Flagship

Trump undecided on Iran strike

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday he hasn’t decided whether to join Israel in striking Iran, after Tehran’s leader declared he would “never surrender” following nearly a week of conflict. “I may do it. I may not do it,” Trump said, one of several cryptic remarks he has given about potentially getting involved. While forecasting Trump’s decisions is always a fool’s errand, that he is even considering stepping in “shows how far his version of ‘America First’ has come from its non-interventionist origins,” Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott wrote, reflecting a fractured Republican Party that is giving Trump wildly divergent guidance on the conflict. One Democratic senator called Trump’s position “unstrategic ambiguity.”

Iran unlikely to give up nuclear dream

Iran is unlikely to give up its nuclear ambitions despite Israel’s assault and US pressure, two experts argued. No past, present, or future Iranian regime would abandon its nuclear aspirations, because doing so would severely diminish its regional status, an Iranian history scholar wrote in the Financial Times. Israel’s attacks may have even “reinforced the incentive for the Islamic republic to rush to acquire a nuclear deterrent.” But doubling down is a “very dicey bet and could leave the regime isolated and broke,” akin to North Korea, an analyst wrote in Foreign Affairs: In that sense, Iran’s leaders have already lost their country’s long-term struggle with Israel, as “the regional status quo they established is finished.”

Markets rebound amid wars

Global markets’ quick rebound after Israel attacked Iran reflects a decadeslong pattern of stocks reacting to geopolitical crises, analysts noted. Analysis of 25 major geopolitical incidents going back to the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor found that the impact on the markets was limited and that full recoveries can take just a couple of months, The New York Times wrote. Deutsche Bank analysts concluded that geopolitics “doesn’t… matter much for long-run market performance.” Investors are using the viral catchphrase “nothing ever happens” to capture that sentiment: A Baird strategist told MarketWatch that people tend to forget “that [the event] truly needs to be a surprise for it to really move the needle.”

Fed keeps rates steady, cuts outlook

The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for the fourth straight meeting Wednesday, while cutting the outlook for the country’s economy. The Fed forecast 1.4% annual GDP growth, down from its earlier estimate of 1.7%, and raised its inflation prediction. The decision underscored the central bank’s wait-and-see posture; Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “uncertain” or “uncertainty” more than 15 times in his press conference. While recent inflation readings have been muted, Powell noted that more price increases are expected as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the summer will be critical to determine the path forward. Trump renewed his criticism of Powell, calling him “stupid” for not cutting rates.

Global trade corridors fluctuate

Trade routes and relations are mutating as US tariffs unleash uncertainty and countries make little progress on deals. Global trade is set to grow in the next 10 years, but more than 30% of that volume could move from one corridor to another, according to a new McKinsey report. Some of those shifts are already playing out: With Beijing facing higher US tariffs, more Chinese exports are being diverted to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe, “reshaping economies and geopolitics” in the process, The New York Times reported. The changes are exacerbated by a lack of agreements to ease trade tensions. The G7 summit this week failed to yield new trade pacts between the US and other large economies.

India, Canada reset ties

India reset ties with Canada as fresh strains emerged with the US. New Delhi and Ottawa agreed to reinstate their top envoys and renew visa services after their leaders met during the G7 summit, a major diplomatic breakthrough following a two-year rift over former Canadian premier Justin Trudeau’s accusations linking the Indian government to the killing of a Sikh separatist. But India’s North American diplomatic success didn’t extend to Washington: In a phone call with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi disputed Trump’s insistence that he used trade deals to broker an India-Pakistan ceasefire — a claim the US president repeated just hours later. And Trump’s rare meeting with Pakistan’s army chief Wednesday could further rankle New Delhi.

Nippon closes US Steel deal

Nippon Steel closed a $14.1 billion takeover of US Steel on Wednesday, in a deal that grants the Donald Trump administration an unusual degree of power over the corporation. The agreement, which follows an 18-month push to finalize the purchase, will transform Japan’s Nippon into the world’s second largest steelmaker, and give the company production facilities in the US that will help it avoid high steel tariffs. As part of the deal, the US government was given a “golden share,” allowing it to veto decisions to reduce production or staffing levels. Although Washington had traditionally criticized golden share agreements, the Trump administration may embrace the tool “to drive outcomes consistent with its ‘America First’ investment policy,” one analyst said.

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Companies rebrand DEI programs

US companies are no longer flaunting diversity, equity, and inclusion statements and campaigns, but in many cases are offering the programs under new names. Overt DEI initiatives nowadays are “liable to attract unwanted scrutiny from the Trump administration,” a Wall Street Journal business columnist noted. So companies that still view those goals as important are using strategies to fly under the radar, such as using blander labels like “employee engagement,” or preserving benefits without explicitly promoting them. “Businesses approach DEI in whatever fashion they think is best for the bottom line,” Callum Borchers argued, and some clearly feel that certain elements of DEI are still valuable — but that advertising them is not.

US political shift hits pop music

The American political vibe shift has hit pop music. While last summer was defined by artists like Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, and Charli XCX — whose “brat summer” trend was embraced by Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign — the US charts now feel “far more traditional, and far more conservative,” music commentator Sam Murphy noted: One of 2025’s biggest songs so far, Alex Warren’s folksy ballad Ordinary, went viral as a wedding soundtrack, and country-pop star Morgan Wallen dominates the top 10. It reflects the broader shift toward more traditional ideals as Donald Trump returned to power, with conservative media voices becoming mainstream and companies abandoning progressive positions. “Conservatism is selling sexy,” a right-wing influencer told The Cut. “We are pop culture now.”

This newsletter is ‘Human Written’

A new novel by a Booker Prize-nominated author will feature a stamp on its cover affirming that the book is “Human Written.” Sarah Hall said Helm “took me 20 years to write,” and has previously expressed concern that her other nine books have been used to train artificial intelligence models, which she described as “creative larceny at scale.” A professional body for writers warned last year that “sham” AI books are flooding Amazon and other marketplaces. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will become harder to tell the works apart from traditionally written ones, although some authors may feel it’s a little insulting that readers need to be reassured that they are human.

June 19:

• Australia releases labor market data for May.
• The UK issues an interest rate decision.
• Juneteenth, commemorating the end of slavery, is celebrated in the US.

A new Paris exhibition sets out to prove that despite Cleopatra’s status as a pop culture icon, the Egyptian queen remains an enigma in many ways. Opening at the Arab World Institute, The Cleopatra Mystery includes coins minted in her lifetime that bear her likeness, as well as Renaissance-era paintings, but they leave viewers with the impression that “what we think we know about her is either uncertain or far too simplistic,” Le Monde wrote. The most predictable aspect of the exhibition is Cleopatra’s transformation into a “brand” used to sell “soap, lipstick, or, more unexpectedly, canned sardines,” with one artist expressing her commercial exploitation by covering Cleopatra-branded objects with Swarovski crystals.

Over the last month, four elected Democrats have been arrested, publicly handcuffed, or charged with obstructing law enforcement, the latest being New York City mayoral candidate Brad Lander, Semafor’s David Weigel reported.

Many Democrats have described these as instances of “tyranny,” while the default Republican response is to say that “no one is above the law.”

Republicans like any contrast that puts them on the side of law enforcement, Weigel wrote, no matter who is being cuffed.