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The US House passes Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill,’ CEOs get vocal about AI replacing humans, ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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July 4, 2025
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The World Today

Semafor “World Today” map graphic.
  1. Trump megabill passes
  2. The US’ TINA trade
  3. China firms push stablecoin
  4. Trade deal balancing acts
  5. Tariffs imperil July 4 shows
  6. Trump, Putin speak again
  7. CEOs say AI will take jobs
  8. Academics rethink AI
  9. Air traffic control nightmare
  10. Ancient Egyptian’s genome

A new atlas for lovers of music and maps, and our latest Substack Rojak.

1

House passes Trump megabill

Chart showing total US public debt.

The US House of Representatives passed Republicans’ sweeping tax and spending legislation on Thursday, sending the so-called “big, beautiful bill” to President Donald Trump’s desk. The measure’s passage, following an all-night legislative session during which Republicans quashed internal opposition, comes just before Trump’s deadline of July 4, and reflects his sustained sway over the party. The legislation reduces social safety net programs to pay for extending tax cuts, enacting new ones, and boosting spending on immigration and defense. Democrats are already laying the groundwork to campaign on the bill in the 2026 midterm elections, hitting their Republican colleagues on the safety-net cuts and projected impact on the federal deficit. Recent polls have shown the legislation is deeply unpopular.

For more insights on the bill’s impact, subscribe to Semafor Principals. →

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2

The ‘there is no alternative’ trade

Chart showing performance of global stock indexes.

Strong US job numbers sent stocks higher and showed the economy for now shrugging off tariffs and geopolitical instability. Investors remain wary about the country’s fiscal direction, especially with the passage of President Donald Trump’s deficit-expanding tax bill, and concerns about tariffs haven’t dissipated. But the economy remains on solid footing: The US added a better-than-expected 147,000 jobs in June, sending the S&P 500 to a record high. The US has “the deepest capital markets and most dynamic companies in the world, plus a workforce that refuses to quit... There’s simply nowhere else to go,” Semafor’s Liz Hoffman wrote, reflecting a worldview known as the TINA trade: “There is no alternative.”

Subscribe to Semafor Business for more analysis on the US’ place in the global economy. →

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3

China firms make stablecoin push

Joe Tsai, Alibaba Group co-founder and chairman.
Joe Tsai, Alibaba Group co-founder and chairman. Gonzalo Fuentes/Reuters

Two Chinese tech giants are reportedly lobbying Beijing to authorize the launch of stablecoins pegged to its offshore yuan. The proposals by JD.com and Alibaba affiliate Ant Group argue such a move would help counter the growing influence of US dollar-linked cryptocurrencies, Reuters reported. China banned cryptocurrencies in 2021, and allowing the stablecoins — digital assets usually pegged to a traditional currency — would mark a major shift. But it could line up with the country’s efforts to internationalize the yuan and develop financial systems independent of the US, as tariffs shake up the global economy and the dollar weakens. Experts say the greenback is far from being dethroned as the global reserve currency, though.

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4

US trading partners’ balancing act

An Indian farmer collects rice from a paddy.
Amit Dave/Reuters

The US’ impetus to get trade deals in place before July 9 has been hampered by countries that are trying to appease both Washington and their own constituencies. It’s a delicate balancing act,” Semafor’s Rohan Goswami wrote. Japan, which is gearing up for critical legislative elections, is trying to avoid punishing US car duties without angering its powerful domestic rice growers who are protected by Japanese tariffs that Trump is seeking to unwind. In India, negotiations are partly stuck on allowing freer milk imports from US dairy farms whose feeding practices conflict with Hindu dietary customs. And Vietnam, which struck a deal with Washington Wednesday, is already facing pushback from local retailers who argue the agreement favors the US.

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5

Tariffs spark alarm over July 4 fireworks

Man wearing “Trump 2024” hat watches fireworks.
Carlos Barria/Reuters

US Independence Day on July 4 is traditionally celebrated with fireworks, but President Donald Trump’s tariffs may imperil their availability next year. Nearly all of the $2 billion-worth of fireworks used in the US each year are imported from China. Tariffs have already raised prices, but industry representatives told The New York Times that 2026, which will be the nation’s 250th birthday, could see seriously diminished pyrotechnics, or even go dark altogether. The White House dismissed concerns, saying “patriotism isn’t celebrating the independence of our country with cheap foreign-made firecrackers.” Industry lobbyists recently reminded Trump of the words of US Founding Father John Adams who said Independence Day should forever be celebrated with “pomp and parade… bonfires and illuminations.”

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6

Trump, Putin speak after aid halt

Chart showing US and Europe monthly aid to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told US President Donald Trump on Thursday that he won’t back down from his goals in Ukraine, a day after Washington said it halted some weapons shipments to Kyiv. The leaders’ hour-long call comes as Moscow has intensified its attacks on Ukraine, pounding cities with drone and missile strikes. Ukraine worries those attacks could become more lethal after the Trump administration abruptly stopped the delivery of air-defense interceptors and other weapons. That decision signals diminishing American commitment toward Kyiv, and “will mean more death and a longer war,” The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board wrote. Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy is likely to lobby for more support in a call with Trump on Friday.

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7

CEOs vocal about AI impact on jobs

Man in London tube walks past “Stop Hiring Humans” advert.
Chris J. Ratcliffe/Reuters

Executives are increasingly vocal about how artificial intelligence will replace human jobs. Ford’s CEO recently estimated that as many as half of all white-collar workers in the US are at risk. CEOs are “whispering about how their businesses could likely be run with a fraction of the current staff,” The Wall Street Journal wrote. Some firms are only hiring if managers can prove AI can’t do the job — but others argue the fears are overblown. AI “can make a boring job even more boring and an interesting job even more interesting,” a Financial Times columnist wrote, urging employees to ask if AI could “do the most highly skilled part of your job,” or the low-skill grunt work you’d like to replace.

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8

AI makes academics rethink education

Oxford graduates queue in robes.
Toby Melville/Reuters

Students’ widespread use of artificial intelligence is forcing academics to rethink higher education. Writing in The New Yorker, literature professor Hua Hsu said that almost every student he asked used AI, sometimes for research but often to simply write their essays. And AI assistants are now so capable of writing code that computer science degrees are of decreasing value, and many students studying such courses understood little of the code they submitted, academics told The New York Times. The two disciplines have responded differently: English teachers are avoiding take-home essays and using in-class exams, while CS professors are emphasizing critical thinking rather than simple code literacy, turning toward AI instead of away from it.

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9

Europe braces for travel nightmares

French travelers enter under “Departures” sign at airport.
Manon Cruz/Reuters

French air traffic controllers launched a two-day strike Thursday, as Europe braces for another summer defined by air travel nightmares. Hundreds of flights were canceled or delayed, affecting nearly 300,000 passengers, reflecting the fragility of the continent’s aviation network amid high demand and an understaffed air traffic control system. “Every summer since COVID has been the worst summer until now,” a pilot union leader told Politico. Airlines are increasingly irked: Ryanair launched a ranking of European countries that cause the most extra travel time. The US has faced similar woes, with officials capping the number of flights at the Newark airport after air traffic control shortages, construction, and tech outages caused severe disruptions at the New York City-area hub earlier this year.

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10

First human genome of ancient Egyptian

Clay pot containing ancient Egyptian remains.
Clay pot containing Egyptian remains. A. Morez et al./Nature

The first human genome from ancient Egypt was sequenced, using DNA from an elderly man’s teeth. The man lived around 4,500 years ago, and his remains were preserved in a clay pot — an indicator that he was of high but not elite status, as he was not mummified. His DNA mostly resembled that of neolithic North African farmers, but a large chunk seemed to match people in Mesopotamia, home to the Sumerian civilization, implying the possibility of large-scale migration between the two despite their 1,000-mile separation. Sequencing ancient genomes is difficult because DNA degrades quickly, especially in North African heat, although partial sequences have been gathered from mummies in the past.

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Flagging
Semafor “Flagging” graphic.

July 4:

  • European Council and European Commission presidents António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen meet Moldova’s President Maia Sandu in Chișinău.
  • Markets are closed in the US for Independence Day.
  • British rock band Oasis kicks off its much-anticipated reunion tour in Cardiff.
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Substack Rojak
Semafor “Substack Rojak” graphic.

Rojak  is a colloquial Malay word for “eclectic mix,” and is the name for a Javanese dish that typically combines sliced fruit and vegetables with a spicy dressing. In this recurring Flagship feature, we highlight the best newsletter writing from and about Asia.

App-lied science

Chinese app Xiaohongshu was hailed earlier this year for creating a rare global bridge of genuine cross-cultural connection when American users flocked to it after the fate of TikTok in the US was briefly imperiled. But that global popularity also created a “hateful geopolitical circus,” which altered Xiaohongshu’s reputation as one of the rare female-dominated online spaces, Meghan Boilard wrote in her newsletter Off-Topic.

Launched in 2013 as “Hong Kong Shopping Guide,” Xiaohongshu — which translates to RedNote or Little Red Book — has been labeled China’s answer to Instagram, though it’s more like a combination of TikTok, a travel guide, and a “crowdsourced search engine.” Because of its focus on lifestyle content, Xiaohongshu became a way for women in China “to carve out spaces free of men,” using code words to discuss topics that might otherwise be taboo, like marriage or LGBTQ issues. But its newfound popularity has allowed for the proliferation of violent and xenophobic rhetoric disguised within graphics featuring “cutesy” aesthetics designed for the lifestyle algorithm. “The line between calculated bot and nationalist-fueled lunacy has blurred, and sometimes I fear I’ll never find my way back to that place that briefly inspired optimism,” Boilard wrote.

Money (quietly) talks

The expression of extreme wealth in China has evolved through the 21st century from being loud and aspirational to relatable and subdued. In the 2010s, pop culture’s portrayal of wealth was “presented as pure flamboyance,” but the public still held positive perceptions of rich celebrities, according to Active Faults, a Chinese pop culture newsletter: “We watched with intrigue as they burned through their savings with increasing creativity.” Fans then became part of the equation, with a celebrity’s value becoming linked to how much their followers could be coaxed into buying a brand they represented.

But sometime in the last few years, the cultural and economic tides shifted, and people grew tired of conspicuous displays of wealth. Today, mainland celebrities are “increasingly brandless and logoless,” which echoes the “quiet luxury” trend that took off in the West. They are now brand ambassadors for more down-to-earth products like herbal teas and menstrual pads. Any overt representation of glamor and luxury has to be packaged “into a nationalistic, soft power campaign.”

Ali-bye-bye

A letter written by an Alibaba employee who quit went viral in China and sparked a reassessment of the tech giant’s work culture. The 10,000-word “corporate autopsy,” which was first posted on Alibaba’s internal messaging board and got little attention outside of China, is a “brutal breakdown of how a great company became mediocre,” The Great Wall Street newsletter wrote. The ex-employee details Alibaba’s acquisition failures and how the firm shifted from mission-driven to money-driven, leading to a breakdown in morale.

That includes the “996” work culture common at some Chinese tech companies — 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. “Creativity is driven by inner motivation, not external pressures,” the employee wrote. Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma praised the letter, and the company’s recent shareholder letter suggested they’re acting on some of the insights. “Whether they can execute before more talent walks out is the real test,” the Substack wrote.

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Curio
“Maps on Vinyl” book cover.
Damien Saunder/The Map Center

Lovers of cartography — and music — need look no further than a new atlas of album cover maps. Former National Geographic cartographer Damien Saunder’s Maps on Vinyl catalogues 415 covers featuring maps that are “an abstraction of a geographic form — real or fictitious — and show spatial relationships,” Saunder told The Guardian. Some notables include Talking Heads’ Little Creatures, Robert Fripp and Brian Eno’s The Equatorial Stars, and the vinyl cover for Madonna’s 1983 record Borderline — which, in depicting a conjoined map of New York and London, perhaps presciently manifested the rise of a transatlantic star, Saunder said.

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Semafor Spotlight
Mark Zuckerberg.
Carlos Barria/Reuters

Meta’s new hires offer a glimpse into its nascent superintelligence unit, aimed at making the social media company’s AI capabilities more competitive with industry leaders, Semafor’s Rachyl Jones reported.

In a memo sent to OpenAI staffers, CEO Sam Altman hinted that the company is reevaluating compensation and criticized Mark Zuckerberg’s recruiting efforts, saying “Missionaries will beat mercenaries,” Wired reported.

Subscribe to Semafor Technology: Smart views on the future of tech. →

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