infringes on the First Amendment. “Congress should just stay out of these fights to crack down on free speech,” Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., said. “It’s not illegal to be antisemitic.”

Playbook: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is “actively laying the tracks” for a potential Democratic bid for president in 2028.

Axios: The White House is planning executive action designed to accelerate the deployment of nuclear reactors.

White House

• President Trump announced the US will stop conducting strikes against Houthi militants in Yemen, saying that “they want to stop the fighting,” an agreement reportedly brokered by Oman.

Congress

• The Senate confirmed Frank Bisignano to head the Social Security Administration in a 53-47 party line vote.

Business

• An “environment of uncertainties” is holding back corporate investment in artificial intelligence technology, Gary Cohn, the former Trump official and IBM vice chairman, told Semafor’s Andrew Edgecliffe-Johsnon.

Economy

• The US trade deficit rose to a record high of $140.5 billion in March, surging 14% from the previous month.
• New Gallup polling shows that only 30% of the US adults who don’t own a home believe they will purchase one in the next five years, while 23% say they will do so in the next 10 years and 45% don’t anticipate it happening in the foreseeable future. That’s a noticeable drop from 2018, the last time Gallup asked these questions, when 45% expected to buy a house within five years.

Courts

• The Supreme Court cleared the way for the Trump administration to enforce its ban on transgender troops in the US military while legal challenges play out.
• A federal judge in New York became the second to block President Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to remove Venezuelan migrants.
• The Justice Department is investigating a 2022 traffic stop involving Kilmar Ábrego García, the man the US deported mistakenly — an apparent effort to gather potentially incriminating information about him after the fact. — ABC

Education

• Harvard University’s president, Alan Garber, said he doesn’t necessarily disagree with all the motivations behind the Trump administration’s attacks on higher education institutions. The problem, he told The Wall Street Journal, is Trump’s “means of achieving it.”

Immigration

• The White House asked Ukraine to accept US deportees who are citizens of other countries. — WaPo
• The administration is also planning to send migrants to Libya, though it’s not clear whether said migrants are Libyan nationals. — Reuters

National Security

• A verbal order from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to pause flights of US military equipment to Ukraine in January surprised the White House. — Reuters
• Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard reused a weak password for different accounts “over a period of years.” — Wired

Foreign Policy

• The UK and India inked a trade deal.
• The Trump administration ordered US spy agencies to gather more intel on Greenland. — WSJ

Media

• The Guardian is expanding in the US. — Axios

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

And Graph Massara, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

John Leganski served as deputy chief of staff and floor director for then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. We asked him about Friedrich Merz failing to secure enough votes to become German chancellor in the first round of voting. He was later elected chancellor in the second round.