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South Africa sells arms to Russia says US, Ghana’s EV hopes, Nigeria’s World Bank loan͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
snowstorm Addis Ababa
snowstorm Abuja
sunny Harare
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May 11, 2023
semafor

Africa

Africa
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Yinka Adegoke
Yinka Adegoke

Hi! Welcome to Semafor Africa where we dig into some of the biggest stories around the continent three times a week.

Over the last decade there has been a big drive from development institutions and policymakers to encourage countries in sub-Saharan Africa to move away from cash to digital transactions.

The hope is that going digital will lower daily transaction costs, boost financial inclusion, reduce opportunities for petty corruption, and boost the tax base as smaller transactions get pulled away from an informal cash-based economy. Ultimately, the expectation is that cashless transactions will give a boost to economic growth over time.

It’s no wonder many African countries are considering different paths to digitizing their economy overall and reducing cash transactions in particular. But it’s not so straightforward. In Nigeria earlier this year, reducing cash transactions was meant to be a side benefit of introducing new currency notes. Instead, there were terrible consequences for a plan that didn’t seem to have been clearly thought out. Even carefully staged plans run into trouble with economic transitions. Kaleab Girma reports from Addis Ababa about how Ethiopia saw massive disruption when it tried to get Addis drivers to only pay for fuel without cash.

This is not to say countries shouldnt try to digitize, of course, but that they’ll need to price in the need for citizen education and infrastructure limitations in their plans.

Also in this issue: we touch on breaking news on the U.S. claim that South Africa supplied arms to Russia, Alexis Akwagyiram texts with the always impressive Tokunboh Ishmael on how her fund backs female founders, and Alexander Onukwue looks into why Nigeria is requesting a World Bank loan with just weeks to go till a change in government.

Need to Know

🇿🇼 The Harare High Court overturned the conviction of prolific Zimbabwean author and activist Tsitsi Dangarembga on Monday. The 64-year-old Booker-longlisted writer had been accused of inciting violence by staging a silent protest calling for political reform in 2020. Last year, a magistrates’ court handed her a six-month suspended sentence and fined her 70,000 Zimbabwean dollars ($217). Dangarembga has been a longtime critic of the ruling Zanu-PF party.

Reuters/Philimon Bulawayo

🇳🇬 The United Kingdom’s Supreme Court on Wednesday dismissed a case by a group of Nigerian plaintiffs trying to sue Shell over an offshore oil spill in 2011. The group, comprising 27,800 people and 457 communities living in the southern Niger Delta region, brought forward the case after an estimated 40,000 barrels of crude oil leaked during the loading of a tanker at Shell’s Bonga oilfield, 75 miles off Nigeria’s coast. The court ruled that it was too late to sue as the plaintiffs had brought their case after the six-year legal expiry date.

🇨🇩 The death toll from devastating floods in DR Congo rose to more than 400 this week after aid workers found more bodies among the muddy debris. The floods in the remote, mountainous area of South Kivu province in eastern DRC mark the deadliest natural disaster the country has seen in recent history. The floods demolished houses and crops in the riverside villages of Nyamukubi and Bushushu last week, highlighting the need for better urban planning and stronger infrastructure to withstand the effects of climate change.

🇿🇦 The U.S. alleged South Africa has been providing arms and ammunition to Russia for the war in Ukraine, in a statement on Thursday by the US ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety. He said the U.S was confident that arms and ammunition for the Russian army were loaded onto a Russian cargo ship docked at a naval base in Cape Town last December. “The arming of the Russians is extremely serious, and we do not consider this issue to be resolved,” he told the media on Thursday. On how certain he was of the allegation, Brigety said he would “bet his life on it.” Addressing the National Assembly hours after news broke, President Cyril Ramaphosa responded to questions from opposition members, saying “the matter is being looked into. In time, we’ll talk about it.”

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Stat

The median download speed recorded by Starlink users in Nigeria between January and March this year, according to Ookla, an internet speed data tracker. The recorded speed of Elon Musk’s satellite internet service was higher than the average speed of all other fixed broadband providers in the country (13.48 Mbps). This kind of disparity also exists in the Philippines and Peru where, like Nigeria, Starlink launched in the first quarter. Starlink went live in Nigeria in February, marking the company’s first deployment in Africa. It has also become available in Rwanda.

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Kaleab Girma

Ethiopia’s plan to go cashless runs into money problems

THE SCENE

Credit: Amanuel Sileshi/AFP via Getty Images

ADDIS ABABA — Long lines at gas stations aren’t rare in the capital of Ethiopia; there are often shortages of fuel. But the lines two weeks ago weren’t fuel-related; they were cash-related.

A new government-mandated cashless payment system snarled traffic as drivers found themselves spending hours grappling with account activation, forgotten passwords, and system failures. And while drivers say the system has improved since then, it’s still far from seamless.

Drivers and industry watchers Semafor Africa spoke with were also irritated by the government’s decision to push the use of telebirr, the mobile money platform run by the state-owned telecom giant Ethio Telecom, crowding out possible smaller rivals.

KNOW MORE

Ethiopia, like many African countries, is trying to shift the economy from a cash-based system to a digital one. The goal is to boost financial inclusion among its citizens, increase its tax base over time because digital transactions are easier to track, and boost economic growth overall in the continent’s second largest country by population.

One way it’s doing that is by requiring digital transactions with the government, part of its first-ever National Digital Payments Strategy, published in 2021.

An IT official at a federal institution, who asked not to be named as a public worker, said that their department had currently integrated telebirr exclusively into its system but is working on adding other state owned channels.

KALEAB’S VIEW

Telebirr’s current monopoly harks back to Ethiopia’s old habits as a protectionist state. In the two years since its launch, telebirr has acquired over 31 million subscribers and facilitated more than 379 billion birr ($7 billion) in transactions as of March 23.

During that time, competitor Safaricom, which entered the telecoms market in 2021 as part of Ethiopia’s liberalization of the telecom sector, was shut out of mobile payments; it was only granted a mobile money license today. It marks the first time a foreign investor has been granted a mobile money license in Ethiopia. The Kenyan company said it had spent around $150 million to win that approval, on top of the $850 million for the telecommunications license.

That effectively provided telebirr with a head start to solidify its position before Safaricom’s M-Pesa’s arrival.

The early preference for telebirr could also put other digital payment providers, especially Ethiopia’s homegrown fintech firms, at a disadvantage. Ethio Telecom wields considerable influence and can more easily overcome the country’s lengthy and complicated bureaucratic processes to integrate payment methods compared with local startups. This could handicap Ethiopia’s fintech sector and wider economic development.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Telebirr’s dominant position has been partly achieved through advanced technology, its extensive reach, diverse use cases, and competitive pricing, said Tewodros Tassew, a local fintech consultant. “The notion that telebirr’s success is solely due to government favoritism overlooks these key factors,” he said.

THE VIEW FROM LAGOS

Nigeria’s introduction of redesigned currency notes before general elections earlier in the year was an indirect move to further a cashless policy drive, but instead it sparked widespread frustration which we saw across the country.

At the peak of the crisis in February, multiple bank branches I visited had scores of anxious residents forming long queues around cash dispensing machines desperate to withdraw the small amounts of cash available because most food and bus vendors do not collect payments digitally. The lines were just as long at gas stations due to the drastic reduction in cash collection. Normalcy finally returned in March after the Supreme Court overruled the central bank’s restrictions on the use of cash.

— Alexander Onukwue

NOTABLE

  • Over two-thirds of the federal budget is spent on procurement in Ethiopia. Starting from the next fiscal year, the government has also mandated that all federal institutions must use electronic means for purchases.
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Evidence

Ghana’s Energy Commission is optimistic the stability of its electricity generation is a strong basis for promoting an increase in electric vehicle adoption. Following a baseline survey conducted last year, the commission said Ghana’s electricity access rate of 89%, excess generated capacity of 2,000 MW, and the 35% share of renewable energy sources in the overall electricity mix make the country ready to introduce plug-in electric vehicles. Already, half of a reported 1,055 Ghanaians who own EVs charge their vehicles at home, the commission said in its survey. But the commission cautions that a sudden surge in EVs could overload the grid. It estimates that an increase of 50,000 EVs per year until 2027 will require yearly additions of 350 MW of electricity.

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Briefing

On Nigeria’s last minute $800 million World Bank loan request

Nigeria's Presidency/Handout via Reuters

→ What’s behind the request? Buhari, according to a senate statement, wants to use the money to finance a government social welfare initiative that includes unconditional cash transfers to poor and vulnerable citizens. Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed said in April that the transfers are aimed at cushioning the effect of the planned removal of fuel subsidies. The money would target 50 million Nigerians — around a quarter of the country’s population — who are listed in a national social register.

→ Why is this significant? Nigeria is traditionally Africa’s top crude oil exporter but imports most of its fuel due to a lack of refining capacity. The subsidy regime exists to soften the impact of costly gasoline imports in a country where the statistics agency classifies 63% of the populace as poor. However, the regime — which last year cost nearly $10 billion — has long been criticized for being expensive. A recent World Bank report recommended that Nigeria phase out its “inefficient and regressive” fuel subsidies that benefited “primarily wealthy households.” But labor unions have consistently threatened mass strikes if gasoline prices increase as a result of subsidy removal.

→ What happens next? The onus is now on Nigeria’s senate to approve or decline the loan request timed with just weeks to Buhari handing over office to president-elect Bola Tinubu on May 29. A new senate with a new leadership, though still under the control of the ruling All Progressives Congress party to which Buhari and Tinubu belong, will be inaugurated in June.

Alexander Onukwue

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One Good Text

Tokunboh Ishmael is CEO of private equity firm Alitheia Capital which manages a $100 million gender lens investment fund. Its Alitheia IDF Gender Smart Fund has invested over $40 million in 10 businesses led by female founders creating over 800 jobs.

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Outro

Reuters/Ngouda Dione

Two surfboards and €5,000 were all it took for Pape Diouf to launch a career making Senegal’s first locally produced surfboards. Diouf, 27, sources materials locally and builds the finishings for boards he sells for just over $400 each. Sunugal Surfboards, Diouf’s company, is riding the wave of interest in tourism along the Senegalese coastline and urban beach attractions. He hopes to sell boards for lower than the current price to cater to Dakar’s active community of enthusiastic surfers, some of whom have ambitions to participate in the Paris Olympics in 2024. Orders have started trickling in from beyond Senegal’s shores as well, Diouf said, aligning with his dream to have Sunugal’s boards “everywhere in the world where there are waves to enjoy.”

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— Yinka, Alexis, Marché Arends, Alexander Onukwue, and Muchira Gachenge

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