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Josh Hawley isn’t a Republican leader or on the Senate’s tax-writing committee. He’s still a central player in shaping the tax bill that promises to be President Donald Trump’s signature accomplishment.
And the Missouri senator is making clear that Republicans need to destroy the decades-long popular perception that they’re inordinately focused on wealthy people and big business.
“I would try to make it the biggest tax cut for working families in American history,” Hawley told Semafor on Thursday, just a few minutes after reports that Trump is vocally pushing for higher taxes on the highest earners.
Hawley’s cool with that, especially if the money from those taxes is used to help finance his top priorities: hiking the child tax credit from $2,000 to $5,000 and making anyone who pays payroll taxes eligible for it. He also wants to make charity and mortgage interest deductions accessible to all taxpayers.
That’s on top of his vow to stave off cuts to Medicaid, a red line that’s already causing huge tension within the GOP. But Hawley has a powerful ally in Trump, who Hawley talks to regularly.
There’s a bigger purpose behind the stand he’s taking on the tax bill. A few months into his second term, Hawley is adding policy heft to a brand of populist conservatism that could chart the path forward for his ever-evolving party. From cheering on $1,200 direct COVID-19 pandemic relief payments alongside independent Sen. Bernie Sanders to opposing a GOP-leadership-backed cryptocurrency bill on Thursday, Hawley blends selectively progressive fiscal policies with socially conservative views.
And he owns his sometimes lonely stances. If the House and Senate don’t end up meeting his bar for the child tax credit, Hawley says he’ll offer it as an amendment on the Senate floor and force a vote: “It would be a huge mistake not to include a bigger child tax credit in this thing.”
Much of Hawley’s current influence is rooted in his tight relationship with Trump. He objected to certifying President Joe Biden’s victory over Trump, which put him at odds with Senate GOP leaders at the time, and has remained a steadfast ally of the president’s.
Sometimes that alliance manifests as his constantly reminding Washington what Trump wants. For instance, Hawley has let the world know Trump opposes Medicaid benefit cuts, resulting in a gradual but noticeable decline in Republican momentum for slashing federal spending on the program.
Hawley said Thursday that Trump “is pushing the House in the right direction” on Medicaid.
It’s a little less clear how hard Trump will go to bat for the big child tax credit Hawley wants. During the 2024 campaign, the president flirted with a similar idea but never fully endorsed it.
Hawley said he believed the White House is “pushing” for a bigger credit, and he has spoken to Trump about making credits like the mortgage interest deduction available to all people who pay payroll taxes.
A person familiar with the White House’s position said tax bill provisions regarding the child tax credit or increasing eligibility to all people with jobs are under discussion, but with no commitments.
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Hawley’s hardly the only prominent Republican with big new tax ideas that are designed to break through with voters. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, told Semafor this week he wants to create investment accounts for US kids to tap into when they are adults. Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., wants a focus on child care.
The top priority for GOP leaders, on the other hand, is simply extending existing tax cuts — something that many people will not notice. But beefing up the child tax credit is among the most popular ideas internally.
“It’s gotta be the focus: child tax credit and making the tax cuts on working class families permanent,” said Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., who’s relatively like-minded with Hawley on economic issues. “If we don’t get that done, we’ll lose majorities and we’ll be in the wilderness for a long time to come.”
Doubling the child tax credit was one of the signature accomplishments of the party’s 2017 tax law. Making it even bigger will be expensive, and it could be tough to convince 50 GOP senators to vote yes.
Hawley said he talks frequently to House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith, R-Mo., about the child tax credit and finds his home-state colleague to be an ally. And Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, said Republicans don’t want to see the credit revert back to $1,000, preferring an “enhancement” to keep pace with inflation.
But Hawley acknowledged that lots of Senate Republicans are “pretty hostile to the child tax credit, period.”
“We increasingly have an economy in this country that does not work for working-class people. And as Republicans, we need to do something about that,” Hawley said.
“We need to preserve social insurance programs that they rely on — and pay into, by the way — but we also need to be taking measures and steps to get them tax relief.”
Burgess’s view
With JD Vance now vice president, Hawley is the purest GOP populist in Congress, with a knack for attention and willingness to occasionally isolate himself within the party as a result.
That can be a help and a hindrance: Hawley’s propensity to lean on his relationship with Trump is clearly an asset, but he still has to win over his colleagues.
Still, that’s where Hawley’s talent for generating a groundswell in the party could come in handy. If Trump puts his weight behind Hawley’s ideas on the child tax credit, it could happen — or at least move the tax bill closer to the Missourian’s vision of a working-class friendly Republican economic agenda.
Room for Disagreement
Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., one of the most conservative members of the House, said he supports “things that make America more productive and take care of working folks.”
He also had a warning for those, like Hawley, hoping for bold action.
“I don’t know at this time if that’s going to happen. Because basically, Congress doesn’t have any guts — and it’s kind of like Hollywood. They’ll do what’s right when we force them to, but America’s not forcing us at this point to do what’s right,” Burchett told Semafor.
Notable
- Trump is breaking GOP orthodoxy on taxes on high earners … for now, at least, Shelby and Burgess reported on Thursday.
- The Washington Post zooms in on the fight over state and local tax deductions, which are stalling progress.
Shelby Talcott, Kadia Goba, and Eleanor Mueller contributed to this report.