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Russia and China are stepping up joint military drills in Asia and the Pacific — and their moves are͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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July 25, 2023
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Security

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Jay Solomon
Jay Solomon

Welcome to Semafor Security.

The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine — and the West’s response — continues to have reverberations far afield from Europe. The Pentagon is alarmed by stepped-up joint military exercises between Russia and China in the Indo-Pacific, actions Beijing says are tied to NATO’s creeping role in East Asia. And the CIA is similarly concerned by the presence of Russian engineers at Iranian space and missile launches, seemingly as payback for Tehran’s supply of kamikaze drones for the war in Ukraine. The geopolitical map continues to shift.

Karina Tsui and I also profile the first woman to be named a member of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and explain why Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin initially opposed her appointment. Karina also talks to a top Middle East expert who explains how Israel’s prolonged political unrest is emerging as a gift to Israel’s mortal rivals in Iran, Syria, and the Palestinian territories.

Let me know what you think of this newsletter, and please send tips to jsolomon@semafor.com.

Sitrep

Jeju: The USS Annapolis, a fast-attack submarine, arrived in South Korea on Monday in a show of Washington and Seoul’s strengthening military alliance. The vessel docked at a naval base on Jeju Island just under a week after the nuclear-armed USS Kentucky sub visited the southern port city of Busan. Pyongyang has responded to these submarine appearances by firing a barrage of missiles.

Reni: Russian drones fired on the Ukrainian port town of Reni, just 200 meters away from the Romanian border. The attack is the closest Russia has come to hitting a NATO member, and signals that Moscow plans to continue disrupting Ukraine’s grain exports after pulling out of a deal that let Kyiv make shipments across the Black Sea.

Washington: The U.S. is considering lifting sanctions on China’s police forensics institute in order to win Beijing’s cooperation in the fight against global fentanyl trafficking, The Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S. imposed sanctions on the institute over its suspected involvement in human rights abuses against the Uyghurs. But China has demanded Washington remove the penalties as a condition for its help on narcotics issues.

Karina

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Jay Solomon

Russia’s and China’s joint military drills in Asia are making the Pentagon very nervous

Sergey Mihailicenko/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

THE NEWS

Russia and China are stepping up joint military drills in Asia and the Pacific — and their moves are starting to alarm the Pentagon.

On Sunday, Beijing and Moscow completed a massive air and naval exercise in the Sea of Japan, including anti-submarine missions, sea-and-air escort training, and combat games, according to Chinese state media. Leaders said the practice runs were focused on “safeguarding” the region’s maritime transportation — possibly a mocking reference to language Biden administration has used to justify its own growing military presence in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Last month, four Chinese H-6 bombers and two Russian Tu-95 bombers conducted joint patrols between Japan and South Korea and further south towards the Philippines and Guam — all bases for American forces. The operation caused both Tokyo and Seoul to scramble fighters to defend their airspace and seemed to be a warning to the leaders of the Quad nations — the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India — who were meeting in Tokyo that week.

American defense officials have said they’re now gauging whether the Chinese and Russian militaries will look to run these sorts of exercises closer to U.S. territory. There are also concerns that the Kremlin may be sharing battlefield data from its war in Ukraine, which involves military operations against U.S. and NATO defense systems, with China.

“As it goes into the Pacific, they have amplified and increased their amount of joint-training, joint-exercises, and joint-demonstrations,” Admiral John Aquilino, commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific, said last week at the Aspen Security Forum. “I only see the cooperation getting stronger. And, boy, that’s concerning. That’s a dangerous world.”

JAY’S VIEW

For obvious reasons, most coverage of China and Russia’s “no limits friendship” has focused on how it will affect Moscow’s military efforts in Ukraine. But the recent joint exercises are a reminder that the alliance could also have vast security implications for much of Asia.

While China is engaging in a historic arms buildup on its own, Beijing could still be bolstered by the Kremlin’s military capabilities, including nuclear-armed submarines, long-range bombers, and hypersonic missile systems.

The Kremlin also headquarters its Pacific Fleet in Vladivostok, just across the Sea of Japan from Tokyo. Its regular deployment in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in collaboration with the People’s Liberation Army, would significantly alter the region’s military balance.

“We’ve always known that the Pacific Fleet in the Eastern Military District of Russia was going to be a factor in the Pacific and that we at some point would have to address. Russia is just not a European and NATO problem,” retired General Steven Rudder, a former commander of U.S. Marine forces in the Pacific and a nonresident Atlantic Council fellow, told Semafor. “With Russia at war and now aligned and getting support from China, we now squarely see Russia as more of a dynamic problem in Asia much more than before.”

U.S. strategists are also concerned that Russia is sharing its battlefield lessons from Ukraine with Beijing in real time. China hasn’t engaged in a major military battle since its 1979 border war with Vietnam, which it lost. Moscow’s experience in fighting U.S. and NATO weapons systems in both Ukraine and Syria could be invaluable in helping China plan for any engagements against the Pentagon in Asia.

The growing China-Russia military exercises are “helping to offset the PLA’s lack of combat experience, one of its most significant weaknesses relative to the United States,” the Center for New American Security wrote in April.

They also mark a historical reversal: For much of the Cold War, China aligned with the U.S. in seeking to constrain the Soviet Union’s advances in Asia.

THE VIEW FROM BEIJING

China and Russia both cast the U.S. and its allies as the aggressors in Asia, and have suggested they are simply looking to counter the Biden administration’s recent moves to bolster America’s presence, and military alliances, there.

“We would like to make it clear to NATO that the Chinese side is firm in its resolve to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests,” China’s spokesman at the European Union said after the summit. “We firmly oppose NATO’s eastward movement into the Asia-Pacific region and any action that jeopardizes China’s legitimate rights and interests will be met with a resolute response.

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Dr. Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington and is the author of the book: Gaza Conflict 2021: “Hamas, Israel and Eleven Days of War.”

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Intel

The CIA has discovered Russian technicians in Iran helping the country develop its space launch and long-range missile systems. But it remains unclear if Tehran, in return, is now willing to share battlefield missiles with Russia for its war in Ukraine.

CIA chief William Burns surprised some attendees at the Aspen Security Forum last week when he revealed intelligence on Russian operations in Iran, possibly as a warning to the country’s Islamist rulers. This assistance, he said, is part of growing Russian-Iranian military cooperation that’s included Iran’s shipments of kamikaze drones and munitions to Moscow’s forces fighting in Ukraine.

But shipments of shorter-range, ballistic missiles might be a step too far for Tehran, Burns said. He noted that Iran’s leadership seems concerned “not just about our reaction, but about European reaction as well.”

Jay

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Stat

The number of North Koreans who defected to the South from April through June, according to South Korea’s Ministry of Unification. This doubles the number from the previous quarter and is believed to be tied to the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China, through which North Koreans must travel to reach the South.

Jay

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Advance/Retreat

⋉ ADVANCE: Cross-border attacks. Russia blamed Ukraine for drone attacks on occupied-Crimea and Moscow early Monday, including near Russia’s Defense Ministry headquarters. Moscow said Kyiv was using “terrorist methods” by attacking Russian civilians.

Adam Berry/Getty Images

RETREAT: Cross-border retreats. Nearly 4,000 Wagner group mercenaries have arrived in Belarus, a military monitoring group reported, after a short-lived revolt against the Russian military. Mercenaries were continuing to work with Belarusian troops near the country’s border with Poland.

Karina

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Person of Interest
Jung Yeon-Je/Pool/Reuters

Adm. Lisa Franchetti once contemplated becoming a journalist while studying at Northwestern University. But her focus on the military allowed her to make history last week as the first woman nominated to become a member of U.S.’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

President Joe Biden Friday nominated Franchetti on Friday to head all U.S. naval operations. If confirmed, Franchetti, 59, would join a growing list of prominent women and minorities whom Biden has elevated at the Pentagon and other American security services. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is the first African American to hold his post, and his deputy, Kathleen Hicks, is the first female no. 2 at the Pentagon. Biden also made Admiral Linda L. Fagan commander of the U.S. Coast Guard, which is formally part of the Department of Homeland Security.

Biden chose Franchetti for her extensive experience at sea, as well as her acumen behind a desk. She served as commander of the U.S. Naval Forces in Korea and oversaw the U.S. Sixth Fleet out of Naples, Italy. Franchetti has 38 years of service as a commissioned officer in which she’s earned a “no-nonsense” reputation. “There’s no one better prepared to be the 33rd CNO,” Harry Harris, the former commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told Breaking Defense last week

Still, Franchetti wasn’t Secretary Austin’s first pick, according to U.S. officials. He favored Adm. Samuel Paparo, who currently leads the U.S. Pacific Fleet. His appointment would have placed another expert on China’s growing naval capability on the Joint Staff. But under a compromise between Biden and Austin, Paparo is expected to be named commander of all U.S. forces in the Pacific next April when the current chief, Adm. John Aquilino, ends his post.

Now, Franchetti just needs to get her nomination through Congress. Republican Sen. Tommy Turberville has placed hundreds of holds on military promotions over his objection to the Biden administration’s policy of paying travel expenses for service members who need to make travel out of state to obtain an abortion.

— Karina and Jay

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