Principals

1. Democrats move right
2. Brown’s brand
3. Harris on Fox
4. US pressures Israel
5. Expanding Senate map
6. BlackRock scrutiny

PDB: Harris’ approval rating steady

Israel strikes Beirut … More than 328,000 people cast votes in Georgia, almost three times the previous first-day record … Politico: Dems worry Harris’ Pennsylvania operation is poorly run

No matter who wins, the US is moving to the right

Democrats have shifted abruptly to the right this election cycle, Semafor’s David Weigel reports. Facing Donald Trump for the third consecutive election, Democrats have adjusted to an electorate that’s moved to the right on issues that progressives once hoped were non-negotiable — immigrant rights, LGBTQ rights, climate change policies, and criminal justice reform. The shift was on display during Kamala Harris’ recent swing through Michigan, when she told anyone worried about an electric vehicle mandate that she’d “never tell you what kind of car you have to drive.” Still, the threat of a Trump restoration has largely kept progressives in line. “Kamala has come up with a number of important proposals,” Sen. Bernie Sanders said at a recent rally. “Do they go as far as I would like? No. And after she wins, we’re going to sit down and have a nice conversation.”

The most interesting Senate race in America

Ohio used to be the center of every presidential election year. And it still is… for its Senate race, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Sherrod Brown, one of the last red state Democrats in the Senate, is in the race of his life, the most expensive election in the country. He’s less tacking to the center and more maximizing his existing political brand to try and win in what’s become Trump country. “It’s not a finger to the wind thing,” Brown said of his message. His opponent, Bernie Moreno, is as pugilistic as they come, calling Brown a “faux populist.” And though Kamala Harris isn’t really competing in Ohio, Barack Obama is pitching in: We’re told the former president has cut an ad for Brown to use down the stretch.

— Burgess Everett

Harris, Trump set for dueling Fox appearances

Kamala Harris will go today where Democrats generally don’t dare: Fox News. Harris is sitting down with anchor Bret Baier in Pennsylvania, after largely sticking to friendly outlets in her media outreach. Many Democrats say a tougher interview on the conservative network — which was shunned by Joe Biden — is worth the risk: “41% of independents rely on Fox as the No. 1 source of political information,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who called Baier a “very fair interviewer.” Democratic strategist Rodell Mollineau said Harris is showing “she’s willing to meet people where they are to earn their vote.” Other Democrats have ventured on Fox, including Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Tim Walz. Donald Trump’s town hall with an all-female audience will also air today on Fox, before he participates in a Univision town hall in Miami.

— Morgan Chalfant

US presses Israel on Gaza aid

Top US officials pressed Israel to get more aid into Gaza or risk weapons shipments. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sent a letter to their Israeli counterparts on Sunday raising concerns about a dropoff in humanitarian aid and asking Israel to increase aid to Gaza within 30 days. The White House’s John Kirby insisted it “was not meant as a threat” and officials wouldn’t say if military aid would be suspended if Israel doesn’t comply. But the letter references an order President Biden signed requiring countries receiving US military aid to facilitate the transfer of US humanitarian assistance. It “signals the Biden administration doesn’t think Israel is implementing its commitments,” Axios reported. The 30-day deadline falls after the US election — possibly making it easier for Biden “to take stronger action against Israel than he has so far been willing,” The New York Times wrote.

Sergio Ermotti, CEO, UBS; Vincent Van Peteghem, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Belgium; Ali Zaidi, White House Climate Advisor; Lael Brainard, Director, White House National Economic Council; and Amos Hochstein, Senior Advisor to the President for Energy and Investments, White House, will join Semafor’s Fall Edition of the World Economy Summit. Hosted in the Gallup Great Hall and spanning four sessions over two days — Oct. 24 and 25 — Semafor will feature on-the-record interviews on the state of global finance, the future of technology, digital payment infrastructure, and sustainability.

RSVP for the World Economy Summit here.

Dems making new moves in Senate battle

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is launching Florida ads with former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell this week, adding to an expanded effort that also includes Texas. Why now, with the election only three weeks away? With Montana looking tough, Democrats need more pathways to the majority and Republicans Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are the best targets, Semafor’s Dave Weigel and Burgess Everett report. “In both states, the momentum is moving in a way that we like,” DSCC chair Gary Peters said. “So I would expect that we’re going to continue to invest through the end.” Democrats are more upbeat about Texas because of Rep. Colin Allred’s fundraising, while Florida is edging away from Democrats. There’s a third opportunity in Nebraska — but national Democrats are staying away from independent Dan Osborn; their involvement wouldn’t help him.

Giant money managers catch Washington heat

BlackRock is embroiled in a fight with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which is trying to impose new limits on how big asset managers invest in US banks, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman reports. The FDIC — the subject of a separate storm in Washington — is concerned that big money managers like BlackRock and Vanguard have too much influence in corporate boardrooms. The push is backed by both Republicans, who see these institutions as too liberal, and Democrats, who believe they are too big. Earlier this month, the federal agency laid out a proposal to BlackRock and Vanguard that would, for one, require them to notify the FDIC when they acquire more than 10% of the shares of a bank. BlackRock executives called the rules unworkable during a recent call with the FDIC.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The November election will be quickly followed by House and Senate leadership elections. While House Republicans are planning theirs for the week of Nov. 11, House Democrats believe it might be too soon to hold their own leadership elections at the same time. Meanwhile, some conservative senators want the Senate GOP to delay their own contest until candidates can lay out their plans.

Playbook: Not every Democrat is a fan of Kamala Harris’ decision to appear on Fox. Some think her time “would be better spent drumming up the base by continuing to hit those lefty podcasts and shows.”

WaPo: Democrats may well lose the Senate, but it won’t be because of disappointing fundraising. Democratic candidates in tight races outraised their GOP opponents in the third quarter.

Axios: Expect an “epic power struggle” if Donald Trump wins the White House and Democrats win back control of the House in November. But there might be agreement in limited areas, such as China and trade.

White House

• President Biden will give a eulogy at a memorial service for the late Ethel Kennedy this afternoon. He and first lady Jill Biden will also host an Italian-American Heritage Month Reception.
• The first lady celebrated the arrival of the pandas at the National Zoo.

Congress

• The Small Business Administration’s disaster loan program is out of money until Congress approves more funding, the agency said.

Economy

• The EU has drawn up a list of US goods that could be targeted with tariffs if Donald Trump wins the November election and moves forward with his threat to impose new tariffs on European goods. — Bloomberg
• The World Bank voted to free up an additional $30 billion in lending capacity over the next 10 years for developing countries and emerging markets to deal with climate change and other issues. — Reuters
• US banks posted better-than-expected quarterly profits.

Business

• Shares in Dutch chip equipment company ASML fell after the company lowered sales projections.
• Walgreens is closing hundreds of stores.
• Stellantis is planning on building its Ram pickups in Mexico. — WSJ
• JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon said the lender plans to expand its footprint in Africa this year. — Reuters

Courts

• North Carolina GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson sued CNN for defamation over an article about him making racist comments on a porn site.
• A Georgia judge ruled that county election officials can’t refuse to certify election results by the deadline set in law.

Polls

• Kamala Harris’ approval rating sits at 45%, according to new polling from Gallup, virtually unchanged from September. Harris is viewed more positively than President Biden, who has an approval rating of 39%.
• Donald Trump leads Harris by one percentage point in Michigan, according to a new AARP poll.

On the Trail

• First in Semafor: Larry Hogan, running to be the next US senator of Maryland, is out with a new ad self-identifying as “The Maverick.”
• During an interview with Bloomberg News’ John Micklethwait at the Chicago Economic Club, Donald Trump didn’t confirm or deny that he has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin since leaving office, saying only: “If I did, it’s a smart thing.” He also defended his plan for tariffs. Micklethwait said Kamala Harris declined a similar interview invitation.
• Elon Musk has given close to $75 million to his pro-Trump super PAC.
• The Trump campaign is running a new ad nationally, with a particular focus on the battleground states, starting today that highlights Harris’ comments on The View tying herself to Joe Biden, a campaign source told Semafor’s Shelby Talcott. The ad, titled “Global Chaos,” first ran on Fox News yesterday, and declares that “nothing will change with Kamala.”
• Despite not running for reelection, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s campaign spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on travel, including visits to France and Japan, and security during the latest quarter. — Arizona Republic

National Security

• US federal authorities foiled an Election Day terror plot that was directed by ISIS-K. — NBC

Foreign Policy

• Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman is attending the EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Brussels today.

Technology

• Qualcomm is likely to put off a possible bid for Intel until after the election. — Bloomberg

Media

• Donald Trump pulled out of a CNBC interview. A campaign official told Semafor’s Shelby Talcott that the move was prompted by a “scheduling conflict.”

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: House Speaker Mike Johnson accused CBS of “selectively” editing his recent interview on Face the Nation.

What the Right isn’t reading: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggests he will have a significant role on a second Trump’s administration’s health and agriculture policy if the former president wins the election.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Elana Schor, Morgan Chalfant

Reporters: Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Max Tani covers media for Semafor.

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