Principals

1. Santos survives fight night
2. Bipartisan border talks
3. Republicans tackle Tuberville
4. Some Dems may back the GOP Israel bill
5. Ukraine in stalemate
6. Biden promotes a China hawk
7. U.K.’s Israel debate

PDB: Trump’s classified documents trial could be delayed

Biden calls for ‘pause’ in Israel-Hamas war … Fed holds rates steady … Politico: Biden aides believe Netanyahu’s days are numbered

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

The House’s airing of grievances

You’ll still have Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y. to kick around for now. The indicted fabulist survived an expulsion attempt, as the House voted 213-179 against the motion. This was not a typical partisan fight: Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y. brought up the resolution, which was backed by 24 Republicans, while 31 Democrats voted to defeat it. It’s not that Santos is Mr. Popularity all of a sudden — not a single member spoke up for him during the floor debate — but members balked at forcing out a congressman without a court conviction or completed ethics probe (the panel investigating him promised a Nov. 17 update not long before the vote). “People might not be happy with the process, but they do not have a right to create a predetermined outcome,” Santos said afterwards. Ranking Oversight member Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md. agreed, calling expulsion “a very risky road to go down” prematurely. The thin House GOP majority probably didn’t hurt on that side either.

Meanwhile, in the undercard matchup for House fight night, members tabled a measure by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga. to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich. for, among other charges, supporting an “insurrection” — Greene’s term for civil disobedience protests by Jewish activists in a House office building against Israel’s Gaza campaign. Once again, the vote scrambled the usual party lines: 23 Republicans joined all Democrats in blocking it. In response, Rep. Becca Balint, D-Vt. withdrew her own censure resolution against Greene, which included a mention of her 2018 suggestion that an imaginary space laser controlled by the Rothschild family caused wildfires in California.

Could Washington have a “magic moment” on the border?

Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla. won’t say yet which Democrats he’s been talking to about a bipartisan border security deal. But on Wednesday he did tell reporters about some of the ideas being batted around, Joseph Zeballos-Roig writes. Changes to asylum policy are a “high priority” for the group, including the end of the practice sometimes known as “catch and release,” where migrants awaiting an immigration court date are allowed into the U.S. instead of being detained. “We’re trying to figure out what authorities the administration is missing,” Lankford told reporters.

Senate Republicans are demanding big concessions on border security as their price for possibly supporting the administration’s push to combine Israel and Ukraine aid. So far, Democrats appear to be hearing them out. “I certainly wouldn’t write it off, but it’s gotta be reasonable policy,” Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont. told Semafor. One big factor may be that the influx of migrants at the Southern border has also become a headache for blue states like New York, where new arrivals are swamping social services. “I think maybe this is a magic moment,” Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas told Semafor on Wednesday. “If I were President Biden, I’d say the mean old Republicans made me do this and he’d take one of his biggest political liabilities off the table.”

Republicans savage Tuberville on Senate floor

A group of Senate Republicans led by Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, waged an extraordinary revolt on the chamber’s floor Wednesday evening in an effort to break a months-long blockade on military promotions from Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. over the Defense Department’s abortion policy. GOP frustration with Tuberville hit a boiling point this week after Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith — who had essentially been working two jobs, while waiting for a deputy to be promoted — suffered an apparent heart attack. Sens. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, Todd Young, R-Ind., Mitt Romney, R-Utah and Sullivan pressed the former football coach to drop his holds for 61 of the 376 pending promotions for senior officers by bringing up their names one-by-one for votes, each of which needed unanimous consent to proceed.

Tuberville objected to all of them. “You just denied this lady a promotion. You did that!” Graham said, holding up a picture of one officer. Sullivan at one point described Tuberville’s holds as a “national security suicide mission” benefiting American adversaries like China’s Xi Jinping or Russia’s Vladimir Putin.“We’re decimating the Navy,” he said as the rebellion entered its fourth hour. So, what next? Ernst said she’d be glad to attempt the same maneuver again in the near future. But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer suggested he might soon call up a resolution to vote on all the blocked nominees at once, which would require support from 60 senators to pass. “Look, patience is wearing thin with Sen. Tuberville on both sides of the aisle,” Schumer said.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

The Democrats who plan to vote for the GOP’s Israel bill

Joe Biden has threatened to veto it. Chuck Schumer has called it “a joke.” And their caucus’ leaders are officially whipping against it. But multiple House Democrats are still planning to vote for the $14.3 billion Israel aid bill Republicans introduced this week, mostly to spare themselves some attack ads, Semafor has learned. The legislation, which pairs military support for Israel with cuts to the IRS budget, is widely seen as an effort to make Democrats in heavily Jewish districts cast an unpopular vote against the aid by loading it with a poison pill. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla. tweeted this weekend that he didn’t want to “take the bait,” and so would vote yes while still criticizing the bill publicly. Others seem to be thinking similarly, while additional members remain undecided (they’re facing some pressure from AIPAC to support the legislation, while the more liberal J Street is lobbying against it). One reason some Democrats feel free to buck leadership and cast a token vote in favor: The bill is almost certainly dead on arrival in the Senate, anyway.

— Kadia Goba

Ukraine admits slow progress

Here’s a headline that won’t make it any easier for Congress to pass more Ukraine assistance: Ukraine’s efforts to repel Russian invaders have reached a stalemate, Kyiv’s top general admitted. Speaking to The Economist, Valery Zaluzhny likened battles between the two countries to World War I and admitted that he had underestimated Moscow’s tolerance for losses of troops. His remarks point to broader frustration over the lack of Ukrainian advances in Kyiv’s much-touted counteroffensive, and the implications for U.S. and European military support, which may wane if there isn’t more progress. One aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told TIME recently that the Ukrainian leader feels betrayed by his Western backers: “They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it,” the outlet said.

— Prashant Rao

China hawk Campbell ascends

President Biden on Wednesday nominated Kurt Campbell, a key architect of his Asia strategy, to be deputy secretary of State. It’s the latest sign the administration is trying hard to keep focused on China amid conflicts in other parts of the world. Campbell, currently the coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs at the National Security Council, has played major roles in brokering the AUKUS pact and the historic Camp David summit between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea — both Biden administration initiatives to build up alliances to counter China’s influence. Politico wrote that his move may “further centralize U.S. competition with China in the State Department’s work.” Campbell’s colleagues point to his experience across government, from State to the Pentagon, and his long relationship with Secretary of State Antony Blinken as assets. “The President’s nomination of Dr. Kurt Campbell is a ten strike,” Wendy Sherman, who Campbell would be replacing, told Semafor. (Sherman left the post in July). Campbell will still need to be confirmed by the Senate but he has Republican allies, suggesting his nomination will move easily. Campbell and Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind. are “friends,” an aide to the senator told Semafor. Young told the Washington Post he would enthusiastically support Campbell’s nomination, calling him “thoughtful. … Hill-savvy and patriotic.”

— Morgan Chalfant

How the Israel-Hamas conflict is dividing the UK

Semafor aims to expose our readers to views they might not otherwise see, and we’ll be running an occasional series here on the ways in which the new Middle East conflict is perceived in other capitals.

The debate in the U.K. over how to respond to the Israel-Hamas conflict has been marked by divisions within leading political parties and mass protests putting pressure on officials to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a staunch backer of Israel, has called for de-escalation and “humanitarian pauses” but has stopped short of calling for a full ceasefire. Meanwhile, within the main opposition Labour Party — which is far ahead in opinion polls with elections due in the next year or so — leader Keir Starmer is under pressure to call for a ceasefire. Starmer took the helm of the party in 2020 and promised to “rip antisemitism out” of Labour’s ranks and purge members over claims of antisemitism that split members in the Jeremy Corbyn era. Since the Hamas attack, Starmer has backed calls for “pauses,” a stance that risks alienating swaths of the left and derailing his journey to Downing Street, Martin Ivens writes in Bloomberg Opinion. More than 20 local Labour politicians have quit the party in protest, and large pro-Palestine demonstrations have filled the streets of London. British history is intimately tied to the conflict — they captured Jerusalem in 1917, made competing promises of statehood to Jewish and Arab nationalists, and withdrew in 1948 as the two sides headed towards war.

— JD Capelouto

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: There is a chance that House Republicans delay consideration of the Israel aid bill due to expected absences, with several Texas lawmakers flying back to their home state today to attend a Donald Trump rally.

Playbook: Following a “monthlong hiatus” for the speaker drama, House Republicans are starting to talk about impeachment again. A large number of Republicans who appeared on”Hannity” last night raised their hands when asked if the House was headed toward impeaching President Biden.

The Early 202: The White House isn’t immediately dismissing the border discussions being led by Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla. Instead, White House officials are in “listening mode.”

White House

• President Biden was confronted by a self-described rabbi calling for a ceasefire in Gaza at a campaign event in Minnesota last night. Biden replied that he supported a pause to “give time to get the prisoners out.”
• Biden is adding another domestic trip to his schedule this week: Lewiston, Maine, where he’ll meet Friday with members of the community impacted by last week’s mass shooting.
• The White House said it will develop a national strategy to counter Islamophobia in the U.S. The announcement was expected last week but was delayed, according to the Associated Press, which reported that “many Muslim Americans are skeptical” of the plans.
• Biden meets separately today with Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader and Chilean President Gabriel Boric, both of whom are in town for the Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit on Friday.

Congress

• Speaker Mike Johnson indicated in a meeting with Senate Republicans that there was not enough support for combining Israel and Ukraine aid in the House, but that they would consider a Ukraine and border security bill. He also said he’d support a continuing resolution through Jan. 15.
• The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the House GOP’s Israel bill — which is supposed to be offset by billions in cuts to the Internal Revenue Service — would actually add $26.8 billion to the U.S. budget deficit.
• The National Association of Manufacturers sent a letter to Senate and House leaders urging them to reinstate a set of business-friendly tax policies like immediate research and development expensing, arguing it will “reinforce America’s competitiveness on the world stage.”
• Reps. Michael McCaul, R-Texas and Mike Rogers, R-Ala. and Sens. James Risch, R-Idaho and Roger Wicker, R-Miss. sent a letter to President Biden calling on him to send longer-range ATACMS to Ukraine, following the administration’s surprise delivery of the medium-range version of the missile system. “Ukraine’s requirement for deep-strike capability remains urgent, particularly to range targets throughout Crimea,” they wrote.
• The Senate finally passed its “minibus” appropriations bill in a 82-15 vote.

Outside the Beltway

• Off-cycle elections in several states next week could have major climate and energy implications, Semafor’s Tim O’Donnell writes. Voters in Texas, for instance, will cast ballots on whether to create a $7.2 billion fund to dole out low-interest loans to support the construction of natural gas-fired power plants.
• A group of big city mayors, including New York City’s Eric Adams, Chicago’s Brandon Johnson and Denver’s Michael Johnston, are heading to D.C. today to urge the federal government to do more to help them handle the influx of migrants into their respective cities.
• Ady Barkan, an attorney and activist who worked to expand health care access, died from complications of ALS. His wife Rachael posted a tribute on X, calling him a “wonderful dad and my life partner” in addition to his advocacy work.

Economy

The Federal Reserve held rates steady, as expected.

Courts

The federal judge in Florida overseeing Donald Trump’s classified documents trial, Aileen Cannon, suggested she might delay the May 20 start date because of its proximity to the beginning of Trump’s federal election interference trial in Washington.

Donald Trump Jr. testified at the civil fraud trial in New York that he wasn’t involved in preparing the Trump Organization’s financial statements.

Foreign Policy

• Sweden’s tourist board launched a lighthearted campaign to distinguish between Sweden and Switzerland, after President Biden mixed the two countries up last year. — Le Monde
• The U.S. and China are preparing to hold nuclear arms talks next week. — WSJ
  

Polls

• Biden acquired two new Democratic challengers in the last month, neither of whom looks too threatening for now. He’s at 77% in a new Quinnipiac University poll of Democratic primary voters, versus 8% for Marianne Williamson, 6% for newly announced Dean Phillips, and 2% for commentator Cenk Uygur, who joined the race last month.
• The most interesting result may be the general election matchups. In a three-way matchup, it’s Biden 39%, Trump 36%, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. at 22% and winning a plurality of independent voters. In a four-way race, it’s Biden 36%, Trump 35%, Kennedy 19%, and Cornel West at 6%.
• The progressive polling firm Navigator released new data today shared first with Semafor that found voters closely split on new Speaker Mike Johnson, with 28% viewing him favorably and 29% unfavorably. But a whopping 43% of registered voters don’t know enough about him to hold an opinion at all, making the early fight to define him a jump ball.

Big Read

The White House and Israel have both discussed replacing Hamas in Gaza with a new governing regime of some kind. In The Atlantic, Hussein Ibish looks at the most-discussed options — the Palestinian Authority, a peacekeeping force from Arab nations, the U.N. — and argues each is a “fantasy” that runs into basic political and logistical problems. “No third party is plausibly willing or able to police and rebuild Gaza on behalf of, and in coordination with, Israel,” Ibish writes.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy spent $12,000 in taxpayer funds on food and concessions at MetLife Stadium, including at a Taylor Swift concert.

What the Right isn’t reading: Former Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., who resigned in 2017 after offering a female staffer $5 million to carry his child, is running for his old seat again in 2024.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Wesley Hunt is a Republican representing Texas’ 38th congressional district.

What’s your biggest policy obsession at the moment?

Spending. I’m the father of three children under 5 years old. I ran for Congress to make sure they don’t inherit our debt crisis and record inflation. We must tackle spending and return fiscal sanity to Washington.

You meet a genie that can make one single bill magically become law. What would it be?

H.R. 2.

Who’s your closest relationship on the other side of the aisle?

Glenn Ivey. Congressman Ivey and I have co-sponsored several pieces of bipartisan legislation together and both sit on the House Judiciary Committee.

What’s the best restaurant in your district/city/etc?

Mastro’s Steakhouse.

What’s at the top of your Spotify playlist?

Rick Ross’ Hustlin’