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In today’s edition: What’s next for Republicans’ megabill as it heads to the Senate. ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 23, 2025
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Principals

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Today in DC
A numbered map of Washington, DC.
  1. Deficit avoidance
  2. Senate plans changes
  3. Bond mutiny
  4. Rubio v. Grenell
  5. Senators in Ottawa
  6. Global rundown

PDB: Suspect charged in fatal shooting of Israeli embassy staffers

Vance speaks at Naval Academy graduation … US-Iran talks resume in Rome … Dollar weakens

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Programming Note

Principals is taking a break for the Memorial Day holiday. We’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday.

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Semafor Exclusive
1

Republicans sidestep deficit talk

Ron Johnson
Mikaela McGee/DHS

House Republicans passed a sprawling tax and spending bill Thursday that is slated to add some $3 trillion to the United States’ debt — but most of the GOP won’t talk about that, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett report. The party line is that the legislation will spur enough economic growth to eventually narrow future deficits. But few of the proposal’s supporters touted that argument this week — and the handful of fiscal hawks willing to challenge it wound up supporting the bill anyway. Just two House Republicans voted no: Reps. Warren Davidson of Ohio and Thomas Massie of Kentucky. “Congress can do funny math — fantasy math, if it wants — but bond investors don’t,” Massie said. “Isn’t it amazing that the reality hasn’t broken through the rhetoric yet?” Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., told Semafor. “Nobody’s talking about it.”

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Semafor Exclusive
2

How the Senate is treating Trump’s bill

Lisa Murkowski
Annabelle Gordon/Reuters

Senators expect to change the House’s tax and spending bill, but Republicans are leaning toward renovating the legislation rather than tearing it down, Burgess Everett reports. There are a handful of fairly major policy areas likely to come under scrutiny: Medicaid, energy credits, state and local tax deductions, spectrum auctions, and the child tax credit. That said, the two chambers have been coordinating for months on this legislation, so senators aren’t exactly surprised at what the House passed — and the House shouldn’t be too surprised with the projected changes. “You can kind of see the writing on the wall here. You’ve got Republicans in the House that have been able to move something out. You’ve got a Republican majority here, and you have a president who very clearly wants this to pass,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska.

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3

House passage ushers in a bond revolt

A chart showing yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds since 2021.

Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds hit their highest levels since 2007 following the House’s passage of Republicans’ “big, beautiful bill.” The legislation is expected to add at least $3.3 trillion to the deficit by 2034, and raises the country’s debt ceiling by $4 trillion to compensate. It alarmed bond investors, whose pushback to President Donald Trump’s agenda is starting to feel less like a spontaneous protest and more like an organized rebellion. Higher borrowing costs will stretch the budget further: Already, interest payments are set to exceed spending on national defense this year. Spiraling yields “will become a problem quite quickly,” said Adam Abbas, head of fixed income at Harris Oakmark, a division of Natixis. “It’s not a theoretical exercise. The math breaks down… If the market wants to force discipline, it can do that.”

Liz Hoffman

For more of Liz’s reporting and analysis, subscribe to Semafor Business. →

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Semafor Exclusive
4

Rubio contradicts Grenell on Venezuelan oil

Marco Rubio
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

In a rebuke to special envoy Ric Grenell, the Trump administration announced Wednesday night it won’t extend Chevron’s Biden-era license to export Venezuelan oil. The decision, announced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on X, contradicts Grenell’s comments just days earlier, when he said the president would be granting an extension. But Trump hadn’t yet made up his mind, a source familiar with the situation told Semafor: He was busy juggling the return of a hostage from Venezuela and his “big, beautiful bill” vote in the House. A White House official also made it clear to Semafor that the only players making this decision were Trump and Rubio: The two spoke Wednesday evening and decided against the extension, after Grenell’s comments and media reports thrust the topic prematurely into the spotlight.

— Shelby Talcott

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5

Trade talks hang over senators’ Ottawa visit

A chart showing the US’ trade balance in goods with Canada in 2024 and 2025.

A bipartisan group of senators will meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and other top officials this morning in Ottawa, as the US’ northern neighbor chafes at Trump’s trade war. The delegation includes Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., Tim Kaine, D-Va., and Peter Welch, D-Vt. In addition to Canadian officials, the group will meet with the Business Council of Canada and representatives from Canada’s steel and auto industries, a senior Democratic congressional aide said. Trump and Carney got off to a decent start during their Oval Office meeting this month, and US and Canadian officials touted progress following talks on the sidelines of the G7 meeting this week. US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra is hosting the delegation, the aide said, adding that the administration is “welcoming the visit.”

Morgan Chalfant

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6

Global Rundown

Ronen Zvulun/Pool TPX/Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed international hostility toward Israel for the shootings of two embassy staffers in Washington … The US said it would impose sanctions on Sudan’s government over its alleged use of chemical weapons in the ongoing civil war … Artificial intelligence-powered startups in South Korea and Japan are reshaping the countries’ legal industries.

For more global news, sign up for Semafor Flagship. →

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Views

Blindspot: Expulsions and purges

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., introduced a resolution to expel Rep. LaMonica McIver, D-N.J., from Congress after she was charged in connection with a recent scuffle at an immigrant detention facility.

What the Right isn’t reading: The White House has purged official transcripts of President Trump’s public remarks from its website.

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Live Journalism

As electricity demand soars—driven by the rapid expansion of data centers and AI—pressure is mounting to scale secure and reliable energy resources.

Join Semafor for a timely conversation with Rep. Brett Guthrie, R-Ky., and Aamir Paul, President of North American Operations at Schneider Electric, as they discuss how the new Administration plans to accelerate domestic energy production—and whether current infrastructure is up to the task. The discussion will also explore the innovative policies and technologies that could help close the growing supply-demand gap.

June 11, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

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PDB

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: One of Speaker Mike Johnson’s strengths is he doesn’t get angry when other members get angry at him. “I can have somebody completely unload on me, and I can look through that and say, ‘You know what? I love that guy. I love that guy. I love her,’” he said.

Axios: President Trump’s decision to block Harvard from enrolling international students could hurt the US economy; about two dozen unicorn startups were founded or co-founded by international students who went to Harvard.

Playbook: Rep. Jake Auchincloss, D-Mass., a Harvard alumnus, accused the Trump administration of “acting just like the most unhinged of the anti-Israel campus protestors last year –– performative, irrational and cruel.”

WaPo: Democrats think that House Republicans running for other higher offices — like governor — will be damaged by their votes in favor of the sweeping tax bill.

White House

  • The Government Accountability Office accused the Trump administration of illegally halting funding that had been set aside for electric vehicle chargers as part of the bipartisan infrastructure law passed during the Biden administration.
  • Social Security Administration chief Frank Bisignano said he had to Google his new job before taking it. — ABC

Congress

  • Two House Republicans missed the early-morning vote on President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” — including one who fell asleep.
  • The Senate voted to overturn California’s electric vehicle mandate, over objections from the Senate parliamentarian.

Campaigns

  • President Trump has raised $600 million in political donations headed into the midterms. — AP

Outside the Beltway

Damage from a plane crash in San Diego
Mike Blake/Reuters
  • A small plane crashed in residential San Diego, damaging homes and killing as many as six people, including a music industry executive and the former drummer of the metal band The Devil Wears Prada.

Business

  • The crypto billionaire Justin Sun, who’s reportedly been on the run for alleged financial crimes, is the top holder of the $TRUMP memecoin and attended a private crypto reception for President Trump. — WSJ
  • The average crypto dinner attendee spent more than $1 million for their seat. — NBC

Economy

  • Last month was the slowest April for existing home sales in more than a decade.
  • The US Mint has placed its final order of pennies: “The Trump administration says making cents doesn’t make sense anymore.” — AP
A chart showing the production cost of one penny compared to one nickel.

Health

  • Moderna withdrew an application seeking approval for its new combination COVID-19 and flu vaccine, saying it does not expect the shot to be approved until 2026.

Courts

  • The Supreme Court split on whether to allow Oklahoma to use government funds for the country’s first religious charter school, meaning an earlier ruling blocking the idea would stand. Justice Amy Coney Barrett had recused herself from the case.
  • The high court also granted an emergency order lifting a decision that reinstated the heads of the National Labor Relations Board and the Merit Systems Protection Board. The order opens the door for President Trump to fire other heads of federal agencies when the full case is argued before the court, but there is a carve-out preventing him from removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

National Security

  • The Chicago man suspected of shooting two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington was charged with the murder of foreign officials, though additional charges are likely; the killings are being investigated as a hate crime. The man allegedly told police he “did it for Palestine” and called a 25-year-old who self-immolated in protest of the war in Gaza a “martyr.”
  • A woman was shot and wounded after she drove erratically onto the CIA’s headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

Foreign Policy

  • The Trump administration is considering withdrawing thousands of US troops from South Korea and moving them to other locations in the Pacific, like Guam.— WSJ
  • Iran said it will hold the US responsible if Israel makes good on its threat to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. — Al Jazeera

Technology

  • The Justice Department has launched an antitrust investigation of Google over its partnership with a chatbot maker. — Bloomberg
  • Chinese carmaker BYD outsold Tesla in Europe for the first time last month.

Media

  • The Federal Trade Commission demanded documents from Media Matters for America, a progressive media watchdog, and accused it of coordinating with other media organizations to pull ad dollars from Elon Musk’s X. — Reuters

Correction

Yesterday’s Principals misidentified Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., as being from Louisiana.

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

And Graph Massara, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

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One Good Photo

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. prepares for an interview. A “MAHA report” authorized by Kennedy, released on Thursday, blamed environmental chemical exposures and processed foods for Americans’ ailing health. It also misleadingly portrayed medical interventions like vaccines as harmful.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Ken Cedeno/Reuters
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