Principals

1. Lloyd Austin’s hospital controversy
2. Congress unveils budget deal
3. Border deal on the way?
4. Trump’s Iowa push
5. What about Haley’s gaffes?
6. Biden’s Black voter issue
7. More Jan. 6 revelations

PDB: Biden campaign brings political reporters to Delaware campaign HQ for off-the-record visits

Senate returns to D.C. … Blinken in UAE, Saudi Arabia for talks on Gaza war… Caucus day forecast for Des Moines: High of 7 degrees

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Defense secretary under scrutiny for mysterious hospital stay

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin finds himself in an uncomfortable spotlight this week thanks to a mysterious hospital visit that was kept under wraps. The Pentagon chief was admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center on Jan. 1, where he landed in the intensive care unit due to complications from a still-undisclosed elective surgery. But the White House didn’t find out until three days later. Ditto Austin’s No. 2, Deputy Secretary Kathleen Hicks, who was kept out of the loop even though she had taken over some of his responsibilities, CNN reports. Austin didn’t tell staff they should notify other people when he was admitted, according to Bloomberg. Compounding that, his chief of staff was sick with the flu last week and didn’t notify anyone. Although the episode has led to speculation about the future of Austin’s job, President Biden spoke with the former general on Saturday and a White House official told Semafor the president “has full confidence” in the secretary. Evelyn Farkas, a former top Pentagon official under Barack Obama, told Semafor she thinks the controversy will “blow over because there were no real-world consequences.” Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Sunday evening that Austin was still hospitalized and the Pentagon has no “specific date” when he will be released, though the secretary resumed his duties from the hospital on Friday.

— Morgan Chalfant

Who won what in the new budget deal

House and Senate leaders unveiled a deal on Sunday to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year, less than two weeks before the deadline for a partial government shutdown. So, who came out on top? “Both sides can identify some wins and that’s part of the point,” Andrew Lautz, a senior policy analyst at the Bipartisan Policy Center, told Semafor. Democrats are pleased that the deal keeps the same basic spending levels negotiated in last year’s debt ceiling agreement: $886.3 billion for defense and $772.7 billion for domestic spending, including a $69 billion side deal that helped preserve social programs. But Republicans sped up cuts to the IRS budget — the agency will now face a $20 billion cut over one year, instead of two — and recouped $6 billion in unspent COVID funds. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the compromise is being greeted with fury by hard-right lawmakers. “This is total failure,” the House Freedom Caucus wrote on X. The complaints prompted a wry retort from Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga.: “Are we learning that negotiating with the Democrats in the White House and Senate with a slim majority is hard and you can’t get everything you want, no matter who is in the Speaker’s office?”

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Border deal text could land this week

The Senate’s bipartisan border enforcement group could be closing in on a deal that paves the way for legislative text to be released this week, according to one of the GOP negotiators. “Everybody will have time to be able to read and go through it,” Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., told “Fox News Sunday,” adding that “no one’s going to be jammed in this process.” (Lankford is scheduled to visit a Republican Study Committee lunch on Wednesday to update House lawmakers on the talks, per RSC spokesperson Miranda Dabney.) The potential breakthrough follows nearly two months of bipartisan talks on designing stricter border measures, which Republicans have demanded in return for backing more aid to Ukraine. One Senate aide close to the negotiations described the group as being at the “ten-yard line,” though there were still obstacles remaining to a deal. New details of what an agreement might include are emerging: CBS News reported on Sunday that the White House is now considering new restrictions on its parole authority, which lets the government temporarily admit people into the U.S. on humanitarian grounds. Word of those potential concessions is already fueling anger among immigration advocates. “If @POTUS caves on parole, and gives Republicans everything they want, then the promise of immigration reform that Democrats have made for the past two decades is truly dead,” Andrea R. Flores, a former Biden administration official, wrote on X.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Donald Trump’s uneventful Iowa campaign

Add this to the list of political norms and precedents that Donald Trump has shattered: Campaigning in Iowa. Rival Ron DeSantis completed the “Full Grassley” — the traditional 99-county tour of the state — and Vivek Ramaswamy did it twice over. Trump visited 18 times last year and did far fewer events even as his share of the GOP vote ballooned in polls. As Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports, that’s changing in the final days, as Trump schedules a series of last-minute rallies and a Fox News town hall to counter Wednesday’s debate. Trump himself blamed his 2016 Iowa caucus loss on his decision to snub a late debate, but there’s little sign of backlash to his scheduling choices this time — even as he’s also feuded with the state’s pro-DeSantis governor and refused to sign onto pledges from typically influential anti-abortion activists. “They’re introducing themselves for the first time,” a person close to the campaign said of his rivals. “He’s introducing himself for the third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, or eighth time.”

Nikki Haley’s bumpy landing in Iowa

Nikki Haley’s pitch that she’s the electable alternative to Trump is running into a recurring problem: Gaffes. The typically poised veteran pol has drawn the wrong kind of attention with a series of stumbles in the final stretch before Iowa, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott and David Weigel report, raising questions about her ability to hold up under heightened scrutiny. There was her town hall answer on the cause of the Civil War that omitted slavery, as well as her cleanup response, in which she bragged about her “Black friends,” a cliche often criticized as patronizing. But she also told New Hampshire voters they could “correct” the Iowa caucus results — which Team DeSantis quickly portrayed as an insult to Iowans — and mixed up the names of Iowa basketball goddess Caitlin Clark and CNN host Kaitlan Collins at a town hall. Of course, it all sounds like an average afternoon on Truth Social for Trump, who had his own Civil War moment last week (he said it could have been “negotiated” instead). But Trump has proven political gravity works differently around him — for Haley, that’s yet to be seen.

Who is Joe Biden’s voice in Black America?

President Biden is in Dallas, Texas today to honor the late Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson. Some Black Democrats in the state tell Semafor’s Kadia Goba they wish they heard from him more, though — or at least someone who can speak on his behalf. “I mean, you look at a place like Texas, where you have one of the largest Black populations in the United States, there aren’t a bunch of Biden administration champions running around,” Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee told Semafor. As the president’s Black support slips in the polls, supporters say it’s more urgent than ever that the campaign find surrogates who can sell his record where it counts. “You’ll show up in the suburbs because you know they’re going to give you dollars, but the people in the hood are going to give you the votes,” Frederick Nickens, secretary of the Texas Coalition of Black Democrats, said. Vice President Harris delivered an address on voting rights in South Carolina over the weekend and the campaign has made early investments in outreach, but it’s not just Texas Dems raising the alarm: Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C. told CNN he was “very concerned” the president’s message wasn’t breaking through to Black America.

What we learned on this year’s Jan. 6 anniversary

The Jan. 6 attack’s three-year anniversary brought new revelations about Donald Trump’s conduct that day — and reminders of how his allies continue to downplay it. Longtime Trump aide Dan Scavino told federal investigators the former president “was just not interested” in doing more to stop the violence at the Capitol as it grew worse, ABC News reported. Another aide, Nick Luna, said Trump’s response to learning that Vice President Mike Pence had to be taken to a secure location was “So what?” The Justice Department also released footage of Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas confronting a rioter in the House chamber that afternoon. “I’ve been in law enforcement in Texas for 30 years, and I’ve never had people act this way,” Nehls says. “I’m ashamed!” Top House Republicans had a different tone this weekend. Speaking on NBC, House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y. echoed Trump by saying she was concerned about the federal government’s treatment of jailed Jan. 6 rioters — she referred to them as “hostages” — and wouldn’t commit to certifying the 2024 results.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: A House floor vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas could come as soon as later this month and it’s likely to pass. Some Democrats may vote in favor of it or skip the vote.

Playbook: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will spend seven figures on a ground game to help two of the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle, Sens. Jon Tester, D-Mont. and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, keep their seats.

The Early 202: The emerging Senate immigration deal would give the Biden administration a new authority to expel migrants at the border, speed up family removals, and tighten credible fear standards, but it’s still unclear if parole will be addressed in the agreement.

Axios: Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick raised $5.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 for his bid to oust incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa.

White House

President Biden will deliver a speech at Mother Emanuel AME Church, the site of a 2015 mass shooting in Charleston, before leaving for Dallas to attend a memorial for the late former Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Texas.

Congress

• The Senate returns from the holiday break this evening, and will take a procedural vote on one of President Biden’s judicial nominees, John Kazen. The House gets back to work tomorrow.
• House Republicans are moving forward with a resolution to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress, after he skipped a scheduled deposition as part of the House Oversight Committee’s investigation.
• Speaker Mike Johnson invited Biden to deliver the State of the Union address on March 7.
• The House Republican majority will be even smaller this month: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. is out receiving a stem cell transplant to treat his cancer.
• Youngstown State University is facing some backlash from donors and alumni for hiring Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio as its next president, in part over his ties to Trump.
• Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo. is under police investigation, reportedly over an alleged physical fight with her ex-husband that transpired Saturday at a restaurant in her district. — The Daily Beast
• Former top federal health official Anthony Fauci will sit for a transcribed interview before the House select committee investigating the COVID-19 pandemic response today and tomorrow.

Courts

• Outgoing National Rifle Association chief Wayne LaPierre’s civil trial in New York kicks off today, days after he announced plans to step down from his role at the end of the month. The state’s attorney general has accused LaPierre of misusing the gun rights group’s cash to fund a lavish personal lifestyle.
• The Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether Donald Trump can be kept off the ballot in Colorado on Feb. 8.

Outside the Beltway

Days after House Republicans made a trip to the southern border, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is headed to Eagle Pass, Texas today.

Media

• On the final episode of his MSNBC show, Mehdi Hasan announced he’s also leaving the network.
• President Biden’s reelection campaign has organized off-the-record trips for top political reporters and editors to visit its headquarters in Wilmington, Del. and meet with top officials. The campaign has also used the visits as an opportunity to point out where they believe coverage has fallen short, Semafor’s Max Tani reports.
• Al Jazeera accused Israel of carrying out a “targeted killing” resulting in the death of two of the broadcaster’s Palestinian journalists, with Israel saying only that it was aware of such reports.
• Why are Americans so bummed about the economy? A recent Brookings study suggests the media might be playing a role. It finds that over the last several years the tone of economics news coverage has become more negative than you’d expect based on factors like the unemployment and inflation rates.

Transportation

The Federal Aviation Administration instructed airlines to ground certain Boeing 737 Max 9 planes for inspections, after a harrowing incident aboard an Alaska Airlines flight when a piece of the plane blew out mid-flight and forced the pilot to make an emergency landing. Other countries have also moved to ground the planes.

National Security

• The Department of Homeland Security has released over 2.3 million migrants into the U.S. who crossed the southern border under President Biden. In total, over 6 million migrants were taken into custody by Customs and Border Protection during that time.
• The bipartisan leaders of the House select committee on China are urging the Biden administration to do more to impede China’s dominance in the production of older generation microchips, including potentially imposing new tariffs. — WSJ

Foreign Policy

• U.S. intelligence believes that China’s military purge was triggered by widespread corruption. In one instance, Chinese missiles were reportedly filled with water as opposed to fuel. — Bloomberg
• China sanctioned five American defense companies over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
• A new book from the Indian foreign minister will likely be well received by D.C.: Why Bharat Matters, largely a collection of S. Jaishankar’s speeches and public comments, argues India must be “unsentimental” in its rejection of China’s framing of “Asia for Asians” and of anti-Western rhetoric from parts of India’s ruling party. It is forceful in supporting the Quad, and describes U.S. allies such as Australia as having “critical value” to India. “India may be non-West, but must realise that there is little profit in being anti-West,” he writes.

Polls

• A majority of U.S. voters believe Congress should pass legislation to regulate artificial intelligence this year, according to new polling from the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute shared first with Semafor. Eighty-two percent of respondents said they want Congress to consider policy on AI-generated images known as “deepfakes,” while 71% support requiring political ads watermark content created using AI, according to the survey.
• Views of Israel have grown more negative in several countries since the war in Gaza, according to a new report from Morning Consult out this morning. Attitudes in China, South Africa, and Latin America moved from net positive to net negative, while already negative views grew more so in Australia and Canada. The U.S. is the only major developed country Morning Consult looked at where public views of Israel are staunchly positive.

2024

Quentin Fulks, the principal deputy campaign manager of President Biden’s reelection effort, said on NBC that Biden’s priorities if he wins a second term would be: restoring Roe v. Wade, banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, capping the cost of insulin, and more student loan debt forgiveness.

Big Read

The U.S. is facing its greatest wave of COVID-19 infections since the omicron variant in late 2021. The medical researcher Eric Topol writes in the Los Angeles Times that about 2 million Americans are being infected each day with the now dominant JN.1 strain, while in Europe numbers have even exceeded omicron’s peak, judging by levels detected in wastewater. Topol says booster uptake is low and there is little sense of urgency from the White House to push it at the moment.

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A judge in Wyoming dismissed an effort to remove Donald Trump from the state’s election ballots under the 14th Amendment.

What the Right isn’t reading: New Mexico’s Supreme Court will hear arguments on a challenge to a state order banning guns from public parks and playgrounds, which Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said is necessary because gun violence is a public health issue.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Bruce Hoffman is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a counterterrorism expert. He and Jacob Ware are the authors of the new book God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America.