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Intelligence for the New World Economy

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Intelligence for the New World Economy
Semafor World Economy
Alaa Shahine Salha

Alaa Shahine Salha

Geoeconomics analyst

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Alaa Shahine Salha is a senior executive at Saudi Research & Media Group and an economics contributor for Asharq Business with Bloomberg. A Lebanese journalist, he previously served as Bloomberg News managing editor for the Middle East and managing editor for economics in Europe.

Saudi Arabia’s sizable deficit is a risk worth taking

Higher spending led to an unexpectedly large deficit in the first quarter, but inaction would have been a bigger risk.
General view shows the King Abdullah Financial District Metro Station in Riyadh
Hamad I Mohammed/Reuters

America’s Iraq failure is haunting Trump’s war with Iran

Iraqi militia attacks on Gulf states show how US failures in Iraq are complicating the Iran war.
Poster of former IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Baghdad.
Poster of former IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis in Baghdad. Ahmed Saad/Reuters

Why Saudi is weathering the war shock better than most

A week in Riyadh offers evidence that oil buffers and pragmatic policymaking are containing the fallout.
A Saudi man walks past the logo of Vision 2030 after a news conference in Jeddah.
Faisal Al Nasser/Reuters

Egypt’s crisis playbook is improving. The risks are the same.

Egypt’s economy is more resilient to shocks but unaddressed structural weaknesses leave it exposed.
World Bank President Ajay Banga visits to review World Bank–Backed projects in Egypt.
Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters

In the Iran war, the Gulf’s shock absorber is still oil

Diversification may have made Gulf economies broader, but oil and the wealth it has helped generate still matter most in this war.
Fire and smoke rise in the Fujairah oil industry zone, caused by debris after interception of a drone by air defenses, according to the Fujairah media office, amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates
Amr Alfiky/Reuters

Past oil shocks may teach us the wrong lesson about the Iran war

The Arab oil embargo of the 1970s was a nightmare scenario. But even falling short of that could be painful for the US and global economy.
An oil tanker.
Benoit Tessier/Reuters

Trump’s race against time — and oil prices, and inflation

For the US president, domestic economics may prove as constraining as any battlefield reality.

Saudi Arabia’s delicate long game in Syria

Riyadh and international organizations are taking a cautious, institution-first strategy to revive Syria’s economy.