The News
The longest government shutdown in history may have been enough for Democrats.
The exact ingredients are in place for the same fight that led the party to shut the government down for 43 days this fall: Lawmakers have no deal on expiring health care subsidies and still aren’t certain how most of the government will be funded past Jan. 30.
But even progressives who disliked the deal to end the shutdown said the party is not discussing plunging into another one.
“There’s been no discussion about shutdowns. I haven’t heard a word by any of my colleagues about a shutdown,” Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., told Semafor. “And the last time in the run-up there was discussion about what we wanted: health care. But I haven’t heard that discussion now.”
To be clear, Democrats aren’t quite giving up all their leverage in either chamber of Congress for January; they could change their minds depending on how bipartisan talks on the expiring enhanced premium tax credits go next month.
They also want to assess how progress on bipartisan spending bills; if those pieces stall out, it will require another stopgap spending bill that Democrats will not like.
Broadly, though, Democrats appear satisfied enough with the results of the shutdown to steer away from another one — in an election year, no less. Some moderate House Republicans aligned themselves with the Democratic position, and the Capitol is still often focused on what Democrats want to talk about: namely, rising health care premiums and what the GOP wants to do about it.
“Republicans still have a chance to lower costs on health care. But they still seem as determined not to as ever,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
Democrats feel they’ve shifted the narrative enough in Washington to their health care priorities, even though a policy breakthrough eludes them. That could remain a point of contention next month.
“We’ve certainly won the narrative on this, but I want to win the actual health care,” said progressive Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash.
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Just eight Senate Democrats and six House Democrats supported the deal to reopen the government, which included three full-year funding bills through Sept. 30. Those would make another shutdown less painful — SNAP is funded through them, for example.
Nonetheless, Democrats are actively debating how to fund the government through the regular process or potentially face another take-it-or-leave-it stopgap bill from the House. These decisions will be made in the context of whether an unlikely health care deal comes together.
“We’re working on appropriation bills to prevent another shutdown, now,” said Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, D-N.M. “Let’s see what January brings. But people are hurting. Everything’s getting more expensive.”
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer telegraphed the shutdown fight in September and laid the groundwork for it for weeks. This week, he was questioned several times on whether he would once again tie the funding deadline to the issue of health care. He essentially said that Jan. 1 will be too late to revive the subsidies, although members of his caucus said they will keep trying.
And few senators are using the same language they were using just a couple weeks ago to describe their shutdown fight for health care in order to lay the groundwork for January.
“It’s a fair question. But I can’t give you an answer yet,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. “There are a lot of factors.”
“First we have to see how the appropriations process is working to really get a better sense of that a couple weeks into January,” added the more centrist Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. “It’s a little premature to try to speculate that right now.”
But after a painful split in reopening the government, Democrats are back to a more unified position. Even the party’s more progressive members say they want to get regular spending bills done, which would potentially take the government shutdown threat off the table or at least mitigate the effects of one.
“In an ideal world, we pass the appropriations bills. That is the mission,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.
Room for Disagreement
Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., who’s consistently made the argument against shutdowns, said “of course” he’s worried about another shutdown. He also said he hoped his party learned something after the shutdown resulted in a failed vote on reviving the subsidies last week.
“If they want to do it again, then I’m willing to be the same guy that said it’s always wrong to shut it down,” Fetterman told Semafor. “We got the vote that we could have had without shutting the government down for 40-some days.”
The View From Republicans
Former GOP leader Mitch McConnell said after the 2013 shutdown that “there’s no education in the second kick of a mule.” Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, thinks Democrats have learned the same lesson.
“My prediction is they will not get behind that donkey again and shut the government down,” Arrington said.
Burgess’s view
The Democratic messaging is a lot different than it was before, during, and right after the shutdown. That makes me think the party believes it’s made its point on health care and doesn’t want the smoke of a second shutdown.
But you will also notice non-Fetterman Democrats aren’t saying they will vote for anything to avoid a shutdown, either. A lot can happen in the next six weeks, and it’s clear Democrats are maintaining some flexibility to change their strategies.
Notable
- Schumer told Punchbowl News he wants to get bipartisan appropriations bills done.
Eleanor Mueller contributed to this report.