The News
Washington is riveted by a clash between two powerful forces: the hard-fought policy goals of Republican factions versus the political will of President Donald Trump.
The GOP is spinning its wheels over the current draft of Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which doesn’t do enough for high-tax-state Republicans, doesn’t cut enough for deficit hawks, and goes too far on Medicaid for plenty of others. For Trump, the delay is a buzzkill that could reveal the limits of his power — and is a hindrance to scoring the wins he promised on the campaign trail.
Trump usually comes out on top in this type of conflict; he easily overcame opposition to reelecting House Speaker Mike Johnson and passing a stopgap government funding bill. Then the GOP Congress deferred still more of its power to Trump on his Cabinet, his tariffs and his unilateral reshaping of the federal government.
But the party-line megabill that’s now wobbling in the House is an outlier. The “big, beautiful bill” is the first real opportunity for Republican wonks, committee chairs and battleground-seat majority-makers to write a law.
Which is why Trump’s visit to the House on Tuesday did not have an immediately decisive effect, as he and Johnson seek to muscle through the legislation before the weekend.
“Trying to browbeat us in front of the conference, it wasn’t a smart idea,” Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., who is holding out for more state and local tax relief, told Semafor. “It just made, I think, the [likelihood] of getting this bill passed harder this week.”
For Trump, it’s perhaps the ultimate test of his second-term power, after he scrapped back to the presidency despite two impeachments, a lost election, and a phalanx of fellow Republicans who thought the party might move past him. Now he wants GOP lawmakers to cast aside their doubts about the legislation in front of them.
The SALT deduction? It shouldn’t hold up the bill. Changes to Medicaid? As long as they’re focused on “waste, fraud and abuse,” they’re good enough for Trump. The growing debt? Something for another day (“zippo” was said about the deficit in Tuesday’s meeting, said one House Republican).
And he’d definitely like Congress to lift the debt ceiling for a couple of years, no matter how anathema such a vote is to many conservatives.
“You don’t want to get to the point where you just become frozen and therefore don’t act,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., told Semafor. “Something will pass. I don’t know what it will look like. I can’t tell you that I’ll vote for it. But I’m looking for a reason to.”
Trump’s message to House Republicans was that the Senate is going to change the bill anyway — so they might as well pass it now.
Trump said “the time for debating, for negotiating is over,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said at an Americans for Prosperity event on Tuesday.
Even so, Scalise added, “we’ve got members in the room that are still trying to negotiate. … We’d be voting next February if some people got their way.”
Still, some House Republicans said they were unmoved on Tuesday. Unfortunately for Trump, they might be easier to convince than stubborn senators. The Senate, famously, killed Trump’s Obamacare repeal attempt in 2017 after the House passed it.
“He’s the most persuasive. There is no substitute,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va, who used to serve in the House, said of Trump.
But “individual senators maybe tend to be a little more obstinate, and successfully so,” she added. “Because there’s only 100 of us, and we don’t have the pressure of running every two years.”
Know More
Trump’s most effective argument on Tuesday was that his party should play team ball. He wants the debt ceiling increased in the party-line legislation to keep away a “leverage point for the Democrats,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D.
It’s an argument that works with plenty of Republicans — but enough of them to pass both chambers of Congress? That remains unclear.
Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., viewed as the firmest “no” vote in the Senate GOP, told Semafor that if Republicans “take the debt limit out, I’ll support it.”
During Tuesday’s meeting, the president pivoted between lighthearted jabs at holdouts and urging those same members to abandon long-held positions in favor of projecting unity.
Even as he singled out Reps. Mike Lawler of New York and Thomas Massie of Kentucky, the jokey nature of Trump’s House speech charmed members — and he successfully moved some like Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., closer to “yes.”
But the scarcity of detail around issues like Medicaid may have also drawn out some hard decisions.
The legislation includes requirements for some beneficiaries to make co-pays and to restrict the provider tax that some states use to increase the federal share of certain Medicaid payments.
A White House official declined to directly address the provider tax and co-pay proposals, but said that Trump only wants the bill to include work requirements, to bar undocumented immigrants from the program, and end waste, fraud, and abuse.
There’s just one problem: That last phrase means different things to everyone. Asked if the bill’s current language goes beyond “waste, fraud, and abuse” cited by the president, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said “yes.”
But Burchett told reporters after Trump’s remarks that he “understood” that reductions to the federal share of spending on Medicaid were still on the table. And Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris, R-Md., said Trump “will not mind” additional changes.
The comments were in sharp contrast to those from GOP leaders, who insisted that Trump’s primary message was to take the deal on the table — including SALT and Medicaid.
“He feels like, ‘We found a really good sweet spot everybody. Let’s move forward,’” Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, told Semafor.
Burgess, Eleanor and Kadia’s View
Is this the moment congressional Republicans reject Trump? We’re understandably skeptical.
Scalise said he could fill a file with all of the “obituaries” written about the GOP’s party-line bill so far.
On the other hand, Trump may underestimate GOP lawmakers’ hopes to leave a real mark on this bill — particularly during a Congress that has otherwise been strikingly deferential to the White House.
And Republicans know the speaker invented the Memorial Day deadline for passage in the House, so they feel more comfortable using their leverage today than they will in December.
Room for Disagreement
Some Republicans saw progress on Tuesday. Dusty Johnson said that though he was “not suggesting that everything is hunky-dory,” he saw Trump’s speech getting the party “closer to the finish.”
And there are plenty of middle-of-the-road members who were already happy with the bill as-is. Changes that win over fiscal hawks would also risk isolating the GOP conference’s more silent majority.
“If we cut enough money out of the federal budget right now, which is what some of my friends advocate, you’d create riots in the streets,” Rep. Frank Lucas, R-Okla., told Semafor.
As for confidence in the speaker, his fans said he’s got a hot hand. After convening his conference with Trump, Mike Johnson visited with Senate Republicans on Tuesday. Many of them left the room impressed.
“He has delivered what was seemingly impossible, three times, with two budget resolutions and a [stopgap spending bill] to the end of the fiscal year,” said Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont.
Shelby Talcott contributed.
Notable
- Mike Johnson doesn’t want the Senate to change his bill too much, per Axios.
- Massie thinks his colleagues will cave, CNN reports.