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Ukraine’s forces push into Russia, Vance and Walz face scrutiny over their military records, and the͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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sunny Santiago
cloudy Kursk region
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August 8, 2024
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Americas Morning Edition
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The World Today

  1. Ukraine’s Russia offensive
  2. Vance, Walz under scrutiny
  3. US recession fears sharpen
  4. Yunus back in Bangladesh
  5. UK cracks down on riots
  6. US-Mexico crossings down
  7. China steel floods Chile
  8. Mpox emergency meeting
  9. Terraforming Mars
  10. ‘Democracy manifest’ RIP

The rapid growth of wind power, and a recommendation of a book about Nigerian art which is more readable than its rather dry title suggests.

1

Ukraine pushes into Russia

Acting Governor of Kursk Region/Reuters

A Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory forced Moscow to evacuate villages and redeploy troops, though analysts said they were puzzled by Kyiv’s strategy. The surprise assault in the Kursk region, several miles into Russia, appeared more organized and better equipped than prior raids, and came after Moscow’s forces made advances elsewhere in eastern Ukraine. Washington said the attack did not violate US rules on the use of its weapons, but added it was unclear on Ukraine’s objectives. Experts noted the Kremlin’s backers appeared to differentiate between the attack on Kursk and battles in Ukrainian territory annexed by Moscow, but warned that the “short-term benefits” of undermining a narrative of Russian battlefield progress “might soon turn into long-term consequences.”

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2

Would-be VPs battle over service records

Umit Bektas/Reuters

The rival US vice-presidential candidates’ legacies as military veterans came into focus as Democrats and Republicans launched into full-fledged campaign mode. JD Vance, Republican contender Donald Trump’s running mate, accused his counterpart Tim Walz of exaggerating his service: Walz spent 24 years in the National Guard, but retired around when his unit was to be deployed to Iraq. “Veterans, and I think non-veterans, are really pissed off,” Vance told Semafor. Critics of Vance, meanwhile, dismissed his 2005 deployment to Iraq because it was with a public-affairs unit. The back-and-forth came as Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris toured swing states in what The Washington Post called “a dead-even contest.”

For more on the presidential race, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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3

US recession fears rise

Two major investment banks this week raised their forecasts for the risk of an impending US recession. JPMorgan now says there is a 35% chance of such a downturn by year-end, up 10 percentage points, days after Goldman Sachs said it forecast a 25% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, also a 10-percentage-point increase. Their projections came following days of market turmoil which were largely driven by investors unwinding a popular trade that was rendered less profitable by monetary tightening in Japan, but which was also attributed to some extent to fears of a slowdown in the world’s biggest economy and the consequences such a downturn would have for the globe.

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4

Yunus returns to Bangladesh

Mohammad Ponir Hossain/Reuters

Nobel Peace Prize-winner Muhammad Yunus today returned to his native Bangladesh, where he will lead an interim government after a court acquitted him of charges supporters had said were politically motivated. His sudden turnaround in fortunes mirrors the rapid shifts underway in his country, after the previous, longtime leader was ousted in a student-led protest movement. Yunus faces huge challenges, from restoring trust in the country’s democracy to a domestic economy battered by the long-running demonstrations. “While there is tentative new hope in Bangladesh today, we must remember that these are uncharted territories for us as a nation,” the Dhaka Tribune said in an editorial. “We must not make the mistakes previous administrations have made.”

Bangladesh ranks second in our latest Global Election Hot List, which this week spotlights a Japanese political dynasty and a battle between allies-turned-rivals. →

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5

UK state and society hit back after riots

Mass anti-racism protests filled British towns and cities after days of unrest. Anti-immigrant violence erupted after the murder of three young girls last week by the UK-born child of Rwandan immigrants. Several cities saw riots and more than 400 were arrested as the prime minister — a former chief prosecutor elected just a month ago — said “far-right thuggery” would face “the full force of the law.” One rioter who punched a police officer was jailed for three years, while the authorities are considering terrorism indictments for others, as well as potential extradition to the UK of overseas influencers accused of stoking the violence from abroad.

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6

US-Mexico crossings plunge

Illegal crossings of the US-Mexico border fell in July to around a fifth of their peak, reaching their lowest level since 2020. The steep drop underscores the success of restrictive policies by the two countries: Curbs imposed by Washington have helped halve the number of asylum seekers, who must now have entered the country legally in order to be able to request protections. Meanwhile a system of “chutes and ladders” — whereby Mexican authorities repeatedly bus migrants from northern cities down to its border with Guatemala — keeps tens of thousands in a loop within the country. “Mexico now functions as a barrier and as a sponge,” a migration expert told The Wall Street Journal.

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7

China overcapacity hits Latam

Chile shut down its only steel mill in response to a flood of Chinese imports. Governments across Latin America have complained about a surge in cheap exports from China that has pushed down prices for goods on which their economies rely. Although some countries have imposed tariffs, lawmakers have to tread carefully given the region’s growing economic dependence on China. Meanwhile some have criticized Beijing for weakening the rule of law in its bid to increase trade. “It’s not that China’s trying to produce antidemocratic regimes, but that antidemocratic regimes find a willing partner in the Chinese,” an expert wrote for the Council on Foreign Relations last year.

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Global Journalism

Inside the biggest stories transforming the Arabian Peninsula and the world. Introducing Semafor Gulf — your go-to source for understanding the rising influence of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Three times a week, the Semafor Gulf newsroom will bring you original reporting that examines how the region’s financial, business, and geopolitical decisions shape the world — from culture and investment to infrastructure, climate, and technology. Navigate the region’s capital, influence, and power with Semafor Gulf — subscribe for free here.

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8

WHO meets over Africa mpox threat

Arlette Bashizi/Reuters

The World Health Organization will convene an emergency meeting over the growing spread of mpox in Africa. There have been 27,000 confirmed cases of the disease, formerly known as monkeypox, since the current outbreak began in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2023, and 1,100 people — mostly children — have died. Mpox is endemic in the region, but a new variant has emerged which spreads more easily via routine close contact. The less deadly form of the virus which spread mainly among men who have sex with men around the world in 2022 has largely died out, but the new variant has been detected in several countries.

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9

New plan to terraform Mars

Wikimedia Commons

Terraforming Mars could be easier than thought, scientists suggested. Our neighboring planet is cold: Its average temperature is -62°C (-79°F). Proposed plans to warm it with the intent of eventually making it habitable include adding chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs, powerful greenhouse gases — to the atmosphere, but they are hard to find on Mars. The new idea is to take iron oxide from abundant Martian dust and make it into glitter-sized rod-shaped particles, potentially boosting Mars’ temperature by 10°C (18°F) within months, enough to allow liquid water in warmer areas. The gap that needs bridging to make the planet livable for humans “is narrower than we might think,” one scientist told Science.

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10

‘Democracy manifest’ icon dies at 82(ish)

Russell Furman/YouTube

A small-time criminal who became the face of Australia’s most iconic meme died aged 82, or thereabouts. “Jack Karlson” — both his name and his age are disputed — became famous in 2009 after a clip of his 1991 arrest went viral. “What is the charge? Eating a meal? A succulent Chinese meal?” he boomed, being manhandled into a police car. “This is democracy manifest!” Karlson is believed to have escaped prison several times, and was “a natural showman [and] conman,” according to one policeman who arrested him. A documentary of his life is being made by an Australian filmmaker. Before he died, his family gave him “a last taste of red wine through his [IV] drip” as a sendoff.

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Flagging
  • French rugby players accused of sexual abuse in Argentina appear in court.
  • New Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg starts his first day on the job.
  • The Texas Rangers, last year’s Major League Baseball World Series champions, visit the White House and meet with US President Joe Biden.
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Semafor Stat
100%

The percentage by which global wind energy capacity is expected to grow by 2030 compared to 2022 levels. However the figure falls short of global commitments to triple production before the end of the decade, Ember, a green energy think tank, said in its latest report. Global production is only expected to double because China is forecast to over-deliver: The country added five times more wind capacity than the combined G7 nations in 2023. “Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind,” an expert at Ember said. “Wind is not getting enough attention.

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Semafor Recommends

Postcolonial Modernism by Chika Okeke-Agulu. A columnist for The Art Newspaper says not to be “put off by the academic sounding title,” describing it as an “enjoyably readable” book that charts a group of university students who “went on to change the face of 20th century Nigerian art.” Buy it from your local bookstore.

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