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The US says it severely damaged Iranian nuclear sites, markets brace for surging oil prices and the ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 23, 2025
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The World Today

  1. US strikes Iran
  2. Oil prices set to jump
  3. Gulf’s balancing act
  4. Big gamble for Trump
  5. NATO agrees on 5%
  6. New Taiwan unity drive
  7. Tesla debuts robotaxis
  8. Reddit eyes eye-scanning Orb
  9. Life-extending drug
  10. Restaurant record battle

Art that resembles trash may be a recession indicator.

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1

US strikes Iran nuclear sites

Damaged buildings near the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center
Damaged buildings near the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. Maxar Technologies/Handout via Reuters

US strikes inflicted “severe damage” on three Iranian nuclear sites, Pentagon officials said Sunday, a day after Washington’s stunning escalation in support of Israel’s conflict against Tehran. US President Donald Trump last week indicated there would be a two-week window for diplomacy before he would decide whether to bomb Iran, but that deadline appears to have been “a smoke screen,” The Atlantic reported. Trump said US bombers “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites, but Pentagon officials said it was unclear whether Tehran still has enrichment capacity. Iran has vowed retaliation, including possible strikes on US bases in the region, as international concerns grow over the risk of a wider war: Later on Sunday, Trump suggested he’s open to regime change in Iran.

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2

Oil markets brace for shock

Largest reserve holders of oil in 2024, in barrels

Oil prices are poised to jump after the US struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, but the long-term impact may be muted, experts said. Oil prices have risen since Israel began attacking Iran, but supplies have remained steady. “The world has enough oil,” S&P analysts wrote. Still, if Iran follows through with a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route, it would severely curb supply and disrupt global markets. Such a move, however, would mostly harm Tehran’s ally China, which buys the vast majority of Iranian oil. Investors are also bracing for a knee-jerk stock selloff Monday, with analysts warning that further escalation could trigger an extended rout.

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3

Region faces balancing act

Donald Trump in Riyadh
Brian Snyder/Reuters

The escalating conflict with Iran presents a challenge for Washington’s Gulf allies, reflecting the region’s shifting balance of power, analysts said. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates want to maintain close ties with the US, but have also sought to mend relations with Iran in recent years. Gulf leaders fear that the conflict will balloon into a regional crisis: If Iran retaliates, it could attack American bases throughout the Middle East, or Tehran could close vital shipping lanes, with vast economic ramifications. In a sign of how the Gulf is approaching the diplomatic tightrope, nations’ official statements following the strikes called for deescalation, but they didn’t directly condemn the US.

For more on the region’s approach to the conflict, subscribe to Semafor Gulf. â†’

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4

Trump’s strikes mark political gamble

New Yorkers demonstrate against war in Iran
Caitlin Ochs/Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s decision to bring the US into another overseas conflict could represent the greatest challenge of his second term, analysts said. The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are a gamble for Trump: He is betting that the attacks will force Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions. But he also risks drawing the US into an extended military operation in the Middle East, something most Americans — including prominent voices in Trump’s MAGA coalition — oppose. Democrats raced to criticize the strikes, while administration officials stressed they were consistent with the president’s opposition to Tehran's nuclear ambitions. “We’re not at war with Iran,” Vice President JD Vance said. “We’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program.”

Subscribe to Semafor’s daily Principals briefing for more on how Democrats and Republicans respond to the conflict. â†’

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5

NATO agrees 5% defense target

Defense spending of several NATO countries as a percent of GDP

NATO members agreed Sunday to increase their national defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a benchmark US President Donald Trump has long advocated for. The deal comes after Spain had threatened to derail a NATO summit beginning Tuesday by blocking the measure, but Madrid dropped its opposition after securing an exemption. Trump has demanded increased NATO spending for years, arguing Europe leans on Washington instead of funding its own defense; Trump recently suggested the US should be exempt from paying more. Yet despite the new commitment and the backdrop of war in the Middle East and Ukraine, several countries, including Canada, France, and Italy, will likely struggle to meet the 5% target, experts said.

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6

Taiwan leader launches unity drive

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te
Ann Wang/Reuters

Taiwan’s leader launched a new effort to promote unity in the face of Chinese aggression. President Lai Ching-te plans to deliver a series of speeches over the next several weeks that will stress Taiwan’s identity as a “sovereign state.” The campaign comes as Lai’s party looks to retake control of Taiwan’s parliament through a vote this week to recall dozens of members of the opposition party. Those lawmakers have faced pushback over efforts to slash government spending, which critics say could weaken Taiwan’s defenses against growing Chinese military threats, Focus Taiwan wrote. Yet Beijing, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province it will eventually absorb, could ramp up its aggression in response to Lai’s heightened rhetoric, experts said.

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Plug

News, but only the good stuff. Introducing Nice News, an easy-to-read daily digest that delivers uplifting, interesting, and intelligent stories. Join over 1.1 million other readers who wake up with a more optimistic mindset — subscribe to Nice News for free.

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7

Tesla rolls out robotaxis

Tesla Robotaxi
Joel Angel Juarez/Reuters

Elon Musk’s Tesla finally launched its robotaxi service Sunday, offering rides in self-driving Model Ys to passengers in Austin, Texas. The launch represents a “clash with reality” for Musk, who has touted robotaxis for nearly a decade but made slow progress, the Financial Times wrote: Robotaxis will test Tesla’s self-driving technology, which relies on cameras positioned around the vehicle, instead of the more expensive lidar and radar sensing technology that industry leader Waymo uses. Tesla has come under regulatory scrutiny amid concerns its systems have caused accidents, and the company is limiting the range of its first autonomous cabs so they don’t navigate challenging intersections.

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Semafor Exclusive
8

Reddit mulling Orb tie-in

World Orb
World

Reddit is considering using eye-scanning orbs to prove a user’s identity online, Semafor reported. The site is exploring a partnership with World, a startup co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman: A user would gaze into an Orb, which would scan their iris, and then issue them a secure and encrypted digital signature. Reddit’s motivation partly lies in curbing artificial intelligence bots masquerading as humans on the platform, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti wrote: Last month, the company’s CEO said it was working “to preserve both the humanness and anonymity of Reddit.” Still, as The New York Times wrote when the first US World storefront opened in May, it is unclear whether most people trust an Orb enough to actually use it.

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9

Drug could extend lifespans

Scientists have identified a cheap, generic drug that appears to have the same life-extending effect as calorie restriction, raising hopes it could improve human longevity. Rapamycin is typically prescribed as an immunosuppressant, but past research hinted at its ability to increase the lifespan of various species. That could make it an attractive alternative to limiting calories, which may help some people live longer but is hard to maintain. Now, scientists analyzed data from 167 animal studies, finding that those on the drug lived longer than those not given the medication. While some among the biohacking community already take rapamycin in a bid to stave off aging, the researchers cautioned that no one should start taking the drug based on the evidence so far.

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10

Madrid restaurants vie for world’s oldest title

Sobrino de BotĂ­n
Brian Adamson/Flickr/CC BY 2.0

Two Madrid eateries are vying for the title of the world’s oldest restaurant. The Guinness Book of World Records declared Sobrino de BotĂ­n, founded in 1725, the oldest. (Ernest Hemingway was a fan; he was so fond of their suckling pig — still served today — that he mentioned it in The Sun Also Rises.) But a tavern called Casa Pedro may be even older. Its signage declares it to be “since 1702,” The Associated Press reported, but there was no proof. The family that owns the restaurant — now in their eighth generation — hired a historian, who has so far unearthed documents confirming its existence as far back as 1750, within striking distance of BotĂ­n’s record. Both venues, unsurprisingly, serve traditional Spanish food.

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Flagging

June 22:

  • Singapore releases its May consumer price index figures.
  • A summit between the European Union and Canada kicks off in Brussels.
  • Japan observes Okinawa Memorial Day.
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Curio
 “Removed Parts: Restored” by Geumhyung Jeong
“Removed Parts: Restored” by Geumhyung Jeong. Courtesy MoMA PS1/Kris Graves

Art that resembles collections of trash and other debris is back in vogue. Several exhibitions across New York, including at MoMA PS1, feature “gather art,” made by “foraging for tossed-out junk,” ArtNews wrote. One assemblage features a broken television set balanced on a dirty rolling chair. Given the provenance of the materials and the dour aesthetic, some critics have argued the style is something of a recession indicator. But far from being pessimists, the movement’s artists “function more like alchemists, transforming the remainders of a declining world into something new altogether.”

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Semafor Spotlight
Christian Klein, Chief Executive Officer, SAP, Germany speakingat the World Economic Forum in 2023.
Faruk Pinjo/World Economic Forum

In March, SAP became Europe’s most highly valued company, having leapfrogged the likes of Novo Nordisk, LVMH, and ASML.

Its market capitalization is still just one-tenth that of Microsoft’s, and Novo has been jostling for the European lead again. But, as SAP CEO Christian Klein told Semafor’s Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson, the company’s success shows legacy tech companies can still dominate in the disruptive era of cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

For more insights from the C suite, subscribe to Semafor Business. â†’

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