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In today’s newsletter, the private sector looks to cash in on Trump’s deportation push. And the end ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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February 6, 2025
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Business

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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi, and welcome back.

What do we even mean when we talk about Big Business? The last of America’s great industrial conglomerates, Honeywell, is breaking up, while Elon Musk is a one-man branch of government. As I wrote last week: “The headline might be that OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank are investing $500 billion into America’s AI sector, but it’s really Sam Altman, and Larry Ellison, and Masayoshi Son.” Other stakeholders are along for the ride. The Chamber of Commerce may fight corporate America’s lobbying battles, but it no longer speaks for the center of power.

Part of the explanation is that these men are really rich, and a decade of undiscipline in the capital markets gave them historically unusual levels of control over their companies. But it’s more than that. The same shift in power and influence away from institutions and toward individuals — seen most clearly in media and politics, where legacy brands and party apparatus are losing sway to breakout stars — is happening in business.

Big companies are leaning into the Trump administration, hoping to grab a corner of its spotlight. They want other things, too — deregulation, tax cuts, and contracts to perform at least some of the functions that DOGE is pushing out of the federal government. (USPS by Amazon, anyone?)

In today’s newsletter: A scoop on such a contract is on the table. Plus, a Delaware court ruling that further empowers the Musks and Zucks of the business world, and a sum-of-the-parts look at America’s dismantling conglomerates.

Buy/Sell

➚ BUY: Roadblocks. US lawmakers are proposing a bill to keep DeepSeek’s chatbot off government phones, and the Trump administration agreed to temporarily boot most of Elon Musk’s DOGE staffers out of Treasury payments systems.

➘ SELL: Roblox. Shares of the gaming company fell as much as 20% today after the company issued a weak growth forecast, sparking investor fears that its Covid boredom boom is fading.

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The Tape

Andreessen Horowitz hires MAGA hero… BoE cuts rates as economy stalls… Tariffs hit Bombardier… Truce hopes boost Ukraine bonds… Nissan seeks new M&A partner after Honda walks… Restaurants are charging egg fees

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Trump Watch

The Trump administration is in talks with a private shipping-container company to provide temporary space to house and process thousands of migrants slated for deportation, Semafor’s Rohan Goswami and Shelby Talcott scoop.

US Immigration and Customs Enforcement is in discussions with Phoenix-based Willscot about leasing the company’s mobile structures to house undocumented detainees, people familiar with the matter said. Willscot’s products are commonly used as construction-site storage and office space.

A DHS handout photo shows migrants being loaded.
DHS/Handout via Reuters

One of the people familiar with the matter said officials may use the mobile structures to house thousands of migrants at facilities along the southern border or at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, where Trump, via executive order, is looking to send up to 30,000 migrants with criminal records.

The talks show how Trump’s agenda carries both opportunities and risks for companies. Tariffs have complicated supply chains and raised costs. But DOGE’s plan to massively shrink the government will allow more private businesses to move in.

Read on for the full scoop. →

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Matter of Policy
JAB Senior Partner Anant Bhalla.
Daniel McKnight

JAB Holding, the largest investor in Krispy Kreme and Pret A Manger, is buying insurer Prosperity Life for just over $3 billion, Semafor scooped on Wednesday.

Life insurance policies and related retirement products have become, surprisingly, the liveliest corner of finance. They bring in money today that can be invested for decades, making them catnip for Wall Street investment shops tired of traditional fundraising slogs.

Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, Blue Owl, and Brookfield have all bought or built insurance businesses, and rivals that don’t yet have an insurance arm are scrambling to buy one. TPG, which held talks with Prosperity last year, remains on the hunt, people familiar with the matter said.

Read more from Liz on Wall Street’s hottest new trade.  →

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World Economy Summit

Semafor’s 2025 World Economy Summit will bring together US Cabinet officials, global finance ministers, central bankers, and over 200 CEOs of the world’s largest companies. Coinciding with the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, the annual summit will feature on-the-record discussions with top executives such as Nandan Nilekani, Co-Founder and Chairman, Infosys; Alex Chriss, President and CEO, PayPal; Anthony Capuano, President and CEO, Marriott International; Tim Wentworth, CEO, Walgreens Boots Alliance; Ynon Kreiz, Chairman and CEO, Mattel; and Beth Ford, President and CEO, Land O’Lakes Inc.

Apr. 23-25, 2025 | Washington, DC | Join Waitlist

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Sum of the Parts

Honeywell said it would split into three companies, an end to one of the few remaining US industrial conglomerates. It will separate its automation and aerospace businesses, in addition to an earlier announced spinoff of its materials arm.

Conglomerates have gone out of fashion with investors who want companies to focus on what they do best. Executives, who generally get paid more to run bigger firms, are acquiescing. In a recent EY survey, 53% of CEOs said they intend to pursue a spinoff in the next year, up from 44% in September.

Comcast and Warner Bros. Discovery are spinning off their cable businesses, Swiss construction giant Holcim is spinning off its North American business, and GE last year completed a multiyear breakup of its once-proud industrial empire.

That one has gone exceptionally well: The three GE pups are worth $200 billion more separately than they were as one company. The energy spinoff, GE Vernova, was one of the best-performing stocks of 2024.

Elliott Management, which had pressured Honeywell down this road, saw at least $60 billion in upside for shareholders in the split.

A chart showing the market capitalization since 2015 of General Electric, GE Healthcare and GE Vernova.
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Home Improvement
SpaceX’s Starship rocket is pictured after launching as seen from South Padre Island near Brownsville, Texas
Gabriel V. Cardenas/Reuters

A Delaware court ruling this week makes it easier for companies to redomicile elsewhere — just at the moment that Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and others are considering doing so.

The backstory: Media mogul Greg Maffei, who has 43% of TripAdvisor’s voting power, decided to move the company’s legal home from Delaware to Nevada, which is friendlier to controlling shareholders. A small investor cried foul. The state’s highest court sided with Maffei.

Its ruling is, on paper, narrow. It only applies to companies where one powerful shareholder can swamp the will of other investors, and where that shareholder chooses to reincorporate the company in another state.

But that is weirdly the story of corporate America right now! A handful of men who control big companies are moving them, largely out of personal political leanings, to MAGA-friendlier climes. Zuckerberg controls Meta, which The Wall Street Journal reported is considering moving to Texas. Bill Ackman, whose conservative awakening has captivated Wall Street, is moving his hedge fund to Nevada. Musk reincorporated both Tesla and SpaceX in Texas, as he complained about Delaware courts and California transgender laws.

“If you think it’s a better legal framework for your company to operate in, that’s fine,” Robert Anderson, a professor of corporate law at the University of Arkansas law school. “If it’s for your benefit, that’s a problem.”

But the line between the corporate interests of these firms and the personal whims of the men who control them is fuzzy. Is Zuckerberg’s MAGA turn in the sun in his company’s corporate interests? Musk’s certainly has been: Tesla stock is up 77% since Musk joined Trump on stage at a rally in October. Ackman’s anti-woke turn has made him hundreds of millions of dollars.

This ruling couldn’t have come at a more relevant moment. It puts the onus on Meta to make a business case for moving to Texas, which is where things get really interesting.

We wrote last week about key-man risk. Here it is in action.

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Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor Principals.US President Donald Trump.
Leah Millis/Reuters

President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is having an identity crisis: Does “America First” mean avoiding overseas engagements — or pursuing them when they further US interests?

Semafor’s Kadia Goba spoke to Republican lawmakers about Trump’s expansive foreign policy as he floats US control of Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada and Gaza, though only a few in the GOP publicly acknowledged the tension. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., posted on X after Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza that “I thought we voted for America First.”

Subscribe to Semafor Principals, a daily briefing that covers your blindspots inside Washington’s halls of power. →

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