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The ‘Godfather of AI’ warns of growing risks, the U.S. nears its debt ceiling, and Joe Biden will sk͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
sunny Beijing
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May 2, 2023
semafor

Flagship

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Tom Chivers
Tom Chivers

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The World Today

  1. AI pioneer warns of risk
  2. US nears debt ceiling breach
  3. Euro real-estate sales fall
  4. Striking writers lay down pens
  5. Russia’s bloody months
  6. China air pollution improves
  7. Dubai’s kidnapped princesses
  8. Cuba fuel crisis cancels parade
  9. Violent protests in France
  10. Biden won’t attend coronation

PLUS: A text from Médecins Sans Frontières about Sudan, and the posthumous return of Gabriel Garcia Márquez.

1

Godfather of AI warns of danger

Geoffrey Hinton. WikimediaCommons/Eviatar Bach

The artificial intelligence pioneer Geoffrey Hinton quit Google, in order to speak out about the dangers of his creations. Hinton, sometimes called the “Godfather of AI,” said recent progress worried him, both for its near-term impacts like misinformation, and longer-term fears that AI could be an existential threat to humanity. He had thought smarter-than-human AI was at least 30 years away: “Obviously, I no longer think that,” he told The New York Times. He wants researchers to collaborate rather than race, and praised Google for its own responsible behavior. Meanwhile, IBM plans to replace up to 7,800 jobs with AI, and will pause hiring in back-office roles.

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2

U.S. sets June 1 debt deadline

The U.S. could run out of money and breach its debt ceiling by June 1, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said. Officials have been relying on “extraordinary measures” since January to avoid defaulting on the government’s debt, but those could be exhausted within weeks. Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, argue profligacy must be curtailed, even though they added to the debt during former U.S. President Donald Trump’s time in power. They say any increase to the debt limit must be tied to spending cuts. Experts worry that breaching the ceiling would result in catastrophe for the U.S. and global economy. U.S. President Joe Biden called top Congressional leaders, Republican and Democrat, to a meeting next week to resolve the standoff.

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3

Europe sees real estate crunch

Commercial real estate deals in Europe hit an 11-year low in the first quarter. Rising interest rates, slow economic growth, and several banking collapses reduced investor confidence, the Financial Times reported. Total sales reached nearly $40 billion, 62% below the previous year. There’s a similar story in the U.S.: Semafor’s Liz Hoffman reported recently that now interest rates are up, major investment firms which rushed into real estate are defaulting on loans. American banks are saddled with “bad loans” in commercial property, the veteran investor and Warren Buffett sidekick Charlie Munger told the FT: “There’s a lot of agony out there.”

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4

Hollywood strike begins

U.S. film and television writers went on strike, the first such labor action since 2007. Screenwriters argue their conditions have significantly worsened in the modern era: Studios have reduced the number of writers on some shows, seasons are shorter, and opportunities to earn residual payments have fallen. The body negotiating on behalf of studios said its proposal included “generous increases in compensation … as well as improvements in streaming residuals,” but claimed the writers’ union had demanded “mandatory staffing” levels. Live television and chat shows will likely be affected first by the strike, but Netflix noted that it had a deep pool of international shows that would help it fill any shortfall.

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5

Russia’s heavy war losses

REUTERS/Stringer

Russia has suffered around 100,000 casualties, including more than 20,000 dead, in the past five months of its war in Ukraine, the U.S. said. Half the fatalities were from the Wagner mercenary group, while Russia’s military has “exhausted” weapons stockpiles and its own armed forces. Last year, American officials estimated Russia suffered a similar number of casualties in the first eight months of the conflict, indicating the pace of Moscow’s losses is accelerating. Violence may well mount in the coming weeks, as Kyiv launches its much-touted counteroffensive, which could have impacts far beyond the war, The Atlantic argued in its latest cover story: “This spring, this summer, this autumn, Ukraine gets a chance to alter geopolitics for a generation.”

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6

China clears the air

China’s air pollution improved over the last decade. Air pollution causes about a million premature deaths a year in China, driven by the country’s rapid industrialization: It built hundreds of coal power stations in the last few decades. But since 2004 Beijing has imposed increasingly stringent requirements on those plants, such as forcing them to retrofit their smokestacks with filters. According to Nature, NASA satellite surveillance shows that the level of PM2.5 particulate matter has dropped by about a third since 2013, although it is still well above the World Health Organization’s guideline levels. China’s goal to boost renewable energy should improve matters further.

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7

The kidnap of Dubai’s princesses

Ivan Siarbolin/WikimediaCommons

Emirati princesses who tried to flee the country were kidnapped, beaten, and possibly murdered. A major New Yorker investigation revealed how two daughters of Dubai’s ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum put in place complex plans to escape their father’s rule, but were recaptured, imprisoned, and tranquilized. Another princess was kidnapped from the U.K. and disappeared, before allegedly being killed in 2007. Sheikh Mohammed, who hosted the Global Women’s Forum in Dubai in 2020, promised to “lead the world [in] women’s growth and advancement.” But women in his own family lived in “an open air prison” and were brutally punished for attempting to escape.

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8

Cuba cancels parade over fuel shortage

REUTERS/Alexandre Meneghini

Crippling fuel shortages forced Cuba’s communist government to cancel its traditional Workers’ Day parade. Since the 1959 revolution that elevated Fidel Castro to power, the event had only been canceled twice — in 2020 and 2021 because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Dwindling imports of Venezuelan oil, which had helped prop-up the Cuban economy for more than two decades, have brought the island nation to a halt. Last month Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said the country was only receiving two-thirds of the fuel it needs. To ease the shortfall, Havana has turned to Mexico and Russia, shipping data showed.

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9

French police injured in clashes

REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

More than 100 police officers were hurt in May Day protests against French President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial pension reforms. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets: Police responded with tear gas and water cannon as 291 protesters were arrested. Last month Macron signed a law raising the retirement age from 62 to 64, in line with the European Union average, in response to France’s aging population. Many protesters object that the law was imposed upon them without a democratic vote, while trade unions and radical groups are opposed to its content. Rioters threw petrol bombs, vehicles were set on fire, and the interior minister said one police officer suffered severe burns to the face and hands.

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10

Tradition bars Biden from coronation

UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via REUTERS

U.S. President Joe Biden was invited to, but will not attend, King Charles III’s coronation. It is not a snub, but a tradition: None of Biden’s predecessors have attended a coronation. In the early years of the United States’ existence, it fought two wars with Britain. Relations improved by the time of Queen Victoria’s coronation in 1838, but the president crossing the Atlantic was still impractical. “It just became tradition after that,” a historian told the BBC. Dwight D. Eisenhower did not attend Queen Elizabeth II’s coronation 70 years ago, despite knowing her well. Biden’s wife Jill will attend in his stead.

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Read This

Our boss Ben Smith details the inside story of two online media rivals, Jonah Peretti of HuffPost and BuzzFeed, and Nick Denton of Gawker Media, whose delirious pursuit of attention at scale helped release the dark forces that would overtake the internet and American society. Buy his book — out today! — here.

Read an excerpt about BuzzFeed’s fateful decision — backed by Ben — to turn down a Disney acquisition in 2013, as well as Ben’s account of his decision to publish the Trump-Russia dossier in 2017.

Penguin Press
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Flagging
  • Kenya’s main opposition party to resume protests over high living costs and alleged election fraud.
  • Cuba to host the third round of peace talks between the Colombian Government and the National Liberation Army (ELN).
  • Tony Award nominations, recognizing excellence in Broadway theater, announced.
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One Good Text

Airstrikes have hit Sudan’s capital despite an apparent ceasefire between warring factions of the armed forces, while the U.N.’s refugee agency warned that 800,000 people may flee the country to escape ongoing violence. Avril Benoît, Executive Director of Médecins Sans Frontières U.S., described the worsening situation, and what the world could do to help. Read her full exchange with Semafor Senior Editor Prashant Rao.

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Curio
WikimediaCommons/Festival Internacional de Cine en Guadalajara

An unfinished novel by the late Gabriel García Márquez will be published in Latin America next year. Rumors of unseen manuscripts have swirled since the beloved Colombian author’s death in 2014. His family were earlier believed to be uncomfortable publishing an unfinished work, Book Riot reported. “Reading it once again almost 10 years after his death we discovered that the text had many and very enjoyable merits … his capacity for invention, the poetry of language, the captivating narrative, his understanding of the human being,” his children said. En Agosto Nos Vemos (We’ll See Each Other in August) will be 150 pages long with five separate sections. “It won’t take too long for a translation [in English] to be official,” Book Riot predicted.

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