Americana

1. New York’s political earthquake
2. Liberals reckon with Mamdani’s win
3. The missing anti-war movement
4. Campaigning from the grave
5. Democrats’ new, young Oversight leader

Also: Polling on the Iranian missile strike

As a campaign reporter, you dream for this kind of luck. It was early June. I showed up to the first Zohran Mamdani event of my trip, a forum on affordability and anti-monopoly policy with Lina Khan and Zephyr Teachout, at a Methodist church decked out in pride banners.

It started right on time, with a substantive discussion of the mayor’s executive power to help small businesses compete with behemoths. Suddenly, a protester stood up to demand he stop defending Israel’s “right to exist.” Then another. Then another. It was the primary campaign in miniature — the candidate trying to talk economics, and a very loud voice demanding he talk about the Holy Land.

Most of the Israel discourse in New York’s election came from the other direction. Mamdani supported the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement to push Israel out of its West Bank settlements, said that he would arrest Benjamin Netanyahu over the “genocide” in Gaza, and did not defend Israel’s “right to exist as a Jewish state,” as the question was put to him at a critical debate. Asked if he would condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada,” he didn’t, and was drawn into a final-week fight with the Holocaust Museum.

The conventional wisdom was that this could put a ceiling on the only mayoral campaign with momentum. We now know that it didn’t. Polling during the campaign found that few Democrats were voting on Israel, and most were voting on affordability.

It is very easy to over-interpret one primary. The story in big city elections this year, until 9 p.m. on Tuesday, was that progressives were getting rinsed. And Andrew Cuomo’s hubris and unpopularity probably won’t be replicated in many establishment vs. insurgent primaries this year. But Democratic leaders are living very far from Democratic voters, who are less supportive of the Jewish state’s military and foreign policy than at any time since its creation, 77 years ago.

“If Democrats keep running in fear of AIPAC, they will continue to do badly,” Bernie Sanders told Politico in an interview after Mamdani’s win.

In 2022 and 2024, when AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups spent to beat pro-Palestinian leftists in primaries, it had the intended effect: Progressives campaigned more carefully, to avoid being smashed by PAC money. Pro-Israel Democrats would continue to lead the party.

“There’s going to be a whole class of progressives and Democrats that are pro-Israel, and they’ll become empowered,” then-AIPAC CEO Howard Kohr told me in 2022.

That was true, and it stayed true through the 2024 election, when Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris refused to meet the demands of pro-Palestinian Democrats, despite their threat to withhold votes in swing states. But most Democratic voters did want Biden and Harris to change.

Those voters have since watched the Trump administration pull grants away from universities on the premise of fighting anti-Semitism, which has infuriated them: “Do not claim that your authoritarian power-grabs are about combatting anti-semitism,” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker said in a speech to New Hampshire Democrats this year. Like AIPAC, they’ve also watched new media elevate criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza, without being “canceled,” because no one really has the power to cancel it. (Theo Von doesn’t run on NIH grants.)

Mamdani is not going to make his Israel views the focus of his November campaign, which will continue to focus on affordability. But negative polarization is powerful. Democrats have already recoiled at the anti-Muslim attacks he’s faced since Tuesday, and the nervous backroom meetings of wealthy people who want to stop him. Jumping onto Andrew Cuomo’s leaky ship was a devastating mistake for the pro-Israel movement.

Zohran Mamdani’s historic upset

New York City Democrats nominated socialist legislator Zohran Mamdani for mayor on Tuesday, rejecting former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a rout that no pollster saw coming.

“I cannot promise that you will always agree with me, but I will never hide from you,” Mamdani told supporters in Queens on Tuesday — a crowd that included former FTC chair Lina Khan, former Rep. Jamaal Bowman, and city comptroller Brad Lander, whose co-endorsement helped Mamdani surge past Cuomo.

Most Democrats expected a photo finish on Tuesday, to be settled when voters’ ranked-choice ballots were counted next week. Mamdani’s campaign, which claimed 50,000 volunteers and dominated on the ground, surged turnout in his strongest neighborhoods, found young voters who skipped previous elections, and out-performed in Hispanic and Jewish areas that Cuomo had been expected to win.

That left Mamdani with more than 430,000 votes out of nearly 1 million cast — the most since 1989, when David Dinkins successfully challenged Mayor Ed Koch. He ended the night with a 7-point lead over Cuomo, expected to grow when the second preferences of Democrats who voted for Lander and other progressive candidates were counted. Cuomo, who had been expected to lead the first round, told his supporters that Mamdani “won,” and did not confirm until Thursday that he might remain on the November ballot with the new party line he created as a back-up plan.

If Cuomo stays in the race, Mamdani would face a general election against the former governor, Democrat-turned-independent Mayor Eric Adams (who has a Fight Antisemitism ballot line), Guardian Angels founder and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, and independent Jim Walden.

Democrats grapple with New York’s election

FAIRFAX, Va. – Republicans moved fast after Zohran Mamdani’s victory, linking every Democrat they could to the man who could be America’s most powerful socialist.

“Whatever starts in New York always trickles down to every other Democrat,” Virginia’s GOP said in a Wednesday statement. “If you think Virginia Democrats oppose any of this, think again.”

When Virginia’s Democratic nominee for governor heard that, she laughed.

“That’s a pretty ridiculous linkage,” Spanberger told Semafor after a rally stop in the DC suburbs. “I don’t begin to pretend like I know anything about New York politics, because I’m a Virginian, and I’m focused on Virginia.”

Democrats reacting to the Mamdani win have fit into three camps. First were progressives and socialists, who always supported Mamdani, and celebrated the win without qualifications. “The people are clearly asking for generational change,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told reporters outside the Capitol.

The second camp consisted of Democrats who did not want to endorse or celebrate Mamdani, but saw what he did right. They bought the milk, but not the cow. “Number one, people, just like in November, are still really focused on costs and the economy and their own kitchen table math,” Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin said after a Thursday speech at the Center for American Progress, on her “war plan” for a more electable Democratic Party. “And they’re looking for a new generation of leadership.”

The third, least happy camp was in agony all week — Democrats like Rep. Tom Suozzi, who supported Andrew Cuomo as a break-glass option to save the city, and could not endorse Mamdani, even as Republican trackers with cameras asked them to.

The missing anti-Iran War movement

On Wednesday morning, as a heat wave battered DC, anti-war Democrats in Congress gathered outside the Capitol to promote their War Powers resolution. California Rep. Ro Khanna, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, and a growing group of progressive allies stood together to explain how they could rein in the president.

“These reckless, unconstitutional strikes that President Trump undertook have implications for us, not just in the short term, but in the long term,” said Jayapal. “And if we should learn anything from Iraq, from Afghanistan, from Israel —”

Suddenly, a cameraman fainted from the heat, keeling over and knocking down his gear. The members of Congress paused, called for help, then ended the press conference.

The Iran strikes, whose efficacy is still being debated in DC, have not sparked the sort of anti-war movement that might have been expected a week ago. Most Republicans have adopted the administration’s position, from JD Vance, that the United States was only at “war with Iran’s nuclear program,” not Iran. Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, who had co-sponsored the war powers resolution with Khanna, was not fully bought in. But he said this week that he would pause the resolution, if the ceasefire held between Iran and Israel.

Khanna believed that Democrats were making a mistake by not speaking clearly against the airstrikes now. “The base is very passionately against more endless wars,” he told Semafor. “The anti-war sentiment is strong, not just among a significant portion of the Democratic Party, but among a significant portion of the MAGA base. It is part of building a winning coalition. One thing that will win back young men is to be against spending money on wars overseas, and to spend our tax dollars on creating good jobs here.”

Still, street protests were sparse, and progressive organizing focused on getting a vote on the strikes, getting Congress involved and on record — not condemning the action.

“Too many members of Congress, especially the tough talking Iran hawks on the Republican side — they’re okay with war, but by God, they’re too chicken to vote for it,” Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine said on a Tuesday night call organized by MoveOn. “They don’t want to vote for it, because their constituents would say to them, what in the hell are you thinking?”

A dead congressman picks his successor

FAIRFAX, Va. – The primary to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly, a Democrat who died last month after battling cancer, began in a very hot parking lot.

Early voting was held at the county’s government center, where the 10 candidates for Connolly’s seat set up canopies and tables, shaking hands and giving out literature.

James Walkinshaw’s included a special message, white and blue in the top right corner: “Endorsed by Gerry Connolly.”

To the frustration of other Democrats, Walkinshaw has received an enormous boost from the late congressman; he served as his chief of staff, before following in his footsteps and getting elected to the county board of supervisors. And even after his death, Connolly’s campaign account has published messages of support for Walkinshaw.

“This is exactly what’s wrong with the Democratic Party right now, the idea that a congressional seat is something that can be bequeathed,” said state Del. Irene Shin, one of the lesser-known candidates running for the seat.

New Democratic Oversight leader speaks

House Democrats picked 46-year-old California Rep. Robert Garcia to lead them on the Oversight Committee, in a break from the party’s seniority system. Garcia bested two Democrats with more time in office — Massachusetts’ Stephen Lynch and Maryland’s Kweisi Mfume — as well as Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Tex., whose pugnacious style and promise to impeach Trump didn’t win over colleagues.

“My style of leadership is not exactly what they were looking for,” Crockett told reporters Tuesday morning. Nancy Pelosi, who supported Garcia, said that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had been hasty in calling for Trump’s impeachment over his military strikes in Iran: “No, no, that’s a big threshold to cross.”

Garcia, a former Long Beach mayor who joined the House in 2023, built a broad coalition of colleagues, including the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. His youth was a reminder of why the ranking member job had opened up: The death of the late Gerry Connolly, who defeated Ocasio-Cortez for it while battling cancer.

“I respect seniority,” Garcia told reporters after his win. “I think our party is looking at expanding who’s at that leadership table.”

Republicans instantly went after Garcia on a topic they have committed significant Oversight resources to: Joe Biden’s mental acuity. As a Biden campaign co-chair, Garcia frequently did interviews to defend the president, arguing that a “bad night” on the Atlanta debate stage didn’t represent how he governed. Democrats saw their disinterest in impeaching Trump as a contrast to Republican obsession with the former president.

“We all know what the Republicans on Oversight tried to do in their majority, scandalously and without merit, to President Biden and to Hillary Clinton,” said Rep. Greg Casar, D-Tex.

Steve Inskeep has one of the most recognizable names and voices in the country, greeting millions of Americans every morning since the 2000s. This week, Ben and Max bring on the Morning Edition host to talk about NPR’s battle with the Trump administration, the role of public radio in an overcrowded media landscape, and why local journalism matters more than ever. They also discuss the conflict in Iran — a place that Steve has been to 6 times as a reporter — and whether Americans are less informed about global politics now than they were at the start of his career.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now.

Polls

Republicans have united all but a half-dozen members of Congress behind their tax and spending plan, and Democrats have yet to find an unbusy, non-holiday news cycle to get voters talking about it. Republican message discipline has helped move the public their way on Medicaid work requirements, the part of the bill most often attacked by Democrats. Most independents support it, the only OBBBA cut to welfare spending that’s popular, a complication for the Democratic counter-argument — that the requirements are mostly paperwork, designed to drop people from Medicaid.

After last weekend’s airstrikes in Iran, most Republicans rallied to support them, and Democrats splintered over how to react. Voters were more decisive: They didn’t support the airstrikes and weren’t convinced that they made America safer. Support for the action itself is about as popular as Trump, with the same low share of Democrats and minority of independents in favor. Slightly more than half of Republicans say that the airstrikes will make Iran less of a threat. Every other demographic disagrees. Polling has consistently found younger voters, who don’t remember a time when Israel was seriously threatened with annihilation, more skeptical that it needs American help. That holds up here, with voters under 35 opposing the strikes, by a 2-1 margin. But there is already evidence, from later polls, that voters warmed up when they saw no further military commitment coming from the airstrikes.

Republicans generally blow off Quinnipiac’s polling, which has sometimes underrated the party’s support before an election — especially when Donald Trump is on the ballot. Trump’s approval rating has actually moved up, by 3 points, since the last Quinnipiac poll this month. But none of his decisions in that period have been particularly popular, beyond his Republican base. They’re most satisfied with his handling of immigration: Eighty-six percent of Republicans approve of it overall, 87% approve of sending the National Guard to Los Angeles, 78% approve of sending the Marines, and 77% approve of ICE’s work. Independents (and nearly all Democrats) are cool on all of that, a shift since January, when there was much more optimism about immigration.

Ads

• One Nation, “Steam.” One Nation, one of the Senate GOP’s leadership tax-exempt political groups, is spending $10 million to build support for the One Beautiful Bill Act across swing states. This spot takes on Georgia’s Jon Ossoff, the only Democratic senator up for re-election next year in a state Donald Trump won, for opposing “the working family tax cuts” in the GOP bill. What’s interesting is who doesn’t appear in the ad: Trump. Instead, the ad warns that “party bosses” want Ossoff to stop something that is “not about politics,” but about helping the economy surge ahead.
• Ciattarelli for Governor, “Mikie Made Millions.” The five New Jersey Democrats who lost the gubernatorial nomination to Rep. Mikie Sherrill tried, in their final days, to paint her as unelectable. Their attacks, mostly about the wealth she gained when her husband sold off stock, make it into the GOP nominee’s first negative digital buys. It repeats the stories in the Washington Free Beacon about the $7 million her family made after she got to Congress and the stock trades she made shortly before the pandemic. What it doesn’t use: News clips of Sherrill struggling to describe the trades, which Democrats expect to see again before November.
• Wahls for Iowa, “All Squeal, No Bacon.” Zach Wahls, the last Democrat to enter Iowa’s US Senate primary, raised $400,000 on his first full day as a candidate. Some of that went into this spot, the first by any 2026 candidate, which puts Ernst’s dismissive answer to a Democrat who said people would “die” under Medicaid cuts on air for the first time. (The Senate Democrats’ super PAC put its own spot with that clip on the air days later.) The Medicaid context isn’t even explained; the comment’s part of a short story about Ernst pledging to serve two terms, then preparing to run for a third, portraying her as a would-be reformer who went DC native.

Scooped!

The bipartisan embrace of nuclear energy is one of the great 21st century stories. It wasn’t the reason Andrew Cuomo lost, but his decision to close the facility at Indian Point had few defenders by the time New Yorkers voted this week. Still: the plan for a “Donald J. Trump Advanced Energy and Intelligence Campus” with four nuclear reactors is one of the most ambitious things I’ve ever seen, and I envy Evan Halper and Hannah Natanson at the Washington Post, who scooped it.

Next

• one day until the primary in Virginia’s 11th congressional district
• 20 days until the primary in Arizona’s 7th congressional district
• 132 days until off-year elections
• 493 days until the 2026 midterm elections

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