Principals

1. Carney meets Trump
2. GOP recruitment worries
3. Republicans on Alcatraz
4. Maine gov race
5. Dems’ bad polls
6. Estonia on Russia
7. Global rundown

PDB: Trump puts more pressure on universities

Bessent testifies before House … US reports trade balance … S&P 500 futures ⬇️ 0.68%

Carney faces early test in Washington

Canada’s new prime minister heads to the White House today, an early test of Mark Carney’s leadership after he ran successfully on taking on President Donald Trump’s “betrayal.” Top of mind will be trade, as Canada looks to ease tariffs and broker a broader economic agreement. “Do not expect white smoke out of that meeting,” Carney said last week, lowering the stakes for his visit. The former banker signaled to the BBC that access to Canada’s critical minerals might be on the table. Carney has some leverage: US businesses on the Canadian border are struggling intensely under the tariffs, and despite Trump’s rhetoric, Canada is a top US trading partner, with total goods trade exceeding $762 billion last year. Trump hinted to NBC he would bring up annexing Canada with Carney. “They need us. We don’t need them,” he said.

What Kemp’s pass means for Senate GOP

Republicans still have the upper hand in the 2026 battle for the Senate, with Democrats needing to pick up four seats to win a majority. But it’s not getting any easier for the GOP, either, after Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp declined to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, joining former N.H. Gov. Chris Sununu in passing on a potential GOP pick-up. “We’re disappointed about that,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said of Kemp. NRSC Chair Tim Scott made no secret of his hopes to land Kemp; an NRSC spokeswoman said “Republicans have a number of strong candidates who can build a winning coalition” in Georgia. Among those now weighing a bid: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Republicans also must sort through potentially messy primaries: Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming is challenging Sen. Bill Cassidy, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging Sen. John Cornyn, and Michigan could be contested.

— Burgess Everett

Republicans like Trump’s Alcatraz idea

Congressional Republicans don’t know how it will work — but Trump’s proposal to reopen Alcatraz is gaining some steam with them. “It’s an interesting idea. It’s surrounded by, I think, sharks in the bay,” Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., told Semafor, adding: “I don’t have the details yet but it’s not a bad idea to put some of the worst offenders” there. Trump aides say the idea isn’t new, though it’s unclear exactly when it came about. The concept may have started with Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son: In January, he floated the idea on X after the president announced an executive order to prepare Guantanamo Bay to house migrants. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., called it a “great idea” but wasn’t quite sure if Congress would need to send more funding to the project to get it done.

— Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott

Angus King III runs for gov

In a fascinating test of where Mainers stand on political families, Angus King III is launching a gubernatorial campaign as a Democrat with a twist: an endorsement from his independent father, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports this morning. “That’s a little bit like asking Wayne Gretzky’s kid as he steps out on the ice: ‘Do you think it helped you to have Wayne Gretzky as your dad?’ The answer is: Of course,” King said, when asked about whether his father’s support would be an asset or drag. The race to succeed Democratic Gov. Janet Mills brings a little more added intrigue than usual: Mills made national news earlier this year by defying Trump’s efforts to bar transgender athletes from high school sports. King III said it’s “complicated” but “there is no circumstance where an adult should be bullying a kid.”

Democrats whistle past their bad polls

Democratic leaders like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer keep drawing attention to the president’s sagging poll numbers, but have no answer on why they’ve gotten even less support. Party pollsters worry that their brand is too associated with the political establishment. “Voters don’t necessarily trust that Democrats are going to stand up for them,” said Ian Smith, the director of polling and analytics at the Democratic firm Navigator Research. “Even folks that are seeing pain from what Trump’s doing see some logic in it.” The optimistic case for Democrats, from Split Ticket’s Lakshya Jain, is that they’re only now about as weak as the average party after a loss. “The party out of power has a stink on them for a while,” he said. Democrats will confront one of their nagging problems tomorrow, when Joe and Jill Biden appear on The View.

— David Weigel

Estonian official: Time to pressure Putin

Estonia’s foreign minister says it’s time for the US and Europe to work together to push Russian President Vladimir Putin “to the corner” after Trump’s overtures revealed the Russian leader to be unserious about Ukraine peace talks. “Trump has offered Putin the way out … and Putin is not ready to take it,” Margus Tsahkna told Semafor in an interview Monday on Capitol Hill, ahead of meetings with bipartisan lawmakers. Tsahkna is calling for the US and Europe to increase pressure on Russia in the form of sanctions, and to move forward with seizing frozen Russian assets in order to aid Ukraine’s eventual recovery. “Putin understands only the strong position, only the pressure,” he said. While he didn’t fault Trump for engaging with Russia, Tsahkna said it’s clear that Putin is “playing with” the US and Europe.

— Morgan Chalfant

Global rundown

Friedrich Merz fell short in a parliamentary vote to become Germany’s chancellor, a stunning defeat that threw his governing plan and coalition into chaos … The European Union will announce plans to end its reliance on Russian gas by the end of 2027 … Plunging oil prices are putting pressure on Saudi Arabia.

Last year, global employee engagement fell, costing the world economy $438 billion in lost productivity.

The primary cause was a drop in manager engagement, but it’s not going to stop there. Manager engagement affects team engagement, which affects productivity. Business performance — and ultimately GDP growth — is at risk if executive leaders do not address manager breakdown.

Examine the recent decline in worker engagement and wellbeing, its likely causes and the most promising solutions through Gallup’s State of the Global Workplace Report.

Blindspot: Cognitive test and conservative lawsuit

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Joe Biden’s aides considered but ultimately decided against having the then-president take a cognitive test last year ahead of the election, according to a new book from journalists Tyler Pager, Josh Dawsey, and Isaac Arnsdorf.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Stephen Miller-founded America First Legal Foundation recently sued Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Francis Brooke and Ben Napier, two longtime aides to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, are departing his operation.

Playbook: The White House isn’t rolling out the red carpet for Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. “Just another world leader coming to visit. One of many,” one White House official said.

Axios: President Trump’s latest tariff threat on foreign films risks “retaliatory actions in international markets, where American film studios make the bulk of their box office revenue.”

White House

• A White House spokesman said that “no final decisions” have been made on imposing tariffs on foreign films, after President Trump said he had authorized his administration to impose 100% duties on Sunday. — The Hollywood Reporter

Congress

• Senate Democrats are hosting New York Times columnist Ezra Klein and pollster David Shor at their retreat on Wednesday. — Axios
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said she won’t seek Gerry Connolly’s seat as the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, and will stay on Energy and Commerce instead.

Outside the Beltway

• Kamala Harris and husband Doug Emhoff made an appearance at Monday night’s Met Gala in New York.

Ads

• The Elon Musk-backed nonprofit group Building America’s Future is rolling out mobile billboards calling on Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to help the White House “secure the northern border NOW.” The billboard, the details of which were first shared with Semafor, will circle the White House today via a truck, as Carney meets with President Trump.

Business

• OpenAI reversed plans to transform into a for-profit organization.
• Dollmaker Mattel expects to raise prices to account for tariffs.

Economy

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to reassure global investors of President Trump’s tariff strategy and broader agenda during an appearance at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills.

Education

• Education Secretary Linda McMahon sent a letter to Harvard on Monday night notifying the school that it “is not eligible for any new grants from the federal government until they demonstrate responsible management of the university,” a senior administration official said.
• The Education Department is warning universities it will stop offering them money for future student loans if their borrowers don’t pay them back. — WSJ
• The administration also unveiled its consent decree for Columbia University, demanding “viewpoint diversity” in faculty and that the school stop considering race in admissions. — WSJ

Courts

• Trump administration lawyers asked a federal judge to drop a lawsuit by conservative states seeking to ban the abortion pill mifepristone.

National Security

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth used Signal extensively for official Pentagon business, “engaging in at least a dozen separate chats.” — WSJ

Immigration

• The Trump administration plans to pay immigrants in the US illegally $1,000 to voluntarily leave the country.
• US intelligence agencies said in a memo last month that they do not believe the Venezuelan government is controlling the Tren de Aragua gang, undercutting the argument the White House has used to justify speedy deportations under a wartime law. — NYT

Transportation

• Air traffic controllers at Newark Airport lost radio and radar communications with all planes for 90 seconds during a technical failure last week. — Bloomberg
• GlobalX Air, one of the airlines the Trump administration is using for deportations, was apparently hacked. — 404

Foreign Policy

• The Trump administration has asked various countries, including Angola and Equatorial Guinea, to accept migrants as part of its mass deportation efforts. — CBS

Media

• FCC Chair Brendan Carr reiterated that his agency could pull CBS’ broadcast license, describing it as a “penalty,” not a threat.

Principals Team

Edited by Morgan Chalfant, deputy Washington editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor

And Graph Massara, copy editor

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Kadia Goba, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, David Weigel

DC Mayor Muriel Bowser looks on as President Donald Trump announces the NFL draft will be held in Washington.