Principals

1. Trump weighs Iran options
2. Navy dissent on Israel help
3. Russia sanctions delay
4. Senate megabill timeline
5. Data protection bill gets boost
6. Fed meets
7. Virginia Dems vote
8. Rogers’ Trump confidence

PDB: Lee deletes Minnesota posts

Trump meets Pakistan’s Army chief amid Mideast tensions … Iran’s supreme leader to give televised address … Brent crude futures ⬇️ 1.20%

Trump considers Iran options

President Donald Trump is considering whether to join Israel’s bombardment of Iran, including possibly targeting its tightly guarded Fordo nuclear enrichment site. Trump had promised to withdraw Washington from foreign entanglements and prioritized securing a deal to neuter Iran’s nuclear program, but now sees an opportunity to destroy it militarily, per CNN. Notably, the US is the only country with the war planes and bombs capable of destroying Iran’s underground enrichment sites. The debate has exposed a divide in Trump’s MAGA coalition, and some analysts argued that military means were unlikely to end Iranian nuclear efforts.The conflict entered its sixth day with the entire region on edge.

Gulf states condemned Israel’s strikes and see security and economic risks from a wider conflict, Faisal J. Abbas, editor-in-chief of the Riyadh-based Arab News, writes in a Semafor column. Oil prices eased today, after spiking on Tuesday as Trump convened advisers in the Situation Room.

Navy dissented from moving assets to Middle East

The Navy dissented from US plans to shift assets toward the conflict between Israel and Iran, complaining that the move would disrupt scheduled maintenance cycles by putting two carrier groups in the theater, two Pentagon officials said. The Navy’s complaint didn’t reflect specific concerns about aiding Iran operations, but rather long-running worries that the service is overstretched. “The Navy’s ship maintenance schedule is very delicate,” one of the officials said. “Even a few days’ delay has a knock-on effect that extends years into the future.” Semafor reported Saturday that a senior Trump appointee, Defense Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, expressed separate reservations about shifting resources to the Middle East; he’s part of a Republican bloc that wants to refocus the Pentagon toward confronting China. The Navy this week shifted a second carrier to the region, a sign that Trump does not share aides’ concerns.

— Ben Smith and Shelby Talcott

Russia sanctions take a back seat

The Senate is pushing off plans to sanction Russia and its trading partners until at least July, as war between Iran and Israel and Republicans’ massive tax cuts bill blot out the popular bipartisan legislation, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant and Burgess Everett report.

Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., are zeroing in on a revised version of their bill that would shield Ukraine’s allies from some sanctions for trading with Russia and make other technical changes. But their hopes of getting a bill through the Senate this month have withered as other priorities take precedence. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said that a “July timeframe” for Russia sanctions was most likely at this point, while Graham acknowledged the chamber is “going to have to wait a bit.” He added: “Iran is center stage, but sooner rather than later.”

Senate GOP hopes for deal next week

Senators are furiously lobbying Republican leadership and Finance Chair Mike Crapo to make changes to the chamber’s megabill, hoping to clinch deals on everything from Medicaid to energy tax credits in time to start debate by early next week. “Our plan is to try releasing something at the beginning of next week, and start the process of getting the vote-a-rama and everything set up by the end of next week,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., told Semafor. That’s a herculean effort, given all that’s going on. And Trump is staying involved, speaking to Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., on Tuesday afternoon about the tax bill’s potentially harmful impact on rural hospitals. “He said: ‘That doesn’t sound good,’” Hawley said, relaying the conversation with the president. Trump reiterated he doesn’t want any Medicaid cuts beyond what the House did last month, Hawley said.

— Burgess Everett

Bid to hide lawmakers’ data gains steam

Long-stalled legislation that would allow lawmakers to remove their personal data from the internet is again gathering speed on the Hill after two Minnesota lawmakers and their spouses were shot at their homes. Sen. Amy Klobuchar raised her proposal on the topic with Sen. Ted Cruz, which the pair tried to attach to defense legislation in 2023, on Tuesday during senators’ briefing on the shootings, Sen. Elizabeth Warren told Semafor. “I believe we have growing support,” Klobuchar told reporters later. Her comments come after House Republicans floated the same idea this weekend. “We do need to look at doing something like that,” Rep. Barry Loudermilk, who was targeted in two separate shootings, told Semafor. Court documents unsealed this week allege that the suspect in the Minnesota shootings left a notebook in his car listing almost a dozen “internet-based people search engines.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Fed expected to hold steady

The Federal Reserve is expected to draw Trump’s ire today by leaving interest rates untouched despite cooling economic indicators like falling Treasury yields and shrinking retail sales. That’s because the central bank is still waiting for proof of how the president’s tariffs could affect the economy — after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that import prices were unchanged in May. The Trump administration was quick to tout that data, as well as an internal analysis of real wages for hourly workers, as proof its economic bets are paying off. “You can’t find the tariff impact — I mean, there’s no evidence of tariffs anywhere,” Joe Lavorgna, who was appointed to serve as counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this month, told Semafor. He added that “if I’m the Federal Reserve … I think they have to be pretty happy.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Virginia Dems go down to wire

Virginia Democrats were still counting votes in their close statewide primaries on Tuesday, after Jay Jones narrowly won their nomination for attorney general. Jones, a former state legislator, narrowly prevailed over Shannon Taylor, a county prosecutor from suburban Richmond. She’d run as the “only Democrat” who’d prosecuted a Klansman, while Jones ran as a civil rights advocate. Republicans saw a winnable match-up with incumbent Jason Miyares if they could make the race about Jones’ progressive record. State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi was leading the vote for lieutenant governor, but the race was too close to call. She narrowly led former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse, thanks partly to her landslide win in Stoney’s city. Turnout was on track to match the primary for governor four years ago, a sign of Democratic enthusiasm that included recruiting candidates in every legislative district.

— David Weigel

GOP seeks to avoid Michigan primary

Former Michigan GOP Rep. Mike Rogers’ campaign is feeling confident about its ability to keep Trump on his side and avoid a Trump-backed challenge from Rep. Bill Huizenga. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and a host of Senate Republicans endorsed Rogers already, attempting to avoid a contested primary — and some close to the Rogers campaign took that as a positive sign with regard to the president. “There’s going to be an effort to make sure [Huizenga] stays in the House, where he should stay,” a source familiar with the campaign said on Tuesday. “We have a House to defend here. And it’s very important to the president.” The chair of House Republicans’ campaign arm said recently that he’d prefer Huizenga to stay but was confident Republicans would hold the seat, adding: “It’s not something I’ll spend a lot of energy on.”

— Burgess Everett

Can we reconnect a generation? A mental health crisis is gripping young people, with rates of depression, anxiety, and loneliness rising. As social bonds fray and digital life deepens isolation, experts are sounding the alarm and demanding action.

Join Daniel Zoltani, Executive Director of the Whole Foods Market Foundation; Sara DeWitt, Senior Vice President and General Manager of PBS KIDS; January Contreras, Former Assistant Secretary for the Administration for Children and Families, US Department of Health and Human Services; and Steve Bullock, Former Governor of Montana, as Semafor explores the complex drivers of youth wellbeing, highlighting opportunities to rebuild social ties, foster resilience, and develop lasting strategies to improve the mental health of young people.

July 16, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Blindspot: Omar and Russia

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., criticized the US, saying it is becoming “one of the worst countries” under the Trump administration’s policies.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Trump administration disbanded an interagency group convened to find ways to pressure Russia to accelerate peace talks with Ukraine, Reuters reported.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The House-passed rescissions package faces a difficult road in the Senate, where the Appropriations Committee — led by a skeptic of the package, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine — may hold a hearing on it as early as next week.

Playbook: President Trump is leaning toward US involvement in Israel’s campaign, but the White House isn’t talking about toppling the government. “It’s not regime change. It’s taking out their nukes,” a Trump administration official said.

Axios: Trump spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, as the Israeli defense establishment believes the US is likely to join in attacking Iran.

WaPo: Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J., and former Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger — both Democratic nominees for governor in their states — are “actually real friends.”

White House

• President Trump plans to grant ByteDance another extension to find a buyer for TikTok.
• Sergio Gor, the high-ranking White House aide tasked with vetting other staffers, hasn’t been fully vetted himself. — NY Post

Congress

• Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, deleted social media posts about the fatal shooting of a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband, after being confronted by Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn., earlier this week.
• Eighteen Senate Democrats helped Republicans pass a bill to create rules for stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to assets like the dollar, in a 68-30 vote, sending it to the House. Sens. Rand Paul and Josh Hawley were the only GOP members to vote no.
• An updated Congressional Budget Office tally found that the House-passed reconciliation package would add $3.4 trillion to the federal debt.

Outside the Beltway

• Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass lifted the curfew she had imposed in the downtown area during protests against immigration raids.

Economy

• Sentiment among US homebuilders dropped to near pandemic levels.

Courts

• New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Brad Lander was arrested — and later released — after linking arms with a target of federal immigration authorities at an immigration court.
• A federal judge blocked a Trump administration policy preventing transgender and nonbinary passport holders from renewing or correcting their documents.

National Security

• US intelligence says that Iran is as many as three years away from producing a nuclear weapon, despite Israel’s warnings last week as it launched a preemptive strike on Iran. — CNN

Media

• Last month, more Americans streamed TV than watched via cable or traditional broadcast. — NYT

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

And Graph Massara, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

Russian ambassador to the United Nations Vassily Nebenzia checks his planned remarks during a UN Security Council meeting in New York.