Principals

1. Colorado court boots Trump
2. Red Sea crisis builds
3. Attacking No Labels
4. Mark Penn’s polling moment
5. Trump’s youth appeal
6. Google limits political queries

PDB: The latest on Senate border negotiations

Politico: How Trump could break the civil service… UN Security Council meets to find consensus on Gaza resolution … NBC News: Xi warned Biden on Taiwan reunification

— edited by Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann and Morgan Chalfant

Trump is disqualified from presidency, Colorado Supreme Court rules

In a shock Tuesday night decision, Colorado’s Supreme Court booted Donald Trump from the state’s Republican primary ballot for his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. The judges ruled 4-3 that the GOP frontrunner is constitutionally ineligible to run under the 14th Amendment, which bans individuals from holding federal office if they participate in an “insurrection” against the U.S. “President Trump intended that his speech would result in the use of violence or lawless action on January 6 to prevent the peaceful transfer of power,” the judges wrote. (“We are also cognizant that we travel in uncharted territory,” they noted elsewhere.) The Colorado case was one of several 14th Amendment challenges to Trump’s candidacy filed in various states, and the decision sets up a final showdown over the issue at the U.S. Supreme Court, where Trump’s legal team has already promised an appeal. The response from Trump world? Restrained by its standards. Attorney Alina Habba said in a statement that the ruling “attacks the very heart of this nation’s democracy,” adding that she expected Chief Justice John Roberts & co. “will reverse this unconstitutional order.” Trump himself has yet to comment, and his Truth Social account has mostly stuck to reposting clips from furious conservative commentators like Fox’s Laura Ingraham, who called the decision as “the ultimate in election interference.”

Pressure builds on the Red Sea

The crisis on the Red Sea continues to swell. Global oil and shipping companies are still keeping their distance from the waterway this week, even after the U.S. announced an international naval effort to protect ships passing through it from drone and missile attacks by Yemen’s Houthi militia. On Tuesday, the container ship giant Maersk said it would redirect its vessels around the Cape of Good Hope; that followed one day after BP announced its ships would avoid the Red Sea, which is a key transport lane for much of the world’s crude. With oil prices rising along with fears of another worldwide supply chain mess, U.S. officials are still weighing a potential military strike against the Iran-backed Houthis, who have promised to continue their attacks on ships as retribution for Israel’s war in Gaza. White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday the administration did not want to “telegraph any punches one way or the other.” But, according to Bloomberg, Pentagon officials are sketching out the option of a “heavy” response to the Houthis they will present to President Biden.

The plot against No Labels

A coalition of Democratic and Republican anti-Trump groups are organizing an aggressive, multi-front campaign to stop the independent group No Labels from injecting a third major candidate into the upcoming 2024 election. Their plans, laid out in a private, roughly 80-minute call obtained by Semafor’s Shelby Talcott include legal attacks, opposition research and warnings to potential candidates and donors that involvement with No Labels could make them politically toxic: “We are going to come at you with every gun we can possibly find,” one organizer warned. The effort comes after a wave of warnings from Democrats like former Obama aide Jim Messina, who wrote in Politico that the group’s promise is “a lie that will elect Trump.”

Mark Penn’s polling is driving coverage of Israel. But should it?

Much-circulated polling by Mark Penn during the Israel-Gaza war has found that most Gen Zers support Hamas and consider Jews an “oppressor” class. But some pollsters are intensely skeptical of the online Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll that he oversees, Semafor’s David Weigel reports, pointing to Penn’s history as a centrist pundit as well as signs that respondents might be confused by a barrage of oddly worded questions. “Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence,” Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket told Semafor. Some of the combined responses do seem a little strange: A much-cited December survey found that 60% of 18- to 24-year-olds believed Israel was committing “genocide” in Gaza, but that 70% also believed Israel was “trying to avoid civilian casualties.” Majorities of 18- to 24-year-olds indicated that Israel should “be ended and given to Hamas and the Palestinians” (51% agree) — but also that Hamas “would like to commit genocide” (58% agree) and should be “removed from running Gaza” (58% agree as well). Dritan Nesho, the poll’s co-director, defended the methodology and said it was founded as an antidote to the “very limited and stilted questions” other polling firms tend to gravitate towards.

To get David Weigel’s reporting delivered directly to your inbox, sign up for Americana, his twice-a-week national politics newsletter. Sign up here.

Is Gen Z up for grabs in 2024?

Speaking of Gen Z: Donald Trump is winning the youth vote over President Biden, according to the latest New York Times poll. As Times analyst Nate Cohn notes, the 49-43 lead among 18- to 29-year-olds is less shocking than it may seem: Other polls have also found Biden struggling with the same cohort, only to be dismissed by many observers because of the age group’s leftward bent in recent elections. There are some reasons to suspect it’s a blip: Voters may be registering a temporary protest (Cohn notes Trump is surging with critics of Israel’s Gaza campaign); the recent bad news may be depressing response rates from Biden supporters (a recurring theory in the Trump era); and the Times poll also finds that younger people interested in Trump are the least likely to turn out in elections (Biden actually leads Trump 47-45 among all likely voters). But while Gen Z may lean progressive, their partisan attachments are also still not locked in. There’s never been an “anchor” president like Barack Obama with Millennials, or Ronald Reagan with Gen X, both of whom tethered a large cohort to a party in their formative years. Instead, the under-30 set is looking at their third election in a row featuring Trump — who they’ve so far despised — and a Democrat nominated over their objections. The defining Gen Z politician, Bernie Sanders (one of the last Silent Generation leaders), is pointedly an independent. It’s possible negative polarization can only carry Democrats so far.

— Benjy Sarlin

Google’s AI policy on politics

Google will restrict the queries its artificial-intelligence chatbot Bard will answer during the runup to the 2024 election. In an “abundance of caution,” the tech giant is also planning to attach labels to any AI-generated content on its platforms, such as YouTube, and to any political ads that use digitally altered material. It’s part of a wider crackdown by tech firms and regulators on misinformation: Facebook’s owner Meta recently said it would bar political campaigns and advertisers from using its generative AI products in adverts, while new European Union rules will require Big Tech companies to clearly label political advertising on their platforms.

— Tom Chivers

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Ukraine aid is in serious jeopardy, but “there were numerous warning signs along the way” that support was flagging in Washington. Then-Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s pre-midterms warning that Republicans opposed a “blank check” helped set the stage for a year of declining support and brinksmanship within the party.

Playbook: Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn. is out with a campaign ad in New Hampshire praising the state’s first-in-the-nation primary status and attacking Biden for undermining it. Biden is not on the ballot in the state after the DNC sanctioned its part for not abiding by its new calendar.

The Early 202: Emily’s List is endorsing Rep. Abigail Spanbeger, D-Va. in the state’s governor’s race.

Axios: The Colorado ballot decision is likely all upside for Trump if, as expected, the Supreme Court overturns the ruling: “Anti-Trump Republicans fear the ruling could look like the establishment trying to thwart Trump, who can play the victim.”

White House

President Biden paid tribute to the late Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor at her funeral in the National Cathedral Tuesday. “Sandra Day O’Connor, daughter of the American West, was a pioneer in her own right, breaking down the barriers in legal and political worlds and in the nation’s consciousness,” the president said.

Congress

• Capitol Police are still investigating that sex tape.
• Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy formally resigned from the House today. (Time to find out what he does in free agency.)
• Donald Trump’s screed about immigrants “poisoning the blood of our country” earned a rebuke from several Capitol Hill Republicans Tuesday, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. “It strikes me that didn’t bother him when he appointed Elaine Chao secretary of transportation,” he dryly noted. (Chao is McConnell’s wife.)
• On a related note, McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a joint statement that bipartisan talks on border enforcement and Ukraine aid were making “encouraging progress” and that they hoped to vote on a package by “early in the new year.”
• The GOP’s lead negotiator in the border discussions, Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla. released his own statement afterwards, warning that there are “multiple unresolved issues that will take weeks to resolve rather than hours.” Translation: Don’t expect to see a framework before Christmas.
• And in case you needed some holiday cheer: Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. dropped his final holds on military promotions Tuesday, allowing the Senate to confirm nominations on 11 four-star generals.

Outside the Beltway

• Following California’s lead, New York State will create a commission to explore reparations for its Black residents under a bill signed Tuesday by Gov. Kathy Hochul. — Politico
• Thousands of migrants have surged to the U.S.-Texas border this week. The reason? “According to multiple people I trust, the increase in mass crossings in recent days is driven partly by rumors that the border will close soon and the CBP One app will be shut down,” tweets the American Immigration Council’s Aaron Reichlin-Melnick. “In other words, smugglers are capitalizing on Senate negotiations to tell migrants ‘cross now.’”
• The American Civil Liberties Union sued to block Texas’s new law allowing police officers to arrest migrants who enter the country illegally, arguing the statute encroaches on the federal government’s immigration authority.

Beltway Media

• The Washington Post is finally done with its buyouts, which by all accounts had helped cast a pall over the newsroom.
• Substackers Matthew Yglesias and Brian Beutler will launch a new politics podcast, Politix, on Jan. 3, covering the 2024 election from the center-left. “It’s going to be the premiere half-Jewish, half-Latinx podcast,” Yglesias said of the name, “and that URL was available for a low amount of money.” Beutler launched his Off Message newsletter in September after leaving Crooked Media, and Yglesias launched Slow Boring in 2020 after leaving Vox, where he cohosted The Weeds podcast.

Economy

Stocks kept shooting higher Tuesday as investors shrugged off warnings from various Fed officials that the markets may have gotten overly optimistic about rate cuts next year. Irrational exuberance ftw?

Polls

An internal poll from Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J. shows him up 45-22 over New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy in the contest to replace indicted Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J. — Politico

2024

• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis swooped in to defend Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, one of his top surrogates in Congress, on Tuesday after he came under attack from Donald Trump. The former president had called for a primary challenge against Roy, one of several key leaders of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus who has backed DeSantis in the GOP race. As a number of right-wing media personalities rallied to Roy’s side, DeSantis accused Trump of “demanding a primary challenge to one of the most conservative members of Congress (even though the Texas primary filing deadline was over a week ago.)” So much drama!
• Speaking of primaries, Trump endorsed Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno in Ohio’s highly competitive Senate race. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio had been lobbying Trump to back him.

Courts

• A judge ruled that Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa. must disclose thousands of communications to federal prosecutors as part of Jack Smith’s election interference probe.
• The removal of a Confederate memorial from Arlington Cemetery will proceed after a judge lifted a temporary restraining order.

Foreign Policy

• Israel is offering another temporary ceasefire of at least a week if Hamas releases about 40 hostages. — Axios
• Most of India’s opposition lawmakers were suspended from parliament. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party accused the opposition of deliberately disrupting parliamentary proceedings, while critics have accused the government of undermining democracy. Separately, Modi told the Financial Times he would “look into” allegations an Indian official orchestrated an assassination plot on U.S. soil, and insisted the incident would not derail ties with Washington.
• The European Union agreed a major deal on immigration reform. The Pact on Migration and Asylum aims to give governments more control over their borders, by limiting entry and making deportations easier.

Big Read

It turns out that Washington, D.C. needs to worry about getting swallowed up by water, too. As the Washington Post recounts in a lengthy piece, the District’s Federal Triangle and National Mall are built atop infill prone to massive flooding that will likely become more frequent and catastrophic thanks to climate change. The ground around the Tidal Basin is sinking as well, requiring the construction of a flood wall. That project will entail chopping down and eventually replacing hundreds of the city’s iconic cherry trees. (Catch them while you can this spring).

Blindspot

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: House Republicans are pushing the White House to explain why Hunter Biden’s name wasn’t included on the manifest for Marine One this week despite traveling back from Wilmington with President Biden.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Missouri Supreme Court struck down a new law that threatened homeless people with fines for sleeping on public land.

Principals Team

Editors: Benjy Sarlin, Jordan Weissmann, Morgan Chalfant

Editor-at-Large: Steve Clemons

Reporters: Kadia Goba, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Jamie Raskin is a Democratic congressman from Maryland.

• Democrats and Republicans band together to prevent a major third party candidate from emerging.
• Emirati passports have become the hot new thing for global power players.
• A little-known organization is playing a key role in hostage negotiations with Hamas.