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Dangote’s cement cracks, Kenya’s jobs up, Ethiopia’s bank licenses, Joel Embiid͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
sunny Gaborone
snowstorm Antwerp
thunderstorms Yaoundé
rotating globe
May 4, 2023
semafor

Africa

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Alexis Akwagyiram
Alexis Akwagyiram

Hi! Welcome to Semafor Africa where we dig into some of the biggest stories around the continent three times a week.

Many African governments are looking for ways to add value to their mineral resources. It’s a trend that the Semafor Africa team has reported on diligently — it’s one of our obsessions. For the most part we’ve focused on the push to benefit from metals used to produce electric vehicle batteries, be it Zimbabwe’s decision to ban raw lithium exports and encourage local processing or AI-powered mining in a Zambian copper mine. In the latest such move, Mozambique today announced that it plans to set up an electric vehicle battery plant in the country. But, long before clean energy became a force in African policy-making, Botswana pioneered an approach through which it benefited from its natural resources.

Botswana has a five-decade partnership with diamond miner De Beers that has underpinned the southern African country’s recent economic prosperity. But Botswana has made clear that this wasn’t enough. It wants to secure a greater share of revenues generated by the country’s natural resources. In this edition, my colleague Yinka Adegoke explores Botswana’s drive to move down the diamond value chain.

Elsewhere: we look at Kenyan employment figures, Ethiopia’s much sought-after banking licenses and I text with the head of a pan-African industry body championing private investment into the continent.

Need to Know
Reuters/Feisal Omar

🇸🇴 Somalia will conduct its first national census in 48 years to gather vital data on population and the state of the economy. The Somalia National Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday that the 2024/25  census would be conducted in partnership with the UN. Previous attempts to conduct a census stalled due to political instability and the absence of a centralized government. The census will cover all regions, including displaced people and refugees.

🇪🇹 Ethiopia plans to issue three to five licenses to foreign investors looking to enter the country’s banking sector, the central bank’s vice governor said on Wednesday. Previously dominated by the state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, the sector has been eyed by foreign investors for some time. The move is part of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s long-stated ambition to open up the economy by encouraging foreign investment inflows.

🇧🇫 Soldiers alleged to be from Burkina Faso’s army massacred nearly 150 people in the northern village of Karma village late last month, according to Amnesty International. An investigation has been opened by the prosecutor in Ouahigouya, the provincial capital. The army, which has fought Islamist insurgents in the country since 2015, has not responded to media requests for comment on claims that the attackers wore military uniforms.

🇲🇿 Mozambique’s government plans to set up an electric vehicle battery plant to meet growing demand for clean energy, China’s state news agency Xinhua reports. It quotes the Mozambican transport minister, Mateus Magala, as saying the country is “thinking of introducing electric vehicles” and wants to start assembling electric buses in the country next year. “For that we need batteries, and we have raw materials to produce batteries,” he said.

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Stat

The year-on-year decline in revenue for the first quarter of 2023 at the Nigeria business of Dangote Cement, the flagship subsidiary of the conglomerate owned by Africa’s wealthiest man, Aliko Dangote. The cement manufacturer ended March this year with 280.3 billion naira ($609 million) compared to 321.9 billion naira a year ago, marking its first revenue decline from one first quarter to another since 2019. The company said Nigeria’s cash crunch and uncertainty around the February general elections “negatively impacted” the volume of cement sales and “limited our ability to maximize production.”

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Yinka Adegoke

Botswana wants to disrupt the global diamond business

THE NEWS

Reuters:/Siphiwe Sibeko

Botswana’s acquisition of a 24% stake in a Belgian diamond company is one of the most ambitious attempts by an African country to move beyond extracting minerals to adding more value.

The three-year old HB Antwerp is worth  “hundreds of millions” of dollars, co-founder Rafael Papismedov told Semafor Africa. The investment will help the company open a new facility in Botswana and hire about 350 more people by 2026.

“Diamonds remain the mainstay of our economy,” said Botswana’s Minister of Minerals Lefoko Moagi, speaking during the announcement of the partnership in late March. “And indications are that they will remain so for the foreseeable future.”

The diamond sector accounts for some 20% of Botswana’s GDP and over 90% of its foreign export earnings and just over 30% of government revenue.

Botswana’s government is also keen for more transparency using HB’s proprietary digital platform to be able to trace diamonds from source to the consumer. “The legacy of the diamond industry is that everything is built on trust and a handshake,” Papismedov told Semafor Africa. “As disruptors we say don’t trust, verify.”

YINKA’S VIEW

As the world’s second largest diamond producer, Botswana is already well-established within the global diamond supply chain but not just because it has some of the world’s highest quality gems. The government already has a joint venture with the world’s second largest diamond manufacturer, De Beers and also owns a 15% stake in the company.

Botswana’s president, Mokgweetsi Masisi, has suggested he is prepared to upend a decades-long diamond mining arrangement with De Beers unless the industry giant improves its terms. The current 10-year license deal, which ends in June, entitles Botswana to buy up to 25% of the diamonds mined in their joint venture, Debswana. Industry insiders speculate that Botswana wants to push for closer to 50-50. Botswana earns around $4.5 billion per year in sales, taxes and royalties from its partnership with De Beers.

While the HB partnership is exciting and progressive in an industry not known for being exciting nor progressive, especially in Africa, it’s a relatively small deal in real terms. Paul Zimnisky, a diamond industry analyst, sees some elements of the HB Antwerp deal as “posturing” by Botswana to help push a better deal over the line with De Beers.

But Zimnisky agrees that Botswana is serious about improving transparency and moving down the value chain like more African countries are trying to do. Zimbabwe (lithium), DR Congo (cobalt, copper), and Zambia (copper) have all talked in recent months about more downstream processing taking place in their countries or even producing the electric vehicle batteries themselves in Africa.

But India still controls about 95% of the rough diamond processing market. “Traditionally it’s been difficult to move down the supply chain to beat them on quality and price,” Zimnisky said.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Botswana and other diamond miners have a limited amount of time to earn their maximum advantage. “At some point, more lab-grown diamonds will be sold than naturals,” said diamond analyst Edahn Golan in a research note published in March.

THE VIEW FROM JOHANNESBURG

With the diamond industry dominated by De Beers and Russia’s Alrosa, smaller industry players have had to consider merging. “I think it’s healthy for an industry to have smaller and bigger players, but I think the multitude of single-asset companies is difficult,” one South African mining CEO told Reuters in February.

NOTABLE

  • “We now know how the diamond industry operates. We used to receive 10% of the stake, but now, under my leadership, we are receiving 25%.” Voice of America reports on how Botswana President Masisi pushed for a tough deal with De Beers in a bid for more favorable terms.
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Evidence

Kenya’s formal employment sector added over 100,000 jobs in the private and public sectors in 2022. Growth in the employment sector signals gradual economic recovery post-COVID against the backdrop of rising global inflation, according to a report released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. The report noted that manufacturing, agriculture, and repair of motor vehicles were among the leading industries that spurred growth in private-sector employment.


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One Good Text

This week the African Private Capital Association (AVCA) gathered investors who collectively manage some $1.5 trillion in assets at its annual conference in Cairo. AVCA CEO Abi Mustapha-Maduakor text us from the sidelines of the event.

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Outro
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Cameroonian-born Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers became only the second African player to win the NBA’s coveted Most Valuable Player award since Nigerian-born Hakeem Olajuwon of the Houston Rockets won it in the 1993-94 season. Embiid, 29, came to basketball late at 15 but the power forward has made up time with a rapid rise, which has seen him come second in MVP voting for the last two seasons. As a teenager, the 7-foot-5-inch Embiid was discouraged from pursuing his early love of football for being too tall but soon after was invited to a basketball camp in Yaoundé run by NBA Cameroonian veteran Luc Mbah a Moute. Embiid did so well he was soon on his way to school in Florida and within a few years made it to the top league.

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— Yinka, Alexis, Marché Arends, Alexander Onukwue, and Muchira Gachenge



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