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In today’s edition, we dig deeper into kick-the-can loans that often let borrowers pay interest in a͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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September 26, 2023
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Business

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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Welcome back to Semafor Business.

For some very technical reasons (copy & paste error) a chunk of last week’s story about the return of risky loan workouts didn’t make it to you. I’m including it here, not just because I was off yesterday for Yom Kippur or because I’m busy swanning around Los Angeles this week, but because it’s about one of those warning signs that we all tend to look back on once things have gone south with an “well, yes, of course.”

Plus, Biden and Trump are in Michigan, JPMorgan’s Epstein tab grows, and Moody’s is threatening a downgrade if Congress can’t reach a budget deal.

Buy/Sell

Reuters/Mario Anzuoni

➚ BUY: Writers. “We can say, with great pride, that this deal is exceptional,” the Hollywood writers’ guild crowed of a tentative pact that gives its members much of what they wanted. If approved, it will end a 148-day strike that has sapped at least $5 billion from the U.S. economy.

➘ SELL: Studios. “Conspicuously not doing a victory lap,” NYT writes, was the collection of studios and streamers across the table, whose only comment was: “The WGA and AMPTP have reached a tentative agreement.”

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Semafor Stat

What JPMorgan will pay the government of the U.S. Virgin Islands to settle lawsuits over its dealings with Jeffrey Epstein. The bank has now paid more than $350 million in various settlements over the disgraced financier, who was a prized client for years after his 2008 plea deal.

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Business Summit

On Oct. 3, Semafor’s editor-in-chief, Ben Smith, and I will be hosting a gathering of industry leaders at Genesis House in New York, talking to the people shaping today’s business landscape.

Joining us will be Eric Adams, mayor of New York City; Gary Cohn, former director of the National Economic Council; Mark Wiedman, senior managing director of BlackRock; Lynn Martin, president of NYSE; Scott Rechler, CEO of RXR; and Emma Tucker, editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal.

Follow along at semafor.com or @semafor for live updates.

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Liz Hoffman

‘Pray and delay,’ Part II

An addendum to last week’s story on the rise of “pray and delay” loan modifications.

A refresher: Companies strapped for cash and facing looming maturities on their loans are asking their lenders for more time. It’s classic financial can-kicking and a consequence of rising interest rates.

These deals buy time for companies, most of them private-equity-owned, to pay back their loans but raise the interest rate. They also — and this is important — often let borrowers pay that interest not in cash but in additional IOUs. That’s problematic in a bunch of ways that we meant to tell you about last week but did not:

A typical case is that of Anchor Glass, which makes bottles for Heinz ketchup and Sam Adams beer. The company was sold to one private equity firm in 2014 and then another two years later, racking up cheap debt along the way.

Last month it negotiated with lenders over a $710 million loan coming due in December that charged 8% interest. The new loan matures in 2025 and charges about 11%, and the company has the option to pay in scrip rather than cash.

Such “pay in kind,” or PIK, options are getting more popular. The biggest nonbank lending fund, Blue Owl Capital Corp., got 13% of the interest payments owed to it in IOU slips last quarter rather than in cash, up from 2% in early 2020, according to its corporate filings.

“It’s funny money,” says Howard Morris, a partner at law firm Morrison Foerster in London, who said he’s seeing it more and more these days. It also adds up quickly: “The exponential amount of debt when you do get to a formal restructuring is eye-watering.”

Funds like Blue Owl, which are called business development companies and given special tax breaks, are required to pay out 90% of their income — cash or not — to shareholders. So higher levels of in-kind payments can stress their own finances, and many close the gap by borrowing.

The banks that lend BDCs money are also getting more leery of PIK options, said Carolyn Hastings, a partner at Bain Capital Credit.

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Evidence

The federal government’s fiscal year ends in four days. Cue the flurry of last-minute knuckle rapping.

Enforcement actions spike each year in September as agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commision, which yesterday fined Deutsche Bank $25 million for money-laundering and greenwashing, rush to boost their stats.

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Quotable

“I always doubted this Wunderwaffe [wonder-weapon], as Germans used to say, of sanctions.”

— Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska on the country’s economic resilience.

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What We’re Tracking
Reuters/Evelyn Hockstein
  • Moody’s threatens to downgrade the U.S. without a budget deal. For context, Fitch did so in August and was roundly dragged for it.
  • A government shutdown could also leave the Fed flying blind at its meeting next month. Federal workers who collect inflation and unemployment data that is key to interest-rate choices might be off the job or late.
  • President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will offer competing pitches for blue-collar votes on visits this week to support striking auto workers in Michigan. Of note: Biden backed organizing Amazon workers last year but stopped short of a visit.
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Hot On Semafor
  • A large cache of Iranian government correspondence and emails offers a rare window into how Tehran works behind the scenes to bolster its image abroad.
  • A large-scale new study of political advertising shoots down popular Democratic theories and argues that ads for everything from politicians to English muffins should be based more in experimentation than in theory.
  • All signs are still pointing to a U.S. government shutdown — but Republican moderates might team up with Democrats to keep it brief.
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