Principals

How abortion supporters triumphed in Ohio

Ohio voters rejected a Republican-backed change to their constitution on Tuesday, making the November passage of an abortion rights amendment more likely.

It wasn’t close, either: Issue 1, which would have raised the threshold for voter-passed amendments from a simple majority to 60%, lost by a wide margin (14 points as of this morning) and the results were called early in the night. It’s the latest in an ongoing streak of failed post-Dobbs ballot initiatives backed by anti-abortion activists, joining others in Kansas, Montana, and Kentucky.

Republicans hoped the timing of the vote in August would give them an advantage in a lower turnout election, but the move appeared to have backfired. Democrats have done unusually well in special elections this year, buoyed by a base of college-educated voters who are turning out for everything. That’s especially true when abortion is on the ballot — and the savvy “no” campaign did their best to ensure voters saw it that way.

You saw this play out in Athens County, home to Ohio University, and one of the first places to fully report its votes. Republican Sen. J.D. Vance lost it by 20 points last year; Issue 1 lost there by 42 points. And you saw it in Delaware County, north of Columbus, which has trended left since 2016. President Joe Biden lost it by single digits; Issue 1 failed there by 16 points.

But Issue 1 was also a bust in some of the iconic working-class areas that have flipped from Democrat to Republican in recent years, like Mahoning County, where the “no” votes outperformed Vance by a wide margin.

The “no” side drew some support from retired Republicans like former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who were uncomfortable with their successors making it prohibitively hard to amend the state constitution.

It was abortion rights advocates who won the overall argument, however, exploiting a remark Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose made to Seneca County Republicans in June: “This is 100% about keeping a radical pro-abortion amendment out of our constitution.” Before the election, one of LaRose’s U.S. Senate rivals, Bernie Moreno, said that the secretary of state had “screwed up the messaging.”

The pro-Issue 1 side tried multiple overlapping messages in response, warning that liberals would try to pass amendments that ripped qualified immunity away from police and let children get gender-reassignment surgery without parental consent (a claim based on what fact checkers have described as a misleading reading of the abortion initiative). One prominent ad featured a drag queen story hour. Conservative groups pivoted to LGBTQ politics in previous state ballot fights on abortion, raising questions about its effectiveness as a tactic moving forward.

In a statement, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America blamed the failed vote on “the silence of the establishment and business community in Ohio,” and urged Republicans to redouble their efforts to counter liberal groups.

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☞ White House: During his trip to Arizona Tuesday, President Biden signed off on the creation of a new national monument on traditional Native American lands near Grand Canyon National Park, a move that will bar potential uranium mining in the area. While at the canyon, Biden also sat down for an interview with the Weather Channel to talk about climate change. His southwestern jag continues today: He’ll be giving a speech in Albuquerque to commemorate the CHIPS and Science Act’s one-year anniversary.

☞ Senate: Republicans are facing two new wrenches in their plans to win back the chamber in 2024. Hardline conservative Rep. Matt Rosendale is making moves toward a run for the GOP nomination in Montana, where the party establishment has been trying to clear the field for ex-Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy to try to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. Meanwhile, failed gubernatorial candidate and election conspiracist Kari Lake is gearing up for a run in Arizona.

☞ House: Republican moderates are expressing reservations about potentially impeaching the president, in part because the party’s investigations have yet to tie him directly to his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings. “You can’t impeach the president’s son,” Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C. told NBC News.

☞ Outside the Beltway: The Governor of Massachusetts called a state of emergency over the inflow of new migrants that has left more than 20,000 individuals sleeping in public shelters.

Punchbowl News: Although the U.S. economy has shown promising improvements in recent months, the last week — including Moody’s decision to downgrade several high-profile banks — has also made clear that there’s still “significant stress” on the financial system in ways that could impact the 2024 campaign.

The Early 202: Speaking of the economy, one swing district in Pennsylvania demonstrates how Democrats are trying to talk up Biden’s economic record while recognizing voters are still giving him low marks on the issue.

Playbook: The Republican National Committee has told Trump he needs to give at least 48 hours notice if he wants to attend the first GOP debate — Trump has reportedly suggested he would “troll” the other candidates from the audience instead of participating (though those who heard Trump’s comments didn’t think he was serious).

Hardliner border demands add to budget tensions

Rep. Chip Roy’s latest set of budget demands are chafing some of his fellow Republicans. The Texas conservative — and resident policy guru of the House Freedom Caucus — penned a dear colleague letter viewed by Semafor threatening to hold back support for any appropriation bill funding the Department of Homeland Security unless it also includes additional steps “to secure the border.” Some of his suggestions: Passing the GOP immigration bill H.R. 2 or ensuring DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is removed from office.

With his letter, Roy is potentially pitting himself against another Texas Republican who just happens to chair the appropriations panel: Rep. Kay Granger. At least one GOP aide said that his letter “could be construed as a little bit aggressive towards her committee.” Other GOP staffers vented frustration that were adding to a list of unrealistic demands in the coming budget fight. “So he’s just adding to the list of reasons why he’ll shut down the government?” said one. “This is what’s so frustrating about these people. They think we have all three branches of government.”

Roy isn’t alone on this stand, though: Rep. Ralph Norman, a fellow Freedom Caucus member, told Semafor he supports the letter.

— Kadia Goba

“Don’t judge me by the almighty, judge me by the alternative,” President Biden likes to say. Well, the latest polling from our partners at Gallup finds him slightly less popular than Donald Trump: A record-high 57% of respondents report having an unfavorable opinion of Biden, versus 41% who hold a favorable one. Trump isn’t far off with a 41-55 unfavorable rating himself. In fact, nobody connected to presidential politics is covering themselves in glory here. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Vice President Kamala Harris, and her predecessor Mike Pence all sport fairly similar negative ratings.

If it’s any consolation, they’re all doing much better than Vladimir Putin, who’s about as unpopular as anything one can poll — 90% say they dislike him, significantly worse than before the Ukraine invasion. Prince William and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are the big popularity contest winners.

— Benjy Sarlin

The first Republican presidential debate won’t waste any time getting into the action — there are no opening statements. That’s according to the new format being distributed to the campaigns, which Shelby Talcott scooped yesterday. The two-hour debate, hosted by Fox News, is on August 23. Some questions will come from students with Young America’s Foundation, which is partnering with the network. Candidates will also have an “exclusive opportunity” to do an on-site “marketing shoot” with Fox to spruce up their image in campaign graphics on the network.

The Twitter blue bird may be dead, but a group of sixteen Twitter veterans are launching Blue Owl Group, a new global advisory firm that’s emphasizing its expertise on the shifting tech landscape. Among the former Twitter names: Colin Crowell, former Global VP of Public Policy at Twitter and MD at Blue Owl Group; Ian Plunkett, Twitter’s former Global Head of Policy Communications; Lauren Devoll, former Global Partnerships and Innovation Manager at Twitter; and Lauren Culbertson Grieco, former Head of Government Affairs for U.S. and Canada at Twitter.

Senator Rick Scott, R-Fla. recently traveled to Hawaii, Guam, the Philippines, and Singapore to discuss national security.

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, according to data from our partners at Ground News.

WHAT THE LEFT ISN’T READING: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation prohibiting transgender women from participating in women’s college sports.

WHAT THE RIGHT ISN’T READING: A grand jury in Georgia will likely hear the case against Trump and his allies for their efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in the state next week. An indictment in the case appears to be imminent, according to the Atlanta-area district attorney leading the investigation.

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• A China-Philippines confrontation points to growing Pacific tensions.