Principals

1. US-Ukraine fracture
2. SEC pick sits
3. Trump address guests
4. Shutdown clock
5. Tariffs loom
6. Kentucky poll

PDB: Trump’s new Africa adviser

Senate to vote on McMahon nomination and cloture on trans athlete bill … Trump sparks crypto rally ... Anora sweeps at Oscars

US-Ukraine relations on thin ice

Can the US and Ukraine get back on track after Friday’s infamous Oval Office blowup? For now, it’s not looking too promising: Trump administration officials are doubling down on their criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with some openly suggesting he may need to resign. “We need a leader that can deal with us, eventually deal with the Russians, and end this war,” national security adviser Mike Waltz said on CNN. “And if it becomes apparent that President Zelenskyy’s either personal motivations or political motivations are divergent from ending the fighting in his country, then I think we have a real issue on our hands.” European countries are preparing for the worst-case scenario of a US pullback. After a meeting with Zelenskyy, European countries signaled plans to increase military spending and form a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine.

Trump’s SEC pick is in paperwork purgatory

Trump tapped former SEC commissioner Paul Atkins as the next chair on Dec. 2 — but the White House still hasn’t produced the paperwork needed for the Senate to schedule his confirmation hearing, two people familiar with the process told Semafor. That includes Atkins’ financial disclosure, likely a heavy lift given his marriage into a billionaire family. “It’s a lot to go through,” said one former Senate Banking Committee staffer. “But he got named so early on, so I think that’s why people are starting to be like, ‘What the hell’s taking so long?‘” The panel must announce hearings a week out, making Mar. 11 and 13 the next most likely dates. A spokesperson for Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., pointed out that hearings for Atkins’ predecessors, Gary Gensler and Jay Clayton, also happened in March.

— Eleanor Mueller

Who’s invited to Trump’s address

Democrats attending Trump’s Tuesday address to Congress are bringing guests to highlight his administration’s DOGE-driven cuts. Reps. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., and Sydney Kamlager-Dove, D-Calif., will bring laid off USAID employees. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer plans to bring fired VA and USDA workers, a child suffering from a genetic condition who was saved by a now-cut NIH program, and a person who relies on Medicaid. And some are skipping the address altogether. “I attended the inauguration, so I already know what he’s offering: lies, division and fearmongering, and governing by gimmicks,” said Rep. Becca Balint, D-Vt. Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the aisle, House Financial Services Chair French Hill, R-Ark., will take Binance’s Tigran Gambaryan. And Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., plans to bring Silk Road’s Ross Ulbricht — pardoned by Trump after receiving a life sentence.

— Kadia Goba, Eleanor Mueller, and Morgan Chalfant

Lawmakers clash over funding as time runs short

Lawmakers have just 10 legislative days to figure out how to keep the government from shutting down — and there’s no sign of a path forward for a bipartisan compromise. Republican leadership has been lining up behind Trump’s calls to pass legislation extending current funding levels until September. But congressional Democrats have been slamming GOP members for their refusal to work on a shorter extension to buy appropriators time to negotiate yearlong spending bills. “It’s incredibly disappointing that Republican leadership is walking away from bipartisan negotiations to fund the government,” the top Democrats on the Senate and House Appropriations Committees said Friday. House Speaker Mike Johnson said on NBC Sunday that Republicans want Democrats to negotiate on a “clean” continuing resolution through September, and that GOP leaders would try to incorporate DOGE-driven cuts in 2026 appropriations bills.

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump tariffs set to take effect

US tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to take effect Tuesday, though whether at the planned 25% level was unclear. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the White House has not yet finalized the details of penalties to be placed on the country’s two biggest trading partners. Economists warn that the tariffs could accelerate inflation in the US, undermining a key campaign pledge by Trump. Food could get particularly costly: The US has never imported as much food as it does now, with avocados from Mexico representing the largest imported commodity. Trump is likely to address the duties during his Tuesday speech to Congress.

McConnell protégé leads in Kentucky Senate poll

Mitch McConnell protégé Daniel Cameron is the early favorite to succeed him in the Senate, according to a pollster with Cameron ties, citing numbers first seen by Semafor. Polling conducted by co/efficient last week found Cameron, Kentucky’s former attorney general, at 39% in a primary with Rep. Andy Barr (18%) and businessman Nate Morris (3%). Cameron strategist Brandon Moody is a founding partner of the firm, but its numbers in his 2023 bid for governor held up, and its new data finds that his GOP approval numbers are highest with Trump supporters. But Trump has not endorsed in the race, and Cameron and Barr have taken turns distancing themselves from McConnell, whose support might be a liability among the MAGA base. Last month, Cameron called his mentor “just flat out wrong” for opposing Trump nominees like Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth.

— David Weigel

Uncommon Bonds: US support for Taiwan

Republicans and Democrats’ rising anxiety about a possible invasion of Taiwan by China has knitted the two parties together. Partly fueled by cross-aisle angst toward China, US support for the self-governing island has been solid even as other foreign policy issues — like backing for Ukraine — turn into partisan battles. A recent bipartisan resolution reaffirms US support for Taiwan and its membership in international organizations while rejecting Beijing’s “One China Principle.” “Not only is Taiwan a thriving democracy of 23 million people but a hub for the global semiconductor industry that powers everything from your cellphone to your washing machine,” Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair Jim Risch, one of the lead cosponsors, said, adding that helping Taiwan deter Chinese aggression is necessary “to protect the American economy and our way of life.”

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Fifty-six percent of senior Capitol Hill staffers say their boss believes there will be a government shutdown this year.

Playbook: Democrats will try to focus on the impact of President Trump’s policies as he delivers his address on Tuesday, and aren’t planning a mass walkout. “A protest isn’t going to win us the next election,” said Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif.

WaPo: The Trump administration is waging “an unprecedented attack” on the IRS in the middle of tax filing season.

Axios: Legendary investor Mary Meeker says the US “focus intensively on local private company outsourcing,” to find real productivity gains.

White House

• President Trump signed an order to make English the United States’ first official language.
• Trump’s blow-up with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy triggered rare Republican criticism. “I am sick to my stomach as the administration appears to be walking away from our allies and embracing [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, a threat to democracy and U.S. values around the world,” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, wrote on X. The Wall Street Journal’s conservative editorial board called it a win for Putin.

Congress

• Sens. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., and Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., each said they regret voting to confirm their former colleague Marco Rubio as secretary of state earlier this year.
• Senate Democrats will hold a press conference today to highlight Elon Musk’s comment likening Social Security to a “Ponzi scheme.”

Outside the Beltway

• Andrew Cuomo is officially running for New York City mayor.

Business

• Business groups are quietly raising concerns about the Trump administration’s plans for workplace immigration raids. — Axios

Economy

• President Trump has directed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to look into imposing tariffs on timber and lumber products.
• On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted on CBS that inflation would fall to the Fed’s 2% target “very quickly.” Meanwhile, on Fox News, Lutnick suggested government spending could be broken out in the administration’s GDP reports, potentially warping a key economic indicator.
• Polls suggest Americans want to see Trump do more to address inflation.

Health

• HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine skeptic, wrote approvingly of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine in an op-ed for Fox News on Sunday, as a deadly measles outbreak rages in the Southwest. “Vaccines not only protect individual children from measles, but also contribute to community immunity,” Kennedy wrote, though he added that “the decision to vaccinate is a personal one.”

Courts

• A federal judge ruled that President Trump’s ouster of Hampton Dellinger as the head of the Office of Special Counsel was illegal.

National Security

• Brendan McNamara has joined the National Security Council as director for African affairs, a person familiar with the matter told Semafor’s Mathias Hammer. McNamara has previously worked for US Africa Command and Space Command, and said last year Washington should encourage US private military companies to get involved in counterterrorism missions in the Sahel.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Pentagon civilian employees last week to comply with a second email directing them to describe their work.

Foreign Policy

• Israel stopped all humanitarian aid shipments into Gaza as the first phase of its ceasefire with Hamas expired, with both sides now at an impasse over what happens next.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the US Cyber Command to pause offensive cyber operations against Russia. — The Record

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

And Graph Massara, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Emily Randall is a Democratic congresswoman from Washington.

A 12-hour journey in a Cadillac Escalade, equipped with General Motors’ hands-free driving technology, changes what it means to go on a long family road trip, and puts transportation in a long-promised and long-delayed new era, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti writes.

There are a lot of autonomous driving systems on the road today, but only a small handful allow hands-free operation. Even Teslas require drivers to hold onto the wheel. That small difference is, surprisingly, a game changer on a long drive, leaving you able to relax in comfortable positions — and creating the potential for an entirely new road trip experience, Reed notes.